CHMA: Eugene-Springfield, Oregon - HUD User
C O M P R E H E N S I V E H O U S I N G M A R K E T A N A L Y S I S Eugene-Springfield, Oregon U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development Office of Policy Development and Research As of July 1, 2013 Summary Economy Lincoln Marion Benton Linn Des Lane tes Polk chu Pacific Oce an Housing Market Area Coos Douglas Klamath The Eugene-Springfield Housing Market Area (HMA) consists of Lane County in west-central Oregon. Lane County lies in the Willamette Valley and extends west to the Pacific Ocean. The principal cities of Eugene and Springfield comprise more than 75 percent of the population and economic base of the HMA. The cities of Eugene and Springfield are regional centers for employment, healthcare serv ices, housing, and education, which includes the University of Oregon and Lane Community College. Market Details Economic Conditions. 2 Population and Households. 4 Housing Market Trends. 6 Data Profile. 9 Economic conditions have improved in the Eugene-Springfield HMA since mid-2012. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 700 jobs, or 0.5 percent, to 141,700 jobs, during the 12 months ending June 2013 compared with no change during the previous 12 months. During the same period, the u nemployment rate declined from 9.1 to 8.3 percent, mainly because the labor force con tracted by 3,625 people, or 2.0 percent. Nonfarm payrolls are expected to in crease by an average of 0.6 percent a year during the 3-year forecast period. Table DP-1 at the end of this report provides additional employment data. Rental Market Rental housing market conditions are currently tight, with an estimated 4-percent vacancy rate. Nearly 19,700 students at the University of Oregon reside off campus in privately owned rental housing, providing a stable source of renter demand. During the forecast period, demand is expected for 1,050 new rental units; the 360 rental units currently under construction will meet a portion of that demand (Table 1). Table 1. Housing Demand in the Eugene-Springfield HMA, 3-Year Forecast, July 1, 2013, to July 1, 2014 Sales Market The sales housing market in the HMA is currently soft but improving, with an estimated 2-percent vacancy rate. During the 12 months ending June 2013, existing home sales increased 21 percent to 4,075 homes sold, and the average sales price increased 4 per cent to 210,400. During the forecast period, demand is expected for 900 new homes (Table 1). The 130 homes currently under construction will likely satisfy a portion of that demand. In addition, a portion of the 5,325 other vacant units in the HMA may come back on the market and satisfy some of the demand. Eugene-Springfield HMA Sales Units Rental Units Total demand 900 1,050 Under construction 130 360 Notes: Total demand represents estimated production necessary to achieve a balanced market at the end of the forecast period. Units under construction as of July 1, 2013. A portion of the estimated 5,325 other vacant units in the HMA will likely satisfy some of the forecast demand. Source: Estimates by analyst
Economic Conditions 2 lthough economic conditions began improving in mid-2012, the current level of nonfarm payrolls in the Eugene-Springfield HMA re mains 10 percent below the peak level of 157,000 jobs recorded in 2008. Dur ing the 12 months ending June 2013, nonfarm payrolls increased by 700 jobs, or 0.5 percent, to 141,700 jobs, compared with no change during the previous 12 months. Table 2 shows the change in nonfarm payrolls by sector. During the 12 months ending June 2013, the unemployment rate in the HMA declined from 9.1 to 8.3 percent, mainly because the labor force contracted by 3,625 people, or Table 2. 12-Month Average Nonfarm Payroll Jobs in the EugeneSpringfield HMA, by Sector Total nonfarm payroll jobs Goods-producing sectors Mining, logging, & construction Manufacturing Service-providing sectors Wholesale & retail trade Transportation & utilities Information Financial activities Professional & business services Education & health services Leisure & hospitality Other services Government 12 Months Ending June 2012 12 Months Ending June 2013 141,000 18,100 5,900 12,200 122,900 23,800 3,000 3,200 7,100 14,700 22,500 14,400 4,800 29,400 141,700 18,300 6,000 12,200 123,500 24,100 3,100 3,300 7,200 14,900 22,700 14,400 4,800 29,000 Absolute Percent Change Change 700 200 100 0 600 300 100 100 100 200 200 0 0 – 400 0.5 1.1 1.7 0.0 0.5 1.3 3.3 3.1 1.4 1.4 0.9 0.0 0.0 – 1.4 Notes: Based on 12-month averages through June 2012 and June 2013. Numbers may not add to totals because of rounding. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 200,000 14.0 190,000 12.0 10.0 180,000 8.0 170,000 6.0 160,000 4.0 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 2 1 20 1 0 20 1 9 20 1 8 Resident employment 20 0 7 20 0 6 20 0 05 20 0 20 3 04 20 20 0 20 20 20 Labor force 02 0.0 01 2.0 140,000 00 150,000 Unemployment rate Unemployment rate Figure 1. Trends in Labor Force, Resident Employment, and Unemployment Rate in the Eugene-Springfield HMA, 2000 Through 2012 Labor force and resident employment E u g e n e - S p r i n g f i e l d , O R C O M P R E H E N S I V E H O U S I N G M A R K E T A N A LY S I S A 2 percent. By comparison, from 2000 through 2008 the unemployment rate averaged 6.5 percent because of strong job growth. Figure 1 shows the trends in labor force, resident employment, and the unemployment rate in the HMA from 2000 through 2012. The wholesale and retail trade sec tor, which accounts for 17.0 percent of total nonfarm payrolls in the HMA (Figure 2), began adding jobs in 2011, after losing a total of 2,600 jobs from 2007 through 2010. The rate of job growth accelerated during the 12 months ending June 2013, as the sec tor added 300 jobs, or 1.3 percent; including 200 jobs, or 1.3 percent, in the retail trade subsector, and 100 jobs, or 1.7 percent, in the wholesale trade subsector. Modest growth in the retail trade subsector is expected to continue during the forecast period. Firms in the sector that are expected to expand or open new operations include a Wal-Mart Neighborhood Market that will open in Springfield and hire 65 people in the near future and a Nordstrom Rack that will open in the Oakway Center in Eugene in the fall of 2013. The education and health services sector is the only nonfarm payroll sector that avoided job losses during the most recent economic downturn, adding an average of 400 jobs annu ally from 2000 through 2012. The sector has also been the fastest growing sector since 2000, with the number of jobs increasing by 27 percent (Figure 3). The education and health services sector reported a gain of 200 jobs, or 0.9 percent, during the 12 months ending June 2013, despite the elim ination of more than 200 jobs since June 2011 at PeaceHealth Oregon, the HMA’s largest private employer
Economic Conditions Continued 3 Figure 2. Current Nonfarm Payroll Jobs in the Eugene-Springfield HMA, by Sector Mining, logging, & construction 4.3% Government 20.4% Manufacturing 8.6% Wholesale & retail trade 17.0% E u g e n e - S p r i n g f i e l d , O R C O M P R E H E N S I V E H O U S I N G M A R K E T A N A LY S I S Other services 3.4% Leisure & hospitality 10.2% Transportation & utilities 2.2% Information 2.3% Financial activities 5.1% Education & health services 16.0% Professional & business services 10.5% Note: Based on 12-month averages through June 2013. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Figure 3. Sector Growth in the Eugene-Springfield HMA, Percentage Change, 2000 to Current Total nonfarm payroll jobs Goods-producing sectors Mining, logging, & construction Manufacturing Service-providing sectors Wholesale & retail trade Transportation & utilities Information Financial activities Professional & business services Education & health services Leisure & hospitality Other services Government – 50 – 40 – 30 – 20 – 10 0 10 20 30 Note: Current is based on 12-month averages through June 2013. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Table 3. Major Employers in the Eugene-Springfield HMA Name of Employer Univeristy of Oregon PeaceHealth Oregon Lane County Government City of Eugene Lane Community College Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. Symantec Corporation Safeway, Inc. Nonfarm Payroll Sector Number of Employees Government Education & health services Government Government Government Wholesale & retail trade Information Wholesale & retail trade 10,400 4,900 2,800 1,800 1,125 1,100 900 760 Note: Excludes local school districts. Source: Eugene Chamber of Commerce, July 2011 (Table 3). Growth in this sector is expected to continue during the fore cast period as the population continues to grow and age, increasing the demand for healthcare services. The U.S. De partment of Veterans Affairs will open a new clinic in downtown Eugene in February 2015, which is expected to result in 235 full-time jobs and receive as many as 93,000 outpatient visits a year. The HMA depends heavily on govern ment employment. The city of Eugene serves as the seat of Lane County and
E u g e n e - S p r i n g f i e l d , O R C O M P R E H E N S I V E H O U S I N G M A R K E T A N A LY S I S 4 Economic Conditions Continued is home to the University of Oregon (UO) and Lane Community College (LCC). The government sector is cur rently the largest in the HMA, account ing for 29,000 jobs, or 20.4 percent of total nonfarm payrolls, up from 18.6 percent in 2000. The government sec tor continued to lose jobs during the 12 months ending June 2013, declining by 400 jobs, or 1.4 percent, a trend that began in 2010. The state govern ment subsector gained 200 jobs because of hiring at UO, but the increase was more than offset by the loss of 600 jobs in the local government subsector. UO is the largest employer in the HMA, with 10,400 full- and part-time employ ees and a student enrollment that totaled 24,600 in the fall of 2012. The university supports nearly 1,600 vendors in Lane County at an estimated annual cost of 73.3 million. The state wide economic impact of the univer sity was estimated at 2.12 billion in fiscal year (FY) 2010–11 (study by Tim Duy, professor at UO). In addi tion, fall 2011 enrollment at LCC was 12,850 (the latest data available) and payrolls totaled 70 million. In March 2013, LCC opened a 55 million Down town Campus project with more than 90,000 square feet of new academic space and with 75 units, or 255 bedrooms, of student housing. The most recent economic and revenue forecast from the state of Oregon anticipates ongoing budget cuts at both state and local government levels because of revenue losses as a result of slow eco nomic growth throughout the state. Despite being a state-funded institution, a study conducted by UO estimates that state appropriations for FY 2013 will account for less than 6 percent of the university’s revenue, which will help insulate the university from state government revenue shortfalls. A modest improvement in economic conditions is expected in the HMA during the next 3 years. UO will continue to be the main economic driver, and job growth is anticipated in the education and health services and the trade sectors. During the 3-year forecast period, nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by an average of 800 jobs, or 0.6 percent, annually. Population and Households A s of July 1, 2013, the population of the Eugene-Springfield HMA was estimated at 355,600, reflecting an average annual increase of 1,200, or 0.3 percent, since 2010; approximately 71 percent of the in crease is attributed to net in-migration (Figures 4 and 5). Population growth fluctuated during the previous decade and was strongly correlated with labor market conditions. Growth was strong est from 2004 to 2008, increasing by an average of 3,700 people, or 1.1 per cent, annually. During this time, net in-migration accounted for 84 percent of the population growth, largely a result of increased employment oppor tunities in the HMA. As the economy started slowing in the latter part of 2008, employment conditions began to worsen in the HMA, causing net inmigration to drop significantly. From 2009 to 2012, population growth slowed to an average of 1,225 people, or
5 Population and Households Continued 0.3 percent, annually, with net inmigration accounting for 63 percent of the total. Population growth is expected to remain stable during the 3-year forecast period, resulting in an Average annual change 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 2000 to 2010 2010 to current Population Current to forecast Households Sources: 2000 and 2010—2000 Census and 2010 Census; current and forecast— estimates by analyst Figure 5. Components of Population Change in the EugeneSpringfield HMA, 2000 to Forecast Average annual change E u g e n e - S p r i n g f i e l d , O R C O M P R E H E N S I V E H O U S I N G M A R K E T A N A LY S I S Figure 4. Population and Household Growth in the EugeneSpringfield HMA, 2000 to Forecast average annual growth rate of 0.3 percent, or 970 people, reaching 358,500 people by July 1, 2016. Net in-migration is expected to slow further during the forecast period, accounting for 59 percent of population growth, because most of the job growth is expected to be absorbed by the current high level of unemployed residents in the HMA. 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 2000 to 2010 2010 to current Net natural change Current to forecast Net migration Sources: 2000 and 2010—2000 Census and 2010 Census; current and forecast— estimates by analyst Figure 6. Number of Households by Tenure in the EugeneSpringfield HMA, 2000 to Current 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 2000 Current 2010 Renter Owner Sources: 2000 and 2010—2000 Census and 2010 Census; current—estimates by analyst As a result of sluggish population growth during the past 3 years, the average annual rate of household growth in the HMA has been slower since 2010 than during the 2000s. Since 2010, the number of households in the HMA has increased by an average of 690, or 0.5 percent a year, compared with an average an nual increase of 1,550, or 1.1 percent, from 2000 to 2010. An estimated 148,200 households currently reside in the HMA. The homeownership rate declined from 62.3 percent in 2000 to 59.8 percent in 2010 and declined further to 58.2 percent cur rently, because the unstable economy caused a shift in housing preferences toward renting. The number of renter households increased from 49,246 in 2000 to an estimated 61,950 as of July 2013, representing an average annual increase of 1.8 percent. Renter house holds accounted for nearly three-fourths of the household growth during that period. During the next 3 years, the number of households is forecast to increase by an average of 600, or 0.4 percent, annually, reaching 150,000 by July 1, 2016. Figure 6 illustrates the number of households by tenure in the HMA for 2000, 2010, and the current date.
6 Housing Market Trends E u g e n e - S p r i n g f i e l d , O R C O M P R E H E N S I V E H O U S I N G M A R K E T A N A LY S I S Sales Market The home sales market in the EugeneSpringfield HMA is currently soft but improving, with an estimated vacancy rate of 2 percent. During the 12 months ending June 2013, the number of exist ing home sales increased 21 percent to 4,075 homes sold, which is the highest number of existing home sales record ed since 2008 (Metrostudy, A Hanley Wood Company). A reduction in avail able sales housing inventory combined with increased demand is putting up ward pressure on prices; during the 12 months ending June 2013, the average existing home sales price increased 4 percent to 210,400. The current increase in sales price also marks the first 12-month period of price apprecia tion since 2008. By comparison, during the same period in 2012, the number of existing home sales increased 10 percent to 3,375 homes sold, but the average sales price decreased 4 per cent to 201,900. Distressed properties continue to com prise a significant share of the existing sales inventory; however, the number of such properties decreased during the past year. In June 2013, 1,950 home loans, or 4.8 percent of all home loans in the HMA, were 90 or more days delinquent, were in foreclosure, or transitioned into REO (Real Estate Owned) status compared with 2,475 loans, or 5.2 percent, in June 2012 (LPS Applied Analytics). By comparison, only 700 home loans, or 1.4 percent, were in distress in June 2008. During the 12 months ending June 2013, 440 REO sales accounted for 11 percent of the total number of existing homes sales, down from 680 REO sales dur ing the previous 12 months. The average sales price of an REO increased 8 percent to 150,000, which is 31 per cent less than the average sales price of a regular resale home. The volume of new home sales re mains well below the peak years of 2006 through 2008, when an average of 750 new homes sold annually. During the 12 months ending June 2013, 210 new homes sold in the HMA, a small increase compared with the 190 new homes sold during the previous 12 months. This small increase is still an improvement, however, compared with an average annual decline of 26 percent in 2011 and 2012. Despite a declining number of new home sales, the average sales price of a new home began increasing toward the end of 2011, and, during the 12 months end ing June 2013, the average sales price of a new home increased 5 percent from 237,800 to 250,700. By com parison, from 2006 through 2008, the sales price of a new home averaged 287,800, nearly 15 percent higher than the current average sales price. Single-family home construction in the HMA, as measured by the number of single-family homes permitted, re mains well below the average of 1,300 homes permitted annually from 2001 through 2007. The recent improvement in the existing home sales market has caused homebuilders to increase con struction activity, however. During the 12 months ending June 2013, 490 single-family homes were permitted, an increase of 32 percent compared with 360 homes permitted during the previous 12 months (preliminary data). By comparison, the number of homes permitted from 2009 through 2012 averaged 410 homes annually.
Sales Market Continued period. A portion of this demand will be met by the 130 homes currently under construction. In addition, some of the estimated 5,325 other vacant units in the HMA may become avail able and satisfy a part of the demand. Demand is expected to be strongest for homes priced between 150,000 and 199,999 (Table 4). Based on projected population and household growth during the next 3 years, demand is expected for 900 new single-family homes in the HMA (Table 1), with demand increasing slightly in each year of the forecast Figure 7. Single-Family Homes Permitted in the Eugene-Springfield HMA, 2000 to Current 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 13 20 12 10 11 20 20 20 09 20 08 07 20 06 20 05 20 04 03 20 20 02 20 01 20 00 0 20 E u g e n e - S p r i n g f i e l d , O R C O M P R E H E N S I V E H O U S I N G M A R K E T A N A LY S I S Figure 7 illustrates the number of single-family homes permitted in the HMA from 2000 to the current date. 20 7 Housing Market Trends Notes: Includes townhomes. Includes data through June 2013. Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey; estimates by analyst Table 4. Estimated Demand for New Market-Rate Sales Housing in the Eugene-Springfield HMA, July 1, 2013, to July 1, 2016 Price Range ( ) From To Units of Demand Percent of Total 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 149,999 199,999 249,999 299,999 349,999 399,999 and higher 65 280 200 140 90 90 45 7.0 31.0 22.0 15.0 10.0 10.0 5.0 Notes: Numbers may not add to totals because of rounding. The 130 homes currently under construction and a portion of the estimated 5,325 other vacant units in the submarket will likely satisfy some of the forecast demand. Source: Estimates by analyst Rental Market Overall rental housing market condi tions in the Eugene-Springfield HMA have been persistently tight since 2007, largely a result of the estimated 19,700 UO students who live off campus in privately owned housing and who com prise nearly 13.0 percent of renter households in the HMA. In addition, stricter mortgage lending standards have encouraged renting over buying. The current overall rental vacancy rate is estimated at 4.0 percent, down from 5.0 percent in April 2010 (Figure 8). The apartment market is tighter than the
Rental Market Continued overall rental market, with a vacancy rate of 2.3 percent during the second quarter of 2013, down from 3.2 percent in 2012 and 4.4 percent in 2011 (Reis, Inc.). During the second quarter of 2013, the market was tightest for apart ments built before 1979 and between 1990 and 1999, with vacancy rates of 2.4 and 1.9 percent, respectively. Units built between 2000 and 2009 recorded the highest vacancy rate, at 4.1 percent. The average asking rent in the HMA increased 2.0 percent to 749 during the second quarter of 2013 compared with rents a year ago, and rents aver aged 599 for a studio, 665 for a onebedroom unit, 768 for a two-bedroom unit, and 1,020 for a three-bedroom unit. Since 2011, multifamily developers have responded to the tightening rental housing market by increasing apartment construction, as measured Figure 8. Rental Vacancy Rates in the Eugene-Springfield HMA, 2000 to Current 8.0 6.3 6.0 5.0 4.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 2000 2010 Current Sources: 2000 and 2010—2000 Census and 2010 Census; current—estimates by analyst Figure 9. Multifamily Units Permitted in the Eugene-Springfield HMA, 2000 to 2013 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 3 2 Notes: Excludes townhomes. Includes data through June 2013. Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey; estimates by analyst 20 1 20 1 0 11 20 20 1 20 09 08 07 20 06 20 20 05 20 03 02 04 20 20 20 01 20 0 0 20 0 E u g e n e - S p r i n g f i e l d , O R C O M P R E H E N S I V E H O U S I N G M A R K E T A N A LY S I S 8 Housing Market Trends by the number of units permitted (Figure 9). During the 12 months ending June 2013, 460 multifamily units were permitted, a 24-percent increase compared with the 370 multifamily units permitted during the same period in 2012 (preliminary data). By contrast, multifamily construction peaked from 2004 through 2007 when an average of 540 units were permitted annually. Approximately 360 units are currently under construction, most of which are small projects concentrated around the university. 1801 University Apartments, a 20-unit complex next to the UO campus, is expected to open in August 2013, with rents for threebedroom units at 2,025 a month and for four-bedroom units at 2,600 to 2,700 a month. Most of the multifamily construction in the past several years has been con centrated near the UO campus, in structures with fewer than 40 units, and targeted at students. A few of these projects that opened in 2011 include The Anthony, Westgate Apartments, and The Pearl Apartments. Rents at these newer properties range from 795 to 895 for studios, 1,350 to 1950 for two-bedroom units, 1,995 to 2,500 for three-bedroom units, and 2,500 to 2,700 for four-bedroom units. In addition, UO opened a 450bed dormitory in the fall of 2012. Yearly rents are per bedroom, include a standard meal plan, and differ de pending on the unit mix: 11,450 to 17,925 for singles, 10,400 to 15,100 for doubles, and 9,900 to 12,225 for triples. Titan Court, a new apartment community for LCC students, includes 15 studio units renting for 850, 5 twobedroom units renting for 500 per room, and 55 four-bedroom apartments renting for between 580 and 599 per bedroom.
9 Housing Market Trends Rental Market Continued E u g e n e - S p r i n g f i e l d , O R C O M P R E H E N S I V E H O U S I N G M A R K E T A N A LY S I S Demand is estimated for 1,050 new rental units during the 3-year forecast period, a portion of which will be met by the 360 units currently under con struction (Table 1). After accounting for pipeline completions, an additional 270 units will be needed in the second year of the forecast period, followed by 420 units in the third year. Demand is expected to be strongest for one- and two-bedroom units. Table 5 shows the estimated demand for new market-rate rental housing in the HMA, categorized by rent level and number of bedrooms. Table 5. Estimated Demand for New Market-Rate Rental Housing in the Eugene-Springfield HMA, July 1, 2013, to July 1, 2016 Zero Bedrooms One Bedroom Two Bedrooms Three or More Bedrooms Monthly Gross Units of Rent ( ) Demand Monthly Gross Units of Rent ( ) Demand Monthly Gross Units of Rent ( ) Demand Monthly Gross Units of Rent ( ) Demand 700 or more 30 800 to 999 1,000 to 1,199 1,200 or more 330 20 20 1,800 to 1,999 2,000 to 2,199 2,200 or more 190 10 10 Total 30 Total 370 1,200 to 1,399 1,400 to 1,599 1,600 to 1,799 1,800 or more Total Total 210 370 30 25 10 440 Notes: Numbers may not add to totals because of rounding. The 360 units currently under construction will satisfy some of the estimated demand. Source: Estimates by analyst Data Profile Table DP-1. Eugene-Springfield HMA Data Profile, 2000 to Current Average Annual Change (%) 2000 2010 Current 2000 to 2010 160,530 161,719 160,400 0.1 – 0.3 5.4% 11.0% 8.3% Nonfarm payroll jobs 145,100 140,900 141,700 – 0.3 0.2 Total population 322,959 351,715 355,600 0.9 0.3 Total households 130,453 145,966 148,200 1.1 0.5 81,207 87,228 86,250 0.7 – 0.3 1.8 1.7 1.2 0.4 3.3 1.0 Total resident employment Unemployment rate Owner households Percent owner 62.3% 59.8% 58.2% Renter households 49,246 58,738 61,950 Percent renter 37.7% 40.2% 41.8% 138,946 156,112 157,900 1.8% 2.0% 2.0% Total housing units Owner vacancy rate Rental vacancy rate Median Family Income 6.3% 5.0% 4.0% 41,200 57,200 58,400 2010 to Current Notes: Numbers may not add to totals because of rounding. Employment data represent annual averages for 2000, 2010, and the 12 months through June 2013. Median Family Incomes are for 1999, 2009, and 2011. Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development; estimates by analyst
10 Data Definitions and Sources Contact Information 2000: 4/1/2000—U.S. Decennial Census Holi Weaver, Economist 2010: 4/1/2010—U.S. Decennial Census Seattle HUD Regional Office Current date: 7/1/2013—Analyst’s estimates 206–220–5291 Forecast period: 7/1/2013–7/1/2016—Analyst’s holi.m.woods-weaver@hud.gov E u g e n e - S p r i n g f i e l d , O R C O M P R E H E N S I V E H O U S I N G M A R K E T A N A LY S I S estimates This analysis has been prepared for the assistance and Demand: The demand estimates in the analysis guidance of HUD in its operations. The factual informa- are not a forecast of building activity. They are tion, findings, and conclusions may also be useful to the estimates of the total housing production builders, mortgagees, and others concerned with local needed to achieve a balanced market at the end housing market conditions and trends. The analysis of the 3-year forecast period given conditions on does not purport to make determinations regarding the the as-of date of the analysis, growth, losses, and acceptability of any mortgage insurance proposals that excess vacancies. The estimates do not account may be under consideration by the Department. for units currently under construction or units in the development pipeline. The factual framework for this analysis follows the guidelines and methods developed by HUD’s Economic Other Vacant Units: In the U.S. Department of and Market Analysis Division. The analysis and findings Housing and Urban Development’s (HUD’s) are as thorough and current as possible based on informa - analysis, other vacant units include all vacant tion available on the as-of date from local and national units that are not available for sale or for rent. sources. As such, findings or conclusions may be modi- The term therefore includes units rented or sold fied by subsequent developments. HUD expresses its but not occupied; held for seasonal, recreational, appreciation to those industry sources and state and local or occasional use; used by migrant workers; and government officials who provided data and information the category specified as “other” vacant by the on local economic and housing market conditions. Census Bureau. Building Permits: Building permits do not neces sarily reflect all residential building activity that occurs in an HMA. Some units are constructed or created without a building permit or are issued a different type of building permit. For example, some units classified as commercial structures are not reflected in the residential building permits. As a result, the analyst, through diligent fieldwork, makes an estimate of this additional construction activity. Some of these estimates are included in the discussions of single-family and multifamily building permits. For additional data pertaining to the housing market for this HMA, go to www.huduser. org/publications/pdf/CMARtables EugeneSpringfieldOR 13.pdf. For additional reports on other market areas, please go to www.huduser.org/publications/econdev/mkt analysis.html.
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