Resource Plan Appendix F: Strategist Modeling Assumptions
Appendix F: Strategist Modeling AssumptionsPUBLIC DOCUMENT –NOT PUBLIC DATAHAS BEEN EXCISEDAppendix F: Strategist Modeling AssumptionsPUBLIC DOCUMENT –NOT PUBLIC DATAHAS BEEN EXCISEDTable of Contents1Sensitivities Evaluated . 22Wind Energy Assumptions . 23Solar Energy Assumptions. 34Natural Gas Fuel Price Assumptions . 45Coal Price Assumptions . 46Load Growth Assumptions . 67Energy Efficiency Assumed in Forecast . 68Market Energy Price Assumptions . 79Externality Price Assumptions. 810New Thermal Alternative Assumptions. 911Existing Unit Input Assumptions . 912Other Assumptions . 10List of FiguresFigure 1: Sensitivities Evaluated. 2Figure 2: Wind Energy Assumptions . 3Figure 3: Solar Energy Assumptions . 4Figure 4: Natural Gas Fuel Price Assumptions . 4Figure 5: Big Stone Plant Coal Price Assumptions . 5Figure 6: Coyote Station Coal Price Assumptions . 5Figure 7: Hoot Lake Plant Coal Price Assumptions . 5Figure 8: Load Growth Assumptions . 6Figure 9: DSM Assumptions . 7Figure 10: Built-In DSM/EE . 7Figure 11: Market Energy Price Assumptions . 8Figure 12: Externality Price ( /ton) . 8Figure 13: New Thermal Alternatives . 9Figure 14: Existing Baseload Unit Assumptions . 9Figure 15: Existing Peaking Unit Assumptions . 10Figure 16: Existing Wind Energy Transaction Assumptions . 10Figure 17: Existing Otter Tail-Owned Wind Assumptions. 10
Appendix F: Strategist Modeling Assumptions 2PUBLIC DOCUMENT – NOT PUBLIC DATA HAS BEEN EXCISED1 Sensitivities EvaluatedFigure 1 shows a grid of sensitivities evaluated in this resource plan. Otter Tail evaluated 58 sensitivities.Thirty-one sensitivities have externality values applied over the study period. Twenty-seven sensitivitiesdo not have the externality values applied.Zero ExternalitiesExternality values appliedFigure 1: Sensitivities Evaluated0 Base1 OTP Preferred Plan2 Wind - 5/MWh3 Wind 5/MWh4 (CEO) Solar Declining price5 Solar - 10/MWh6 Solar 10/MWh7 -50% NaturalGas price8 -25% NaturalGas price9 25% NaturalGas price10 50% NaturalGas price11 100% NaturalGas price12 Low Coal price13 High Coal price14 Low LoadGrowth15 High LoadGrowth16 Low Energy Market Price17 High Energy Market Price18 Limit Market Energy Purchases19 Low Externality20 High Externality21 (CEO) 59/ton CO222 MN CO2 reduction Goal23 BAU MN Energy Efficiency24 1.6% MN Energy Efficiency25 1.7% MN Energy Efficiency26 1.8% MN Energy Efficiency27 1.9% MN Energy Efficiency28 2.0% MN Energy Efficiency29 (CEO) 1.0% ND Energy Efficiency30 Retire Peakers2 Wind Energy AssumptionsFigure 2 shows the wind energy assumptions used in the 2016 resource plan. Otter Tail evaluated windenergy resource alternatives as purchased power agreements (PPA) with a 20 year term and fixed pricingover that term. Wind integration costs are included in the fixed price assumptions.In December 2015 legislation was enacted that extended the availability of production tax credits (PTC)associated with wind energy through 2019. The legislation also included a phase-out of the tax incentive.
Appendix F: Strategist Modeling Assumptions 3PUBLIC DOCUMENT – NOT PUBLIC DATA HAS BEEN EXCISEDThe wind energy price assumptions incorporate the phasing out of the PTCs from 100 percent for projectsthat have started construction in 2016, to 40 percent for projects that have started construction in 2019.For projects that start construction after 2019, there are no PTCs assumed.Wind project sizes are assumed to be 100 MW in size with a 40 percent net capacity factor and anaccredited capacity of 15.6 percent (15.6 MW). Wind projects are made available for selection in theyears 2018, 2020, 2022, 2023, 2025 and 2027. The low and high wind price sensitivities are #2 and #3respectively.Figure 2: Wind Energy AssumptionsStrategist 202020W232023W262026COD byend of2020202120222023202420272030First FullYear 60%40%0%0%0%FixedFixedFixedPricePricePrice( /MWh) ( /MWh) ( /MWh)HighBaseLow 25.00 30.00 35.00 29.00 34.00 39.00 34.00 39.00 44.00 39.00 44.00 49.00 48.00 53.00 58.00 51.24 56.24 61.24 54.69 59.69 100100100100100100100AccreditedCapacity(15.6% of Year that oneNameplate) Superflousunit available(MW)15.602018, 3 Solar Energy AssumptionsFigure 3 shows the solar energy assumptions used in the 2016 resource plan. Otter Tail evaluated solarenergy resource alternatives as purchased power agreements (PPA) with a 20 year term and fixed pricingover that term. Solar integration costs are included in the fixed price assumptions.Similar to wind, the December 2015 legislation that was enacted extended the availability of investmenttax credits (ITC). Solar projects that start construction by 2019 are eligible for the 30 percent ITC. Thelegislation includes a step-down provision of the ITC to the 10 percent level for projects that startconstruction after 2021.Solar project sizes are assumed to be 30 MW in size with 15 percent net capacity factor and an accreditedcapacity of 50 percent (15 MW). Solar projects are made available for selection in the years 2020, 20222025, and 2028. Sensitivity #4 contains a declining price until the year 2020. The low and high solarprice sensitivities are #5 and #6 respectively.
Appendix F: Strategist Modeling Assumptions 4PUBLIC DOCUMENT – NOT PUBLIC DATA HAS BEEN EXCISEDFigure 3: Solar Energy AssumptionsStrategist Construction COD by First Full YearNameStartend of of %10%10%Price( /MWh)Declining 80.00 70.00 62.00 55.00 48.00 48.00 48.00 48.00Year editedSuperflous( /MWh) ( /MWh) ( /MWh)Capacity Capacity (50% ofunitLowBaseHigh NCF (MW) Nameplate) (MW) available 70.00 80.00 90.00 15%3015.00 70.00 80.00 90.00 15%3015.002020 70.00 80.00 90.00 15%3015.00 70.00 80.00 90.00 15%3015.002022 75.00 85.00 95.00 15%3015.00 80.00 90.00 100.00 15%3015.002024 94.00 104.00 114.00 15%3015.00 94.00 104.00 114.00 15%3015.00 2026, 20284 Natural Gas Fuel Price AssumptionsFigure 4 shows the forecasted monthly natural gas fuel prices used in the 2016 resource plan. Otter Tailused the Wood Mackenzie January 2016 North American Power Service for determining the natural gasfuel prices used in the resource plan. Otter Tail evaluated natural gas prices at /- 25percent of the basecase and /- 50 percent of the base case and at 100 percent of the base case. The natural gas pricesensitivities are #7-11.Figure 4: Natural Gas Fuel Price Assumptions[PROTECTED DATA BEGINS PROTECTED DATA ENDS]5 Coal Price AssumptionsOtter Tail’s coal price forecasts for its three coal-fired thermal units are developed using existing coal andfreight contracts. For modeling purposes in this resource plan coal fuel prices are broken into twoportions: fixed fuel costs and variable fuel costs. The fixed fuel costs modeled for Hoot Lake and BigStone reflect the rail car lease costs[PROTECTED DATA BEGINS PROTECTED DATA ENDS](OTP portion) annually. The fixed fuel costs modeled for Coyote stationare modeled at [PROTECTED DATA BEGINS PROTECTED DATA ENDS] (OTPportion) annually and represent the non-variable portion of the fuel supply agreement.The variable cost portion of fuel costs are shown in Figure 5 (Big Stone plant), Figure 6 (Coyote station),and Figure 7 (Hoot Lake plant). Otter Tail evaluated coal price at /- 25% of the base case. The coalprice sensitivities are #12 and #13.
Appendix F: Strategist Modeling Assumptions 5PUBLIC DOCUMENT – NOT PUBLIC DATA HAS BEEN EXCISEDFigure 5: Big Stone Plant Coal Price AssumptionsFigure 6: Coyote Station Coal Price AssumptionsFigure 7: Hoot Lake Plant Coal Price Assumptions
Appendix F: Strategist Modeling Assumptions 6PUBLIC DOCUMENT – NOT PUBLIC DATA HAS BEEN EXCISED6 Load Growth AssumptionsFigure 8 shows the energy requirement assumptions used in the 2016 resource plan.sensitivities are #14 and #15.The load growthFigure 8: Load Growth 75,8675,837Energy Requirements gh7 Energy Efficiency Assumed in ForecastOtter Tail has been actively incorporating energy efficiency and Demand Side Management (DSM)programs in Minnesota since 1992. It can be assumed that as time goes on and energy efficiencyprograms grow, a portion of future energy efficiency will be included in the energy and demand forecasts.This conclusion was reached based on the fact that our historical load growth has been incrementallylowered by the existing energy efficiency programs which will translate to a lower future load growththrough the forecasting process. In other words, the forecast assumes additional new energy efficiency tomaintain the reduced load growth rates caused by the historical energy efficiency programs.Figure 9 shows the amount of existing DSM for each historical year, and the assumed amount of includedDSM in the future years required to maintain a similar load reduction.
Appendix F: Strategist Modeling Assumptions 7PUBLIC DOCUMENT – NOT PUBLIC DATA HAS BEEN EXCISEDFigure 9: DSM AssumptionsThe gap between the green and blue lines is the assumed new DSM that is “built-in” to the forecast. Thevalues for each year are listed in Figure 10.Figure 10: Built-In DSM/EEBuilt-in DSM (MWs)Built-in EE 9202932.3151.6203034.8163.2203137.2174.98 Market Energy Price AssumptionsOtter Tail used the Wood Mackenzie January 2016 North American Power Service as the basis for themarket energy prices used in the 2016 resource plan. Otter Tail applied the Wood Mackenzie forecastedmonthly average energy price to an hourly day-ahead (DA) load zone price profile to reflect the hourlyvariability/volatility of the energy market. Otter Tail evaluated market energy at /- 25% of the basecase. Figure 11 shows the market energy price basis for the assumptions used in the 2016 resource plan.Figure 11 shows the market capacity price basis for the assumptions used in the 2013 resource plan. Themarket price sensitivities are #16 and #17.
Appendix F: Strategist Modeling Assumptions 8PUBLIC DOCUMENT – NOT PUBLIC DATA HAS BEEN EXCISEDFigure 11: Market Energy Price Assumptions[PROTECTED DATA BEGINS PROTECTED DATA ENDS]9 Externality Price AssumptionsFigure 12 shows the externality price assumptions used in the 2016 resource plan. The values are fromthe Notice of Revised Updated Environmental Externality Values as issued by the Minnesota PublicUtilities Commission on May 27, 2015 and escalated at 2 percent. Hoot Lake, Solway, and marketpurchases use the “Rural” values. Big Stone plant and the proposed combustion turbine use the “within200 miles of Minnesota” values. Coyote Station does not have the externality values applied to it since itis over 200 miles from Minnesota, except for CO2 starting in 2022. The base case with externalities usesthe mid-point values. The low and high externality price sensitivities are #19 and #20 respectively.Sensitivity #21 used CO2 values that started at 59/ton starting in 2017 and increased by 1/ton until2022 where the mid-point range on CO2 resumed for the rest of the study period. Otter Tail did not applyany externality/allowance price to SO2 emissions.Figure 12: Externality Price ( /ton)Rural Externality values(used for HLP, Solway, 9 1034.25 0.40653.97CO2 (before 2022)0.442.494.53CO2 (starting 2022)9.0021.5034.00Within 200 milies of MNBeyond 200 milies of MN(used for BSP, new CT)(used for 0.000.000.0034.00
Appendix F: Strategist Modeling Assumptions 9PUBLIC DOCUMENT – NOT PUBLIC DATA HAS BEEN EXCISED10 New Thermal Alternative AssumptionsFigure 13 shows key assumptions used for new thermal alternatives in the 2016 resource plan.Figure 13: New Thermal Alternatives[PROTECTED DATA BEGINS PROTECTED DATA ENDS]11 Existing Unit Input AssumptionsFigure 14 shows key input assumptions used for existing baseload units. Figure 15 shows key inputassumptions used for existing peaking units. Figure 15 shows key input assumptions used for existingwind purchased power agreements. Figure 17 shows key assumptions used for Otter Tail-owned windgeneration that is modeled as transactions in Strategist.Figure 14: Existing Baseload Unit AssumptionsNameFuelExisting Baseload UnitsBig StoneCoyotesub-bituminouscoalRetirement DateNameplate Capacity(MW)Accredited Capacity(MW)Heat Rate at Minimum (Btu/kwh)Heat Rate at Maximum (Btu/kwh)O&M EscalationFixed O&M (2017 /kw-yr) Variable O&M (2017 /MWh) Jun-2046255.8238.811,65010,4502%10.611.44lignite coal Hoot Lake #2Hoot Lake #3sub-bituminous 56.612,31011,62010,90011,4822%2%11.44 31.061.73 0.44Jun-202181.479.811,34511,7552% 30.89 0.86
Appendix F: Strategist Modeling Assumptions 10PUBLIC DOCUMENT – NOT PUBLIC DATA HAS BEEN EXCISEDFigure 15: Existing Peaking Unit AssumptionsNameFuelRetirement DateNameplate Capacity(MW)Accredited Capacity(MW)Heat Rate at Minimum (Btu/kwh)Heat Rate at Maximum (Btu/kwh)O&M EscalationFixed O&M (2017 /kw-yr) Variable O&M (2017 /MWh) Existing Peaking UnitsSolwayLake Prestonnatural gasfuel 13,0002%2%17.76 6.864.09 5.79Jamestown 1fuel oilJun-203320.719.318,48013,0002% 6.28 5.79Jamestown 2fuel oilJun-203321.116.218,48013,0002% 6.16 5.79Figure 16: Existing Wind Energy Transaction AssumptionsExisting Wind Purchased Power TransactionsName(Edgeley)Langdon PPATransaction End DateNameplate Capacity(MW)Accredited Capacity(MW)Net Capacity a IIISmall DGSep-203862.415.442%Dec-2033NANANAFigure 17: Existing Otter Tail-Owned Wind AssumptionsExisting Otter Tail-Owned Wind (Modeled as Transactions in Strategist)NameLangdonAshtabulaTransaction End DateNameplate Capacity(MW)Accredited Capacity(MW)Net Capacity Factor12 Other AssumptionsGeneral Inflation Rate – 2%Capital Cost Escalation Rate – 3%Long Term Debt Rate – 5.51%Discount Rate – 8.61%Composite Tax Rate – -203449.513.540%
Figure 1: Sensitivities Evaluated 2 Wind Energy Assumptions Figure 2 shows the wind energy assumptions used in the 2016 resource plan. Otter Tail evaluated wind energy resource alternatives as purchased power agreements (PPA) with a 20 year term and fixed pricing over that term. Wind integration costs are
Issue of orders 69 : Publication of misleading information 69 : Attending Committees, etc. 69 : Responsibility 69-71 : APPENDICES : Appendix I : 72-74 Appendix II : 75 Appendix III : 76 Appendix IV-A : 77-78 Appendix IV-B : 79 Appendix VI : 79-80 Appendix VII : 80 Appendix VIII-A : 80-81 Appendix VIII-B : 81-82 Appendix IX : 82-83 Appendix X .
Appendix G Children's Response Log 45 Appendix H Teacher's Journal 46 Appendix I Thought Tree 47 Appendix J Venn Diagram 48 Appendix K Mind Map 49. Appendix L WEB. 50. Appendix M Time Line. 51. Appendix N KWL. 52. Appendix 0 Life Cycle. 53. Appendix P Parent Social Studies Survey (Form B) 54
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