ANALYSIS OF IMPROVED GOVERNMENT GEOLOGICAL MAP
Geological Survey of CanadaBulletin 593U.S. Geological SurveyProfessional Paper 1721ANALYSIS OF IMPROVED GOVERNMENTGEOLOGICAL MAP INFORMATION FORMINERAL EXPLORATION: INCORPORATINGEFFICIENCY, PRODUCTIVITY, EFFECTIVENESS,AND RISK CONSIDERATIONSR. Bernknopf, A. Wein, M. St-Onge, and S. Lucas2007Natural ResourcesCanadaRessources naturellesCanada
The CD-ROM accompanying this publication contains the full report, including anyoversized figures and/or A-series maps, in Portable Document Format (PDF). Oversizeditems may be purchased separately as paper plots from any Geological Survey of CanadaBookstore location:Geological Survey of Canada Bookstore (Ottawa)601 Booth StreetOttawa, OntarioK1A 0E8Tel.: 613-995-4342Tel.: 888-252-4301 (toll-free)Fax: 613-943-0646E-mail: gscbookstore@nrcan.gc.caWeb: http://gsc.nrcan.gc.ca/bookstore/index e.phpGeological Survey of Canada Bookstore (Atlantic)1 Challenger DriveP.O. Box 1006Dartmouth, Nova ScotiaB2Y 4A2Tel.: 902-426-4386Fax: 902-426-4848E-mail: Jennifer.Bates@nrcan-rncan.gc.caWeb: http://gsca.nrcan.gc.ca/pubprod/pubprod e.phpGeological Survey of Canada Bookstore (Calgary)3303-33rd Street, N.W.Calgary, AlbertaT2L 2A7Tel.: 403-292-7030Fax: 403-299-3542E-mail: gsc calgary@nrcan.gc.caWeb: http://gsc.nrcan.gc.ca/org/calgary/pub/bookstore e.phpGeological Survey of Canada Bookstore (Québec)490, rue de la CouronneQuébec, QuebecG1K 9A9Tel.: 418-654-2677Fax: 418-654-2660E-mail: cgcq librairie@rncan.gc.caWeb: l Survey of Canada Bookstore (Vancouver)625 Robson StreetVancouver, British ColumbiaV6B 5J3Tel.: 604-666-0271Fax: 604-666-1337E-mail: gscvan@gsc.nrcan.gc.caWeb: ex e.phpLe CD-ROM qui accompagne cette publication renferme le rapport au complet, y comprisles figures surdimensionnées ou les cartes de série A, s’il y a lieu, en format PDF. Pouracheter des copies papier des éléments surdimensionnés, adressez-vous à la Librairie dela Commission géologique du Canada :Librairie de la Commission géologique du Canada(Ottawa)601, rue BoothOttawa (Ontario)K1A 0E8Tél. : 613-995-4342Tél. : 888-252-4301 (sans frais)Télécopieur : 613-943-0646Courriel : librairiecgc@nrcan.gc.caWeb : http://cgc.rncan.gc.ca/librairie/index f.phpLibrairie de la Commission géologique du Canada(Atlantique)1 Challenger DriveP.O. Box 1006Dartmouth (Nouvelle-Écosse)B2Y 4A2Tél. : 902-426-4386Télécopieur : 902-426-4848Courriel : Jennifer.Bates@nrcan-rncan.gc.caWeb : http://gsca.nrcan.gc.ca/pubprod/pubprod f.phpLibrairie de la Commission géologique du Canada(Calgary)3303-33rd Street, N.W.Calgary (Alberta)T2L 2A7Tél. : 403-292-7030Télécopieur : 403-299-3542Courriel : gsc calgary@gsc.nrcan.gc.caWeb : http://gsc.nrcan.gc.ca/org/calgary/pub/bookstore f.phpLibrairie de la Commission géologique du Canada(Québec)490, rue de la CouronneQuébec (Québec) G1K 9A9Tél. : 418-654-2677Télécopieur : 418-654-2660Courriel : cgcq librairie@rncan.gc.caWeb : http://www.cgcq.rncan.gc.ca/bibliotheque/Librairie de la Commission géologique du Canada(Vancouver)625 Robson StreetVancouver (Colombie-Britannique)V6B 5J3Tél. : 604-666-0271Télécopieur : 604-666-1337Courriel : gscvan@gsc.nrcan.gc.caWeb : http://cgc.rncan.gc.ca/org/vancouver/bookstore/
Geological Survey of CanadaBulletin 593U.S. Geological SurveyProfessional Paper 1721ANALYSIS OF IMPROVED GOVERNMENTGEOLOGICAL MAP INFORMATION FORMINERAL EXPLORATION: INCORPORATINGEFFICIENCY, PRODUCTIVITY, EFFECTIVENESS,AND RISK CONSIDERATIONSR.L. Bernknopf, A.M. Wein, M.R. St-Onge, and S.B. Lucas2007i
Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada 2007ISSN 0068-7626Catalogue No. M42-593EISBN 978-0-660-19721-0Available in Canada from the Geological Survey of Canada Bookstore(see inside front cover for details)A copy of this publication is also available for reference in depositorylibraries across Canada through access to the Depository Services Program'sWeb site at http://dsp-psd.pwgsc.gc.caA free digital download of this publication is available from GeoPub:http://geopub.nrcan.gc.ca/index e.phpClick on "Free Download".Cover illustrationPortion of one of the Geological Survey of Canada's finer resolution bedrock maps forsouthern Baffin Island (Nunavut, Canada). The map published at 1:100 000 scaledocuments the distribution of principal tectonostratigraphic units of the Lake HarbourGroup: psammite and pelite (PLHp map unit) in yellow, marble (PLHc map unit) in blue,gabbro (PLHm map unit) in dark green, diorite (PLHd map unit) in pale green, peridotite(PLHu map unit) in purple, and leucogranite (PLHw map unit) in reddish brown. Thestratigraphic basement (PRm map unit) to the Lake Harbour Group is shown in pink.Two generations of thrust faults (open and closed teeth on hanging wall of individualfaults), post-thrusting folds (F3 fold axes), and structural point data (strike and dip ofplanar fabric; trend and plunge of linear fabric) are also shown.Critical reviewersR. AraucibiaA. GalleyW. HoltzG. RainesE. SchwereD. SingerAuthorsR.L. Bernknopf (rbern@usgs.gov),A.M.Wein (awein@usgs.gov)United States Geological Survey345 Middlefield Road, MS-531Menlo Park, 94025-3561California, U.S.A.M.R. St-Onge(mstonge@nrcan.gc.ca),Geological Survey of CanadaEarth Sciences SectorNatural Resources Canada601 Booth StreetOttawa, OntarioCanada K1A 0E8All requests for permission to reproduce this work, in whole or in part, forpurposes of commercial use, resale, or redistribution shall be addressed to:Earth Sciences Sector Information Division, Room 402, 601 Booth Street,Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0E8.iiS.B. Lucas (slucas@nrcan.gc.ca),Minerals and Metals SectorNatural Resources Canada580 Booth StreetOttawa, OntarioCanada K1A 0E4
CONTENTSAbstract . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5The geological map as a public good . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5The role of geoscientific information in attracting exploration investment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6Step 1: favourability indices and domains . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7Step 2: target densities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8Point estimate of target density per search unit. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8Uncertainty about the estimates of target density . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8Step 3: mineral exploration efficiency and productivity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9Model 1: minimizing the search area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9Model 2: maximizing the expected number of exploration targets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9Step 4: economic model (model 3) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11Exploration campaign statistics. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11Constrained optimization model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11The objective function V θ θ max F x f p θf . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12x f 0 Budget constraint Q ( I s , I t , M ) I s u x I t u x d x M . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12Risk constraint R(P, t) Bu x , d x (t 1) 1 P . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12Campaign target density constraint TD( E) d x E . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14Feasible and optimal solutions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14Relative effectiveness of the maps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15Step 5: value of improved map information . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15Application of the model. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16Assumptions of the analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16Case studies. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16Flin Flon Belt case study. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Geological maps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Favourability indices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Flin Flon Belt favourability domains and target densities. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Efficiency and productivity of Flin Flon Belt maps for mineral exploration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Flin Flon Belt mineral exploration campaign risk and benefit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .iii17171718202223
South Baffin Island case study . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24Geological maps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24Cape Smith Belt favourability domains and exploration target densities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25South Baffin Island favourability domains and adopted exploration target densities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28Mineral exploration efficiency and productivity of south Baffin Island maps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33Results for model 1: minimizing the search area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34Results for model 2: maximizing the mineral target potential . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34South Baffin Island exploration economic model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35South Baffin Island economic model constraints . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35Analysis of south Baffin Island exploration campaigns . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36Preferred solution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37Estimated net economic value of the updated, finer resolution maps for south Baffin Island . . . . . . . . . . . 38Discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Geoscientific information and mineral exploration investment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Applications of this work . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Shadowing geological information for inaccuracies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Alternative economic model formulations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Other improvements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .393940404041Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41Acknowledgments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42Appendix A: GIS method to delineate contacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44Appendix B: Kuhn-Tucker conditions for the optimal solution to model 3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45Figures1. Illustrative expected efficiency versus expected productivity curves . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2. Exploration preference and feasibility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3. Sensitivity of the risk constraint to the minimum number of targets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4. Sensitivity of risk constraint to the probability of finding at least 20 targets. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5. Comparison of optimal exploration campaigns . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6. Simplified geological map of Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7. Volcanic-hosted massive-sulphide favourability domains from the old,coarser resolution Flin Flon Belt map . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8. Volcanic-hosted massive-sulphide favourability domains from the updated,coarser resolution Flin Flon Belt map . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9. Volcanic-hosted massive-sulphide favourability domains from the updated,finer resolution Flin Flon Belt map . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10. Flin Flon Belt mineral exploration efficiency and effectiveness . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11. Flin Flon Belt exploration campaigns . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .12. Magmatic massive-sulphide favourability domains from the old,coarser resolution Cape Smith Belt map . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .iv101213141517202121222326
13. Magmatic massive-sulphide favourability domains from the updated,finer resolution Cape Smith Belt map . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14. Magmatic massive-sulphide favourability domains from the old,coarser resolution south Baffin Island map . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15. Magmatic massive-sulphide favourability domains from the updated,finer resolution south Baffin Island map . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16. Comparison of south Baffin Island favourability maps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .17. Results of models 1 and 2 for the south Baffin Island maps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .18. Economic model for the south Baffin Island maps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .19. Investment advantage of the south Baffin Island updated, finer resolution map . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .20. Exploration preference, feasibility, and constraints . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.19.20.21.22.23.24.Summary of case studies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Geospatial data used for the Flin Flon Belt case study area. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Favourability indices for the old, coarser resolution Flin Flon Belt map. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Geological unit coding scheme for the old, coarser resolutionFlin Flon Belt map favourability indices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Favourability indices for the updated, coarser resolution Flin Flon Belt map . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Favourability indices for the updated, finer resolution Flin Flon Belt map . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Geological unit coding scheme for the updated, finer resolutionFlin Flon Belt map favourability indices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Search units, exploration targets, and target density for the old,coarser resolution Flin Flon Belt map area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Search units, target density, and expected number of targetsper exploration campaign for the Flin Flon Belt maps. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Geospatial data used for the Cape Smith Belt area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Geospatial data used for the south Baffin Island case study area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Favourability indices for the Cape Smith Belt old, coarser resolution maps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Geological unit coding scheme for the Cape Smith Belt old,coarser resolution map favourability indices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Favourability indices for the Cape Smith Belt updated, finer resolution maps. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Geological unit coding scheme for the Cape Smith Belt updated,finer resolution map favourability indices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Empirical mineral exploration target densities for theCape Smith Belt updated, finer resolution map . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Empirical mineral exploration target densities for theCape Smith Belt old, coarser resolution map . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Favourability indices for the south Baffin Island old, coarser resolution map . . . . .
Ressources naturelles Canada Natural Resources Canada Geological Survey of Canada Bulletin 593 U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper 1721 R. Bernknopf, A. Wein, M. St-Onge, and S. Lucas 2007 ANALYSIS OF IMPROVED GOVERNMENT GEOLOGICAL MAP INFORMATION FOR MINERAL EXPLORATION: INCORPORAT
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