Meeting The 2020 Renewable Energy Targets: Filling The Offshore Wind .
Energy, utilities and miningMeeting the 2020 renewable energy targets:Filling the offshore wind financing gap
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Meeting the 2020 renewable energy targets: Filling the offshore wind financing gapContentsIntroduction2Executive summary31. The UK renewable energy targets5 What are the targets? What are the implications for power generation?2. The ‘make or break’ role of offshore wind6 How much needs to be built and how fast? The pre-construction financing gap3. Resolving the pre-construction financing issue10 Who could invest? What would make them invest? Attracting pension and life fund investment4. Moving forward: solutions to boost pre-construction financing12 Solutions to reduce construction phase risk Solutions to improve short-term returnsPricewaterhouseCoopers – Energy, utilities and mining 1
Meeting the 2020 renewable energy targets: Filling the offshore wind financing gapIntroductionThe UK’s power utilities sector faces immense investmentchallenges over the coming decade. The main challenge is the partthe sector needs to play in responding to climate change andprotecting security of supply, whilst keeping energy affordable tothe consumer.Offshore wind generation is a key component of the renewable energy strategy, andwill be critical to achieving the target to deliver over 30% of electricity generationfrom renewable sources by 2020. While there are a number of challenges to deliversignificant volumes of offshore wind, the most significant is likely to be theavailability of finance to support the construction phase of offshore wind projects.In this report, PricewaterhouseCoopers1 (PwC) looks at the role that offshore windneeds to play in delivering the renewable energy strategy, the investment levelsrequired, and the constraints on securing that investment. A quantum leap inoffshore wind capacity is needed and, with it, an equal leap in investment if we areto avoid a situation later in the decade where time runs out on the UK’s ability toachieve the 2020 renewable energy target.At a time when the new government will be considering the best way to respond tothe considerable energy challenges facing the UK, our report outlines four solutionsthat could resolve the pre-construction financing constraint facing offshore wind.The solutions seek to specifically address the barrier to investment by creatingmechanisms to either limit the risk associated with the construction phase or toimprove short-term returns, without unduly pushing excess costs on to the consumer.These are starting points rather than final answers and we hope they will helpstimulate debate on how best to attract greater offshore wind farm investment.Michael HurleyPartner, Global energy, utilitiesand mining advisory leaderRonan O’ReganDirector, energy and utilitiesPricewaterhouseCoopers LLPJuly 20101 ‘PricewaterhouseCoopers’ refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (a limited liability partnership in the United Kingdom) or, as the context requires,the PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network, each of which is a separate legal entity.2 PricewaterhouseCoopers – Energy, utilities and mining
Meeting the 2020 renewable energy targets: Filling the offshore wind financing gapExecutive summaryThe UK Renewable EnergyStrategy relies on investmentin renewable power generationto deliver around half (49%) ofits target of 15% of gross finalenergy consumption comingfrom renewable sources by2020. Offshore wind plays a‘make or break’ role. It willneed to deliver some 12GW,or 45%, of the additional circa27GW renewable generationneeded to reach the 2020renewable energy target.To reach the target will require a rapidincrease in the offshore wind constructionrate. In 2009, 0.3GW of offshore windcapacity was completed in the UK.In an optimistic scenario we could stillachieve the required average roll-outrate to reach the 2020 target. However,there are a number of constraints whichthreaten this. These include supplychain bottle necks (including people withthe right skills mix), issues of obtainingconsents, and access to the grid, butperhaps the most significant barrier is thedifficulty that developers face in securingfinancing pre-construction. If thisfinancing issue can be resolved on alarge scale it would not only enablesufficient investments, but would driveconfidence within the supply chain andhelp ease other constraints. It would alsoprovide a strong signal to the marketthat the offshore wind deploymenttarget is achievable and realistic. Thedanger is that, unless these limitingconstraints are eased soon, we will besignificantly short of the required roll-outpath and targets will not be met.The problem is that the balance of riskand returns needs to be sufficient toattract investors. Projects faceconsiderable construction, technology,operations and maintenance (O&M),price and volume risks with many ofthese front-loaded with returns backended. Historically the large utilities havedominated the development of offshorewind. However these companies havemany competing pressures for capitalwhich may limit their ability to fund allthe required offshore wind projects. Akey reason why the financial constraint isan issue is that project finance to supportthe development phase of offshore windprojects has not been available to UKprojects to date. The challenge for banksand other financial investors is to takeconstruction risk in the absence of anengineering procurement contract(‘EPC’) wrap from the sponsors. Even ifsome project developers can overcomethis challenge, there are doubts as towhether this can be resolved for allprojects requiring project finance.We believe that current incentivemechanisms, in the form of RenewableObligation Certificates (ROCs) andthe carbon price (even with a floor),while important are unlikely to addressthe specific challenges of offshorepre-construction financing. Usingthese incentives on their own toboost investment would run the riskof pushing excessive cost onto theconsumer. Instead, this report outlinesways in which the incentives couldbe supplemented with solutions thatspecifically address the risk associatedwith the construction phase andsolutions that stimulate investmentby improving short-term returns.In particular, we consider ways in whichoffshore wind farm development couldbe opened up to pension and life fundinvestments. The energy sector,including offshore wind, can in principleprovide long term stable cash flowswhich are the requirement for the like ofpension funds. However this will requirea new way of looking at the allocationof risks amongst all the stake holdersinvolved in developing this new industry.We have considered four potentialsolutions to the issue designed toeither reduce risk or improve returnsfor investors in offshore wind projects.These are:Reducing riskSolution 1 – underwriting risk by aconsumer levySolution 2 – a regulated asset schemeImproving returnsSolution 3 – additional ROCs for alimited periodSolution 4 – ISA bonds or an equity fundPricewaterhouseCoopers – Energy, utilities and mining 3
Meeting the 2020 renewable energy targets: Filling the offshore wind financing gapSolutions 1 and 2 address the specificrisks associated with the constructionphase of offshore wind projects with aview to attract investors with a low riskappetite, such as pension and insurancefunds, but also potentially open upaccess to project finance. We outline thetype of wind farm capital structure thesesolutions would make possible andshow how finance from the proposedGreen Investment Bank could playa role alongside much larger privateinvestments. Solutions 3 and 4 arefocused on increasing the return ofinvestments in the short term (the firstfew years of operation) to attract privateinvestors who would seek a higherreturn in order to accept the risksassociated with the construction phase,such as private equity houses, hedgefunds and individuals. A summary ofeach proposal is given in Figure 1 andthey are discussed in more detail inchapter 6.Each has its advantages anddisadvantages. We put them forward tostimulate discussion on how best totackle the scarcity of pre-constructionfinance and increase offshore wind farmdevelopment to put the achievement ofthe 2020 renewable energy targets on amore certain footing.Figure 1: Summary of potential solutionsSolution1Underwritten by aconsumer levyReduces constructionand technology risks2Regulated AssetschemeReduces constructiontechnology andprice/volume risks3Additional Rocs fora limited periodIncreases return4ISA Bonds or anequity fundDescriptionWho bearsthe cost?Impact on returnsBarriers to deliveryRisk sharing ofconstruction andtechnology risks (overa limited time period)Consumers directlythrough a levy butrecouped through lowerROC level when theproject is operationalRisk profile reducedand returns morecertain (insuranceagainst uncontrollablerisks)Levy based system isnot easy to implementDeveloper can sell atRAB value includingreturnRisk sharing withconsumerStable long-termrevenuesSuppliers and indirectlyconsumers through alevy in the event of arevenue short fall for theongoing revenue streamReduced risks for thedeveloper and a clearexit pathLong-term operatorhas price and volumeprotectionComplex to implementgiven that the RABscheme would requirea completely newregulatory regimeIncreased number ofROCs over the firstfew years to provideincreased returns forthe investor taking theconstruction riskSuppliers and indirectlyconsumers throughincreased ROCpaymentsVariable but potentiallyhigh returns in the shorttermRisk that supply chaincaptures higher marginsinstead of increasedreturnsRelatively easy toimplement since it isan amendment to theexisting regulatorystructureMake investments inoff-shore wind tax freefor the publicThe taxpayers in theform of reduced incometaxIncreased net returnsince free tax gainsProcess to allocatefunds to individualprojectsClear communicationto the public that itrepresents a potentiallysignificant riskIncreases returnSource: PwC analysis.4 PricewaterhouseCoopers – Energy, utilities and mining‘A solution toaddress thespecific risksassociated withthe constructionphase ofoffshore windprojects isrequired toattract investorswith a lowrisk appetite’
Meeting the 2020 renewable energy targets: Filling the offshore wind financing gap1. The UK renewable energy targetsWhat are the targets?The UK Renewable Energy Strategy setsa target of 15% of gross final energyconsumption to come from renewablesources by 2020, almost a sevenfoldincrease in the share of renewablesfrom 2008 levels. The strategy relieson investment in renewable powergeneration to deliver around half of thistarget with transport and renewable heatin buildings providing the remainder.These are ambitious targets across allsectors. They require 30% of power tocome from renewable generation; 12%of heat to be renewable; and 10% oftransport energy to be driven byrenewables, (see Figure 2). The newgovernment is yet to reconfirm the 2020targets but it should be noted that theLiberal Democrats have stated that theywould want to increase the power targetto 40% for 2020 and the coalition’sprogramme for government includes acommitment to ‘increase the target forenergy from renewable sources, subjectto the advice of the Climate ChangeCommittee’ (section 10, The Coalition:our programme for government,May 2010).Figure 2: Renewable energy target:2020 target compared to 2008Proportion renewables %The exact implications of the renewabletarget for power generation depend on avariety of factors, most notably whathappens to economic growth, andtherefore electricity demand, and alsothe impact of energy efficiency on powerconsumption. The UK energy regulator,Ofgem, has developed scenarios toexamine the prospects for secure andsustainable energy supplies over thenext 10-15 years, based on assumptionsabout high or low growth. We have takentheir ‘green stimulus’ scenario as the basisfor our projections, which is a scenariowhereby the renewable target is actuallyachieved. Key assumptions for thisscenario include relatively slow economicrecovery and curtailment of power demandthrough the successful implementationof energy efficiency measures.Figure 3 shows how demand is forecastto evolve under this scenario. In thesecircumstances, the 30% renewablepower target would require 103TWhof renewable power generation.To reach a total renewable output of103TWh by 2020, approximately 27GWof renewable capacity needs to bedeveloped in addition to the current levelof around 8GW. The strategy to deliverthis capacity will heavily depend on windgeneration. In line with the Ofgem ‘greenstimulus’ scenario the UK renewablestrategy states that an additional 23GWof wind generation capacity will beneeded. The split between offshore andonshore wind generation capacity is fairlyequal with 12GW of offshore wind and11GW of onshore wind (see Figure 4).Figure 4: Renewable targets compared tocurrent capacityCapacity (GW)4035.04.035302512.02015105027GW incrementalcapacity required11.07.83.50.93.42009Onshore wind2000 targetOffshore windOther renewablesSource: PwC analysis based on Ofgem’s Project Discovery(Oct 2009) and The UK Renewable Energy Strategy.Figure 3: Ofgem Green Stimulus scenario:demand projection with illustrativerenewables path, 2010-202030.030What are the implications of therenewable targets for 2020 target1.0HeatPowerCategory2008Source: The UK Renewable Energy Strategy,HM Government, 2009.2.2Total100500201020122014Non renewable201620182020RenewableSource: Ofgem Project Discovery (Oct 2009), PwC analysis.PricewaterhouseCoopers – Energy, utilities and mining 5
Meeting the 2020 renewable energy targets: Filling the offshore wind financing gap2. The ‘make or break’ role of offshore windOffshore wind plays a ‘make or break’role as the largest single contributor tothe UK’s expansion in renewable powergeneration. As discussed in the previoussection, offshore wind would need todeliver some 12GW of the additionalcirca 27GW renewable generationneeded to reach the 30% target.How much needs to be builtand how fast?The amount of offshore generationneeded is a quantum leap above the1GW of total capacity that had beenreached by April 2010. It will require arapid increase in the rate of offshorewind construction. The offshore windpipeline is healthy at close to 50GW,but the bulk of the projects are in a veryearly stage of the development cycle.Of the total pipeline some 32GW isattributable to the recently awardedRound 3 projects and a further circa6GW to early stage projects in Scottishterritorial waters. Nevertheless if projectscould move steadily through the pipelinethere are a sufficient number of projectsto be able to meet the 2020 target of12GW additional offshore wind capacity.The problem is not the potential pipelineof projects but the roll-out rate. In 20090.3GW of offshore wind capacity wascompleted in the UK. However, the12GW target implies an average annualroll-out rate of 1.1GW, which issignificantly above the historical buildrate (see Figure 5).Figure 5: Required offshore average annualbuild rate compared to historical dataGW1.21.111.00.80.60.40.20.00.280.06 0.060.09 0.090.100.002003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20102020ActualAverageSource: PwC analysis based on RenewableUK (formerly theBritish Wind Energy Association) data.RenewableUK (formerly the British WindEnergy Association) has developed anumber of forecast scenarios for UKoffshore wind based on potential delaysand barriers affecting economic viability,connections to the grid, ability to getconsents etc. Figure 6 shows the highand low scenarios respectively comparedto the average required roll-out rate tomeet the 30% renewable target by 2020.These forecasts exclude Round 3 as wellas the recently approved extension ofexisting wind farm sites, potentiallyadding 2GW of capacity, which will notstart to have an impact until 2014.Figure 6: Offshore wind roll-out forecastAnnual completed capacity 15Low scenario (based on delays and delivery constraints)High scenario (based on delays and delivery constraints)Required average to meet the 30% targetSource: RenewableUK (formerly the British Wind EnergyAssociation), PwC analysis.The roll-out rate forecast is set toincrease significantly compared to 2009and will be helped by the increase in the6 PricewaterhouseCoopers – Energy, utilities and miningaverage size of offshore wind farms. In anoptimistic scenario the offshore windroll-out rate could reach the requiredaverage to meet the 2020 target beforethe middle of the decade. However, thereis a significant risk that constraints suchas financing, supply chain limitationsand delays in accessing the grid willresult in a roll-out rate that is well belowthe required average. In this scenario asignificant increase would have to takeplace in the second half of the decadeif the UK is to meet the 2020 target.Our view is that it is highly risky to planfor a significant increase towards thesecond half of the decade to reach thetarget, particularly if it emerges that thepower sector needs to deliver in excessof 30% from renewable sources. It isdesirable to attain a roll-out rate inline with the high scenario outlined byRenewableUK and maintain it, since itis close to the required average and willallow for a smoother scaling up of thesupply chain. To do this, it will be criticalto take active steps to resolve thebarriers that hamper the deploymentrate. It is not a long-term issue that canwait but, rather, must be addressed nowgiven the long lead times involved. Agreater sense of urgency is needed.The pre-constructionfinancing gapThere are a range of constraints on theexpansion of offshore wind. They includesupply chain capacity limitations,planning delays and restricted access togrid connections. However, the mostsignificant barrier is the difficulty thatdevelopers face in securing preconstruction funding. If this could beresolved it would not only enablesufficient investment, but would driveconfidence within the supply chain andhelp ease other constraints. It would alsoprovide a strong signal to the marketthat the offshore wind deployment targetis achievable and realistic.
Meeting the 2020 renewable energy targets: Filling the offshore wind financing gapThe total investment needed issubstantial. An estimated 33bn or sowould be needed between now and2020 to develop 12GW of offshoregeneration and a further circa 7bnis needed for the associated offshoretransmission connections. The actual netfunding requirement from the developerpoint of view would be less becausecompleted projects would provideoperating revenues during this periodand expect it will be possible torefinance projects once they areoperational. This cash can be reusedin new projects and thus reduce netfunding requirement.What level of net funding is required toaccelerate the expansion of offshore windand avoid the high risk of leaving much ofthe roll-out until later in the decade? Ouranalysis shows that a rapid increase to acumulative net funding requirement froma developer point of view of around 10bn would be needed for generationcapacity alone to achieve the 1.1GWaverage annual roll-out rate we identifiedin the previous section. A key assumptionto limit the capital requirement is thatwind farms can be project financed at70% one year after they have becomeoperational and that the capital releasedcan be reinvested into the preconstruction phase of new projects.Figure 7: Hypothetical build scenario andpeak funding requirementRequired averageroll-out rate (30% target)GW1.4 bn141.2121.0100.88Rapid ramp-up offunding requirementto c.10bn0.640.220.002012201420162018Annual build ratePeak funding requirement (cumulative)Offshore wind faces immense competitionfor funding. Ofgem has estimated that thecombined power and heat sector needsto make investments approaching 200bn over the coming decade. Thisis based on a lower economic growthscenario and includes investment areas,such as renewable and conventionalpower generation, renewable heat,transmission, but also investments inenergy efficiency measures and smartmeters. It is estimated that meetingthe renewable targets will require anadditional circa 100bn in investmentin comparison to a business as usualscenario whereby the focus remainon conventional power generationtechnologies like gas turbines.The 200bn or so required is an averageof about 17bn per annum. This isdouble the annual capital expenditureprogrammes of the big utilities combinedwhich, taking the biggest six andNational Grid together, totalled 8.6bn in2009. Independent developers will alsoplay a role in offshore wind developmentbut the lion’s share of development willneed to come from the big utilitycompanies in the absence of projectfinance or new sources of equity.Figure 8: Total UK Capex by the Big 6 utilitiesand National Grid bn108.687.76460.42010Competition for funding20202020082009Source: Company annual reports and presentations,PwC analysis.Source: PwC analysis.PricewaterhouseCoopers – Energy, utilities and mining 7
Meeting the 2020 renewable energy targets: Filling the offshore wind financing gap‘UK offshorewind investmentnot only hasto competewith a range ofother pressingpower industryinvestmentdemands, butalso has tomake its case inan internationalcorporateinvestmentcontext’The big utility companies have asignificant international footprint.Our analysis of the four utilities witha predominant focus outside the UKshows that their UK capital spendingaccounted for just 14% of their totalcapital expenditure (see Figure 9). Thus,UK offshore wind investment not onlyhas to compete with a range of otherpressing power industry investmentdemands, such as nuclear and gasstorage, but also has to make its casein an international corporate investmentcontext in which geopolitical factorshave to be considered alongsidefinancial returns.Figure 9: 2009 capital expenditureby company and territoryEuro rolaTotalProportion invested in the UKSource: Company annual reports and presentations,PwC analysis.Constraints on fundingThe issue of competition for fundsoutlined in the previous section iscompounded by the risks associatedwith offshore wind power and thecontinuing sub-optimal banking andinvestment climate. So far there hasbeen no availability in the UK of projectfinance to support the developmentphase of offshore wind projects preconstruction. This is in contrast toonshore wind projects where projectfinance is available if the project isof sufficient scale.8 PricewaterhouseCoopers – Energy, utilities and miningOffshore wind developers have onlybeen able to finance new projects oncean existing farm has an operational trackrecord. An example of this is Centrica’sre-financing of the Lynn and InnerDowsing and Glens of Foudland windfarms. However, this model creates aninherent time lag and as describedabove will not be able to support therequired development rate to meet the30% renewable power target.The tight funding and banking climatehas been of little help, but the mainreason for the inability to project financeoffshore wind farms pre-construction isthat the risk is deemed to be too high(see panel opposite) for the banks totake onboard. The project sponsorswould need to provide some form ofguarantee to cover construction risksbefore banks will consider lendingpre-construction. Even if some projectdevelopers can overcome this challenge,there are doubts as to whether this canbe resolved for all projects requiringproject finance.The result is that offshore winddevelopers must finance offshore windprojects largely from their balancesheets or wait to roll over financing onceprojects become operational which,as discussed above, has its limitations.However, even the large utilitycompanies are not in a position tocountenance funding to the scale of therequired offshore wind investment fromtheir balance sheets and, as we haveseen in the previous section, the levelof investment implies a doubling ofcurrent capital expenditure.
Meeting the 2020 renewable energy targets: Filling the offshore wind financing gapOffshore wind risksConstruction riskUntested construction techniques, unpredictable weatherconditions, and the potentially severe consequences ofaccidents all create a high level of construction risk foroffshore wind projects. The projects that are currently beingdeveloped are relatively close to shore and in relativelyshallow waters. Much of the offshore wind expansion will bein deeper waters and as far as 200km out at sea.Technology riskThe current technology platform, based on 3.6MW turbines(and to a lesser extent 5MW), is starting to develop anoperational track-record, reducing the technology risk forprojects based on the same technology. However the nextgeneration turbines will have an increased capacity greaterthan 5MW, which is untested and will heighten thetechnology risk.Operations and Maintenance (O&M) riskThere is uncertainty about the required operations andmaintenance costs over the life time of an offshore windfarm project. This cost is related to the technology risk sincethe reliability determines the required O&M costs, but it alsodepends on the impact of adverse weather conditions andthe availability of required equipment and vessels. Operatorsare starting to get a better understanding for the O&M coststhrough their early offshore projects, but as the technologyevolves and farms are deployed further out at sea, the riskwill increase.Volume riskThe volume risk relates to the unpredictability of the loadfactor that a particular wind farm will be able to achieve.The average load factor is dependent on the prevailingconditions applicable to a site, but also on annual variationsdue to weather patterns. This risk can be better understood,but not eliminated, by surveying the wind patterns at a siteprior to commencing construction.Price Volatility riskThe revenues that a wind farm operator is able to secureon a per MWh basis have three components – the MWhoutput, the wholesale power price and the value ofRenewable Obligation Certificates (ROCs). As depicted inFigure 10 the electricity price in the wholesale spot market ishighly volatile. It is possible that the volatility will increaseover time since a higher proportion of variable output windgeneration could result in very low or even negativewholesale prices when the wind output is high and highprices when there is limited wind generation.Figure 10: UK wholesale power spot price (weekly rolling average)Price ( 01/01/200701/01/200801/01/200901/01/2010Source: Elexon, PwC analysis.Based on the experience from project finance-backedonshore wind farms, independent operators typically do notsell output on the spot market, but through a PowerPurchase Agreement (PPA) with an off-taker. However suchagreements typically have the power price linked to themarket price, or at best only locked for a shorter time period,and the developer therefore will have an exposure to themarket price.The ROC component of the revenue stream is currentlybased on two ROCs per MWh produced and split out intotwo parts: A fixed amount that is RPI indexed over time(‘buy-out price’) A variable component that is dependent on the overallnumber of ROCs that are presented to Ofgem by the UKsuppliers compared to the target (‘recycled benefit’)The introduction of a ROC ‘headroom mechanism’ will leadto the buy-out price being viewed as a floor price.A cap and collar mechanism or a feed in tariff are ways tomitigate the price risk and were discussed as potentialoptions by the previous government.PricewaterhouseCoopers – Energy, utilities and mining 9
Meeting the 2020 renewable energy targets: Filling the offshore wind financing gap3. Resolving the pre-construction financing issueIn the previous chapter we saw that amuch faster acceleration in offshorewind development is needed to avoida situation where time runs out on theachievement of the 2020 renewableenergy target. But pre-constructionfunding is unlikely to come forwardquickly enough to deliver the scale ofroll-out needed to put offshore wind oncourse to deliver its 45% share of therenewable power generation target.In this section we look at solutions toaddress the problem of the scarcity ofpre-construction financing.Figure 11: Availability of funds and attitude to risk by source of fundsSourceof fundsAvailabilityof fundsDeveloper equityLPension fundsInvestmentprofileAttitude to specific risk currently present for offshore windConstructionTechnicalPriceVolumeWilling to invest as long as return inline with risk (has control of projects)AUAPPPHRequires lower but certain returmsUAUAUAPInsurance fundsHRequires lower but certain returmsUAUAUAPInfrastructurefundsMLow to medium risk depending onfund profiles (risk spreading key)UAUAPPPrivate investorsMCan accept a range of risks providedthat the return is appropriatePPPPProject finance(banks)MRisk adverseUAUAUAPWho could invest?Figure 11 reviews the various potentialsources of funds available and theirattitude to the risks inherent in offshorewind generation. Banks, althoughthey have some availabil
2020. Offshore wind plays a 'make or break' role. It will need to deliver some 12GW, or 45%, of the additional circa 27GW renewable generation needed to reach the 2020 renewable energy target. To reach the target will require a rapid increase in the offshore wind construction rate. In 2009, 0.3GW of offshore wind capacity was completed in .
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