South Sudan Mapping The Supply Chain - Lighting Africa

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SOUTH SUDAN: MAPPING THE SUPPLY CHAINFOR SOLAR LIGHTING PRODUCTSJuly 2014

South Sudan: Mapping the Supply Chain for Solar Lighting ProductsThe findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of theauthors. They do not necessarily represent the view of the Lighting Africa Program, its affiliatedorganizations, or the governments they represent.2

South Sudan: Mapping the Supply Chain for Solar Lighting ProductsCONTENTAcronyms . 61.Introduction . 71.1.Context . 71.2.Project Overview . 7Objectives. 7Methodology. 82.3.4.Country Context . 102.1Economy and Key Development Indicators . 102.2Business Climate. 11Energy Sector Overview . 123.1Household Energy Consumption Patterns . 123.2Public Electricity . 143.3Institutional and Policy Framework. 15Solar Lighting Energy Sector . 174.1Main Actors of the Solar Lighting Product Market Chain. 17Manufacturers . 19Retailers . 21Training Providers . 23Transportation Services . 23Financial Services . 254.2Products Types and Brands . 27Product Types . 27Brands . 28Pricing. 29Brand and Quality Awareness . 294.3Customer Usage and Attitudes . 30Sources of Lighting Used . 30Awareness of Solar Power . 31Willingness to Pay for Solar Products . 335.Assessment of the Solar Lighting Product Market Chain . 345.1Distribution Channels . 345.2Marketing and Promotion . 365.3Access to Finance . 375.4Logistics and Security . 373

South Sudan: Mapping the Supply Chain for Solar Lighting Products5.56.7.Legal and Regulatory Environment . 37Case Studies . 396.1Mongolia. 396.2Bangladesh . 406.3Sri Lanka . 41Recommendations. 427.1Development of Commercially Viable Distribution Models . 427.2Improvement of Solar Lighting Product Business Environment . 45References . 47Annex 1: Product matrix . 48Annex 2: Phonebook . 49LIST OF FIGURESFigure 1. Fieldwork Locations . 7Figure 2. SSP/ Exchange Rate (January 2011 – June 2013) . 9Figure 3. Official Tax Rates . 10Figure 4. Border Clearance Documents . 11Figure 5. Border Clearance Times . 11Figure 6. Lighting Sources . 12Figure 7. Public Electricity and Solar Power Usage per State . 12Figure 8. Power Infrastructure in South Sudan. 14Figure 9. Direct Normal Irradiation (kWh/ m² / day) in South Sudan . 16Figure 10. Solar Product Market Chain in Juba . 17Figure 11. Solar Product Market Chain in Wau. 18Figure 12. Market Share of Solar Lighting Product . 26Figure 13. Number of Solar Products Available under each Product Category . 26Figure 14. Pricing of different Categories of Products ( ) . 28Figure 15. Positive Feedback on Solar Powered Products from Customers . 31Figure 16. Negative Feedback on Solar Powered Products from Customers . 32Figure 17. Bottlenecks Identified in the Supply Chain . 33LIST OF TABLESTable 1. Distribution of Key Informant Interviews and Focus Group Discussions . 9Table 2: Electricity Generation in South Sudan . 14Table 3: Planned Hydropower Projects . 16Table 4. Portable Solar Lighting Products . 20Table 5. Main Solar Lighting Products Retailers in South Sudan . .21Table 6: Solar Power Training Providers in South Sudan . . 23Table 7. Transportation Time and Costs from Juba to other Destinations in South Sudan. 24Table 8. Transportation Time and Costs to Juba from Neighbouring Countries . 24Table 9. Solar Product Brands Available in South Sudan . 284

South Sudan: Mapping the Supply Chain for Solar Lighting ProductsTable 10. Indicative Lighting Energy Costs . 30Table 11. Willingness to Pay for Solar Powered Products . 33Table 12. Options to Upgrade Solar Lighting Product Distribution Models in South Sudan . 43LIST OF BOXESBox 1. Example of Non-Fully Commercial Distribution Model in South Sudan . 23Box 2. The Financial Sector in South Sudan . 25Box 3. Battery Powered Lighting Products . 30Box 4. Lessons from Other Consumer Goods Supply Chains . 35Box 5. PSI Strategy to Access Rural Markets. 36Box 6. Alternative Distribution Models used by FMCG companies . 455

South Sudan: Mapping the Supply Chain for Solar Lighting IkWhLALEDmMDTFMFIMOEDMTmthMWNFINGOPSIPVRUFISEDCUS SLEDSLPSMESSDPSSECSSMDFSSPSUMITEUUAEVATBattery Powered LightingFocus Group DiscussionFast Moving Consumer GoodsFinance (South) Sudan LimitedGross Domestic ProductGlobal Environment FacilityGovernment of South SudanHeavy Fuel OilInternational Development Association (World Bank Group)International Finance Corporation (World Bank Group)Key Informant InterviewKilo Watt per HourLighting AfricaLight Emitting DiodemillionMulti Donor Trust FundMicro Finance InstitutionMinistry of Electricity and DamsMetric TonMonthMega WattNon-Food ItemNon-Governmental OrganizationPopulation Services InternationalPhotoVoltaicRural Finance InitiativeState Electricity Distribution CompaniesUS DollarSolar and LEDSolar Lighting ProductSmall and Medium EnterpriseSouth Sudan Development PlanSouth Sudan Electricity CorporationSouth Sudan Microfinance Development FacilitySouth Sudanese Pound (3 SSP US 1)Sudan Microfinance InstitutionTwenty-Foot Equivalent (Unit)United Arab EmiratesValue-Added Tax6

South Sudan: Mapping the Supply Chain for Solar Lighting Products1. INTRODUCTION1.1.CONTEXT1Lighting Africa is a joint IFC and World Bank program that seeks to accelerate the development ofcommercial off-grid lighting markets in Sub-Saharan Africa as part of the World Bank Group’s widerefforts to improve access to energy. The Lighting Africa program is mobilizing the private sector tobuild sustainable markets that provide affordable, modern, off-grid lighting to communities acrossAfrica that are not on the electricity grid. The program and its partners had by July 2013 broughtcleaner, safer, and better lighting to close to 7.7 million (7.7m) people and are working to increaseenergy access, and to provide better lighting to 250m people by 2030.Improved lighting provides significant socio-economic, health and environmental benefits, such asnew income generation opportunities for small businesses. Lighting Africa is a key element of theGlobal Lighting and Energy Access Partnership (Global LEAP), an initiative of the Clean EnergyMinisterial2.As part of a broader scale-up strategy, the Lighting Africa program is responding to internal andexternal demand to integrate Lighting Africa program activities into World Bank-financed energyoperations. In South Sudan, this engagement includes on-going discussions with the Government ofSouth Sudan (GOSS) and preliminary background work in preparation for Technical Assistanceprojects.In support of the activities to be financed under the upcoming Technical Assistance in South Sudan,the Lighting Africa program is carrying out a number of upstream analytical studies that willcollectively inform the selection and design of market development and product developmentactivities for products that have undergone quality testing and meet Lighting Africa’s MinimumQuality Standards.The present “Mapping of the Supply Chain for Solar Lighting Products” provides the private-sectorcontext into which such activities will need to be integrated.1.2.PROJECT OVERVIEWOBJECTIVESAltai Consulting (Altai) was commissioned by the World Bank's Lighting Africa program to carry out astudy into solar power supply chains in South Sudan. The study took place between 13th May and28th June 2013. The general objective of the study was to conduct an assessment of the supply chainfor products that met LA’s Minimum Quality Standards, other solar lighting products, andcomparable consumer goods such as mobile phones in South Sudan.The specific objectives of the study are the following: undertake a bottom-up forensic mapping of the current purchasing and distribution/supplychains for products that have met Lighting Africa’s Minimum Quality Standards, other1Source: Mapping of the Supply Chain for SLPs - Terms of Reference (World Bank, 2013)Lighting Africa is implemented in partnership with: the Africa Renewable Energy and Access Grants Program;the Climate and Development Knowledge Network (CDNK); the Global Partnership on Output-Based Aid; Italy;Luxembourg; the Netherlands; Norway; the Public-Private Infrastructure Advisory Facility (PPIAF); theRenewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Partnership (REEEP); and the United States.27

South Sudan: Mapping the Supply Chain for Solar Lighting Productsportable lighting products, or comparable consumer goods (i.e. mobile telephones) in SouthSudan from retailer to manufacturer, identifying the actors involved in each phase assess the bottlenecks/pinch-points along the supply-chain that are contributing to the lackof products that have met Lighting Africa’s Minimum Quality Standards available on the localmarket, and document the main obstacles preventing large-scale commercialization of solarlanterns in South Sudan.METHODOLOGYA complete end-to-end assessment of the supply chain, both inside and outside South Sudan, wascarried out to meet these objectives through Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) with final consumers incombination with Key Informant Interviews (KIIs) with actors at each of the key points along thecomplete supply chain. FGDs and KIIs were conducted in urban and rural areas: Juba and Wau as urban fieldwork locations: Juba is the capital and primary trade hub, wherethe majority of businesses and solar power providers and located; Wau is located severalhours north of Juba and is the key trading hub / distribution point for the north-west ofSouth Sudan Two rural locations close to Juba (Kororomula) and Wau (Bringi)Interviews with actors outside of South Sudan were carried out via telephone.Figure 1: Fieldwork LocationsTo select interviewees, the research team 'followed the supply chain', to ensure that solar powerusers formed part of the sample group. Solar power retailers were used as a starting point: fromthese retailers, the supply chain was traced backwards and forwards, to identify other key actorsand consumers. Given the context of South Sudan and the small size of the market, it is believed thatthis ‘snowball’ approach enabled the research team to build a comprehensive understanding of thesupply chain.8

South Sudan: Mapping the Supply Chain for Solar Lighting Products Key Informant Interviews (KIIs):- A total of 41 KIIs were conducted: 30 with actors in the solar power product supplychain, 5 with actors in the mobile phone supply chain, and 8 in the battery poweredlighting products chain (some actors were present in more than one of these chains)- Interviews consisted of up to 55 open and closed questions- A detailed list of key informants interviewed is in Annex 2Table 1: Distribution of KIIs and FGDsJubaUrbanKIIsWauRuralUrban22FGDs1( 1 pairedinterviewwith 2 SMEowners) Total1241n/a4Rural71Regional11( 2 one-tooneinterviewswith SMEowners)Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) with lighting product consumers:- A total of six FGDs were planned but only four were eventually conducted. In eachrural location, 1 FGD was planned and carried out with users and non-users of solarpowered goods. In each of the 2 urban locations, 1 FGD was planned with individualusers and one with SME owners. However, it was not possible to hold focus groups of4-6 people with business owners, as some of them were not willing to come awayfrom their business to participate in FGDs. Instead, 2 business owners wereinterviewed via a paired interview and an additional 2 via 1-on-1 interviews. Theremaining business owners were incorporated into FGDs with individual users- Each FGD comprised 4 - 6 individuals- The FGD consisted of 26 open-ended questions9

South Sudan: Mapping the Supply Chain for Solar Lighting Products2. COUNTRY CONTEXT32.1ECONOMY AND KEY DEVELOPMENT INDICATORSThe Republic of South Sudan gained independence on 9 July 2011. It is a post-conflict state, which isembarking on the process of building its government and economy to foster growth anddevelopment. The country’s GDP is about US 19bn with a population of 10.3m. South Sudan is alarge country (647,095 km²), which possesses considerable natural resources, including oil, gas andhydropower. Most of the country’s growth comes from petroleum revenues, which account for 80%of GDP and 98% of exports. GDP has been growing at 1.9% in the past year and is highly dependenton the political situation remaining stable enough to keep pipelines open and to achieve full oilproduction. There is also a great deal of fluctuation in the value of the South Sudanese Pound (SSP)depending on the political situation and oil production, directly impacting the costs of importedgoods.Figure 2. SSP/US exchange rate (January 2011 – June 2013)43.63.43.232.82.62.4South Sudan is grouped into three regions, which are divided into 10 states. The region of Bahr elGhazal in the northwest contains four states: Northern Bahr el Ghazal, Western Bahr el Ghazal, Lakesand Warrap. The Equatoria region includes three states: Western Equatoria, Central Equatoria andEastern Equatoria. The Greater Upper Nile region lies in northern and eastern South Sudan andcomprises the three states of Jonglei, Unity and Upper Nile.It is estimated that 51% of the South Sudanese population lives below the poverty line with ruralpoverty more pronounced (55.4%) than urban poverty (24.4%) and with clear regional disparities inpoverty levels. Poverty levels range from as low as 25% of the population in the Upper Nile State to75% of the population in Northern Bahr el Ghazal State. States such as Warrap, Unity and NorthernBahr el Ghazal, which were substantially isolated by conflict and remain disconnected from therelatively prosperous areas, are the most affected by poverty. Currently, subsistence agriculture(farming and livestock) provides a living for the vast majority of the population. However, theagricultural sector is not well developed and the country still relies on imports to meet its foodrequirements. Furthermore, poor infrastructure makes transportation of agricultural and animalproducts to market very difficult.34Sources : www.africaneconomicoutlook.org and World Bank (2013)Source: UN operational rate of exchange (June 2013)10

South Sudan: Mapping the Supply Chain for Solar Lighting ProductsOnly 27% of the population aged 15 years and above is literate; 53% of the urban adult population isliterate, compared to 22% of the rural adult population; and 40% of the population between ages15-24 is literate. South Sudan has one of the worst health indicators in the world: in 2011, the infantmortality rate was 102 per thousand live births, the under-five mortality rate was 135 per thousandlive births and the maternal mortality rate was 2,054 per one hundred thousand live births; only 17%of children were fully immunised. A full 45% of the overall population has no access to improvedsources of drinking water; 67% of the urban population has access to improved sources of drinkingwater, compared to 53% of the rural population; and 80% of the population does not have access toany toilet facility. Malnutrition remains a big challenge and the single biggest contributor to childmortality, even though the prevalence of severely undernourished children (under five years)declined in the then-state of Southern Sudan from 131 per thousand children in 2006 to 122 perthousand children in 2010.2.2BUSINESS CLIMATESouth Sudan has one of the most constraining business climates in the world: in 2011, it ranked159th out of 183 economies in the World Bank’s Doing Business 2011 study. It suffers from a highdegree of socio-economic fragility, overlapping legal and regulatory instruments, weak institutionaland human capacities, dilapidated infrastructure, a weak financial sector and extremely low socialdevelopment indicators, as well as a lack of clarity among federal, state and county jurisdictions overbusiness licensing, taxes and customs. The lack of an environment propitious to business activitiesmeans that many South Sudanese are on the public sector payroll.Official taxes are high for an undeveloped economy, and can reach 49% of the value of a solarpowered good. According to the national customs department, import duties are between 3%-20%(food products are charged 3%, cigarettes and liquor are charged 20%, and solar powered goods arecharged 10%). General sales tax is set at 15% for all goods, products and services. Similarly, businessprofit tax is fixed at 4%. State unloading taxes, however, vary between 10%-20% of the value of agood. It is at the discretion of the state to set the tax rate within this range. Unloading taxes are onlylevied in the final destination state, not in the states the goods pass through en route.Figure 3: Official Tax Rates3100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%Value of GoodState Unloading Taxes- Higher Tier10%10%4%15%100%Business Profit Tax10%TaxState Unloading Taxes- Lower TierVATValue of GoodAccording to information provided by the central government Customs Department, governmentregulations for border clearing are relatively uncomplicated. Whether entering South Sudan by land,3Sources: KIIs with Central Government Customs Department11

South Sudan: Mapping the Supply Chain for Solar Lighting Productsair, or water, a maximum of three documents are needed to cross the border. Government officials,transporters, and retailers reported that goods clear all borders within a few days. Goods arrivingfrom Kenya were reported to clear in 2 days (official clearing time is 1-2 days), whilst goodsimported from Uganda could take up to 2-4 days (official clearing time is 1-3 days). Clearing times bywater transportation were reported to take a maximum of 3 days (official clearing times are 1-2days).Figure 4: Required Border Clearance oLetter of authorizationManifestoAirway BillForm 15Bond documentFigure 5: Official Border Clearance TimesBy airBy waterBy landSudan1 - 2 days1 - 2 days2 - 3 daysUganda1 - 2 days1 - 2 days1 - 3 daysKenya1 - 2 days1 day1 - 2 daysEthiopia1 - 2 daysNo goods entering1 dayCARNo goods enteringNo goods enteringNo goods enteringDRCNo goods enteringNo goods enteringNo goods entering3. ENERGY SECTOR OVERVIEW3.1HOUSEHOLD ENERGY CONSUMPTION PATTERNSMost of the energy consumed at the household level in South Sudan is used for basic needs such ascooking and lighting. According to the National Baseline Household Survey, 96% of the populationused firewood or charcoal as the primary fuel for cooking (which typically constitutes 90% of theenergy used in a rural household)4. For lighting, over 50% of the population used firewood as theprimary source, 20% depended on kerosene, etc. and 2% use generators5. Of the remainingpopulation, 27% have no access to a lighting source, and only about 1.2% of the population haveaccess to grid electricity (7.1% of urban dwellers and 0.2% rural dwellers). A small proportion of thepopulation, 0.9%, are solar power users (2.5% of urban dwellers and 0.5% of rural dwellers).45Source : National Bureau of Statistics (2009)Source : Statistical Yearbook for Southern Sudan (2010)12

South Sudan: Mapping the Supply Chain for Solar Lighting ProductsFigure 6: Lighting Sources Used (% of alFigure 7: Public Electricity and Solar Power Usage per State (% of population9 )10%9%8%7%6%5%4%3%2%1%0%Central Eastern JongleiEquitorial EquitorialLakes Northern UnityBahr ElGhazalPublic ElectricityUpperNileWarrap Western WesternBahr El EquitorialGhazalSolar PowerThe population with no access to electricity also pay a high premium for alternative sources oflighting (kerosene, candles, low quality dry-cell based light emitting diode (LED) lanterns) due tofrequent, small volume purchases and poor distribution networks that add a huge overhead to theprice. They also rely on inefficient tools for combustion that do not produce the best lightingpossible. In some Sub-Saharan Africa surveys, the cost of lighting has been estimated to be betweenabout US 50 - US 80 per household per year, broadly in line with data collected by the NationalBureau of Statistics in South Sudan, which estimates total expenses on utilities (including energy,water, waste management, etc.) as US 80 - US 100 per household per year.69Source: GOSS Census (2010)GOSS Census (2010)13

South Sudan: Mapping the Supply Chain for Solar Lighting Products3.2PUBLIC ELECTRICITYSouth Sudan not only has low access and low consumption rates (about 10 kWh per capita per yearagainst an average 80 kWh in Sub-Saharan countries), but those who are connected to the grid haveto pay a high cost for the service: a household connection costs US 500-600 and the average tariff isUS 0.25/kWh). This is twice as much as the average African consumer pays, five times what is paidin other developing countries, and more than double what is paid in Sudan. The electricity supplygenerally services wealthier residential customers and some commercial centres in the cities,whereas most businesses (93%) rely on generator power for their electricity needs. Overall, 87% offirms identify the lack of electricity as a major impediment for their business10. The high costs are amajor hindrance to the growth of industrialization in South Sudan.Access to electricity is currently concentrated in a few areas of the country (mostly in Juba with therest in Malakal, Wau, and Renk7). Total installed capacity for the country is 30 MW, of which, only 22MW is currently operational, consisting exclusively of thermal generators (diesel and heavy fuel oil,HFO).Table 2: Electricity Generation in South SudanLocationTotal capacity (MW)StatusJuba erational10Source: Doing Business in Juba (World Bank, 2011) and World Bank’s Investment Climate AssessmentThere is an existing 40 MW interconnection with Sudan to the town of Renk but the consumption from theline is limited to local demand (only an estimated 1.5% of supply is used).714

South Sudan: Mapping the Supply Chain for Solar Lighting ProductsFigure 8: Power Infrastructure in South Sudan3.3INSTITUTIONAL AND POLICY FRAMEWORKThe key institutions in the electricity sector are: The Ministry of Electricity and Dams (MOED) which is responsible for overall sector policyand strategy and is also involved in major projects in transmission and other largehydropower and regional integration projects. The South Sudan Electricity Corporation (SSEC), which is deemed an autonomous nationalutility acting as a public sector undertaking. However, at the moment it functions as a unit ofthe MOED. It

South Sudan: Mapping the Supply Chain for Solar Lighting Products 10 2. COUNTRY CONTEXT3 2.1 ECONOMY AND KEY DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS The Republic of South Sudan gained independence on 9 July 2011. It is a post-conflict state, which is embarking on the process of building its government and economy to foster growth and -) 3

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