Setting Performance Standards: Common Core Regents Exams In Algebra I .

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Setting Performance Standards:Common Core Regents Exams inAlgebra I and ELABoard of RegentsJune 23, 2014EngageNY.org

The Bottom Line New York has completed the fourth year of a 12-yearCommon Core phase-in. The Class of 2022: Had just completed kindergarten when the Common Core wasadopted by the Board in summer 2010;Was enrolled in third grade when student progress on theCommon Core was first measured in spring 2013;Will generally take the Common Core Algebra I Regents Exam infive years (2019), the Common Core ELA Regents Exam in sevenyears (2021), and graduate in eight years (2022). The Board will consider cut scores required for passingCommon Core Regents Exams over this transition period. For our students and their teachers, these cut scores arejust one component of a rigorous and relevant course ofstudy for the remaining eight years of the phase-in.EngageNY.org2

Domains of College and CareerReadinessDefines the academic knowledgeand skills students need to besuccessful in college andcareers.Specifies the noncognitive, socio-emotionalknowledge and skills thathelp students successfullytransition from high school tocollege or careers.Describes the careerspecific opportunitiesfor students to gain theknowledge, skills, andcompetencies they needto pursue and succeed in theirchosen career.EngageNY.org3

Completion vs. ReadinessDefining What Our Students Need for SuccessNew York's 4-year high school graduation rate is 74.9% for All Studentshowever, the gaps are disturbing.June 2013 Graduation RateGraduation under Current Requirements(Completion)Calculated College and Career Ready*(Readiness)% Graduating% GraduatingAll Students74.9All Students37.2American Indian62.2American Indian21.3Asian/Pacific Islander80.6Asian/Pacific 18.0White86.5White50.4English Language Learners31.4English Language Learners5.9Students with Disabilities48.7Students with Disabilities5.4*Students graduating with at least a score of 75 on Regents English and 80 on a Math Regents, which correlates withsuccess in first-year college courses.Source: NYSED Office of Information and Reporting ServicesEngageNY.org4

2013 National Grade 12 NAEPResults38%39%Grade 12 ReadingGrade 12 MathGrade 12 ReadingGrade 12 Math These data reflect the percentage of students likely to possessthe academic knowledge and skills necessary for college.Source: http://nationsreportcard.gov/reading math g12 2013/#/preparednessEngageNY.org5

Why Readiness Matters –College Remediation in NYSOver 50% of students in NYS two-year institutions of higher education takeat least one remedial course.Remediation Rates for First-time 30.0%2009-102010-1120.0%2011-1210.0%0.0%All Institutions2-Year Institution4-Year InstitutionSource: NYSED Administrative Data for all Public, Independent and Proprietary 2- and 4-year institutions of higher educationEngageNY.org6

Remedial EnrollmentFirst-Time, Full-Time Freshman, Fall CUNYCommunityColleges15,44355.6%19.7%20.5%CUNY leges39,39939.4%21.3%29.5%SUNY 4-yearColleges**17,3297.4%1.9%4.7%*CUNY policy does not allow students entering bachelor’s programs to enroll in remedial courses. The remedial enrollments at thesenior colleges represent students enrolled in associate programs offered at three CUNY Senior Colleges.** Most remediation in the SUNY system occurs at community colleges with the exception of a small percentage of students in thehigher education opportunity programs offered at four-year institutions.EngageNY.org7

Higher Education EndorsesCommon Core SUNY Board of Trustees passed a resolution in May2014 endorsing the Common Core, citing the need tobetter prepare the next generation of SUNY studentsand decrease the need for remediation. In June 2014, 61 SUNY Presidents, the SUNYChancellor, the CUNY Chancellor joined over 150College Presidents from across the nation to committheir support to Common Core standards andassessments that measure the student progress onthe Common Core.EngageNY.org8

“The Common Core Standards raise the bar foreducators and students, and in today’scompetitive and increasingly global economy,anything less would be a disservice to ouryouth.”Nancy L. Zimpher, SUNY ChancellorEngageNY.org9

Why Readiness Matters –Labor Market Is More DemandingA post-secondary education is the“Passport to the American Dream” Of the projected 47 million job openings between 20092018, nearly two-thirds will require workers to have atleast some post-secondary education – and experts saythis percentage will only increase. 14 million job openings will go to people with anassociate’s degree or occupational certificate and pay asignificant premium over many jobs open to those withjust a high school degree.Sources: Pathways to Prosperity Project, Harvard University, February 2011; Georgetown Center on Education and the Workforce, Help Wanted: Projections of Jobs and EducationRequirements Through 2018, June 2010.EngageNY.org10

Why Readiness Matters –Earnings and UnemploymentUnemployment Rate By Degree: 20112.4%Doctorate2.5%Professional Degree3.6%4.9%6.8%8.7%9.4%14.1%Average 7.6%Median Annual Earnings by Educational Degree: 2011 86,580 80,652Masters 65,676Bachelors 54,756Associate 39,936Some College, No Degree 37,338HS Diploma 33,176No HS Diploma 23,452Average 41,444Education pays in higher overall earnings and lower unemployment rates.SOURCE: 2011 Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population SurveyEngageNY.org11

Regents Reform Agenda Implementing Common Core standardsand developing curriculum andassessments aligned to these standardsto prepare students for success incollege and the workplace. Supporting instructional data systemsthat measure student success and informteacher and principals how they canimprove their practice in real time. Recruiting, developing, retaining, andrewarding effective teachers andprincipals. Turning around the lowest-achievingschools.Highly EffectiveSchool LeadersHighly EffectiveTeachersCollege andCareer ReadyStudentsEngageNY.org12

What is the Common Core? The development of the Common Core was a stateled effort to establish a shared set of cleareducational standards. 42 states and the District of Columbia are implementing theCommon Core* The Common Core Standards are the first learningstandards to be back-mapped from the skills andknowledge students need to succeed in college andcareers, grade-by-grade all the way back tokindergarten. The Common Core Standards are benchmarked tointernational standards and informed by the bestevidence and research.* In addition to the 42 states that fully adopted the Common Core, Minnesota adopted the Common Core English Language Arts standards.EngageNY.org13

Common Core Curriculum,Instruction, and Assessments Common Core curriculum, instruction, andassessments are rigorous and focus onpriority knowledge and skills to ensure Collegeand Career Readiness.6 Shifts in Mathematics6 Shifts in ELA/LiteracyBalancing informational and literary textBuilding knowledge in the disciplinesStaircase of complexityText-based answersWriting from sourcesAcademic vocabularyFocusCoherenceFluencyDeep understandingApplicationsDual intensityEngageNY.org14

NYS Educator Involvement in NYSCommon Core AssessmentsNYS Educators are represented on the following panels: New York State Content Advisory Panels Spans early childhood and P12 through CUNY, SUNY and CICU faculty Item Development, Item Review, Final Form ReviewPerformance Standards (cut scores) Teachers, faculty and district-levelThese panels are informing: College and Career Ready Determinations Test specifications, policies, and item development NYS policy-level and grade-level performance leveldescriptions Setting performance standardsEngageNY.org1515

Common Core Regents DevelopmentEvery item: Developed from scratch by NYS-certified teachers tomeasure Common Core Learning Standards Field-tested Reviewed multiple times in development cycle bymultiple NYS-Certified Teachers Meets industry best practice for item quality, fairnessand accessibility Meets rigorous criteria developed by NYSED Educator participation opportunities: tml#teacher-opEngageNY.org16

Common Core in New York2010: Board of Regents adopted Common Core2013: Common Core Assessments administered in Grades 3-8English Language Arts (ELA) and Math2014: Roll-out of Common Core Regents Exams begins June 2014: Algebra I (ELA offered, but not required)June 2015: Geometry (ELA offered, but not required)June 2016: Algebra II and ELA (required for 1st time)Class of 2017: First cohort of high school graduates required to passCommon Core Regents Exams for graduation at the current score of65 (partial proficiency).Class of 2022: First cohort of high school graduates required to passCommon Core Regents Exams for graduation at the aspirationalcollege- and career ready score (proficiency).Transition to New York Common Core Assessments is a12-year phase-inEngageNY.org17

Regents Common CoreTransition FlexibilityCommon Core rollout in high school contains three features toensure that students have every opportunity to graduate duringthis transition period. The initial group of students required to pass a Common Core Regents Exam (thisyear’s 9th graders in ELA and any student first enrolled in Algebra this year) is notexpected to graduate until June 2017 or later, seven years after the standards wereadopted in 2010;During the first year of test rollout, students enrolled in Common Core courses willhave the option to take the old test in addition to the new test and have the higherscore count for grading and other purposes; andThe Department intends to maintain a zero to 100 point scale and distinctperformance standards (or cut scores) that are comparable to the current 65 RegentsExam cut score for graduation purposes (Performance Level 3) and an aspirationalcollege- and career-readiness cut score (Performance Level 4). As a result, weexpect that the percentage of students passing (for graduation purposes) the newCommon Core Regents Exams will likely be similar to the pass rates on existingRegents Exams at a score of 65.EngageNY.org18

Full Implementation for theClass of 2022 The Board’s intent is to phase in over time thegraduation requirement to demonstrate proficiencyon the Common Core standards in high schoolcourses. Specifically, the class of 2022 would be the firstgroup of students required to pass Common CoreRegents Exams (ELA and one exam in math) atthe level of meeting Common Core course-levelexpectations (i.e., Level 4 of five levels).EngageNY.org19

Performance LevelsPerformance Levels on Common Core Regents ExamsLevel 5: Exceeds Common Core expectationsLevel 4: Meets Common Core expectations(First required for Regents Diploma purposes with the Class of 2022)Level 3: Partially meets Common Core expectations(Required for current Regents Diploma purposes. We expect comparablepercentages of students to attain Level 3 or above as do students who pass currentRegents Exams (2005 Standards) with a score of 65 or above)Level 2 (Safety Net): Partially meets Common Core expectations(Required for Local Diploma purposes. We expect comparable percentages ofstudents to attain Level 2 or above as do students who pass current Regents Exams(2005 Standards) with a score of 55 or above)Level 1: Does not demonstrate Knowledge and Skills for Level 2EngageNY.org20

Performance Levels 2 and 3The standard setting process for these performancelevels was designed to maintain continuity withprior-year passing rates.Level 3: Partially meets Common Core expectations(Required for current Regents Diploma purposes. We expect comparablepercentages of students to attain Level 3 or above as do students who passcurrent Regents Exams (2005 Standards) with a score of 65 or above)Level 2 (Safety Net): Partially meets Common Core expectations(Required for Local Diploma purposes. We expect comparable percentagesof students to attain Level 2 or above as do students who pass currentRegents Exams (2005 Standards) with a score of 55 or above)EngageNY.org21

Performance Levels 4 and 5The standard setting process for theseperformance levels was based on educatorjudgment, the standards, and the performancelevel descriptions.Level 5: Exceeds Common Core expectationsLevel 4: Meets Common Core expectations(First required for Regents Diploma purposes with theClass of 2022)EngageNY.org22

SETTING PERFORMANCE STANDARDSfor Common Core AssessmentsResearch-basedMethodologyCollege andCareer ReadinessNY EducatorJudgmentCutscoresStandard SettingDeterminationEngageNY.org2323

SETTING PERFORMANCE STANDARDS Required by USED andStandards for Educationaland Psychological Testingto use research-basedmethodologyResearch-basedMethodology National experts in standardsetting monitored planning,materials and processEngageNY.org24

Selection of PanelistsLetters sent to key New York educator organizations,BOCES and Big 5 seeking nominations of educatorswho: have a deep knowledge of the Common Core standardshave experience teaching different student populationsrepresent the diversity of New York Stateinclude urban/rural/suburban schoolsinclude various geographic areas of the stateResumes were reviewed carefully to ensure richrepresentation for each ELA and Math grade bandEngageNY.org25

New York Educators areEssential to Setting Standards 69 New York educators served as panelists 34 panelists for ELA35 panelists for Algebra I Variety of educators represented: K-12 ELA and Math TeachersBOCESELL and SwD specialistsHigher EducationK-12 AdministrationEngageNY.org26

ELA Panelist RoleAdministrator5%Higher omTeacher(Content orSpecial Pop)53%EngageNY.org27

ELA Panelist RegionSyracuse3%Buffalo6%Yonkers6%Capital District5%Central11%Rochester8%Long Island11%Western11%Hudson6%SouthernTier North8% Country8%NYC17%EngageNY.org28

ELA Panelist GenderMale31%Female69%EngageNY.org29

ELA Panelist Race/EthnicityNot 3%White72%EngageNY.org30

ELA Panelists Working withSpecial PopulationsSpecial PopCertifiedTeachers19%Gen EdTeachers81%EngageNY.org31

Algebra I Panelist RoleAdministrator8%Higher Ed17%ContentSupervisor11%Specialist/Coach8%Teacher (Contentor Special Pop)56%EngageNY.org32

Algebra I Panelist alDistrict8%Central8%Long Island8%Western14%Southern Tier6%Hudson Valley8%NYC22%North Country6%EngageNY.org33

Algebra I Panelist GenderMale44%Female56%EngageNY.org34

Algebra I Panelist ic11%Native American/Alaskan Native3%White72%EngageNY.org35

Algebra I Panelists Workingwith Special PopulationsSpecial PopCertifiedTeachers8%Gen EdTeachers92%EngageNY.org36

Student Tests Selected for theStandard SettingFor the standard setting, a sample of student tests wasselected to match the typical June test-taking population,including: Need/Resource GroupGenderStudents with disabilitiesEnglish language rg37

ELA - RepresentativenessDemographicTypical Test-TakersStandard 5.8Poverty43.244.1NRC 1 (NYC)34.236.1NRC 2 (Big 4)2.82.7NRC 3 (High needurban/suburban)5.65.3NRC 4 (High need rural)5.25.8NRC 5 (Average need)28.431.7NRC 6 (Low need)15.911.9NRC 7 (Charter Schools)1.31.3NRC 8 (Nonpublic)6.75.2EngageNY.org38

ELA - RepresentativenessDemographicTypical Test-TakersStandard rican Indian0.50.4Multiracial0.60.4Pacific Islander0.20.1White51.052.4EngageNY.org39

Algebra I - RepresentativenessDemographicTypical Test-TakersStandard 5.4Poverty48.347.5NRC 1 (NYC)35.236.1NRC 2 (Big 4)3.93.5NRC 3 (High needurban/suburban)6.86.5NRC 4 (High need rural)4.84.0NRC 5 (Average need)26.328.3NRC 6 (Low need)13.714.5NRC 7 (Charter Schools)1.81.8NRC 8 (Nonpublic)7.35.3EngageNY.org40

Algebra I - RepresentativenessDemographicTypical Test-TakersStandard rican Indian0.50.3Multiracial0.90.6Pacific Islander0.20.2White47.048.4EngageNY.org41

First Task: Review TestFor each Exam, panelists:1. Took a “mini test” comprised of a subset of the sameitems administered in 2014;2. Reviewed the remainder of the test;3. Had opportunities to discuss any questions with thetest development coordinators.EngageNY.org42

Second Task: Define ExpectationsFor each exam, panelists:1. Reviewed detailed descriptions of the range ofknowledge and skills that describe students at eachperformance level;2. For Levels 4 and 5, discussed and came to consensuson the specific knowledge and skills that characterize astudent who is “just barely” proficient. This is thethreshold student.Focus is on what students should be able to do in eachcourse according to demands of the standards.EngageNY.org43

Conceptualize the Threshold StudentLevel 1Level 2Level 3LowerLevel 4Level 5Higher Based on the Performance Level Descriptors(PLDs), visualize New York State studentswho are: Just barely entering the next higher levelWhat knowledge and skills should a student haveat the thresholds?EngageNY.org44

Third Task: Train on Ordered ItemBooklet (OIB) Method OIB is the most common standardsetting methodology in statetesting. There is an extensive researchbase supporting the validity of thisprocess to capture educatorjudgment and cut scorerecommendations. Items from the test are orderedfrom easiest to asiestItem45

Third Task: Train on Ordered ItemBooklet (OIB) Method (cont’d) Panelists were trained on how to usethe OIB to make judgments aboutwhere the cut scores should be todistinguish: HardestItemLevel 2 from Level 1Level 3 from Level 2Level 4 from Level 3Level 5 from Level 4 After training, each panelistcompleted a survey indicating his/herlevel of understanding. If any panelistwas not confident in his/herunderstanding, more training wasprovided to all.EngageNY.orgOrderedItemBookletEasiestItem46

Fourth Task: Make FirstJudgments about Cut Scores Panelists made judgments individually. Individual judgments were handed to facilitators. Facilitators aggregated data and shared withpanelists. Panelists discussed rationales for their judgments. Rationales must be based on threshold descriptions andexpectations of the Common Core standards.EngageNY.org47

Level 1Level 2Level 2CutScoreLevel 3Level 3CutScoreLevel 4Level 4CutScoreLevel 5Level 5CutScoreMust be consistent withcurrent passing rates For Levels 2 and 3, panelists could select onlyfrom bookmarks that maintained the passing ratepolicy. For Levels 4 and 5, panelists placed bookmarksbased on their judgment, the standards, andperformance level descriptions.EngageNY.org48

Three Rounds for Each Exam The process was repeated three times for each exam toensure panelists had ample time to discuss the rationalefor their judgments and change their judgments if theirother panelists offered compelling rationales to do so. Panelists reviewed impact data after Rounds 2 and 3. Panelists were not required to come to consensus asindividual judgment is valued. The process took two full days for each exam.EngageNY.org49

Panelist Evaluation of Process 90% of Algebra I and 92% of ELA panelists agreed orstrongly agreed that the process and methods usedwould produce appropriate results. 100% of Algebra I and 96% of ELA panelists agreed orstrongly agreed that their bookmark placementsaccurately represented the knowledge and skillsrequired for each performance level.“I walked in very skeptical. VERY. I am much moreconfident in the findings and recommendations afterhaving been through this process. I think the varietyof perspectives is critically important to the success.”EngageNY.org50

The Commissioner accepted panelistperformance level cut score recommendations.EngageNY.org51

New Standards and Tests,Same ScaleNew performance standardsLevel 5: Exceeds Common Core expectationsSame Scale0 - 100Level 4: Meets Common Core expectations(first required for Regents Diploma purposes with theClass of 2022)Level 3: Partially meets Common Core expectations(Required for current Regents Diploma purposes)Level 2 (Safety Net): Partially meets Common CoreExpectations(Required for Local Diploma purposes)Level 1: Does not demonstrate knowledge and skills forLevel 1EngageNY.org52

Common Core ELA Regents ExamPercent in each Performance Level forPublic Schools included in Standard SettingCommon Core Level 2 and above: 86.7%55 & above historical range: 83.3-87.5%Level 113.3%10.1%29.7%22.6%Level 224.2%Level 3Level 4Level 5Common Core Level 3 and above: 76.6%65 & above historical range: %100%53

Common Core ELA Regents ExamPercent in each Performance Level forPublic Schools included in Standard Setting(2008-13 Historical Medians & Ranges Displayed in Red)353031.32523.521.8201513.89.410502014:Prior to 2014:13.310.129.722.624.2Level 1Level 2Level 3Level 4Level 5(0-54)(55-64)(65-79)(80-84)(85-100)54

Common Core Algebra I Regents ExamPercent in each Performance Level forPublic Schools included in Standard SettingCommon Core Level 2 and above: 85.1%55 & above historical range: 80.3-85.4%Level 114.9%19.7%43.3%18.3%3.8%Level 2Level 3Level 4Level 5Common Core Level 3 and above: 65.4%65 & above historical range: 64.5-74.6%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%55

Common Core Algebra I Regents ExamPercent in each Performance Level forPublic Schools included in Standard Setting(2008-13 Historical Medians & Ranges Displayed in 14: Level 1Prior to 2014:(0-54)19.743.318.33.8Level 2Level 3Level 4Level 5(55-64)(65-79)(80-84)(85-100)56

ELA: Recommended Cut ScoresPerformance LevelScale Score RangeLevel 5: Exceeds Common Core expectations85-100Level 4: Meets Common Core expectations(first required for Regents Diploma purposes withthe Class of 2022)79-84Level 3: Partially meets Common Coreexpectations(Required for current Regents Diploma purposes)65-78Level 2 (Safety Net): Partially meets CommonCore Expectations(Required for Local Diploma purposes)55-64Level 1: Does not demonstrate knowledge andskills for Level 20-54EngageNY.org57

Algebra I: Recommended Cut ScoresPerformance LevelScale Score RangeLevel 5: Exceeds Common Core expectations85-100Level 4: Meets Common Core expectations(first required for Regents Diploma purposes withthe Class of 2022)74-84Level 3: Partially meets Common Coreexpectations(Required for current Regents Diploma purposes)65-73Level 2 (Safety Net): Partially meets CommonCore Expectations(Required for Local Diploma purposes)55-64Level 1: Does not demonstrate knowledge andskills for Level 20-54EngageNY.org58

Setting Performance Standards:Common Core Regents Exams inAlgebra I and ELABoard of RegentsJune 23, 2014EngageNY.org

The Bottom Line New York has completed the fourth year of a 12-year Common Core phase-in. The Class of 2022: Had just completed kindergarten when the Common Core was adopted by the Board in summer 2010; Was enrolled in third grade when student progress on the Common Core was first measured in spring 2013; Will generally take the Common Core Algebra I Regents Exam in

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