Wind Energy 2050

Wind Energy 2050Executive SummaryGlobal warming and increasing electricity consumption trends in many parts of the world pose aserious challenge to most countries from a climatechange and energy security perspective. Harnessing of wind energy, which is indigenously availablein almost every country can be a major mitigating exercise to address both the issues. WWEA inits earlier WWEA Wind Resource Report wind-resource-assessment-report/) has assessed theworldwide potential to be of the order of 95 TW,which is more than adequate to meet the electricity requirements of the world in combination withother renewable energy options.Energiewende or energy transition will result in ahigh level of penetration of renewable energy in thepower systems around the world. Some countrieslike Denmark and regions like Texas, already haveup to 50% or even more penetration of renewableenergy. On some days, Denmark receives 100% ofits electricity requirements from wind energy. Highpenetration of renewable energy, in particular windenergy, due to the fluctuating nature of the source,presents many challenges in integrating the windpower generation with the conventional power system or the electricity grid.In recent times there has also been much interestin 100% renewable energy, which requires a complex grid interface with a varied number of generation devices and balancing ancillaries such as bat-tery banks, pumped hydro storage, other storages,SCADA, capacitor banks etc.This report from WWEA technical committee isabout examining these challenges and solutions toaddress some of the issues so that we can step offfrom a Hydrocarbon fossil fuel based energy systemand on to a Renewable Energy Platform.The WWEA Grid Integration report carries a briefholistic overview of the evolution of emerging gridintegration issues, smart grid, island grids and thelikely shape of grid in foreseeable future. The reportalso covers trends in wind technologies, trends inwind installations in different regions of the worldand expected penetration levels by 2050.The grid is evolving and it is important to understandthat when renewable energy generators get connectedto the grid, they become a part of it just like the conventional generators are. The grid is no more – whatit used to be. The question then is not so much abouthow to integrate wind energy with the grid but ratherhow the various elements of the newly evolved gridmust function with a large component of renewableenergy including wind energy integrated with it.There are many different aspects to grid integration of wind energy or renewable energy in general.These aspects vary from region to region dependingon local characteristics, generation mix, load patterns, transmission infrastructure and the operationA WWEA Technical Commitee Report on Grid Integrationxi

Wind Energy 2050and management practice. In chapter 2.0 we havetried to highlight these different aspects and facetsof grid integration issue.Evolution of wind technologies and the trends ininstallations are also examined in the introductorysection as the technology itself is the change agent.While conventionally there have been large centralized power plants based on fossil fuel, wind turbines that have emerged over the last few decadesare significantly smaller machines. These are geographically dispersed meeting local loads as well asfeeding electricity upstream in the grid.Wind turbines are now well entrenched in the gridacross the world. Analysis presented in Figure Ashows that Asia lead by India and China has emergedas a major market and a hub for technology supply.The report also presents the 2050 scenarios forwind power penetration levels in total electricitymix over the next 35 years. Taking into consideration the trend of installation from 1971 onwardsand studies conducted by IEA and WEC the totalelectricity production will fall in the range of 40000to 74000 TWh by 2050. According to WWEA’s assessment the wind power generation can be between8000 TWh to as high as 29600 TWh. The capaci-ties corresponding to different electricity generationscenarios (i.e., Low - 40000 TWh, Likely – 57000TWh and High – 74000 TWh) assuming capacity utilization factor of 20% are shown in FigureB. The wind capacity scenarios also correspond toLow (20% penetration, Likely 30% penetrationFigure A: Regional trends in installations140.00Cumulative Capacity (GW)120.00Asia100.00EU80.00US & Can60.00Latin America40.00Africa20.00Aus & Islands0.002010xii2011A WWEA Technical Commitee Report on Grid Integration20122013

Wind Energy 2050The report has highlighted the evolving aspect ofthe electricity grid. Across the world, the electricitygrids will undergo changes in infrastructure, technologies, structure and management to enable largescale integration of renewable energy, in particularwind energy into the power system. Future electricity grid will comprise of distributed generation ascompared to centralized generation. Multiple megadrivers are set to dramatically change ground realities and the basic assumptions that govern powersystem design and operation. These drivers are 1)Environment or Decarbonization, 2) Reliability, 3)Distributed Generation with Renewable Energy 4)Transportation electrification, 5) Consumer participation and 6) Deregulation. This evolution shouldbe viewed in the context of the country or region.For example, looking at Africa, which today happens to be the dark continent devoid of a significantnetwork serving it, interconnected mini-grids withdistributed renewable energy and hybrid powerplants can be a major distinguishing feature fromthat of the conventional power systems in developed countries.Whatever, the manner of transition, we will seesteady diversification in sources and types of electricity injection devices to include solar, wind, storage systems and demand side resources, etc. This,in turn, would require the grid as a whole to evolveits control capabilities to host the new found andtremendous diversity of loads and generators. Thequestion, therefore, is not of wind variability but ofhow to evolve with high penetration of wind and toassess the control capabilities of the electricity gridas a whole.Figure B: Wind Power Scenario - 205018.016.0Wind Power Capacity (TW)and High 40% penetration). This corresponds toa range of 4 TW to 16 TW. The current installedcapacity is 0.37 TW. Therefore, by 2050 on a veryconservative and low scenario basis, we expect morethan 10 fold increase while on the optimistic side,we expect more than 40 fold increase. In the mostlikely scenario we expect more than 25 fold increasecorresponding to 9.8 TW.14.012.010.08.06.04.02.00.0Low 40000Likely 57000High 74000Worldwide Total Electricity Requirement (TWh)Low 20%Likely 30%High 40%The already existing suite of control technologiesand strategies are set to dramatically change. Whileexisting regulatory codes and standards on grid safety, security and operation will continue to apply toa large extent there will be a greater deployment ofcontrol, automation, and information technology.Together, these form the smart grid initiatives thatwill not only engage with generators but also withconsumers and other ancillary units in the grid.Concluding RemarksThe world energy system, which is predominantlyhydrocarbon based must now undergo a transitionto make way for a renewable energy based systemin which wind energy plays the predominant mainstream role. The planetary environmental concerns,energy access and energy security issues, the geopolitics of oil and resulting conflicts in many partsof the world, all these aspects point towards the urgent need for this transition or Energiewende as itis called.WWEA in its earlier WWEA Wind Resource Report (2014) has assessed the worldwide potentialto be of the order of 95 TW, which is more thanA WWEA Technical Commitee Report on Grid Integrationxiii

Wind Energy 2050adequate to meet the electricity requirements of theworld in combination with other renewable energyoptions.Today with wind contributing nearly 4% of overallelectricity generation, 370 GW of installed generation capacity and deployment in more than 100countries; modern wind turbines have made thetransition from a fringe technology to a mainstreamelectricity generation option. Technology continues to evolve with greater elements of innovation,engineering complexity and technical finesse. Wecan say a modern wind turbine is a smart windturbine capable of un-attended operation even inextreme climates such as offshore regions. Manynew ideas and initiatives are being experimentedwith and this may further change the technologylandscape.A major barrier to large-scale wind power deployment is its integration with the conventional electricity grid. We have looked at the entire issue ofgrid and its management with high penetrationof wind and other renewable energy with deep insights but from a broad evolutionary perspective.We conclude that higher penetration of wind in thepower systems is not an insurmountable problemand there are specific technological or managementpractice solutions to each of the problems. We feelwith greater component of generation from wind,the grid has evolved and it must undergo furthersignificant evolution to enable 100% RE scenarios.Some of the specific conclusions w.r.t. grid are:vxivNeed for flexibility in the power system, whichimplies a lesser capacity based on nuclear andcoal and a larger capacity based on hydro or fastresponse unitsA WWEA Technical Commitee Report on Grid IntegrationvvvvvvvvvvWe note that even in the absence of wind, apower system has to deal with many dynamicparameters such as availability of plants andvariability in load demand. Wind generationonly adds to the dynamics in the system.A larger number of transmission links from ahigh wind resource area to the adjoining areasDeployment of DC and HVDC technologieswith converters and power electronics that address issues of harmonics and stabilityNeed for utility scale storage systems to balancefluctuationsNeed for forecasting power output from windfarms over both, long term (1 week) and veryshort term (1 hr)Need for technological modifications in windturbines to enable better control and gridfriendly operation such as LVRT, HVRT, curtailed operation or power factor adjustments.Technologies are also required to interface withstorage systems with wind turbines or independent of wind turbinesWe also conclude that in large scale wind generation, variabilities are evened out and pose lessof a problem at system operation level. However, local variabilities may cause surge or dipvoltage and frequency.Smart grid options need to be explored for better communication in different parts of grid andbetter controlProliferation of battery storage systems in vehicles, power back ups in domestic, industrial andcommercial establishments can be leveraged toachieve high penetration of wind energy andother renewableHydro capacity with the ability to ramp up andramp down in a matter of minutes is a goodcombination with wind energy. Pumped hydrocapacity in the system has the same effect.

Wind Energy 20501.0 IntroductionModern industrial civilization, built over the last300 odd years has made huge transition from a predominantly agrarian society to an industrial one.The journey to machine age has been most miraculous and makes for an amazing story. Energy hasbeen a key element of this story. Beginning with thefirst coal based steam engine developed in the 17thCentury; energy has been at the centre stage of thisevolution. Mankind was fortunate to stumble uponhuge reserves of hydro-carbons across the world thathas fueled modern civilization in an unprecedentedway. One could say that our civilization is built ona hydrocarbon platform, its constituents being coal,oil and gas. Be it transport, industrial, commercial,non-commercial, domestic sectors – As of today,our machines need hydrocarbons to keep the showgoing.Though today we still have discovered and undiscovered reserves of hydrocarbons in huge quantities, we stand on crossroads. On the one hand, wehave the relentless and massive extraction of theseminerals and substances (fossil fuels) that have beenformed through millions of years of natural pro-A WWEA Technical Commitee Report on Grid Integration1

Wind Energy 2050tinue to intervene in natural systems in an unnatural way consistently, the outcomes are going to bedisastrous.cess in Earth’s surface, in just about 300 years. Onthe other hand, we have Green House Gas (GHG)emissions from burning of Hydrocarbons in Transport, Industry and Power Generation that has created a situation where we are already hitting the roofas far as these emissions are concerned. GHG emissions are causing global warming and if no preventive measures are taken, average global temperaturescould rise upto 4 deg C in the long term (source:IPCC, RCP8.5 scenario). This implies large-scaleclimate change resulting in changes in atmosphericand oceanic systems such as monsoons; increasedfrequency and severity of cyclones, storms, droughtsand floods; sea level rise and inundation and lossof millions of square kilometers around the world;melting of glaciers in polar regions resulting in achange in pH of oceans with associated impact onplankton existence- the basic food source for all marine life, oceanic circulation, currents and the melting of glaciers in Himalayas with associated impacton the rivers that emanate from Himalayas. According to an estimate, livelihoods of nearly 4.5 billionpeople living in different countries are linked to rivers that emanate from Himalayan Glaciers. Thoughmany people are skeptical about global warmingand its impact, it stands to reason, that if we con-It is now an established scientific fact that anthropogenic activities are at the root of global warmingand even if GHG emissions were neutralized completely, the inertia of the climatic system will resultin average global temperatures rising well into thenext century. In its latest report, IPCC1 commenting on future risks emanating from Climate Changehas said:Continued emission of greenhouse gaseswill cause further warming and long-lastingchanges in all components of the climate system,increasing the likelihood of severe, pervasive andirreversible impacts for people and ecosystems.Limiting climate change would require substantial and sustained reductions in greenhouse gasemissions which, together with adaptation, canlimit climate change risks.Climate change is undoubtedly a major driver ofwind power development. In 2004 burning of fossil fuels in Industry and in general for electricityFigure 1.1: Per-capita Electricity consumption in different countries (2013)600005000040000300002000010000Source: Worldbank database2A WWEA Technical Commitee Report on Grid IntegrationKuwaitSwedenUAEFranceHigh incomeEstoniaDenmarkLibyaWorldwide Per-Capita Electricity Consumption (kWh/Yr)United AzerbaijanTajikistanLA & CarribeanMoldovaParaguayJamaicaEl SalvadorSouth AsiaNicaraguaGhanaNigeriaSenegalCongoEritrea0

Wind Energy 2050generation accounted for nearly 45% of the totalemissions2.Access to electricity is another major driver. Today,it is estimated that nearly 1.3 billion people in theworld do not have access to electricity, which is asmuch as the population in OECD /).Electricity consumption is directly related to thequality of living. In 2013, as shown in figure 1.1more than 38 countries had per capita electricity consumption less than 1000 kWh/yr includingsome of the most populated regions and all countries of South Asia accounting for 1.7 billion peopleand about 50% of the world has per-capita consumption below 2000 kWh/yr. The world averageis around 3000 kWh/yr and the European countriestypically have per capita electricity consumption ofmore than 5000 – 7000 kWh/yr. This shows thatthere is great potential to add generation capacityacross the world. According to an assessment, theelectricity requirements are expected to grow by43% in next 20 years.to renewable energy and a significant reduction oran end to hydrocarbon fuels. Many other countriesoutside of Europe including China, India, US, Brazil and Canada are also making a serious effort tobring about significant renewable energy capacityaddition. Energiewende or energy transition will result in a high level of penetration of renewable energy in the power systems around the world. Somecountries like Denmark and regions like Texas, already have upto 50% or even more penetration ofrenewable energy. On some instances, Denmarkand other countries, receive 100% of their electricity requirements from wind energy.High penetration of renewable energy, in particularwind energy, due to its fluctuating nature, presentchallenges in integrating it with the conventionalpower system or the electricity grid.In an earlier report, WWEA has assessed the worldwide potential for utilization of wind energy at 95Electricity generation has grown in most parts of theworld; however, maximum growth has taken placein developing and even under developed countries.Wind energy deployment has also been on a rise andwhile regions like China, US, Europe and India aremature wind energy markets, there are many countries that are emergent markets or potential futuremarkets, these include south-east Asia, Africa, LatinAmerica, middle East and central Asian and EastEuropean countries.In recent years, Germany and many other European countries have made a serious effort towardsenergy transition, to step off from the Hydrocarbonplatform and to create a Renewable Energy Platform. This movement also known as Energiewende,is about transition of the national energy portfolioA WWEA Technical Commitee Report on Grid Integration3

Wind Energy wind-resource-assessment-report/).Suchassessed capacity is more than enough to build aworldwide 100% RE scenario in a foreseeable future. Wind power penetration in the conventionalpower system is still quite small at 4% (Source:WWEA). It is imperative that significant additionalcontribution to the grid from this renewable energyresource, would pose serious technological and evenpolicy and regulatory challenges. Many of thesechallenges, have been worked upon across the worldin various institutions, research establishments andamong the grid operators.In this report, first and foremost, we present an overview of the grid integration issues to highlight thefact that most of these issues are technology and gridmanagement related, have been partially resolved andare indeed surmountable. We then look at trends inelectricity generation across the world to arrive at low,medium and high renewable energy scenarios by theyear 2050. The report is prepared with the objectiveof supporting all other worldwide initiatives towards100% RE so that indeed we can step off from theHydrocarbon platform and on to a Renewable Energy Platform.1.1 Wind Power GrowthExponential growth in wind power developmentacross the world, particularly in the last few years,has lead to wind energy occupying a prominentposition in the power sector. Continued technological development and innovation in design andmanufacturing has resulted in wind turbines beingdeployed on a large scale in onshore projects andto a significant extent in offshore projects. Todaywith wind contributing nearly 4% of overall electricity generation, 393 GW of installed generationcapacity and deployment in more than 100 countries (Source: WWEA); modern wind turbineshave made the transition from a fringe technologyto a mainstream electricity generation option. Themain drivers for this very significant thrust in technology, innovation and worldwide deployment areenergy security, climate change and energy accesswhile employment and economic development areadded benefits.Figure1.2: Half decadal cumulative wind farm installations (1985-2013) (GW)35030030025

2.0 Wind energy Grid integration - an overview 11. 2.1 Policy & Regulatory 13 2.2 Wind Turbine Technology 14 2.3 Wind Forecasting 15 2.4 Rest of the Grid 16 . Figure 1.4: A typical Offshore wind farm 5 Figure 1.5: Wind turbine components 6 Figure 1.6: Trends in ratings of wind turbines 6