HUMANITARIAN NEEDS

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2018HUMANITARIANNEEDSOVERVIEWPEOPLE IN NEED3.3MDEC 2017AFGHANISTANPhoto: Jim Huylebroek/UNHCR

This document is produced on behalf of the Humanitarian Country Team and partners.This document provides the Humanitarian Country Team’s shared understanding of the crisis, including the most pressinghumanitarian needs and the estimated number of people who need assistance. It represents a consolidated evidence base andhelps inform joint strategic response planning.The designations employed and the presentation of material in the report do not imply the expression of any opinionwhatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or areaor of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or ianresponse.info/operations/afghanistan@OCHAAfg

PART I: PART ONE:SUMMARYHumanitarian needs & key figuresNeeds analysis: prioritisation and contextHumanitarian shocksImpact of the crisisBreakdown of people in needSeverity of needGeographic distribution of needs03

IRANMilak - ZaranjIslam Qala3.3MPEOPLE IN UNdUZPARWANsAMANgANBAMyANBAlkHA F G H A N I S TA NfARyABJAWZJANUZBEkIsTAN04INdIASource: IOM, OCHA ,UNHCRPakistani refugeesPakistani refugeemovementAfghan returneemovementUndocumented andregistered AfghanreturneesInternally displacedpersons JAMMU ANdkAsHMIRCONflICT sEVERITy-CHINAPART I:

PART I: humanitarian needs SummaryHUMANITARIANNEEDS SUMMARYAfghanistan is one of the world’s most complex humanitarianemergencies, characterised by escalating conflict, causingover one million people to be living in new and prolongeddisplacement. In 2018, 3.3 million people will need lifesaving assistance. Violations of international humanitarianand human rights law are commonplace, with frequentreports of summary executions,1 kidnappings,2 and attackson civilian infrastructure. Between 2014 and 2016 there wasa 110 percent increase in the number of healthcare facilitiesattacked (from 25 to 53) and a 163 percent increase (from72 to 189) on healthcare facilities closed by parties to theconflict.3 Civilian casualties are at the highest levels seen with8,019 documented in the first nine months of the year.4 Twothirds of these civilian casualties were women and children.5Amidst growing signs that what was once a low intensityconflict has now escalated into a war, the UN strategicreview of 2017 reclassified Afghanistan from a post-conflictcountry to one in active conflict.6 Eighty conflict incidentswere recorded each day between July and September in2017 – the highest number in six years – and sixteen districtadministrative centres (DACs) were attacked and taken overby the Taliban this year.7 The intensification of the conflict,combined with a surge in sectarian violence in Kabul, has ledto extremely high numbers of war wounded on both sides ofthe conflict.8 Between January and September 2017, healthpartners reported more than 69,000 trauma cases – a 21percent increase on those recorded during the same periodin 2016.Sustained levels of displacement – 360,000 people have beeninternally displaced so far during 2017 – combined withongoing returnee influxes of more than 546,000 have alsohad a profound impact in parts of the country; overloadinghealth facilities, schools, depressing labour wages andincreasing rents. In Nangarhar province alone, the numberof informal settlements increased from 29 to 53 betweenFebruary and July 2017 and the population size fromapproximately 429,000 to just under one million.9Recent assessments indicate that more than a third ofchildren have been exposed to psychological distress dueto loss of family and community members, and the constantrisk of death and injury - with this being as high as 68 percentin Kunduz. Conflict affected and returnee populations arealso more likely to utilise negative coping mechanisms suchas early and forced marriage, child labour,10 and familyseparation. They are also likely to be exposed to domesticand sexual violence11 and, even secondary and multipledisplacement. Over 50 percent of people displaced byconflict in Afghanistan have now been displaced twice ormore, compared to just seven percent five years ago.12After four decades of conflict, there are huge economic anddevelopment challenges in the country, which cannot beremedied by humanitarian aid. Approximately 39 percentof the population live below the poverty line,13 an estimated10 million people have limited or no access to essentialhealth services,14 and as many as 3.5 million children areout of school.15 Infant mortality rates are among the highestin the world at 70 per 1,000 live births,16 and Afghanistanremains one of only two countries globally where poliois endemic.17 Some 1.9 million people are severely foodinsecure, predominantly due to a lack of or limited access tosustainable job opportunities, while 40 percent of all childrenunder the age of five are stunted.18 In total, the humanitariancommunity has identified that 8.7 million people havechronic needs which require longer-term systemic actions toaddress.05

PART I: HUMANITARIAN key figuresHUMANITARIANKEY FIGURESTOTAL POPULATIONSEVERITY14M NUMBER OF PEOPLE LIVING IN 120 HIGHEST CONFLICT AFFECTED DISTRICTS-34.5MNUMBER OF PEOPLE WITH ACUTE HUMANITARIAN ED1.9M59%0.41M women0.40M men1.12M childrenNAT. DISASTERSCROSS-BORDER INFLUXNATURAL DISASTERAFFECTEDREFUGEERETURNEES405K12%80K women74K men251K 200K180K100K65K women66K men157K children46K women40K men114K children43K women43K men94K children11K women18K men71K children6%9%* Includes 107K aff. by locust infes.6%3%3.3m total also includes 168,000 people living in host hommunitiesFOODINSECUREPROTECTION &MINE RISK944KSEVERELY FOODINSECURE (IPC-4):FOOD ASSISTANCE FOR IDPS,RETURNEES, NAT.DIS. AFFECTED:992KFSACPEOPLE INNEED OF MINECLEARANCEPROTECTIONSERVICES:EMERGENCYHEALTH CARE88K1.5M69KTRAUMACARE NEEDS:EM. HEALTH CARESERVICES IN HIGHCONFLICT DISTS:PROTECTIONWATER SANITATION RGENCY &TRANSISTIONALSHELTER, NFI &WINTERISATION:0.7MPREGNANT MENTFOR U5 ACUTELYMALNOURISHED:WATER, SANITARION& HYGIENE:NEEDSEM. HEALTHCARE FORIDPS, RETURNEES :EMERGENCYSHELTER & NFISCHOOLINGNEEDS:431KSCREENING ON

PART I: Needs analysis prioritisation & contextNEEDS ANALYSISPRIORITISATION & CONTEXT“We affirm the primacy of the humanitarian imperative: that action should betaken to prevent or alleviate human suffering arising out of disaster or conflict,and that nothing should override this principle.”Humanitarian Charter and Minimum Standards in Humanitarian ResponseThe Sphere Handbook, 2011Noting the deepening conflict in Afghanistan, the UNrecently reclassified the country from one in post-conflict toone in active conflict.19 The humanitarian community hasnow reconsidered and differentiated between emergencyneeds arising from specific crises such as the armed conflictitself, from the underlying conditions which have persistedfor decades and which do not in themselves represent asudden increase demanding immediate humanitarian action.Afghanistan represents a protracted crisis and deep-rootedpoverty and socio-cultural factors have converged withdecades of conflict to generate different types and layers ofneed. Consequently, this HNO better distinguishes betweenthe 3.3 million people now requiring an internationalhumanitarian response from the much larger number whichhave not experienced a humanitarian shock.The 2018 HNO sharpens the humanitarian focus on acuteneeds arising from distinct drivers, from the manifoldneeds materialising from years of structural challenges andunderdevelopment. Indeed, the danger with labelling allneeds present in a humanitarian context as ‘humanitarian’is that agencies and partners will only address those in areaswhere they have existing programmes, rather than tacklingimmediate need in locations of highest severity, where liveswill be lost.Put differently, if the net is cast too wide, acute needs areobscured and prioritisation becomes more difficult. Thedistinction between life-threatening and chronic needsis therefore critical for humanitarians to be able to mosteffectively save lives and prevent or alleviate human sufferingarising out of conflict or disaster. This distinction also reflectswhat donors have requested for several years, and ensures amore responsible use of the limited humanitarian financingavailable.This is difficult in Afghanistan where a significant proportionof the population exhibit some form of chronic need; morethan one third of the population has been classified as foodinsecure for years, and every day harmful cultural andtraditional practices continue to deprive women and childrenof their human rights. However, the needs presented in thisanalysis stem from crisis as a result of conflict, disaster orlarge-scale population movement. Recognising this, and giventhat the conflict in Afghanistan is deepening in intensity andexpanding in geographic scope, it is vital to stay within clearhumanitarian parameters.Global benchmarks must therefore be contextualised.Analysis from the food fecurity and Agriculture cluster(FSAC) in 2017 (Seasonal Food Security Assessment andIntegrated Phase Classification exercise) reveals, for example,that the main causes of food insecurity are unrelated toconflict and natural disasters and are instead driven bythe loss of employment (38 percent), reduced income (18percent), severe sickness or natural death of the breadwinner(17 percent), livestock disease outbreak (14 percent) and foodprice increases (13 percent).20 The responses recommendedby FSAC to address them – education, employmentopportunities, livestock production enhancement and longterm investments in the agricultural sector – lie outside theremit of humanitarian action.At the same time, the burden of malnutrition has remainedconstant over the past three years, while the number of peopleliving in a catchment area ‘two or more hours’ away from abasic package of health services (BPHS) facility has remainedrelatively static. This indicates that millions of people arein ongoing situations of recurrent need year after yearrather than because of a specific shock. Supporting this, theAfghanistan nutrition cluster estimates that only 10 percent ofAfghanistan’s 1.6 million acutely malnourished children are sobecause of conflict.21Taking internationally defined thresholds as absolute andreading them in isolation is therefore misleading. Any needs– even at high levels – must be considered in the context inwhich they arise and examined in light of existing trends.22This then supports more robust needs analysis and enableseffective prioritisation.07

PART I: Humanitarian PhenomenaHUMANITARIANPHENOMENA“Afghanistan is not in a post-conflict situation but a country undergoing aconflict that shows few signs of abating.”Special report on the Strategic Review of the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan Report of theSecretary-General, 10 August 20171Conflict08Conflict continues to drivehumanitarian needs across Afghanistan.In the past 18 months nearly a millionAfghans were internally displaced,fleeing their homes to escape fighting,23and in 2016 Afghans comprised thesecond-largest group of asylum-seekersin Europe.24 On average 1,100 peopleeach day – two thirds of them womenand children – have been forciblydisplaced by violence in 2017.25 Afurther 900,000 IDPs currently live ininformal settlements characterised byinhuman living conditions and highlevels of food insecurity.26 Affectedcommunities are exposed to an arrayof protection risks, including familyseparation, forced recruitmentof children, and early marriage –sometimes of girls as young as nine – aswell as the loss of civil documentation.It is estimated that 80 percent ofinternally displaced Afghan womenlack proper identity papers.27 Of thecountry’s 400 districts, 120 are nowconsidered as highly conflict affected– a 50 percent increase from 2015.28With the current IDP system largelyor completely inaccessible for Afghansliving in non-government held areas,the numbers affected by conflict is likelyto be considerably higher than the 2.4million assessed.2NaturalDisastersNatural disasters are a recurringphenomenon affecting one quarter ofa million people per year on average.In February 2017, avalanches, snowfalland flooding affected 20,000 people andcaused significant damage to homes andlivelihoods in 22 out of 34 provinces.29Each year the country incursagricultural losses of approximatelyUS 280 million due to naturaldisasters, and it has been estimated thata severe (once in a lifetime) droughtcould raise this to 3 billion.30 Threedecades of conflict has compoundedAfghanistan’s susceptibility to droughtdue to either the destruction orinsufficient maintenance of irrigationinfrastructure, resulting in siltation,bank damage and vegetation growth.31In 2016 the government estimatedthat during the previous 30 years ofconflict, 4,850 irrigation networks hadbeen destroyed and did not work atall.32 While the past two years have seenbelow average natural disaster relatedneeds, the risk of a major drought,earthquake or flooding remains everpresent.3Cross BorderInfluxesMore than 151,000 people havereturned to Afghanistan from Pakistanin 2017, as well as 395,000 from Iran.33Returning populations are almostentirely dependent on extended familynetworks and internationally fundedassistance upon arrival, as well as beingexposed to many protection risksboth pre, and post, flight. About 58percent of returnees are under 18 yearsold with as many as 142,000 returneechildren expected to arrive and requireeducation in 2018. Especially vulnerableare the unaccompanied migrantchildren from Iran – of which morethan 2,000 have arrived in 2017 – aswell as single females and deportees.All of whom are at risk of trafficking,exploitative labour, and recruitmentinto armed groups.34 High levels ofreturns and internal displacement haveled to very significant demographicchanges: one in three people inNangarhar province is now either areturnee or IDP,35 and three years afterfleeing Pakistan, 100,000 refugeesare still living in Khost and Paktika.A recent assessment found that 55percent of refugees live in sub-standardshelters – either in tents or under plasticsheeting – 80 percent lack adequatetoilet facilities, and 46 percent areseverely food insecure.36

PART I: Impact of the CrisisIMPACT OF THECRISISIntensifying ViolenceConflict has further escalated across Afghanistan in 2017as the contest for territorial control continues. The first tenmonths of 2017 registered a 20 percent increase in ImprovisedExplosive Device (IED) detonations and a 110 percentincrease in air strikes, with similar levels of suicide attacksto 2016.37 The impact on the Afghan people has been severeas parties to the conflict repeatedly breach internationalhumanitarian law (IHL) designed to limit the effects ofarmed conflict on civilians. The use of heavy weaponry incivilian populated areas, the occupation and use of civilianinfrastructure for military purposes, attacks on schools,medical facilities and aid workers, as well as deliberateattempts to block the delivery of humanitarian assistance toaffected people, have all been widely documented. Already in2017, civilian casualties are at similar levels to 2016 with 8,019(2,640 deaths and 5,379 injuries) recorded.38 While groundengagements continue to account for most casualties, the risein civilian deaths due to suicide and complex attacks, targetedand deliberate killings, pressure-plate improvised explosivedevices (PPIEDs) and air strikes, which disproportionatelyaffect women and children, is of particular concern.In October, six attacks in the space of just five days killedmore than 240 people and injured a further 300 in whatmarked one of the deadliest weeks for the civilian populationand Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF)in 2017.39 Such was the level of harm inflicted by theattacks, EMERGENCY NGO Hospital in Kabul reported anunprecedented 60 new weapon wounded admissions within09CONFLICT SEVERITY IN 2017sEVERITy- r ilmand* September figure of newly displaced is not yet verifiedand, therefore, not included in the reported 197,000.KabulKunarNangarharPaktya NimrozBaghlanSar-e-PulBadghisBadakhshanThe conflict severity ischaracterised by three indicators,namely security incidents, civiliancasualties and conflict induceddisplacement over the past year.The shading on the map is basedon an average of unweightedranking of provinces on theseindicators.

PART I: Impact of the Crisisthe space of 72 hours, with the majority in a serious conditionand requiring urgent surgical treatment.SEVERITY OF NEEDS: CONFLICTAn average of 6,700 trauma cases nowoccur each monthOverall, EMERGENCY NGO Hospital report increasednumbers of war wounded referrals from provinces outsideof Kabul, including Ghazni, Kapisa and Panjshir, as masscasualty incidents continue to rise and first aid trauma Posts(FATPs) are unable to deal with the complexity and severityof injuries seen. For those who survive, more than a thirdsuffer life-changing injuries including the amputation of oneor more limbs requiring post-operative rehabilitative careand long-term disability and psychosocial support. Alreadyin 2017, health partners have reported 69,013 trauma cases– a 21 percent increase on those occurring during the sameperiod last year.4010While the civilian population has endured greater levels ofviolence in 2017 this has not translated into greater levels ofdisplacement. A change in non-state armed group (NSAG)tactics away from major offensives on large populationcentres41 to more targeted assaults on military checkpointsand infrastructure, reinforced by special forces operationsand aerial support, are the main reasons behind the relativedecline in figures compared to 2016. The ‘hollowing out’of significantly conflict affected areas, inaccessibility ofSEVERITY OF NEEDS- the official IDP petition system for those living in nongovernment held areas, and increasingly prolonged periodsof displacement experienced by displaced populations, arealso likely contributory factors. Indeed, with less than 20percent of new IDPs able to return home after their initialdisplacement, more are finding themselves with little choicebut to reside in informal settlements.42 The number of thesehas increased from 300 to 623 in the last five years aloneacross the 19 provinces hosting the largest number of IDPs.43INTERNALLY DISPLACED PERSONS, AFGHAN RETURNEES AND NATURAL DISASTER AFFECTED (IN THOUSANDS)New internal displacements due to conflictTOTAL (JAN-OCT 2017)300360,000Afghan returnees from PakistanTOTAL (JAN-OCT 2017)151,00019220010052Ongoingconflictcontinues todestabilize thevulnerable41313241421281246365232July 2016October 2016February 2017Significant spikein returnees fromPakistan followinga push for people to leavewith new arrivals peaking ata daily average high of 6,000by the 4th quarter.Assault on Kunduzleaves almost118,000 displaced andsome government buildingstemporarily under NSAGcontrol, almost a year to theday after the city first fell intoopposition group hands.Following flooding,the Islam Qala borderpoint is closed promptinglarge-scale returns throughthe Milak crossing fromIran. 195,000 return infive months overwhelmingresponse capacity in

This document is produced on behalf of the Humanitarian Country Team and partners. This document provides the Humanitarian Country Team’s shared understanding of the crisis, including the most pressing humanitarian needs and the estimated number of people who need a

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