The Future Of Electric Vehicles And Material Resources - Unitar

THE FUTURE OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES AND MATERIAL RESOURCESA FORESIGHT BRIEFDespite being seemingly a relatively new phenomenon, the origin of EVs dates back to the 1830s. The firstbattery-powered EV was built in 1834, more than 50 years before the first petrol-powered internal combustionengine vehicle.By the beginning of the 20th century, EVs becamemore popular with the availability of rechargeablebatteries. More than one-third of automobiles inthe United States were electric by 1912.4Nonetheless, EVs were succeeded soon thereafterby ICEVs. EVs could not keep up with massproduced ICEVs, which were cheaper and faster,and which could run longer. Not until the 1990s didEVs return to life again – due to the developmentof energy-dense and lightweight lithium-ion batteries.Lead-acid batteries have been the primary choicefor energy storage for more than a century, buttheir heavy weight in relation to their low-energystorage capacity did not fit the needs of EVs forrunning at higher speeds and over longer distances.Lithium-ion technology has proven to be a gamechanging solution, offering higher energy density.5BOX 1: TYPES OF EVSBATTERY ELECTRIC VEHICLESBattery electric vehicles (BEVs) are powered entirely by electric motorand use rechargeable batteries for the energy storage. The maincomponents of the electric drive system include battery pack, gearbox,inverter, and induction motor. Batteries can be charged externally byconnecting BEVs to grid electricity. Additionally, the regenerativebraking mechanism converts mechanical energy into electric charge,which is also supplied to the battery.EVs operate by converting electrical energy tokinetic energy via an induction motor for propulsion.They are equipped with an energy storage batteryunit on board. The power needed to charge EVbatteries and run the EV’s motor could be suppliedfrom different arrangements of energy sources,which also define the type of an EV. Currentlyavailable EVs can be grouped into three categories:battery electric vehicles (BEV), plug-in hybrids(PHEV), and hybrid electric vehicles (HEV).6 SeeBox 1.LITHIUM-ION BATTERIESBatteries are an important part of EVs, regardlessof their type. The lack of reliable, small, and lightweight batteries has long been an issue, butlithium-ion batteries (LIBs) offer both economicand technological solutions to the problem. LIBsoffer a less toxic and higher-energy storage potentialthan lead-acid batteries do, and they can bedesigned with various chemical combinations.Their importance is reflected in the 2019 NobelPrize in Chemistry, which was awarded to scientistswho contributed to the development of LIBs.7Each battery cell in LIBs consists of four components: cathode, anode, electrolyte, and separator.The characteristics of the battery cell vary depending on the cathode’s chemical composition. Thecommon cathode chemistries used in EV batteriesinclude: lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxide(NMC), lithium nickel cobalt aluminium oxide(NCA), and lithium iron phosphate (LFP).8The lithium-ion battery technology has evolvedsignificantly in recent years and continues toadvance rapidly, offering increased efficiency atlower and lower prices. Over the past decade,the price of LIBs has decreased from more thanUSD 1,100/kWh to about USD 150/kWh and isprojected to cost roughly USD 100/kWh by 2030.9Total ownership cost (including fuel and maintenance) is already lower for electric cars, andwith the price of the battery being at or belowUSD 100/kWh, electric cars are expected to reachvehicle price parity with ICEVs for personal use.10More recently developed ‘extreme fast charging’technology promises to decrease the chargingtime for a 320-kilometre drive to as little as10 minutes.11 Such developments are set to solvethe so-called ‘range-anxiety’ issue, prompting anaccelerated adoption of electric cars. Battery cellchemistry also continues to mature, and technologies such as solid-state batteries hold promisingprospects for future development in terms ofbattery performance. Nonetheless, the EV sectorcurrently relies on the lithium-ion formula, and LIBsare expected to be the leading battery technology,at least in the near future.PLUG-IN HYBRID ELECTRIC VEHICLESPlug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) utilise both an internal combustionengine and an electric motor. PHEVs can be operated in different drivingmodes: as an ICEV, BEV, or both. Like BEVs, the battery can be chargedby external power sources. While running, the internal combustionengine powers the electric motor as needed and can recharge the battery.HYBRID ELECTRIC VEHICLESHybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) also have both internal combustion engineand smaller-capacity electric motor/battery combinations. The battery ischarged from regenerative braking or by the internal combustion engine,but external charging of the battery is not possible. HEVs currently havemore sales share than other EV types. HEVs cannot be considered as‘electrified’ transport modes, though, because they cannot be chargedusing an external electricity source. HEVs are not included, for example,in the definition of ‘alternatively powered vehicles’ by the European Union.10FIGURE 1: SCHEMATIC DIAGRAM OF A BATTERY ELECTRIC CARSource: Ian Furst / CC BY-SA (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0)11

OPPORTUNITIESAND CHALLENGES

THE FUTURE OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES AND MATERIAL RESOURCESA FORESIGHT BRIEFECONOMYOPPORTUNITIESEVs also offer an opportunity for many countrieswith no fossil reserves to be independent offoreign oil and to develop flexible infrastructurebased on renewable sources of energy. Countriessuch as India, which are less industrialised but havesignificant potential for economic growth, are alsoTECHNOLOGYEVs offer numerous technological and performancerelated advantages over conventional ICEVs. Interms of engineering, induction motors aresuperior because of their higher energy efficiency.Compared to a maximum of 30% tank-to-wheelenergy efficiency a of ICEVs, EVs offer more than77% of wall-to-wheel efficiency. Induction motorsare also more reliable than internal combustionengines because they use fewer components,which means less chance of failure and lowermaintenance costs of EVs than for ICEVs. Theregenerative braking system in EVs can convert apart of the kinetic energy lost during decelerationinto electric energy for recharging the battery.The lower centre of gravity in EVs gives themmore stability and better control b, which, alongwith better braking systems, makes them morereliable and safer. EVs allow for the possibilityof software to replace mechanical solutions toseveral problems of EV driving, which furtherenhances vehicle performance in several respects.POLLUTIONThe absence of an internal combustion engine inEVs equates to significantly less noise pollution.Since no exhaust gases are released during theiruse, EVs are free of tailpipe emissions, contributingvirtually zero air pollution to the local environment.Moreover, given that there is no need to keep theengine running, unlike with combustion engines,EVs perform more efficiently in heavy traffic andcongestions. As such, the overall pollution fromEVs comes largely from the production of energyfor recharging the battery, which depends onthe local energy mix. Nonetheless, directemissions (including air pollutants resultingfrom the combustion process) are invariablylower in EV use, when operated correctly,than in ICEV use. Even when the energy isproduced from the combustion of fossil fuels,the air pollution can be more efficiently reducedat the power plant level than at the individualvehicle level.trying to capitalise on the economic opportunitiesthat EVs provide through local manufacturing ofEVs and batteries. These initiatives can helpcapture potential economic benefits and createlocal jobs, along with other technological andenvironmental benefits that EVs offer.10GROWTH OUTLOOKRecent developments, especially relating to electriccars, show an optimistic trend for the EV industry.With major car manufacturers joining the race,a rapid growth in production and sales of electriccars is expected in the coming years. The globalelectric car fleet reached 7.2 million in 2019, with2.1 million units having been added that year. 9Despite the slowdown caused by the COVID-19pandemic in 2020, annual EV sales is expectedto grow to approximately 9 million units by 2025and nearly 26 million by 2030, after which thefleet of petrol and gasoline cars will begin declining.Electric passenger cars are forecasted to takeover internal combustion engine cars in globalannual sales before 2040. 9,13Combustion engine carsElectric passenger CarsEMISSIONSThe higher energy efficiency of EVs equates tolower engine and driveline losses, which, in turn,equates to better economic and environmentalperformance than ICEVs offer. EVs provide environmental savings in terms of reduced emissionduring their use, depending on the energy mix,as well as over their whole lifecycle. On average,for 2018, a medium-size electric car emits abouta https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/evtech.shtmlb https://afdc.energy.gov/vehicles/electric maintenance.html1460% less CO2-equivalent emissions per kilometrethan does its ICE counterpart. 9 When chargedusing 80% renewable energy, EVs can reduceGHG emissions by 85%, SO2 and NOx by 75%,and particulate matter (PM) emissions by 40%.12With the growing share of renewables in theenergy mix, these savings can be expected tobe even higher in the future.FIGURE 2: SALES OF ELECTRIC CARS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT 20 YEARSSource: Reproduced from BloombergNEF’s Electric Vehicle Outlook 2019 15

THE FUTURE OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES AND MATERIAL RESOURCESA FORESIGHT BRIEFCHALLENGESThe growth of EVs is expected to follow theS-curve trend, which is a typical pattern for newtechnology adoption.14 Like other technologicaladvancements, it can be inferred that batterytechnology will evolve rapidly, and as the priceof EV batteries continues to decrease, the adoptionof EVs will grow substantially. Besides financialand technological factors, the growth will alsodepend on transport and energy policies, as wellas consumer preferences and infrastructurefor supporting the rapid adoption of EVs. Therole of private sector players, including vehiclemanufacturers and charging infrastructure operators,will also be equally important in the expansion ofelectric mobility.15Despite numerous benefits and an optimistic growthoutlook, EVs face some crucial challenges. Higherpurchase price, lack of supportive infrastructureand clean energy, and the need for a sustainablesupply of material resources are some of the keychallenges that need addressing in order for EVsto become a steadfast replacement for ICEVs.AFFORDABILITYMarket uptake and consumer acceptance dependprimarily on costs. Electric cars are more expensivethan their fossil-fuelled counterparts. So, it is notsurprising that the majority of electric cars are soldin countries with high GDP. Apart from China, mostEV sales are reported in OECD countries. Evenwithin the EU, 85% of sales are in only sixWestern European countries.6 The widespreadadoption of passenger electric cars is onlypossible when the purchase price and ownershipcost for electric cars are similar to those ofconventional diesel and petrol cars.CHARGING INFRASTRUCTUREOn the technical side, EVs are still evolving towardoffering the same performance and conveniencethat ICEVs offer. The combination of short-rangecapacity and unavailability of charging facilities isa barrier for EV adoption, especially in the caseof personal cars. With most electric car batteriesbeing in the 50-70 kWh range, the battery capacityof EVs continues to increase. 9 However, mostelectric car users are using private chargingfacilities at home or at work. Along withimprovements in battery technology, sufficientcharging infrastructure across road networks isnecessary to prompt public adoption of EVs.(coal, oil, and natural gas) being the major source(64%) of the total electricity produced globally,significant progress is needed in the decarbonisationof the power sector.17For countries heavily reliant on non-renewablesources, ‘greening’ of their energy production isan equally important challenge, parallel to thepublic adoption of EVs.MATERIAL RESOURCESThough EVs are free of tailpipe pollution and canrun on green energy, their production accounts fora significant share of their total lifecycle environmental impacts. This is mainly due to the materialresources used in EV batteries, which require moreeffort to extract. Material extraction and manufacturing of EVs is the most significant stage in termsof energy use and other impacts linked to the primary production of critical and important metals,such as cobalt and nickel. Moreover, some ofthese material resources on which the EV systemrelies end up bearing supply risks due more togeopolitical issues than to their limited availability.18Until recently, the main demand for LIBs camefrom the consumer electronics sector, but that isanticipated to change with the growing EV market.By 2030, approximately 85% of LIB demand (interms of their capacity) is estimated to come fromEVs, with the rest being used in consumerelectronics and for stationary energy storage.13Lithium is the base element in LIBs and isexpected to remain so for battery technologies ofthe near future, which implies that the demand forlithium will increase alongside the growing demandfor LIBs. By 2030, LIBs will likely make up 80%cof the 160,000 metric tons of the global lithiumdemand each year.3 Other metals that are used incurrent battery chemistries – including cobalt, copper,and nickel – will also see an increase in demand.The geological availability of these metals will notbe an issue for meeting the demand. However,extraction of these resources will result in increasedenvironmental impacts, such as GHG emissions,water and soil pollutions, and stress on waterresources.15,19 The continuous supply of someof these resources is subject to geopoliticalchallenges. Social and ethical issues, such aschild labour and poor working conditions, are alsoof concern for the extraction of some metals.20c e-demand/FIGURE 3: FORECAST FOR THE ANNUALLIBS DEMAND PER SECTORSource: Reproduced from BloombergNEF’sElectric Vehicle Outlook ok/)CLEAN ENERGYThe increase in EV sales also means a directlyproportionate increased demand for electricenergy. EVs will not be ‘zero emission’ unlessthe electricity for charging them is as well. Theuse of fossil-based electricity for running EVsmeans sending the emissions upstream to the16energy production stage. Energy production hasto be free of fossil fuels for EVs to run trulyemission-free. The share of renewable energy isexpected to increase significantly in the decadesto come, with solar and wind power having upto 80% share by 2050.16 However, with fossil fuelsElectric VehiclesStationary StorageConsumer ElectronicsElectric Two-wheelers and Buses17

4END-OF-LIFEBATTERIES

THE FUTURE OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES AND MATERIAL RESOURCESA FORESIGHT BRIEFEnsuring a sustainable supply of material resources to meet the growing demand for LIBs will require exploitingboth primary and secondary sources of the materials. By 2030, roughly 2.5 million metric tons of LIBs each year willbe reaching their end-of-life (EoL), with a sizable fraction coming from EVs.21 The production of LIBs carries asubstantial share of the total lifecycle GHG emission of an EV, which varies depending on the battery chemistry,EV type, and available energy mix.For example, LIBs of a midsize passenger electriccar (78 kWh size, 400 km range) account for about22% of the vehicle’s total lifecycle GHG emissionsbased on 2018 global average power mix withcarbon intensity 518 g CO2-eq/kWh.15This share of emissions from battery manufacturing will increase if the vehicle runs using a morerenewable energy mix. The total lifecycle GHGemissions of an EV can be reduced by about 20%through material recycling.22REUSEWith use over time, EV batteries lose their storagecapacity, output power, and the ability to rapidlycharge and discharge, which are essential functionsneeded for an EV’s purpose. These batteries cometo their EoL as to their use in an EV, but they arenot completely exhausted, and the remainingpotential can be utilised elsewhere. EoL EV batteries carry up to 80% of their initial capacity, whichcan be used for less demanding purposes in otherapplications, and during which they can last forseveral more years. They can be converted intostationary power supply units for homes,commercial buildings, streetlights, and sportarenas, as well as for enterprise purposes, suchas being used in service vehicles in mining andconstruction work, electric forklifts, etc.These emissions can presumably be reduced evenfurther via reuse of EV batteries before recycling.Proper management of EoL EVs is thus crucial forfacilitating their reuse and recycling, which will bringsignificant economic and environmental savings.BOX 2: REUSE – EXAMPLES, BENEFITS AND CHALLENGESEXAMPLESBENEFITSCHALLENGES Powervault, a UK company, workswith car manufacturers Nissanand Renault to repurpose EoL EVbatteries into power banks as away of providing a ‘cheaper andgreener’ alternative to its customers d. R epurposing EoL batteries isrelatively straightforward andsignificantly cheaper than thecost of new batteries. P roper collection of used batteriesis required to facilitate reuse,which will not be possible withoutan efficient EoL managementsystem that is currently lacking. The world’s largest mobile phonetower operator, China Tower, isreplacing lead-acid batteries withrepurposed EV batteries and reducingsignificant operational costs in theprocess e. China Tower is also working with Huawei to test the use ofLIBs for high-power demands of 5Gbase stations f. E V manufacturers are also introducing similar services. The NissanEnergy Storage program has joinedforces with other partners in Asia,Europe, and South America to offerenergy storage solutions while givinga second life to EoL batteries g.20 T he environmental performanceof EV batteries improves withtheir reuse, as it circumvents theneed to manufacture new batteries. T he higher reuse potential andmonetary value of used EV batteries(as compared to other LIBs, suchas those used in electronic products)offer an incentive for implementingmore circular business models. W ith improved chemistries anddecreasing prices of new batteries,repurposed batteries will have tocompete increasingly with newer,cheaper, and more efficient batteries. V ariation in battery types anddesigns, as well as their usage,hinders utilisation of the fullpotential of EoL batteries’ reuse.d our-solar-energy/e 6da3104842260b9eb5 2.htmlf /chinatower-huawei-test-5g-energy-solutionsg o-create-electric-vehicle-ecosystemFIGURE 4: CIRCULAR SYSTEMS FOR EOL REUSE AND RECYCLING OF EV BATTERIESSource: Reproduced from ReCell Center’s illustration (https://recellcenter.org/research/)21

5THE FUTURE OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES AND MATERIAL RESOURCESRECYCLINGWith increased adoption of EVs comes an increaseddemand for material resources for making newbatteries. Ensuring a sustainable supply of materialsto meet the ever-increasing demand will requireoptimised material recycling from EoL batteries.In terms of technology, lithium-ion battery recyclingmainly uses three methods.Direct recycling is a physical process for recoveringmaterials with minimum damage to their crystalstructure. The two other methods are based onmetallurgical approaches (hydrometallurgical andpyrometallurgical) for extracting valuable resourcesfrom the cathode.leaching, and chemical precipitation.Pyrometallurgy involves smelting of EoL batteriesat temperatures in excess of 1,000 C. Thepyrometallurgical process is less efficient in termsof material recovery rate, but it is more commonlyused in the recycling industry than hydrometallurgybecause of its simpler and more productiveprocess in terms of throughput.These three recycling methods can be used incombination, depending on the type of batterychemistries and the target materials beingrecycled.23, 24Hydrometallurgy uses multi-step chemicaltreatment processes, including solvent extraction,POLICYEXAMPLESBOX 3: RECYCLING: EXAMPLES, BENEFITS AND CHALLENGESEXAMPLESBENEFITSCHALLENGES Umicore, a leading metal recyclerbased in Belgium, has installeda dedicated dismantling andrecycling process with a capacityof 7,000 metric tons h of LIBsper year. The process combineshydrometallurgical and pyrometallurgical steps to produce refinedmetals that can be used to makenew LIBs. B atteries are one of the mostexpensive components of EVs.Thus, the recycling of EoL batteries,especially the direct recycling ofcathodes, has considerable businesspotential.25 S hapes and sizes of lithium-ion cells,as well as their material composition,vary across LIBs, which adds to thedifficulties of battery recycling.27 New companies have emerged withbusiness models focusing on LIBrecycling. For example, the Canadiancompany Li-Cycle i claims to havedeveloped a technology (combiningmechanical and hydrometallurgicalprocesses) that can recover up to100% of all materials from LIBs. American carmaker Te

PLUG-IN HYBRID ELECTRIC VEHICLES Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) utilise both an internal combustion engine and an electric motor. PHEVs can be operated in different driving modes: as an ICEV, BEV, or both. Like BEVs, the battery can be charged by external power sources. While running, the internal combustion