3D Printing: Ensuring Manufacturing Leadership In The 21st .

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3D Printing: Ensuring Manufacturing Leadership in the 21st Century3D Printing: ensuringmanufacturing leadershipin the 21st centuryPublic/private partnerships pavethe way to become the next globaldesign and manufacturing leaderHP Copyright 20181

3D Printing: Ensuring Manufacturing Leadership in the 21st CenturyExecutive summaryWe are in the early days of a 4th Industrial Revolution,a far-reaching analog-to-digital shift that willcompletely transform the 12 trillion globalmanufacturing industry.and continents. The World Economic Forum hasestimated the overall value of the global digitaltransformation to business and society across allindustries at 100 trillion in the next ten years alone.It will fundamentally change the way we conceive,design, produce, distribute, and consume nearlyeverything, with enormous impact to jobs, industries,and economies. It’s a digital industrial revolutionspearheaded by the accelerating growth of 3Dprinting, and its leaders will be defined by their abilityto harness the full power of this truly disruptivetechnology.The 3D printing industry is currently at a technologicaland economic inflection point that is opening the doorto a digital reinvention of the worldwidemanufacturing sector, and the countries who act toembrace it now will secure their place at the table ofglobal leadership and innovation for generations tocome.In manufacturing’s all-digital near-future, designerswill create entirely new categories of products,unconstrained by traditional processes as the linebetween idea and physical reality erodes. Andmanufacturers, no longer tethered to overseasfactories, will move physically closer to the consumer,shortening supply chains with the newfound ability tocustom-produce anything, anytime, anywhere.Four to 6 trillion (USD) of the global economy will bedisrupted and redistributed in the next 10 years due tothe accelerating growth of 3D printing, according to anew study conducted by A.T. Kearney.Jobs will shift around the globe, with manufacturingjobs migrating to places where 3D printing is fullyembraced. Countries with strong existing consumerbases will be able to leverage those bases intoopportunities for job creation. Countries with strongexisting manufacturing economies will need to adopt3D printing quickly to secure the future growth of theirworkforces. And the new 3D manufacturing workforcewill be one that’s skilled-up, tech-savvy, and highly indemand as it helps to push their nations to theforefront of global technology and innovationleadership.Those who fail to act will risk securing their share of ahistoric new wave of value creation across industriesHP Copyright 2018The ability to create, maintain, or revitalize amanufacturing economy. Driving a global shift of thismagnitude by leveraging 3D printing technology andapplications will rely heavily on public/privatepartnerships.Comprehensive government engagement is requiredfor nations to realize the vast economic potential of3D printing in the fully-digitized new world. It isimperative that federal, state, and local policymakersdrive three key policy catalysts to build a successfuland sustainable 3D printing ecosystem: Education,Adoption, and Incentives.Leaders need to focus on creating new educationalprograms and incentives for engineers to learn 3Ddesign, and to train educators to teach futuregenerations of innovators. By supporting R&D in theirown leading educational institutions, countries willfoster the growth of broad 3D print capabilities andecosystems to advance their competitive positions inthe global marketplace.Building incentives to accelerate the adoption of 3Dprinting, especially at the state and city level, will spurdevelopment of a complete 3D ecosystem that willattract manufacturing, create robust new markets,and ensure leadership and prosperity in the 4thIndustrial Revolution and beyond.2

3D Printing: Ensuring Manufacturing Leadership in the 21st CenturyTable of contentsExecutive summary. 2Table of contents . 3Background and context: past, present, and future of global manufacturing . 5Global manufacturing: . 51st industrial revolution: mechanical production . 52nd Industrial revolution: mass production . 63rd Industrial revolution: production automation. 64th Industrial revolution: digital manufacturing and smart production. 7The future of manufacturing . 12Opportunities for leaders. 13Value at play . 15Economic value. 15Jobs . 17New skill sets . 19Sustainability . 21Technology and innovation . 22Risks of inaction . 23National security . 23Domestic security . 24The global race is ON. 253D Printing country index . 29Leaders . 29Challengers. 29Followers . 303D Printing country index year-over-year change . 30Implications for leaders . 34Securing our manufacturing leadership in core 3D Printing through public/private actions . 35Enablers needed for 3D Printing . 35Catalysts for growth . 37Education . 38Adoption . 39HP Copyright 20183

3D Printing: Ensuring Manufacturing Leadership in the 21st CenturyIncentives . 40Ensuring a reliable legal framework . 41Policymaker actions . 42Federal policy actions. 43State policy actions. 47Local policy actions . 50Conclusion: A call to action . 52Appendix 1: About the study . 53Appendix 2: Bibliography . 54HP Copyright 20184

3D Printing: Ensuring Manufacturing Leadership in the 21st CenturyBackground and context: past, presentand future of global manufacturingThe global manufacturing sector makes up 16% of the global economy113—and is on the verge of beingfundamentally transformed by a 4th industrial revolution. 3D printing (frequently called additive manufacturing,which incorporates multiple technologies including 3D printing) is a key element of this global analog-to-digitaldisruption. It is as transformational to the design, production, and distribution of goods as the computer was foraccess to information. It will drive the production of goods closer to the consumer, democratizing manufacturingon a worldwide scale and allowing products to mass-customize to match the needs of a growing globalconsumer base.Global manufacturing: on the verge of a 4th industrial revolutionThe world is on the verge of a 4th industrial revolution that will fundamentally transform manufacturing.New technologies such as artificial intelligence, augmented reality, advanced robotics, and smart devicesare blurring the line between the digital and physical worlds, but none more so than 3D printing.1st industrial revolution: mechanical productionDuring the late 1700’s and early 1800’s, the inventions of the steam engine, the power loom, and the telegraphkicked off trends that would have lasting effects on the global economy. The invention of the power loom createdthe concept of mechanical production and enabled access to textiles; it created a central source of production invillages and communities, building the idea of economies of scale. While this is considered the first mechanicalproduction, it was still relatively decentralized, supporting only local communities. The steam engine created afaster form of transportation and the telegraph enabled cross-geography communications. These began a shifttowards globalization and connectivity.46, 47Over the course of the 1st industrial revolution, GDP per capita in the USA increased by 80%, and the populationbegan a steady shift to centralized locations, noted by a 15% reduction in the rural population.59, 73, 74Britain led the first industrial revolution, creating a monopoly on machinery, skilled manufacturing workers, andmanufacturing techniques from 1760 to 1830. France was a fast follower, and became an industrial power by1848, but was unable to catch up to Britain’s lead. Much of Eastern Europe fell behind in the 1st revolution andcontinues to lag behind western Europe in infrastructure and economic value today.1 Mechanical production 2 Mass production3 Production automation 4 Digital manufacturing K403020100Laggards50Leaders60 GDP per capita 80% GDP per capita 320% GDP per capita 220% GDP per capita continues to grow Avg. life expectancy 30 years Avg. life expectancy 59 years Avg. life expectancy 74 years Avg. life expectancy extends 90% of population lived inrural areas Majority of population lived in cities Population Globalization and Missing foundation forsubsequent industrialrevolution Insufficient production capabilities toserve rising populations Lack basic infrastructure andservices of the 20th century Limited access to goods duringwartime Reduced relevance to globalizationand global economy move to major metropolis’ Stagnant to decline in employment Continued increase in gap ofinfrastructure, services, and income Increasing income inequality1800Steam enginePower loomTelegraphSewing machine19001775178518361844TelephoneLight bulbInduction electric motorAssembly line20001876187918851913Integrated circuit3D print prototypingPersonal ComputerInternetToday1960196719751990CloudAdvanced RoboticsWearables3D print manufacturing20082010201420161Figure 1: The History of Industrial RevolutionsSource: 2, 6, 59, 74, 105, 114HP Copyright 20185

3D Printing: Ensuring Manufacturing Leadership in the 21st Century2nd Industrial revolution:mass productionIn the late 1800’s development of the telephonecontinued the trends started by the telegraph. Theintroduction of the light bulb and the electric motorheralded the ability to use electricity as a source ofenergy. Finally, the advent of the first assembly linein 1913 by Henry Ford created the concept of “massproduction.” It reduced the time to build the Model Tby 70%, moving from 12 hours to 2 hours and 30minutes, allowing 10 million Model T’s to be built by1924.46The combination of these technologies drove theUSA GDP per capita to increase by a staggering320%. Life expectancy jumped from 30 to 59 years,and the majority of the population moved to live inmajor cities, where they could access the goods andservices driven by mass manufacturing.1143rd Industrial revolution:production automationIn 1960, the integrated circuit was developed, andthe semiconductor industry began to boom, drivingthe growth of Silicon Valley. Over the subsequent 30years, inventions such as the personal computer andthe internet made access to informationcommonplace. In the manufacturing sector, whatwas once done through mechanical forces becamean automated process, using computer systems androbotics to automate production processes. It wasduring this time, in 1981, that 3D printing wasinvented, but at the time was viewed as aprototyping and design tool, not intended forfinished parts.29labor for manufacturing that is not yet fullyautomated. While the US is still a critical player in theglobal-value chain, the shift of manufacturingoverseas reduced total US manufacturing sector jobsby 30% between 2000 and 2010, and created anemployment gap in core manufacturing parts of thecountry. As China has increased in economic growth,labor costs have started to rise, driving production toeven lower labor cost countries.71 During the 3rdindustrial revolution, information, communication,and travel became so accessible that manufacturingcould be shifted globally to further leverageeconomies of scale and low labor costs. In addition,growing economic prosperity increased cost of laborin the leading countries of the 1st and 2nd industrialrevolutions. The combined trends drovemanufacturers to begin moving production to lowerlabor cost locations, and the original manufacturingeconomies in countries such as the US, UK, Germany,and Japan began a decline. As recently as the year2000, the EU, US, and Japan made up 70% of theglobal manufacturing value add, which has declinedto about 43% today. Meanwhile, China has grownfrom only 7% of global manufacturing to 24% in2016.113Each of the past three Industrial Revolutions hasdriven global growth in manufacturing, GDP growthand improved overall living conditions for theimpacted populations. Technologies have drivenglobalization and centralization of manufacturing toachieve economies of scale. Populations havemoved to major cities to allow access to goods andservices not available to rural communities, and ruralcommunities have steadily declined in relativeprosperity. Countries that have not taken advantageof these revolutions have fallen further behind.With these innovative technologies, the globalmanufacturing sector boomed to where it is today,a 12 trillion (USD) industry accounting for 310million jobs worldwide. The supply chain becameglobalized and increasingly complex during the 3rdindustrial revolution, as companies began tooptimize for cost and shift manufacturing to lowercost economies.113China became the global leader in manufacturinglate in the 3rd industrial revolution based on totaleconomic value, overtaking the US by capitalizing onthe shift towards globalization and the lower cost ofHP Copyright 20186

3D Printing: Ensuring Manufacturing Leadership in the 21st Century4th Industrial revolution: digitalmanufacturing and smart productionThe recent advent of technologies such as artificialintelligence, augmented reality, advanced robotics,smart devices, and 3D printing are driving a newrevolution that is accelerating the shift towardsdigitalization that began with the 3rd industrialrevolution and the dawn of the computer age. Duringthat period, the connection between the digital andphysical worlds was limited to a few mechanisms insparse locations, but now access to that power isbeing democratized to the level of individual creatorsand consumers.Wearables and augmented reality are creatingaccess to information in real time. The Internet ofThings is generating user data at unprecedentedspeeds. Advanced analytics and artificial intelligenceare allowing people to act on an abundance ofinformation quickly and decisively. Sensors havedigitized the physical world, and now 3D printing isenabling physical output from entirely digitalinformation.The technologies of the 4 Industrial Revolution areholistically transforming all stages of the traditionalproduct manufacturing lifecycle: design, prototyping,production, distribution, and end of life. The newtools will accelerate the product lifecycle and changethe fundamental drivers of the global supply chainstructure. A report from the World Economic Forumestimates that the overall economic value ofdigitization across all industries worldwide will be 100 trillion in the next 10 years alone.24thThe 4th Industrial Revolution will continue the trendin driving overall economic prosperity and expansionof manufacturing. But with increasing productivity,total jobs may not grow within the manufacturingsector, and the jobs that are created will shift toeconomies leading in manufacturing. Manufacturingwill be redistributed closer to the consumer. WhileHP Copyright 2018there are still cost drivers to re-shore manufacturingto lower cost economies, domestic manufacturing isbecoming more feasible due to moderntechnologies, rising labor costs in traditional lowercost economies, high international shipping costs,and high risks in the global economy. For example,three major companies in the US (Walmart, Ford, andBoeing) have announced manufacturing facilitiesthat will return 22,000 manufacturing jobs tothe US.87There will be winners and losers in this shift.Manufacturers will identify geographies that balanceproximity to the consumer, skilled workforceavailability, and raw material access with geopoliticalfactors such as economic incentives, regulatoryenvironment, and risk profile. The geographiesselected for manufacturing have a huge opportunityfor growth in revenue and jobs.This slowing shift of manufacturing to low-costcountries is driven by three key elements of the4th Industrial Revolution: An increase in productivity due to technologies likeadvanced robotics and artificial intelligence An ability to produce custom goods any time and anyplace with 3D printing, increasing the value ofproximity to the end customer An increased expectation by consumers for fast,convenient, customized service3D printing is to goods what the personal computerwas to information. Manufacturing centers whereindividuals and entrepreneurs are able to design andmanufacture their own unique products andsolutions are becoming more accessible in moreplaces. Manufacturing is being broadlydemocratized, like information was during the 3rdIndustrial Revolution, making 3D printing the driverof the new digital revolution and the key to thefuture of the global manufacturing economy.7

3D Printing: Ensuring Manufacturing Leadership in the 21st CenturyGlobal manufacturing sector: key facts The global manufacturing sector is:110– 12 trillion US dollars– 16% of the global economy– 310 million jobs worldwide Manufacturing in the European Union is 15% of EU total value added China has recently become the largest manufacturing hub in the world Though the trend has slowed in recent years, manufacturing continues toshift and centralize in regions with lower labor costs Consumption continues to grow across the globe in both developed and developing countriesTotal global manufacturing sector ( tn)Value added1312111098765431991Proportion ofmanufacturingsector by country1995200022%2%Manufacturing in the US97 2.2T, or 17% of the global sector 12.3 M direct and 17.1 M indirectjobs Every 1 spent in manufacturingadds 1.81 to the economy The US currently imports 3 T ingoods, annuallyHP Copyright 20182%25%EU2010USAJapan18%201525%27%26%7%18%Figure 2: Global Manufacturing Value AddedSources: World Bank, 97, 110200530%17%18%10%ChinaManufacturing in China7 2.9T, or 24% of the global sector 99 M jobs – 13% of Chineseworkers China produces the vast majorityof several major goods: 90% ofPC’s, 80% of air conditioners,63% of shoes19%3%Korea24%7%Rest worldManufacturing inthe EU108, 110 2.3T, or 19% of the global sector 30 M jobs (direct and indirect) 16% of EU GDP Germany is the largestmanufacturing country in Europe,accounting for 32% of EU totalmanufacturing output8

3D Printing: Ensuring Manufacturing Leadership in the 21st Century3D Printing: spearheading the 4thIndustrial Revolution3D Printing 1013D printing is the process of adding and bonding layers ofmaterial to form a part. This contrasts with traditionalmanufacturing processes that either mold the finished partall at once (e.g., injection molding or casting) or aresubtractive, removing material from a larger bulk to create afinished product (e.g., milling or stamping).3D printing takes a design file and raw material inputs, and isable to generate a nearly finished part in a matter of hours.Printed parts are not limited by the same constraints astraditional manufacturing, so assembly steps can beremoved, fasteners reduced, etc.How it works3D Printing is a manufacturing process thatcreates objects by laying down successive layersof material. Additive manufacturing is also usedto describe this, but covers additional processes.3D designs are different from designs in traditionalmanufacturing. A raw three-dimensional file withinformation regarding dimensions can be fed directly to the3D printer. Traditional processes, such as injection molding,are not digitally linked directly to a design file. In addition, thedesigns for a 3D printer are not constrained by the samebarriers as traditional manufacturing processes. Forexample, injection molding designs typically require a draftangle and seam so that the part can be ejected from themold. 3D printing processes do not. This is a simplifiedexplanation, but there are many design constraints oftraditional processes to which 3D printing is not limited.A user can input raw materials and a digital file,and 3D printing outputs a solid, 3-dimensionalobject, like printers do for 2-dimensional objects.3D printing materials also differ from traditional materials,coming in different forms and requiring modified propertiesto allow bonding. The material used in 3D printing is typicallyin a wire or powder form, depending on the technology used.Today, the variety of materials for 3D printing is muchsmaller than that of traditional processes, but this isexpected to expand drastically in the coming years, similarlyto how plastics are now custom to application in injectionmolding, and metal properties are custom to application incasting processes. Voxel. the voxel is the smallest unit ofmeasure in 3D printing, a volumetric pixel;it is the 3-dimensional equivalent of a pixel3D printing was invented in 1967, when the first patent wasgranted for Method of Producing a 3D Figure by Holography.Since its birth, 3D printing has been seen as a tool forprototyping and design, with limited applications for endproducts. Within the last five years, the paradigm has shifted.Recent technological breakthroughs position 3D printing tocreate major disruptions in the coming years: Introduction of more and better materials:as more players enter the market, the materialHP Copyright 2018There are several different technologies for 3Dprinting production: material jetting, powder bedfusion, photo-polymerization, etc. Eachtechnology is used for different technicalrequirements including material variety, speeds,quality of finish, etc.Key terms 3D printing – 3-dimensional printingBenefits Increase production flexibility (batch size of 1is possible and economically viable, in cases) Speed up design iteration and go-to-markettiming Allow for distributed production (localmanufacturing) Allow for optimized designs with reduceddesign constraints Enable fully customized products at areasonable cost Print on demand and limit need for inventory Decrease material waste9

3D Printing: Ensuring Manufacturing Leadership in the 21st Century3D Printing use casesportfolio and variety of printers that can use thosematerials is increasing Increase in printing speed; new printers and new printertechnologies, such as the HP Multi Jet Fusion 3D, arebreaking down the speed barriers of single laser 3Dprinting systemsVarious industries already use 3D printing, both inprototyping and production, and benefit from itsadvantages.10, 52, 62Aerospace ‒ Airbus Jetliner Parts3D Printing unlocked an optimizeddesign that uses 90% less rawmaterial, 90% less energy duringproduction and 55% weightreduction Improvement in the printer envelope size; engineeringenhancements are enabling larger and larger printerenvelope sizes Enhanced quality of the 3D printed parts; strength andconsistency of 3D printed parts are moving closer andcloser to traditional counterpartsHealthcare & Medical Devices ‒Hearing Aids3D Printing unlocked the opportunityto manufacture highly customizedhearing aids and to reducemanufacturing steps by 70% Increased level of control. Recent technologies, such asHP’s Multi Jet Fusion, can control material and printproperties down to the voxel level (3D equivalent of apixel)New uses such as dental correction devices and hearing aidshave shown the opportunity to use 3D printing to customizeproducts for the masses. New material capabilities such asgold, silver, and even organics have entered the market. 3Dprinters have also been developed for the maker’smovement, and the idea of 3D printers is commonplace.Consumer Products ‒ Loom Dress3D Printing allowed for complexweave that cannot be achievedthrough traditional processes,ultimately creating clothing thatadapts to human movement andintended functionalityThe entrance of major companies like GE and HP into the 3Dprinting market have driven capabilities towards “productionready” printers.Current status5 years viewFuture 3DP vs Trad. Mfg. cost: 5 timesPart design: surface and process oriented3D Printer: CellularApplications: hearing aids & dental, singlepart, single color3DP vs Trad. Mfg. cost: 3 timesPart design: function and volume oriented3D Printer: fit into some production systemsApplications: footwear, aerospace and automotivecomponents, sub-assembly printed in a single part,multi-colorLow volume / high unit cost / need for customization20153DP vs Trad. Mfg. cost:

transformation to business and society across all industries at 100 trillion in the next ten years alone. The 3D printing industry is currently at a technological . 3D Printing: Ensuring Manufacturing Leadership in the 21

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