Net Zero By 2050

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Net Zeroby 2050A Roadmap for theGlobal EnergySector

Net Zeroby 2050A Roadmap for theGlobal Energy SectorNet Zero by 2050 Interactiveiea.li/nzeroadmapNet Zero by 2050 Dataiea.li/nzedata

INTERNATIONAL ENERGYAGENCYThe IEA examines thefull spectrumof energy issuesincluding oil, gas andcoal supply anddemand, renewableenergy technologies,electricity markets,energy efficiency,access to energy,demand sidemanagement andmuch more. Throughits work, the IEAadvocates policiesthat will enhance thereliability, affordabilityand sustainability ofenergy in its30 membercountries,8 associationcountries andbeyond.Please note that thispublication is subject tospecific restrictions that limitits use and distribution. Theterms and conditions areavailable online atwww.iea.org/t&c/This publication and anymap included herein arewithout prejudice to thestatus of or sovereignty overany territory, to thedelimitation of internationalfrontiers and boundaries andto the name of any territory,city or area.Source: IEA. All rightsreserved.International Energy AgencyWebsite: www.iea.orgRevised version,July 2021 (3rd revision)Information noticefound at: www.iea.org/correctionsIEA membercountries:IEA Czech andsNew ZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovak RepublicSpainSwedenSwitzerlandTurkeyUnited KingdomUnited th AfricaThailandThe EuropeanCommission alsoparticipates in thework of the IEA

ForewordWe are approaching a decisive moment for international efforts to tackle the climate crisis –a great challenge of our times. The number of countries that have pledged to reach net‐zeroemissions by mid‐century or soon after continues to grow, but so do global greenhouse gasemissions. This gap between rhetoric and action needs to close if we are to have a fightingchance of reaching net zero by 2050 and limiting the rise in global temperatures to 1.5 C.Doing so requires nothing short of a total transformation of the energy systems that underpinour economies. We are in a critical year at the start of a critical decade for these efforts. The26th Conference of the Parties (COP26) of the United Nations Framework Convention onClimate Change in November is the focal point for strengthening global ambitions and actionon climate by building on the foundations of the 2015 Paris Agreement. The InternationalEnergy Agency (IEA) has been working hard to support the UK government’s COP26Presidency to help make it the success the world needs. I was delighted to co‐host the IEA‐COP26 Net Zero Summit with COP26 President Alok Sharma in March, where top energy andclimate leaders from more than 40 countries highlighted the global momentum behind cleanenergy transitions.The discussions at that event fed into this special report, notably through the Seven KeyPrinciples for Implementing Net Zero that the IEA presented at the Summit, which have beenbacked by 22 of our member governments to date. This report maps out how the globalenergy sector can reach net zero by 2050. I believe the report – Net Zero by 2050: A roadmapfor the global energy system – is one of the most important and challenging undertakings inthe IEA’s history. The Roadmap is the culmination of the IEA’s pioneering work on energydata modelling, combining for the first time the complex models of our two flagship series,the World Energy Outlook and Energy Technology Perspectives. It will guide the IEA’s workand will be an integral part of both those series going forward.Despite the current gap between rhetoric and reality on emissions, our Roadmap shows thatthere are still pathways to reach net zero by 2050. The one on which we focus is – in ouranalysis – the most technically feasible, cost‐effective and socially acceptable. Even so, thatpathway remains narrow and extremely challenging, requiring all stakeholders –governments, businesses, investors and citizens – to take action this year and every yearafter so that the goal does not slip out of reach.Since the IEA’s founding in 1974, one of its core missions has been to promote secure andaffordable energy supplies to foster economic growth. This has remained a key concern ofour Roadmap, drawing on special analysis carried out with the International Monetary Fundand the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. It shows that the enormousForeword3IEA. All rights reserved.This report sets out clear milestones – more than 400 in total, spanning all sectors andtechnologies – for what needs to happen, and when, to transform the global economy fromone dominated by fossil fuels into one powered predominantly by renewable energy likesolar and wind. Our pathway requires vast amounts of investment, innovation, skilful policydesign and implementation, technology deployment, infrastructure building, internationalco‐operation and efforts across many other areas.

challenge of transforming our energy systems is also a huge opportunity for our economies,with the potential to create millions of new jobs and boost economic growth.Another guiding principle of the Roadmap is that clean energy transitions must be fair andinclusive, leaving nobody behind. We have to ensure that developing economies receive thefinancing and technological know‐how they need to continue building their energy systemsto meet the needs of their expanding populations and economies in a sustainable way. It isa moral imperative to bring electricity to the hundreds of millions of people who currentlyare deprived of access to it, the majority in of them in Africa.The transition to net zero is for and about people. It is paramount to remain aware that notevery worker in the fossil fuel industry can ease into a clean energy job, so governmentsneed to promote training and devote resources to facilitating new opportunities. Citizensmust be active participants in the entire process, making them feel part of the transition andnot simply subject to it. These themes are among those being explored by the GlobalCommission on People‐Centred Clean Energy Transitions, which I convened at the start of2021 to examine how to enable citizens to benefit from the opportunities and navigatethe disruptions of the shift to a clean energy economy. Headed by Prime MinisterMette Frederiksen of Denmark and composed of government leaders, ministers andprominent thinkers, the Global Commission will make public its key recommendations aheadof COP26 in November.The pathway laid out in our Roadmap is global in scope, but each country will need to designits own strategy, taking into account its specific circumstances. There is no one‐size‐fits‐allapproach to clean energy transitions. Plans need to reflect countries’ differing stages ofeconomic development: in our pathway, advanced economies reach net zero beforedeveloping economies do. As the world’s leading energy authority, the IEA stands ready toprovide governments with support and advice as they design and implement their ownroadmaps, and to encourage the international co‐operation across sectors that is so essentialto reaching net zero by 2050.This landmark report would not have been possible without the extraordinary dedication ofthe IEA colleagues who have worked so tirelessly and rigorously on it. I would like to thankthe entire team under the outstanding leadership of my colleagues Laura Cozzi andTimur Gül.The world has a huge challenge ahead of it to move net zero by 2050 from a narrowpossibility to a practical reality. Global carbon dioxide emissions are already reboundingsharply as economies recover from last year’s pandemic‐induced shock. It is past time forgovernments to act, and act decisively to accelerate the clean energy transformation.As this report shows, we at the IEA are fully committed to leading those efforts.Dr Fatih BirolExecutive DirectorInternational Energy Agency4International Energy Agency Special Report

AcknowledgementsThis study, a cross‐agency effort, was prepared by the World Energy Outlook team and theEnergy Technology Perspectives team. The study was designed and directed by Laura Cozzi,Chief Energy Modeller and Head of Division for Energy Demand Outlook, and Timur Gül,Head of Division for Energy Technology Policy.The lead authors and co‐ordinators were: Stéphanie Bouckaert, Araceli Fernandez Pales,Christophe McGlade, Uwe Remme and Brent Wanner. Laszlo Varro, Chief Economist,Davide D’Ambrosio and Thomas Spencer were also part of the core team.The other main authors were: Thibaut Abergel (buildings), Yasmine Arsalane (economicoutlook, electricity), Praveen Bains (biofuels), Jose Miguel Bermudez Menendez (hydrogen),Elizabeth Connelly (transport), Daniel Crow (behaviour), Amrita Dasgupta (innovation),Chiara Delmastro (buildings), Timothy Goodson (buildings, bioenergy), Alexandre Gouy(industry), Paul Hugues (industry), Lilly Lee (transport), Peter Levi (industry),Hana Mandova (industry), Ariane Millot (buildings), Paweł Olejarnik (fossil fuel supply),Leonardo Paoli (innovation, transport), Faidon Papadimoulis (data management),Sebastian Papapanagiotou (electricitynetworks), Francesco Pavan(hydrogen),Apostolos Petropoulos (transport), Ryszard Pośpiech (data management), Leonie Staas(behaviour, industry), Jacopo Tattini (transport), Jacob Teter (transport), Gianluca Tonolo(energy access), Tiffany Vass (industry) and Daniel Wetzel (jobs).Other contributors were: Lucila Arboleya Sarazola, Simon Bennett, Cyril Cassisa, ArthurContejean, Musa Erdogan, Enrique Gutierrez Tavarez, Taku Hasegawa, Shai Hassid, ZoeHungerford, Tae‐Yoon Kim, Vanessa Koh, Luca Lo Re, Christopher Lowans, RaimundMalischek, Mariachiara Polisena and Per Anders Widell.Caroline Abettan, Teresa Coon, Marina Dos Santos, Marie Fournier‐S’niehotta, Reka Koczkaand Diana Louis provided essential support.Edmund Hosker carried editorial responsibility and Debra Justus was the copy‐editor.Valuable comments and feedback were provided by other senior management andnumerous other colleagues within the International Energy Agency. In particularKeisuke Sadamori, Mechthild Wörsdörfer, Amos Bromhead, Dan Dorner, Nick Johnstone,Pascal Laffont, Toril Bosoni, Peter Fraser, Paolo Frankl, Tim Gould, Tom Howes,Brian Motherway, Aad van Bohemen, César Alejandro Hernández, Samantha McCulloch,Sara Moarif,Heymi Bahar,Adam Baylin‐Stern,Niels Berghout,Sara Budinis,Jean‐Baptiste Dubreuil, Carlos Fernández Alvarez, Ilkka Hannula , Jeremy Moorhouse andStefan Lorenczik.Acknowledgements5IEA. All rights reserved.The International Monetary Fund (IMF), in particular Benjamin Hunt, Florence Jaumotte,Jared Thomas Bebee and Susanna Mursula, partnered with the IEA to provide themacroeconomic analysis. The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), inparticular Peter Rafaj, Gregor Kiesewetter, Wolfgang Schöpp, Chris Heyes, Zbigniew Klimont,Pallav Purohit, Laura Warnecke, Binh Nguyen, Nicklas Forsell, Stefan Frank, Petr Havlik andMykola Gusti, partnered with the IEA to provide analysis and related indicators on airpollution and greenhouse gas emissions from land use.

Valuable input to the analysis was provided by: Trevor Morgan (independent consultant) andDavid Wilkinson (independent consultant).Thanks go to the IEA Communications and Digital Office (CDO), particularly to Jad Mouawad,Head of CDO, and to Astrid Dumond, Jon Custer, Tanya Dyhin, Merve Erdil, Grace Gordon,Christopher Gully, Jethro Mullen, Julie Puech, Rob Stone, Gregory Viscusi, Therese Walsh andWonjik Yang for their help in producing and promoting the report and website materials.Finally, thanks to Ivo Letra of the IEA Information Systems Unit for his essential support inthe production process, and to the IEA’s Office of Legal Counsel, Office of Management andAdministration, and Energy Data Centre for the assistance each provided throughout thepreparation of this report.Peer reviewersMany senior government officials and international experts provided input and reviewedpreliminary drafts of the report. Their comments and suggestions were of great value. Theyinclude:Aimee Aguilar JaberKeigo AkimotoDoug ArentDaniel BalogGeorg BäumlHarmeet BawaPete BettsSama Bilbao y LeonDiane CameronRebecca CollyerRussell ConklinFrançois DassaJelte de JongCarl de MaréGuillaume De SmedtAgustin DelgadoJohanna FiksdahlAlan FinkelNiklas ForsellJames FosterHiroyuki FukuiRosanna FuscoLi Gao6Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development (OECD)Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth, JapanNational Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), United StatesPermanent Delegation of Hungary to the OECDVolkswagenHitachi ABB Power GridsGrantham Research Institute on Climate Change and theEnvironment, United KingdomWorld Nuclear AssociationNuclear Energy AgencyEuropean Climate FoundationUS Department of EnergyEDFMinistry of Economic Affairs and Climate Policy, The NetherlandsArcelorMittalAir LiquideIberdrolaPermanent Delegation of Norway to the OECDSpecial Advisor to the Australian Government on Low EmissionsTechnologyInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)UK Department for Business, Energy and Industrial StrategyToyotaEniMinistry of Ecology and Environment of the People’s Republic ofChinaInternational Energy Agency Special Report

François GautierOliver GedenDolf GielenFrancesca GostinelliJae H. JungMichael HackethalPeter WoodSelwin HartDavid HawkingsJacob HerbersTakashi HongoChristina HoodMichael KellySir David KingKen KoyamaFabien KreuzerJoyce LeeChen LinhaoTodd LitmanClaude LoreaRitu MathurVincent MinierSteve NadelStefan NowakBrian Ó GallachóirHenri PaillèreYongduk PakAlessandra PastorelliJonathan PershingGlen PetersStephanie PfeiferCédric PhilibertLynn PriceAndrew PurvisJulia ReinaudYamina SahebIgnacio SantelicesAndreas SchäferVivian ScottAcknowledgementsPermanent Delegation of France to the OECDGerman Institute for International and Security AffairsInternational Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA)EnelMinistry of Foreign Affairs, Republic of KoreaMinistry for Economic Affairs and Industry, GermanyShellUnited NationsNatural Resources Defense CouncilUS Department of EnergyMitsui & Co. Global Strategic Studies Institute, JapanCompass Climate, New ZealandWorld LPG AssociationCambridge UniversityThe Institute of Energy Economics, JapanDG Energy, European CommissionGlobal Wind Energy Council (GWEC)Ministry of Science and Technology of the People’s Republic ofChinaVictoria Transport Policy Institute, CanadaGlobal Cement and Concrete AssociationThe Energy and Resources Institute (TERI)Schneider ElectricAmerican Council for an Energy‐Efficient EconomyTechnology Collaboration Programme on Photovoltaic PowerSystems (PVPS TCP)MaREI, SFI Research Centre for Energy, Climate and Marine,University College CorkInternational Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)Korea Energy Economics Institute (KEEI)Permanent Delegation of Italy to the OECDUS State DepartmentCentre for International Climate and Environmental Research(CICERO)Institutional Investors Group on Climate Change (IIGCC)Independent consultantLawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, United StatesWorld SteelBreakthrough EnergyOpenEXPSustainable Energy Agency, ChileUniversity College LondonThe University of Edinburgh7

Simon SharpeAdnan Shihab EldinToshiyuki ShiraiAdam SieminskiStephan SingerVarun SivaramJim SkeaJeff StehmJonathan SternWim ThomasDavid TurkFritjof UnanderRob van der MeerNoé van HulstTom van IerlandDavid VictorAmanda WilsonHarald WinklerMarkus WolfMarkus WråkeWilliam ZimmernCabinet Office, United KingdomFormerly Kuwait Foundation for the Advancement of SciencesMinistry of Economy, Trade and Industry, JapanKAPSARCClimate Action NetworkUS State DepartmentImperial College LondonTask Force on Climate‐Related Financial DisclosuresOxford Institute for Energy StudiesIndependent consultantUS Department of EnergyResearch Council of NorwayThe European Cement Association (CEMBUREAU)International Partnership for Hydrogen and Fuel Cells in theEconomyDG for Climate Action, European CommissionUniversity of California, San DiegoNatural Resources CanadaUniversity of Cape TownElectric Power Research Institute (EPRI), United StatesSwedish Energy Research CentreBPThe individuals and organisations that contributed to this study are not responsible for anyopinions or judgments it contains. All errors and omissions are solely the responsibility of theIEA.This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of orsovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundariesand to the name of any territory, city or area.Comments and questions are welcome and should be addressed to:Laura Cozzi and Timur GülDirectorate of Sustainability, Technology and OutlooksInternational Energy Agency9, rue de la Fédération75739 Paris Cedex 15FranceE‐mail: IEANZE2050@iea.orgWeb: www.iea.org8International Energy Agency Special Report

Table of ContentsForeword. 3Acknowledgements . 5Executive summary . 131Announced net zero pledges and the energy sector291.1 Introduction. 301.2 Emissions reduction targets and net zero pledges . 311.2.1 Nationally Determined Contributions . 311.2.2 Net‐zero emissions pledges . 321.3 Outlook for emissions and energy in the STEPS . 361.3.1 CO2 emissions . 361.3.2 Total energy supply, total final consumption and electricitygeneration . 371.3.3 Emissions from existing assets . 391.4 Announced Pledges Case. 401.4.1 CO2 emissions . 411.4.2 Total energy supply . 431.4.3 Total final consumption . 441.4.4 Electricity generation . 452A global pathway to net‐zero CO₂ emissions in 2050472.1 Introduction. 482.2 Scenario design. 482.2.1 Population and GDP. 502.2.2 Energy and CO2 prices. 512.3 CO2 emissions . 532.4 Total energy supply and total final consumption . 562.4.1 Total energy supply . 562.4.2 Total final consumption . 602.5 Key pillars of decarbonisation . 642.5.1 Energy efficiency. 652.5.3 Electrification . 70Table of Contents9IEA. All rights reserved.2.5.2 Behavioural change . 67

2.5.4 Renewables . 732.5.5 Hydrogen and hydrogen‐based fuels. 752.5.6 Bioenergy . 772.5.7 Carbon capture, utilisation and storage . 792.6 Investment . 812.7 Key uncertainties . 832.7.1 Behavioural change . 842.7.2 Bioenergy and land‐use change. 902.7.3 CCUS applied to emissions from fossil fuels . 943Sectoral pathways to net‐zero emissions by 2050993.1 Introduction. 1003.2 Fossil fuel supply . 1003.2.1 Energy trends in the Net‐Zero Emissions Scenario . 1003.2.2 Investment in oil and gas . 1033.2.3 Emissions from fossil fuel production. 1043.3 Low‐emissions fuel supply . 1053.3.1 Energy trends in the Net‐Zero Emissions Scenario . 1053.3.2 Biofuels . 1063.3.3 Hydrogen and hydrogen‐based fuels. 1083.3.4 Key milestones and decision points. 1113.4 Electricity sector . 1133.4.1 Energy and emissions trends in the Net‐Zero Emissions Scenario . 1133.4.2 Key milestones and decision points. 1173.5 Industry . 1213.5.1 Energy and emission trends in the Net‐Zero Emissions Scenario . 1213.5.2 Key milestones and decision points. 1293.6 Transport . 1313.6.1 Energy and emission trends in the Net‐Zero Emissions Scenario . 1313.6.2 Key milestones and decision points. 1383.7 Buildings . 1413.7.1 Energy and emission trends in the Net‐Zero Emissions Scenario . 1413.7.2 Key milestones and decision points. 14710International Energy Agency Special Report

4Wider implications of achieving net‐zero emissions1514.1 Introduction. 1524.2 Economy . 1534.2.1 Investment and financing . 1534.2.2 Economic activity . 1554.2.3 Employment . 1574.3 Energy industry. 1604.3.1 Oil and gas . 1604.3.2 Coal . 1624.3.3 Electricity . 1634.3.4 Energy‐consuming industries . 1654.4 Citizens . 1674.4.1 Energy‐related Sustainable Development Goals . 1674.4.2 Affordability . 1704.4.3 Behavioural changes . 1734.5 Governments . 1754.5.1 Energy security . 1754.5.2 Infrastructure. 1804.5.3 Tax revenues from retail energy sales . 1834.5.4 Innovation. 1844.5.5 International co‐operation . 187Annexes191Annex A. Tables for scenario projections . 193Annex B. Technology costs . 201Annex C. Definitions . 203Table of Contents11IEA. All rights reserved.Annex D. References . 217

Summary for policy makersThe energy sector is the source of around three‐quarters of greenhouse gas emissionstoday and holds the key to averting the worst effects of climate change, perhaps thegreatest challenge humankind has faced. Reducing global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions tonet zero by 2050 is consistent with efforts to limit the long‐term increase in average globaltemperatures to 1.5 C. This calls for nothing less than a complete transformation of how weproduce, transport and consume energy. The growing political consensus on reaching netzero is cause for considerable optimism about the progress the world can make, but thechanges required to reach net‐zero emissions globally by 2050 are poorly understood. A hugeamount of work is needed to turn today’s impressive ambitions into reality, especially giventhe range of different situations among countries and their differing capacities to make thenecessary changes. This special IEA report sets out a pathway for achieving this goal, resultingin a clean and resilient energy system that would bring major benefits for human prosperityand well‐being.In this Summary for Policy Makers, we outline the essential conditions for the global energysector to reach net‐zero CO2 emissions by 2050. The pathway described in depth in thisreport achieves this objective with no offsets from outside the energy sector, and with lowreliance on negative emissions technologies. It is designed to maximise technical feasibility,cost‐effectiveness and social acceptance while ensuring continued economic growth andsecure energy supplies. We highlight the priority actions that are needed today to ensure theopportunity of net zero by 2050 – narrow but still achievable – is not lost. The report providesa global view, but countries do not start in the same place or finish at the same time:advanced economies have to reach net zero before emerging markets and developingeconomies, and assist others in getting there. We also recognise that the route mapped outhere is a path, not necessarily the path, and so we examine some key uncertainties, notablyconcerning the roles played by bioenergy, carbon capture and behavioural changes. Gettingto net zero will involve countless decisions by people across the world, but our primary aimis to inform the decisions made by policy makers, who have the greatest scope to move theworld closer to its climate goals.Summary for policy makers13IEA. All rights reserved.The global pathway to net‐zero emissions by 2050 detailed in this report requires allgovernments to significantly strengthen and then successfully implement their energy andclimate policies. Commitments made to date fall far short of what is required by thatpathway. The number of countries that have pledged to achieve net‐zero emissions hasgrown rapidly over the last year and now covers around 70% of global emissions of CO2. Thisis a huge step forward. However, most pledges are not yet underpinned by near‐term policiesand measures. Moreover, even if successfully fulfilled, the pledges to date would still leavearound 22 billion tonnes of CO2 emissions worldwide in 2050. The continuation of that trendwould be consistent with a temperature rise in 2100 of around 2.1 C. Global emissions fellin 2020 because of the Covid‐19 crisis but are already rebounding strongly as economiesrecover. Further delay in acting to reverse that trend will put net zero by 2050 out of reach.

Net zero by 2050 hinges on an unprecedented clean technology push to 2030The path to net‐zero emissions is narrow: staying on it requires immediate and massivedeployment of all available clean and efficient energy technologies. In the net‐zeroemissions pathway presented in this report, the world economy in 2030 is some 40% largerthan today but uses 7% less energy. A major worldwide pu

Dr Fatih Birol Executive Director . Energy Outlook team and the Energy Technology Perspectives team. The study was designed and directed by Laura Cozzi, Chief Energy Modeller and Head of Division for Energy Demand Outlook, and Timur Gül, .

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