Bear Market Guidebook - UBS
January 2019Chief Investment Office GWMInvestment ResearchBear marketguidebookHow to prepare for the next market downturn
IntroductionDear reader,We expect the current economic expansion and equity bull market to continue for several years. Even so, investors should notwait until the next downturn is imminent before they take commonsense steps to plan for one.Although they are a natural part of the investing experience, there’sa certain taboo about discussing bear markets and recessions, as ifacknowledging them increases the likelihood of experiencing one.Michael CrookHead AmericasInvestment StrategyInterestingly, this superstition is paralleled in the etymology ofbear markets’ namesake. In Proto-Indo-European—a predecessorto most modern-day languages—the word for ‘bear’ was ‘rktos’.That ancient root still lives on in words like Arctic, but the modernname for ‘bear’ in English comes from a different origin altogether, from a root word meaning “the brown thing.” Some linguistshypothesize that this evolution—which occurred in virtually allmodern languages—was due to a superstition that saying usingthe bear’s ‘true name’ would summon one.In investing, this taboo is counterproductive. After all, by studyingbear markets closely, investors will learn that they aren’t as dangerous as they seem, and by cutting through the many misconceptionswe can lay the foundation for protecting ourselves against them.In this report, we attempt to answer three questions:Justin WaringInvestmentStrategist Americas1. What are the characteristics of a bear market?2. How can we prepare our portfolios and financial plans forthe next downturn?3. What steps should we take in the middle of a bear market?It’s important to note that there is no panacea for bear markets. Almost all investors will experience at least a handful of bear markets,both in working years and during retirement, and they will be painful.But there’s a difference between pain and damage, and our research tells us that bear market protection doesn’t have to be expensive—especially if investors are proactive.As we’ll show in this report, bear markets needn’t be a threat tofinancial success. In fact, for the well-prepared, they can be an opportunity to improve long-term returns.This report has been prepared by UBS Financial Services Inc.Please see important disclaimers and disclosures at the end of this document.Bear market guidebook3
Contents05Part 1Bear marketcharacteristics08Part 2Before the bearshows up15Part 3What to do duringa bear market4Bear market guidebook
Part 1Bear market characteristicsLet’s start with the definition of what constitutes a bear market.Although there is some debate, we definea bear market as an episode where USlarge-cap stocks fall by at least 20% frompeak to trough. Rather than focus only onthe peak-to-trough drop time period—what we call the “drawdown” period—we also include the time that it takes forstocks to register another all-time high—what we call the “recovery” period.The 20% threshold may seem arbitrary,but it is useful because it filters out alarge number of painful-but-short-liveddrawdowns for that asset class. For dropsgreater than 10%, but less than 20%, wegenerally call them ‘bull market corrections.’ For less-than-10% drops, there areno agreed-upon definitions. Selloffs of thismagnitude are fairly common, and shortlived, and usually earn names like ‘dip,’‘selloff,’ ‘reversal,’ ‘pullback’ or ‘slide.’It’s also important to note that, generallyspeaking, risk and return parameters arenot relevant if we apply them directly toother asset classes or portfolios. After all,a ‘big’ percentage change for one assetclass may be a relatively minor move foranother asset class or investment strategy.So while we use US large-cap stocks as thebasis for defining bear markets, this is onlyfor clarity, not because we’re suggestingthat investors should measure their performance against an all-equity benchmarklike the S&P 500.With this definition in mind, let’s look athistorical returns to evaluate what marketcycles look like using our framework.Bear market guidebook5
Bear market characteristicsFigure 1Figure 2Bear markets are rare, and over relatively quicklyUS large-cap stocks, monthly returns since 1945, logarithmic scaleStocks have spent about 2/3rd of the time at,or within 10% of, an all-time high1,000,000Time spent by market environment, US large-cap stocks, monthly returns since 1945100,000All-time highOther*10,00020%Bull market correction1,000DrawdownRecoveryBear market10010134%31%11%19451955196519751985Bull marketBear market drawdownBull market correctionBear market recovery2005199520153%Note: ‘Bull market’ denotes periods where US large-cap stocks are at, or within 10% of,an all-time highSource: Morningstar Direct, R: PerformanceAnalytics, UBS, as of 4 January 201932%* A less-than-10% drop from last all-time highSource: Morningstar Direct, R: PerformanceAnalytics, UBS, as of 4 Jamiary 2019.Figure 3Diversified portfolios are designed to protect against the most painful parts of equity bear marketsComparative statistics for equity bear markets since World War IIPeak 5715562119136US large-cap stocksLength of prior bull market*204190845017915887PeakTime between market 2009Recovery �42.6%–29.6%–44.7%–51.0%–34.5%Time to full recovery (new all-time high)4116284221745339Drawdown time6619213251614Max drawdownRecovery time351092118493726Months of prior gains 1/198730/09/200228/02/2009Recovery �26.4%–17.4%–21.7%–29.9%–19.9%3060/40 stock/bond portfolioMax drawdownTime to full recovery (new all-time high)29152537175038Drawdown time6619213251614Recovery time23961614252216Months of prior gains 'erased'141719255352120Source: Source: UBS, Morningstar Direct, R: PerformanceAnalytics, as of 18 October 2018* Months from previous trough to this cycle peak** Months between previous peak and this cycle peak6Bear market guidebook
Bear market characteristicsFigure 4Adding bonds significantly reduces bear market risk, in both pain and durationPost-WWII bear market performance, based on asset allocation (US large-cap stocks and intermediate US gov’t bonds)Performance during post-WWII bear marketsAllocation(stock/bond)Averagedrawdown100% / 0%Average months ofgains erasedAverage time underwater (months)WorstdrawdownLongest time underwater (months)–34%6539–51%7490% / 10%–31%6038–46%7380% / 20%–28%5535–41%6570% / 30%–24%5333–36%5960% / 40%–20%4730–30%5050% / 50%–16%3425–24%4040% / 60%–11%3014–17%2930% / 70%–7%2310–12%2420% / 80%–4%169–7%2410% / 90%–2%106–4%190% / 100%–1%22–3%5Less timeMore timeSource: Morningstar Direct, R: PerformanceAnalytics, UBS, as of 4 January 2019Rather than thinking of markets as a“cycle” or a “clock,” this data helps us tosee that markets are more like a runawaytrain when viewed over the long term. Asinvestors, our job is to try to keep up withthe train, which rarely stops and nevertruly goes backwards.This context is important as we askourselves how much long-term growthwe’re willing to forfeit in order to improveour comfort level during the painful-butrare ‘pauses.’Lookout stopSince 1945, US large-cap stocks have spentapproximately 25 years at an all-time high,24 years within 10% of an all-time high, twoyears in a bull market correction, and 22 yearsin a bear market.Bear market guidebook7
Part 2Before the bear shows upUnfortunately, history tells us that thequest for “the perfect hedge” may bea wild goose chase. No matter howwell-intended or designed, the strategiesthat provide the most potent protectionagainst equity downside risk also tend tobe the most costly in terms of sacrificinglong-term growth potential.8Bear market guidebookThat’s particularly true if the goal is tohedge against all downside movements,instead of only against the long and deepsell-offs that characterize bear markets.That’s because—in order to make sure thatthere is a high negative correlation duringall downside episodes—a strategy mustrisk also having a high negative correlation when markets go higher. In a worldwhere stocks usually go higher, strategiesthat seek to go “short” or directly hedgeequities seem doomed to fail. This cost isespecially high for strategies that employleverage to “make the most” of their shortwindows of opportunity.
Before the bear shows upAs a result of these challenges, we don’t usually recommend direct hedges as a part ofour strategic or tactical asset allocation. Aswe will note below, it’s important to prioritize cost-effective protection before movingon to less-reliable or costlier hedging strategies. Here are some “damage mitigation”strategies, in declining order of efficiency:1. Think structurallyMake sure that your portfolio is taking theright amount of risk to meet your shortand long-term objectives; if those objectives appear in conflict, the Liquidity. Longevity. Legacy.* (3L) strategy can help youto make sure that your portfolio is able tomeet both sets of goals.2. Plan strategicallyThe most direct way to manage equity riskis to trim some stocks from the portfolio infavor of a higher allocation to core bonds(government and municipal bonds).3. Consider hedgesThere are many strategies that could mitigate the portfolio’s downside exposureif used to replace a part of the equityallocation. In addition to the candidatessurveyed in Exchange-traded funds: Managing equity downside, investors can alsoconsider a systematic allocation strategy,hedge funds, or structured notes that accept limited upside in return for explicitdownside protection.4. Manage liabilities prudentlyIf used carefully, debt can be hugely beneficial to improving bear market returns. Having reliable access to credit during a bearmarket—when interest costs are record-lowand investment opportunities are the mostattractive—can help investors avoid sellingat bear market prices and vastly amplify return potential during the first stages of a bullmarket recovery. On the other hand, whendebt is used imprudently, it can be ruinous.*Timeframes may vary. Strategies are subject to individual client goals, objectives and suitability.This approach is not a promise or guarantee that wealth, or any financial results, can or will be achieved.Bear market guidebook9
Before the bear shows up1. Think structurallyThe 3L framework starts with building a Liquidity strategy, which is designed to provide needed cash flow over the next 2-5years. The reason we structure a Liquiditystrategy for that time period is we want tomake sure you don’t have to liquidate riskassets, like equities, during a downturn.Next, we structure a Longevity strategy.The Longevity strategy is designed andsized to include all of the assets and resources you need to utilize for the remainder of your lifetime, which provides a clearpicture of what future spending objectiveswill likely cost. It is also managed appropriately for that task—a well-diversifiedportfolio but with an eye to inflation whilemanaging downside risk. Longevity assetsinclude retirement assets, growth portfolios, long-term care policies, primary residence, and similar assets. Over time, theseassets can be transitioned to replenish theLiquidity strategy.If you’re working, your Liquidity strategymight simply be an emergency fund thatcan be accessed in the event of a period ofunemployment. Retirees’ Liquidity assetscould include pensions (public and private),cash, and a 3-year bond ladder that, insum, match the retiree’s planned expenditures. Borrowing facilities are another component for meeting cash flow needs, butthese need to be managed carefully (see4. Manage liabilities prudently, page 14).The Legacy strategy includes assets thatare in excess of what you need to meetyour own lifetime objectives. It clarifies howmuch a family can do to improve the livesof others—either now or in the future. Investment portfolios in the Legacy strategyare typically invested fairly aggressively sincethe time horizon associated with the portfolio can usually be measured in decades andmight also include collectibles, charitablefunds, or other homes and real estate.Investors can use our Liquidity. Longevity. Legacy.* framework to develop theiroverall investment strategy based on theirpersonal goals and objectives. Doing soensures you have the right amount of investment risk – not too much and not toolittle – for your current situation.Lookout stopOur Liquidity. Longevity. Legacy* frameworkhelps investors structure an investmentstrategy based on their goals and objectivesthroughout their lifetime. For moreinformation, read our Liquidity. Longevity.Legacy.: A purpose-driven approach to wealthmanagement report.*Timeframes may vary. Strategies are subject to individual client goals, objectives and suitability.This approach is not a promise or guarantee that wealth, or any financial results, can or will be achieved.10Bear market guidebook
Before the bear shows upFigure 5A roadmap to the 3L framework LiquidityLongevityLegacyResources to maintain your lifestyleResources to improve your lifestyleResources to improve the lives of othersEmergency fundLiquidity strategy financial assetsSocial Security incomePension incomeLine of creditFunds Primary residence - MortgageTaxable accountsRetirement plans/accountsSocial SecurityPensionHealthcare, MedicareLong-term carePhilanthropy Donor Advised Fund (DAF) Strategic givingFederal estate tax Estate taxYour expensesSource: UBSFamily Life insurance Vacation home Grandchildren’s education savingsYour attorney, accountant, and other trusted professionals Healthcare proxy Estate documents Durable power of attorney Gift tax return2. Plan strategicallyThe most important action an investor cantake is to calibrate his or her overall assetallocation positioning to ensure the portfolio continues to align with the family’sgoals and objectives. It’s important to ensure that large changes in the portfolio’sallocation are done rarely and proactively.By contrast, we don’t recommend jumping into or out of the market based onshort-term forecasts (accurate crystal ballsremain hard to come by), and emotionstend to trump reason once markets become volatile.We believe it is particularly important tohold well-diversified investment portfoliosin late-cycle. Although somewhat-concentrated portfolios can work very wellduring bull markets (e.g. equity-heavyUS-centric portfolios during the currentexpansion), less-diversified portfolios tendto exhibit larger drawdowns and longerrecovery times.Bear market guidebook11
Before the bear shows up3. Consider hedgesThere are some positions investors can addto their portfolio during late cycle that canbe seen as mainly hedging in nature. Ingeneral, we prefer hedging positions thatdon’t “cost” the investor too much, either explicitly or implicitly, but will providemeaningful downside protection during abear market. These positions include: (1)long-duration bonds, (2) regime-shiftingstrategies that can cut equity positioningsubstantially, and (3) certain structuredproducts that cap downside exposure.Figure 6Long-duration bonds can help cushion againstequity sell-offs6-month total returns for 20 year Treasuries, 20-30 year STRIPS, during periodswhere global stocks fell, in %Treasury returns60In addition to considering longer-durationTreasuries, investors can also consider zero-coupon bonds or STRIPS (“SeparateTrading of Registered Interest and Principal of Securities”), which pay no interestto the holder and offer a higher sensitivityto interest rate moves (e.g. duration risk)than interest-bearing securities. These assets exhibit what is known as positive convexity, which means that as interest ratesfall they become even more sensitive tointerest rate declines.50As shown in Fig. 6, long-duration Treasuries’response to recession-risk concerns is morepotent, making them an effective “hedge”that may detract from gains during particularly strong market environments butshould on average provide a positive returneven if a recession doesn’t occur.403020100–10–50–40–30–20MSCI ACWI returns20–30 Year STRIPS Index20 year TreasuriesSource: Bloomberg, UBS, as of 4 January 201912Long-duration bondsInterest rates typically fall during bear markets, because during recessions the FederalReserve lowers interest rates and inflationpressures abate. As a result, fixed incomeassets typically perform well, enjoying a“flight to safety” rally. This return boost isgreater for assets with higher duration.Bear market guidebook–100
Before the bear shows upRegime-shifting strategiesThese are market-timing strategies thataim to add and reduce risk dynamicallyin order to manage risk and opportunitythrough market cycles. One example isthe Systematic Allocation Portfolio strategy (SAP), a regime-shifting model thatwas developed by the UBS Americas AssetAllocation Committee (available throughUBS Asset Management). The SAP strategyuses a quantitative model to shift betweenthree levels of equity exposure: high, neutral, and low. Ultimately the goal of SAPis to significantly reduce equity exposureduring sustained market drawdowns whilemaintaining high levels of equity exposureduring bullish periods.A regime shifting model like SAP can beuseful, in particular, for investors that willbe taking withdrawals from their portfolios and therefore have to worry about sequence risk. For those investors, potentially limiting drawdowns can help to improvelong-term outcomes.Structured productsThese are investment vehicles, sometimescalled structured notes, that use derivativesto adjust the risk/reward of an underlyingindex over a certain time period. They canbe useful for fine-tuning risk and returncharacteristics for an asset class, and thusshould be considered an important optionin an investor’s “bear market tool belt.”For example, an investor that wants to addexposure to emerging market stocks, but isconcerned about downside risk, may feelmore comfortable using a structured note,accepting illiquidity and sacrificing someof the asset class’s potential upside in exchange for some downside protection. Forexample, a 5-year structured note tied tothe MSCI Emerging Markets Index mightgive an investor 80% of the upside of theindex, but protect the investor against thefirst 10% of the index’s loss as long as thenote is held to maturity.Bottom lineAs a general rule of thumb, the more “perfect” a hedge is, the more costly it becomes.If you find something that seems to be anexception to this guideline, tread carefully—it may be too good to be true. When itcomes to meeting long-term goals, missingout on equity downside is probably less important than it seems, so always bear this inmind when deciding whether the opportunity cost of direct hedges is worth the valueof mitigating downside risk.Lookout stopWhen used prudently, borrowing can provide a“Plan B” to avoid liquidating risk assets at ‘bearmarket prices’. Even so, take care; too muchleverage can increase the risk of forced selling.Be sure to review your borrowing capacity (e.g.securities-backed lending and home equitylines of credit) with your UBS financial advisor.Bear market guidebook13
Before the bear shows up4. Manage liabilities prudentlyDebt can be segmented into two general categories: strategic debt and tacticaldebt. Investors should evaluate their usageof both during late-cycle.Strategic debt is generally long-term, usedto acquire a significant balance sheet position, and helpful for maintaining diversification and flexibility on a balance sheet.Mortgages to purchase real estate andstudent loans to acquire human capital aretwo examples. To the extent that investors have variable rate strategic debt, wesuggest determining whether or not theremight be an opportunity to refinance atthe present time based on interest ratesexpectations over the next few years.Short term rates have increased, but longer term rates have not followed suit. Thatrelative shift means that borrowing costsfor longer-term debt are not substantiallydifferent than short-term debt.14Bear market guidebookWe define tactical debt as debt that’s usedopportunistically on a short term basis toimprove outcomes. For example, in lieu ofliquidating portfolio positions and realizing taxable gains, a family might borrowagainst their investment portfolio to payfor a large expense. We recommend thatall families have borrowing capacity available in order to easily execute on thosetypes of opportunities.One note of caution around debt. Borrowing costs have increased commensuratelywith interest rates. Over the last decade,some investors have been taking advantageof low borrowing costs to effectively leverage their portfolios with the expectation ofearning a “spread” relative to borrowingcosts. As the market cycle has matured,and rates have normalized, this spread hasnarrowed. A bear market can quickly turnleverage from a ‘carry trade’ to a ‘margincall’. Investors should have a plan to paydown debt when markets are healthy; this,along with consolidating assets to increaseavailability and improve borrowing terms,can help make sure that borrowing capacity is available during bear markets.
Part 3 (open in case of emergency)What to do during a bear marketThere are a handful of tactics that investors can employ during a bear market.Don’t panicRemember that bear markets are painfulbut temporary. Sticking to your plan is key,so resist the urge to change the risk profileof your portfolio or make sizable shifts outof stocks or into cash.Portfolio managementInvestors should use sell-offs as opportunities to harvest capital losses—a strategythat over time we estimate can add about0.5% to after-tax annual portfolio returns.And rebalancing the portfolio can also enhance upside by ensuring that your portfolio doesn’t drift too far from your targetallocation. These fall into the category of“high-probability” alpha generation, because they’ll probably help improve after-tax returns regardless of how quicklymarkets recover.Play for timeInvestors should look for ways to increasetheir savings rate or cut back on spending.This is also a time to consider tapping borrowing facilities as a bridge to avoid locking in losses, but don’t take on enoughleverage to risk a ‘margin call’ if marketsdon’t quickly recover.Tactical opportunitiesWhile every bear market is different thanthe last, there is one constant: there arealways market dislocations that can provide opportunities to enhance returns.Generally, we recommend “leaning in” torisk assets when market prices are out ofstep with fundamentals. For investors thatenter a bear market well-prepared (having isolated their cash-flow needs frommarket risk), it may be appropriate to unwind portfolio hedges and increase portfolio risk temporarily to take advantage ofhigher return potential.Bear market guidebook15
AppendixPublication detailsPublisherUBS Financial Services Inc.CIO Americas, Wealth Management1285 Avenue of the Americas, 20th FloorNew York, NY 10019This report was originally published on30 January 2019.Editor in chiefMichael CrookPrimary authorsMichael CrookJustin WaringProject managementJohn ColluraPaul LeemingMatt SiegelReport designCheryl SeligmanGraphics supportCognizant Group – Basavaraj Gudihal,Srinivas Addugula, Pavan Mekalaand Virender Negi16Bear market guidebook
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Source: Morningstar Direct, R: PerformanceAnalytics, UBS, as of 4 January 2019 Figure 1 Bull market Bull market correction Bear market drawdown Bear market recovery US large-cap stocks, monthly returns since 1945, logarithmic scale Stocks have spent about
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