Monthly Equity Monitor - May 2022 - NBC
Monthly Equity MonitorEconomics and StrategySeptember 2022HighlightsBy Stéfane Marion / Matthieu Arseneau After falling into bear market territory on June 16 for the first time since 2020, the MSCI ACWI regained a significantportion of its losses in July and mid-August thanks to a better-than-expected Q2 earnings season, beforeweakening again after a particularly hawkish statement from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. This is a challengingenvironment for most equity markets, made even more difficult by the announced intention of central banks toincrease monetary tightening. For now, the most compelling argument for higher interest rates made by the Fed is the resilience of labor markets.While payroll employment has indeed surprised on the upside in recent months, the additional headcounts havebeen part-time. Full-time employment, meanwhile, has stagnated since the beginning of 2022. This suggests thatcompanies may be on the cusp of cutting back on hiring in the coming months if sales do not pick up to protectprofit margin. A more uncertain employment outlook makes the path of future rate hikes all the more perilous for equity markets,which also face rising long-term Treasury yields that prevent an expansion of PE multiples. Even at 3.2% currently,there could still be some upside in 10-year Treasury yields as the term premium trades negatively again. In ourview, investors are likely to demand positive compensation for holding longer maturities in a more volatileenvironment for growth, government indebtedness, and inflation. We have argued for several months that the S&P/TSX can be a defensive play in a geopolitical contextcharacterized by food and energy insecurity. The impact of EU sanctions on Russian oil could help supportCanadian energy stocks. Unlike many other major food suppliers that have been hit by drought, Canada shouldalso enjoy a bumper crop in 2022. In addition, real household disposable income remains above its pre-covidtrend as the federal and provincial governments redistribute some of the huge 2022 personal and corporate taxwindfall to consumers that mitigates the possibility of a deep deterioration in the consumer credit cycle and asurge in mortgage delinquencies at Canadian banks. Our asset allocation is modified this month to reflect a more uncertain geopolitical outlook due to increasingenergy and food insecurity and more aggressive central banks. Our equity weighting is reduced by three pointsin favor of cash. Geographically, we are cutting U.S. equities by 2% to underweight and trimming Canada by 1%,which remains overweight relative to our benchmark. Fixed income remains underweight for now.
Monthly Equity MonitorEconomics and StrategyAfter falling into bear market territory on June 16 for the firsttime since 2020, the MSCI ACWI regained a significant portionof its losses in July and mid-August thanks to a better-thanexpected Q2 earnings season, before weakening again aftera particularly hawkish statement from Fed Chairman JeromePowell (chart). This, despite more favourable readings oninflation.weakest since the global economy emerged from recession in2020 (chart).World: Manufacturing sector on the verge of contractingJP Morgan/Markit Global Manufacturing PMI. Last observation: August 202258Index5654ExpansionWorld: Don’t fight the Fed right now52MSCI ACWI (as of Aug. 31, 2022)48900 index4685044Contraction50World: Equity rebound unravels4280040750387002019202020212022NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Refinitiv)6506005505004502019202020212022The weakness is particularly acute in Europe, where soaringenergy prices and supply interruptions due to the war inUkraine have made some manufacturing unprofitable, forcingsome industries to cut back. Services too, are now showingcontraction (chart).NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Refinitiv)Eurozone: Second consecutive contraction in private-sector activityMarkit Flash PMI. Last observation: August 2022Index60Mfg.Serv.Expansion655550Comp.4540MSCI composite index: Price PerformanceContractionEven after the latest decline, most major regions continue topost decent gains so far in Q3, with the exception of emergingAsia, which remains constrained by the negative economicimpact of China's zero-covid policy (chart). Unfortunately,what's left of the gains are at risk due to a more uncertainoutlook for profits.3530M onth toQuarter toYear to25datedatedate20-3.13.6-15.6M SCI World-3.64.0-15.7M SCI USA-4.14.8-18.0M SCI Canada-2.21.7-9.5M SCI ACWIM SCI Europe-4.11.7-13.8M SCI Pac ific ex Jp-1.11.6-7.5M SCI Japan1.05.1-2.3M SCI EM0.80.5-14.5M SCI EM EM EA-0.23.9-19.9M SCI EM Latin Americ a-0.63.2-4.6M SCI EM Asia1.2-0.3-14.38/31/2022NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Refinitiv)15102019202020212022NBF Economics and Strategy (Source: Markit via Refinitiv)Also, in China, Beijing continues to implement a "zero COVID"policy characterized by intermittent government shutdowns ofthe economy. This practice, coupled with severe droughtconditions that forced some industries to curtail production,pushed the diffusion index of manufacturing activity intonegative territory in August for the third time already in 2022(chart).For one, the global economy continues to lose momentum. Thediffusion index for global manufacturing activity is currently the2
Monthly Equity MonitorEconomics and StrategyU.S.: Final sales of domestic businessesChina: Zero-covid policy zero growthNominal vs. volume salesCaixin/Markit Manufacturing PMI. Last observation: August 2022565524Index% inal84Volume04645-444-8434241-12198040NBF Economics and Strategy (data via BEA tables 5.8.5B and 02022NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Refinitiv)Of course, the upside of below-trend growth is that there is lessdemand and less inflation. But it also means less pricing powerfor companies at a time when volume sales are disappointing.In the U.S., the selling price received by domestic producers fortheir output is rising at its slowest pace since late last year(chart).Anemic sales volumes with lower pricing power in manyeconomies do not bode well for strong earnings growth. Yetcurrent forecasts still call for earnings per share growth of 7.3%over the next 12 months for the MSCI ACWI, with all majorregions expected to post higher profits (table).MSCI composite index: EPS Performance202220232024M SCI ACWI54.810.96.08.07.3M SCI World55.211.15.97.67.3M SCI USA52.67.98.19.17.5M SCI Canada75.223.12.23.18.2Producer Price Index. Last observation: July 2022y/y % chg.1110 9.8%98 7.6%765Excludingfood andenergy12 months2021U.S.: Pricing power is eroding122025forwardM SCI Europe66.517.12.25.66.6M SCI Pacific ex Jp45.313.34.92.25.6M SCI Japan0.042.611.03.47.5M SCI EM52.59.96.210.57.3M SCI EM EM EA63.615.28.56.210.03M SCI EM Latin America190.019.7-6.41.11.32M SCI EM Asia39.37.48.312.88.04Headline18/31/20220NBF Economics and Strategy (data via 2020202120222023NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Bloomberg)This is an important development to keep in mind because ofthe nature of the upside surprise of the second quarterearnings season, which saw 70% of S&P 500 companies reportrevenues above analyst expectations. There is reason tobelieve that it was almost exclusively due to sales priceinflation. We note that volume sales of U.S corporations wereessentially flat over the past year (chart).This is a challenging environment for most equity markets,made even more difficult by the announced intention of centralbanks to increase monetary tightening. On August 26, JeromePowell referenced none other than Paul Volcker, who ran theFed during the worst years of stagflation in the late 1970s andearly 1980s, in his determination to bring inflation down duringhis Jackson Hole speech. Powell was about as hawkish as youcan be as a central banker. This speech also sets us up for aslightly higher federal funds rate than we had envisioned earlierthis summer (3.50% versus 3.0%). If the stage is set for a periodof below-trend growth, we don't think the new fed funds levelis high enough to break the economy. That is if Mr. Powell readsthe tea leaves of the economy as we do and soon recognizesthat the end of his tightening campaign is in sight.3
Monthly Equity MonitorEconomics and StrategyFor now, the most compelling argument for higher interestrates made by the Fed is the resilience of labor markets. Whilepayroll employment has indeed surprised on the upside inrecent months, the additional headcounts have been parttime. Full-time employment, meanwhile, has stagnated sincethe beginning of 2022 (chart).U.S.: Chief executives are concernedConference Board CEO Confidence Index85%8075706560U.S.: Full-time jobs are stalling55Full-time workers as per household employment 198519901995200020052010201520202025NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Refinitiv)1221201181161142019202020212022NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Refinitiv)This suggests that companies may be on the cusp of cuttingback on hiring in the coming months if sales do not pick up toprotect profit margin. The gap between total payrollemployment growth (including part-time work) and salesvolume at U.S. companies is currently the largest in over 50years - chart.A more uncertain employment outlook makes the path offuture rate hikes all the more perilous for equity markets, whichalso face rising long-term Treasury yields that prevent anexpansion of PE multiples. Even at 3.2% currently, there couldstill be some upside in 10-year Treasury yields as the termpremium trades negatively again (chart).U.S.: Negative term premium is hard to justifyTerm premium on a 10-year zero coupon 13201420152016201720182019202020212022NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Fred)In our view, investors are likely to demand positivecompensation for holding longer maturities in a more volatileenvironment for growth, government indebtedness, andinflation.The sharp decline in CEO confidence over the past few monthsalso points to a lower propensity of corporate budgetmanagers to increase their workforce (chart).S&P/TSX: A defensive play?Unlike many other equity markets, the S&P/TSX has avoided abear market this year. It’s rebound in the third quarter was thusless impressive than elsewhere so far in Q3. As of August 31, theCanadian benchmark is down 8.9% in 2022. Though mostsectors are up quarter-to-date, only Energy ( 27.4%), Utilities4
Monthly Equity MonitorEconomics and Strategy( 3.6%) and consumer staples ( 3.6%) show positive returnsyear-to-date - table.S&P/TSX composite index: Price PerformanceCanada: Bumper crop expected in 2022Wheat production(1950-2022)3836Canola (rapeseed) production(1950-2022)22Millions of metric tonnesM onth toQuarter toYear &P TSXHEALTH CARE183216CO NS. DISC.1.39.6-10.2UTILITIES0.84.64.02010M ATERIALS-0.4-1.1-10.0188INDUSTRIALS-1.39.0-1.816CO NS. STAP.-1.45.43.614TELECO .3-2.7-1.5-12.8REAL ESTATE-4.81.7-21.6IT-7.61.7-54.6BANKSMillions of metric 020019501960197019801990200020102020NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Statistics Canada table 32-10-0359-01)8/31/2022NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Refinitiv)Despite aggressive monetary tightening in Canada, theearnings backdrop benefited from the best terms of trade onrecord due to high commodity prices (chart).These developments should keep profits relatively resilientand labour markets tight. In addition, real householddisposable income remains above its pre-covid trend as thefederal and provincial governments redistribute some of thehuge 2022 personal and corporate tax windfall to consumers(chart).S&P/TSX: Terms of trade were a boon for profitsTerms of trade and trailing earnings for the S&P/TSX120RatioEPSTerms of trade(left)1161121,7001,6001,500EPS 142016201820202022NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Refinitiv)Although the growth outlook is becoming difficult for Canadaas well, we have argued for several months that the S&P/TSXcan be a defensive play in a geopolitical contextcharacterized by food and energy insecurity. The impact of EUsanctions on Russian oil could help support Canadian energystocks. Unlike many other major food suppliers that have beenhit by drought, Canada should also enjoy a bumper crop in2022 (chart).This mitigates the possibility of a deep deterioration in theconsumer credit cycle and a surge in mortgage delinquenciesat Canadian banks, whose profits are now expected to growby only 4 per cent over the next 12 months (table).5
Monthly Equity MonitorEconomics and StrategyS&P/TSX composite index: EPS analysts expectationsEarnings per shareEPS % growth20212022202312m Trail. 12m Forw.S&P 9312m Forw.832484-713M 147197463134CONS. DISC.17218121517720351915CONS. STAP.3724014473904278129HEALTH CARE-5-1611-103N.M .N.M .N.M 9712513211613028612REAL ESTATE430308212344244-28-31-298/31/2022N.M. Not meaningfulNBF Economics and Strategy (data via Refinitiv)Asset allocationNBF Asset AllocationOur asset allocation is modified this month to reflect a moreuncertain geopolitical outlook due to increasing energy andfood insecurity and more aggressive central banks. Our equityweighting is reduced by three points in favor of cash.Geographically, we are cutting U.S. equities by 2% tounderweight and trimming Canada by 1%, which remainsoverweight relative to our benchmark. In our view, theS&P/TSX is better positioned to weather stagflation fears andits forward PE is historically low (chart). Fixed income remainsunderweight for now.BenchmarkNBFChange (pp)(%)Recommendation (%)EquitiesCanadian EquitiesU.S. EquitiesForeign Equities (EAFE)2024-12018-253Emerging markets545Fixed Income5Cash100TotalNBF Economics and Strategy34210100 3Sector allocationOur sector allocation remains unchanged this month.NBF Market ForecastNBF Market ForecastCanadaUnited StatesIndex LevelActualQ4 2022Sep-02-22TargetIndex Level20,000S&P 500Q4 2022158563712.6Assumptions19,271S&P/TSXActualQ4 2022Sep-02-22Target3,9244,0002186418.0Q4 20222216518.1.AssumptionsLevel:Earnings *DividendPE Trailing (implied)152661412.6* Before extraordinary items, source ThomsonLevel:Earnings *DividendPE Trailing (implied)* S&P operating earnings, bottom up.NBF Economics and Strategy6
Monthly Equity MonitorEconomics and StrategyNBF Fundamental Sector Rotation - September 2022Name (Sector/Industry)Recommendation S&P/TSX weightEnergyEnergy Equipment & ServicesOil, Gas & Consumable aterialsChemicalsContainers & PackagingMetals & Mining *GoldPaper & Forest ProductsOverweightMarket WeightOverweightOverweightOverweightMarket Weight11.2%2.5%0.4%2.4%5.4%0.5%IndustrialsCapital GoodsCommercial & Professional ServicesTransportationMarket WeightOverweightUnderweightMarket Weight12.7%1.8%3.6%7.3%Consumer DiscretionaryAutomobiles & ComponentsConsumer Durables & ApparelConsumer ServicesRetailingMarket WeightUnderweightOverweightMarket WeightMarket Weight3.5%0.8%0.5%0.9%1.3%Consumer StaplesFood & Staples RetailingFood, Beverage & TobaccoMarket WeightMarket WeightMarket Weight4.3%3.7%0.6%Health CareMarket WeightHealth Care Equipment & ServicesMarket WeightPharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life SciencesMarket Weight0.4%0.1%0.3%FinancialsBanksDiversified FinancialsInsuranceMarket WeightMarket WeightMarket WeightMarket Weight31.2%21.1%4.3%5.9%Information TechnologyUnderweight5.2%Telecommunication ServicesMarket Weight5.0%UtilitiesUnderweight5.3%Real EstateUnderweight2.6%* Metals & Mining excluding the Gold Sub-Industry for the recommendation.7
Monthly Equity MonitorEconomics and StrategyEconomics and StrategyMontreal Office514-879-2529Toronto Office416-869-8598Stéfane MarionMatthieu ArseneauWarren LovelyChief Economist and StrategistDeputy Chief EconomistChief Rates and Public Sector bc.cawarren.lovely@nbc.caKyle DahmsDaren KingJocelyn PaquetTaylor SchleichEconomistEconomistEconomistRates n.paquet@nbc.cataylor.Schleich@nbc.caAlexandra DucharmeAngelo KatsorasEconomistGeopolitical c.caGeneralThis Report was prepared by National Bank Financial, Inc. (NBF), (a Canadian investment dealer, member of IIROC), an indirect wholly owned subsidiary ofNational Bank of Canada. National Bank of Canada is a public company listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange.The particulars contained herein were obtained from sources which we believe to be reliable but are not guaranteed by us and may be incomplete and maybe subject to change without notice. The information is current as of the date of this document. Neither the author nor NBF assumes any obligation to updatethe information or advise on further developments relating to the topics or securities discussed. The opinions expressed are based upon the author(s) analysisand interpretation of these particulars and are not to be construed as a solicitation or offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned herein, and nothing in thisReport constitutes a representation that any investment strategy or recommendation contained herein is suitable or appropriate to a recipient’s individualcircumstances. In all cases, investors should conduct their own investigation and analysis of such information before taking or omitting to take any action inrelation to securities or markets that are analyzed in this Report. The Report alone is not intended to form the basis for an investment decision, or to replace anydue diligence or analytical work required by you in making an investment decision.This Report is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. This Report is not directed at you if NBF or any affiliatedistributing this Report is prohibited or restricted by any legislation or regulation in any jurisdiction from making it available to you. You should satisfy yourselfbefore reading it that NBF is permitted to provide this Report to you under relevant legislation and regulations.National Bank of Canada Financial Markets is a trade name used by National Bank Financial and National Bank of Canada Financial Inc.Canadian ResidentsNBF or its affiliates may engage in any trading strategies described herein for their own account or on a discretionary basis on behalf of certain clients and as marketconditions change, may amend or change investment strategy including full and complete divestment. The trading interests of NBF and its affiliates may also becontrary to any opinions expressed in this Report.NBF or its affiliates often act as financial advisor, agent or underwriter for certain issuers mentioned herein and may receive remuneration for its services. As wellNBF and its affiliates and/or their officers, directors, representatives, associates, may have a position in the securities mentioned herein and may make purchasesand/or sales of these securities from time to time in the open market or otherwise. NBF and its affiliates may make a market in securities mentioned in thisReport. This Report may not be independent of the proprietary interests of NBF and its affiliates.This Report is not considered a research product under Canadian law and regulation, and consequently is not governed by Canadian rules applicable to thepublication and distribution of research Reports, including relevant restrictions or disclosures required to be included in research Reports.
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NBF Fundamental Sector Rotation - May 2022 Name (Sector/Industry) Recommendation S&P/TSX weight Energy Overweight 18.0% Energy Equipment & Services Overweight 0.0% Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels Overweight 17.9% Materials Overweight 13.0% Chemicals Market Weight 2.5% Containers & Packaging Overweight 0.5% Metals & Mining * Overweight 2.7% Gold Overweight 6.7% Paper & Forest Products Market Weight .
Feb 19, 2022 · Miami-Dade County Daily Covid-19 Hospital Report Category 02/05/2022 02/06/2022 02/07/2022 02/08/2022 02/09/2022 02/10/2022 02/11/2022 02/12/2022 02/13/2022 02/14/2022 02/15/2022 02/16/2022 02/17/2022 02/18/2022 Beds Acute Care Beds Beds that may be converted to Acute Care Beds IC
XSEDE HPC Monthly Workshop Schedule January 21 HPC Monthly Workshop: OpenMP February 19-20 HPC Monthly Workshop: Big Data March 3 HPC Monthly Workshop: OpenACC April 7-8 HPC Monthly Workshop: Big Data May 5-6 HPC Monthly Workshop: MPI June 2-5 Summer Boot Camp August 4-5 HPC Monthly Workshop: Big Data September 1-2 HPC Monthly Workshop: MPI October 6-7 HPC Monthly Workshop: Big Data
January monthly files – March 15th February monthly files – April 15th March monthly files – May 15th April monthly files – June 15th May monthly files – July 15th June monthly files – August 15th July monthly files – September 15
average monthly income or net operating loss. Small Business Startup Eligibility Calculation Reduction in Average Monthly Income Net Operating Loss 1.2 X Average Monthly Income (Prior to March 1, 2020) Average Monthly Income (March 1, 2020 to August 31st 2020) Monthly Cash Flow ( ) Monthly Cash Flow (-) Monthly Cash Flow (-) Monthly Cash Flow ( )
Billings Clinic Cost Total Monthly Cost Billings Clinic Cost Total Monthly Semi-Monthly Monthly Monthly Semi-Monthly Monthly Monthly Cost Employee Only 99.45 198.90 419.52 618.42 128.01 256.02 415.75 671.77 Preventive Care The Billings Clinic medical plans cover in-network preventive care at 100%. This includes routine screenings and .
Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns Returns Ranked in Order of Performance (as of June 30, 2019) Equity Cap Large-9.11% Equity Cap Large-11.89% Equity Cap Large-22.10% Equity Cap Large 28.68% Equity Cap Large 10.88% Equity Cap Large 4.91% Equity Cap Large 15.79% Equity Cap Large
AAPL UW Equity APPLE 情報技術 MSFT UW Equity MICROSOFT CORP 情報技術 AMZN UW Equity AMAZON.COM 一般消費財・サービス GOOGL UW Equity ALPHABET A コミュニケーション・サービス TSLA UW Equity TESLA 一般消費財・サービス GOOG UW Equity ALPHABET C コミュニケーション・サービス
National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia Statistics Department Skopje, 31 January 2023 Press Release Significant developments in interest rates of banks and savings houses1: . 12.2021 1.2022 2.2022 3.2022 4.2022 5.2022 6.2022 7.2022 8.2022 9.2022 10.2022 11.2022 12.2022 in % on annual level
