Top Ten Emerging Technologies To Drive Mission Performance

Top Ten Emerging Technologies toDrive Mission PerformanceDr. David F. McQueeneyCTO, IBM FederalNDIA Net Centric Operations ConferenceNorfolk, VAMarch 6, 2006 2006 IBM Corporation

NDIA NCO Norfolk“Swivel Chair Integration”2

NDIA NCO Norfolk2003: Air Operations Center3

NDIA NCO NorfolkSo what’s changed?4

NDIA NCO NorfolkEnterprise-Class IT:“ as Simple as Possible but no Simpler*” Complex problems tend torequire complex solutions Tradeoff between depth offunction and simplicity of use Optimizing for best return:Acquisition Cost? Lifecyclecost? Performance? Flexibility? What’s the scope of “enterprise”anyway?* A. Einstein5

NDIA NCO NorfolkTop Ten Emerging Technologies Four Groups Base Technology Software, Infrastructure and SOA Information Management Web 2.0 The Internet as a Platform6

NDIA NCO NorfolkBase Technology: What does 1000 buy?1E uum tubeDiscrete transistorIntegrated circuitComputations / sec1E 91,000,000,0001E 61,000,0001E 31,0001E 0Yearafter Kurzweil, 1999 & Moravec, 19987

NDIA NCO Norfolk32-bit Processor TrendsMulti-core processors will emerge to offset slow down in frequency growth10 Frequency growth ratehistorically 35%(CAGR)10S Tox 11AGateStack200310-15% yr/yr5Frequency (GHz)- Prescott (90 nm):only 10-15% CAGRgrowth2002 Roadmap 35% yr/yr43Prescott(90 nm)Pentium 4(130 nm)3.4 GHz(Intel, 2/04)2Pentium 4(180 nm)Gate dielectricapproaching afundamental limit (a fewatomic layers)8120002001200220032004Initial Ship Date200520062007Sources: Competitive Analysis Technical Team (CATT), Intel

NDIA NCO NorfolkDelivering System Performance: Post-Scaling Parallelism1998 – 2003:Scaling Driven80% CAGRSystem Level60% CAGRChip LevelApplications,Middleware,OSCompiler, Bus &Memory Interfaces50% CAGRUni-processor9Semiconductors,Processor Core,Cache,Package,I/O,Cooling,Interconnect2004 ÆIntegration r ManagementSemiconductors,Multiple Cores,Embedded onnects,Switch Fabric,Cache, High-SpeedI/O, CompilerSemiconductors,Processor Core,Cache, Package, I/O,Cooling90% CAGRSystemlevelintegrationlevers65% CAGRChip-levelintegrationlevers20% CAGR

NDIA NCO NorfolkTop Ten Emerging TechnologiesThe Software, Infrastructure and SOA Group Application Optimized Systems Event-Driven Architecture10

NDIA NCO NorfolkModularity At All Levels is Enabling a New Era ofApplication-Optimized SystemsBusiness LevelBusiness processesSystem LevelProcessorblades/drawers/racksSubsystem LevelChip LevelMemory,I/O subsystem,Specialty bladesMulti-threads,Multi-cores, Specialtycores, Accelerators,Busses, I/OCCCCCCCCL2CacheCCL2CacheCA A A ACCCSoC design,Compilers, Libraries11System64 Racks, 64x32x32131,072 processorsChip2 processors5.6 TF/s512 GB20 KWatts1 m2 footprint180 GF/s16 GB11.2 GF/s1.0 GB5.6 GF/s, 4 MBOperating systems,Middleware,Management toolsSystem level design,ProtocolsStrategyTacticsExecution360 TF/s32 TB1.3M WattsMerchandising Store/ChannelOperationsChannel, Category Strategy andPlanningCustomerRelationshipPlanning andStrategiesProductPlanning,Development s hannelDesign ly andDemandEvent,PromotionStrategy andPlanningAssortment and Space PlanningManagement and ExecutionOrderManagementMode Card16 compute cards(16 compute, 0-2 IOcards)64 processorsCompute Card2 chips, 1x2x14 processorsA A A AL2CacheRack32 Node Cards2048 ustomerDirectoryVendor andProductPerformanceExecution andManagementItemManagementProductDirectorySupply Chain &DistributionSupplyChainStrategy andPlanningCorp.PlanningFinancialManagementand PlanningMarket cesResourcesInventory, Product Tracking andTracingLine of BusinessPlanningExternal MarketAssessmentOrganization andProcess DesignCorporateFinance AllianceManagementBusinessPerf. erationsManagementFinanceBusinessAdministration AdministrationOperationsBack OfficeFinancialAccountingand GLWeb Services, SOAEnterprise Service BusLegal andRegulatoryIndirectProcurementReal Estate,Facilities andEquipmentHRAdministrationDevelop andOperate ITSystems

NDIA NCO NorfolkThe Power of Modularity – “#1”12

NDIA NCO NorfolkThe Event-Driven WorldIPv6 MapRFID-enabled CheckoutVoIP, VoD, IMS, etc.Intelligent Oil FieldSurveillanceRFID-enabled Scanninganrmai .Ch N ed RO ictEN ind Fraud/Compliance13Location Based Service (Traffic)BillingSecurityFraud alertsRetrospectiveprocessing

NDIA NCO NorfolkSOA Programming Model for Event OrientationRouted EventsOrchestration ServiceEvent Stream ProcessingIntelligent RoutingSophisticated Process FlowAggregating and Correlating EventsOrder count 100EventEvent StreamEventEventSinkSinkEventManagerEvent EventSinkSinkEventsEventEventSourceSourceCombines with brokeredevent mechanisms Content-based routing Transformation Standards-based, e.g., XMLand Web Services14EventEventSinkSinkOrdercount 100No ESB Event EventEventEventEventSinkSinkCombines basic ESB services withlong running stateful processes(event choreography)Supports looping constructs, statemanagement, conditionalconstructs, forks threads, joins, etc.Publish event, wait for event, etc.IF (IBM Price) (IBM VWAP)THEN (Buy IBM) Event filtering rules Aggregation of events Event detection patterns Not all events pass through Event generation, event history

NDIA NCO NorfolkTop Ten Emerging TechnologiesThe Information Management Group Master Data Management Text Analytics15

NDIA NCO NorfolkWhat is Master Data Management? Decouples master information fromindividual applications Becomes a central, applicationindependent resource Simplifies ongoing integration tasksand new app development Ensure consistent master informationacross transactional and analyticalsystems Addresses key issues such as dataquality and consistency proactivelyrather than “after the fact” in the r DataManagementSystemExistingApplicationsHistorical ons

NDIA NCO NorfolkText Analytics: Reaching back into the information pipelineInformationInformation ebRoomsPersonalAlternativeTradeNewsCurrent decision nalTradeSites icationsNewGroups ntsTradeNewsPressRoomsGroupsReportsNewSitesChatNew tentsSitesRooms SitesRoomsNewsGroupsChatRoomsNewsGroupsAnticipate EventsInstantaneousSitesSitesTake Preemptive ActionTimelinessTimeliness ofof InformationInformationReactHistoricalBetween 80 and 90 percent of information on theInternet and corporate networks is unstructured.Goldman Sachs, March 200117

NDIA NCO NorfolkTop Ten Emerging TechnologiesThe Web 2.0 Group Tools: RSS, AJAX, PHP Standards: REST, XHTML Techniques: Wikis, Blogging, Mash-ups, Tagging18

NDIA NCO NorfolkThe Web 2.0 Landscape . A different way of thinkingTools: RSS,AJAX, PHP,RubyStandards: REST,XHTMLThe Webas“The Platform”Light-weightprogrammingmodels19Rich userexperiencesSmall piecesloosely joined, or“re-mixed”Software that getsbetter as morepeople use itServices, notpackagedsoftwareTechniques:Mash-up, wiki,tagging, tiveintelligence

NDIA NCO NorfolkArt of the Possible: Situational Applications Situational application development involves aggregating, customizing,or extending an existing collection of simple web services- Built to solve an immediate, specific business problem- Typically performed by non-traditional programmers (e.g., businessprofessionals, analysts, other IT staff, etc.)- Makes use of pre-existing software components or services such asspreadsheets, report generators or vertical business applications already inuse- Manipulates static and increasingly dynamic content – information-centric- Accelerated by a community-based development approachIntegration is pushed to the edges, just “good enough”for the task at hand 20

NDIA NCO NorfolkRapid Growth of Domain-Specific ServicesExamples of companies offering services on the web today, and growing DHL Web ServicesE-CommerceRepository forboutique servicesOnlineTrackingUSPS Web ToolsSForceFedEx TrackingSearch, MapsTerrafirmaPayPalNDFD XMLGoogle Maps API21

NDIA NCO NorfolkMash-upOne Mash-up definition from Wikipedia a musical genre which, in its purest form, consists of the combination (usually bydigital means) of the music from one song with the a cappella from another. Typically,the music and vocals belong to completely different genres. At their best, bastard popsongs strive for musical epiphanies that add up to considerably more than the sum oftheir parts.List ofstoresGoogle Mapweb serviceNOAA Weatherweb serviceSAP orderfulfillmentRSS feed of topselling items22Wiki commandsto composeapplication

NDIA NCO NorfolkSummary: Top Ten Emerging Technologies10)9)8)7)6)5)4)3)2)Low power operationMicro-scale parallelizationApplication-Optimized SystemsEvent-Driven ArchitectureMaster Data ManagementText AnalyticsWeb 2.0 Tools: RSS, AJAX, PHPWeb 2.0 Standards: REST, XHTMLWeb 2.0 Techniques: Wikis, Blogging, Mash-ups, Tagging#1: Putting it all Together Modeling23

NDIA NCO NorfolkMission/Business SemanticsEvolution Toward Business/Mission ModelingMission Strategy/CONOPSModelingMission Performance ModelingMission Process ModelingObject Oriented Analysis andDesignStructured Analysis & DesignFlowchartsTime24

NDIA NCO NorfolkExamples E-CollabCenter.com GCSS-AF National Weather Service25

IBM Business Consulting ServicesIBM’s E-CollabCenter.comSecure Real Time Awareness and Information Sharing for the WarfighterWorld-wide Instant Messagingwith DoD PersonnelShared Information throughWeb Conferences(with or without Audio/Video)26Real Time SharedSituational AwarenessShared Information throughPersistent Chat Rooms

IBM SoftwareSOA ReferencesIBMGroupU.S. Air Force: Free developers to spend more time creating value-addedbusiness solutions that can scale across entire organizationChallenge: Point-to-point interfaces between Air Force combatsupport systems was staggering & costly to maintainSOABusiness Driven Decision: Needed a well-designed open architecture to prevent its technology fromExecute Roadmapbecoming obsolete thus creating unstable, and fragmented systems System modernizations were hampered by the need to support or useRealize Businessproprietary mechanisms to exchange dataValueSet DirectionDelivering Business Value: Has gained huge scale efficiencies Has avoided significant software redevelopment costs Able to deliver new capabilities more quickly and cost-effectively than beforeThrough greater IT flexibility: Able to have single-sign-on access to more than 200 operational services andcapabilities27SOA, Composing Business Value, from IT Assets 2006 IBM Corporation

IBM SoftwareSOA ReferencesIBMGroupNational Weather Service: Successfully maintain the system onan ongoing basis as changes are requiredChallenge: Maintain full capabilities in the event of extremesystem failure or attackSOABusiness Driven Decision: Needed to modernize the current legacy systems, to allow expansion of capabilitiesExecute Roadmap to handle significant increases in both the volume & size of messages & transactionsRealize Business A significant contributing factor to the increased size of messages is theValueadvancement of graphics depicting radar and weather imagesSet DirectionDelivering Business Value: Throughput has more than doubled, providing over 40 percent more efficiencywith the new messaging backbone based on open standardsThrough greater IT Flexibility: Allows more than half a million messages worldwide on a daily basis28SOA, Composing Business Value, from IT Assets 2006 IBM Corporation

NDIA NCO NorfolkWhat Have We Learned: Levels of Integration1.Swivel Chair/Clip Board Integration-2.3.4.5.-1960’s – presentOne system, one screen, one “service”Caused by “silos” and generally strongly protected and entrenchedIntegration at the “glass”199X – presentFrom Browser based aggregationTo a sophisticated role based portalEAI – Enterprise Application Integration1990’s to presentWorkflow or BPM, current core standard is BPELApplication IntegrationEco-systems around an “application” (e.g. ERP)ETL (Extract, Transform, Load)Information Streaming (e.g. Ground Stations)Information FederationReach out for Information, aggregate “query”Search (structured and unstructured)So why is this important?29

NDIA NCO NorfolkSwivel Chair Integration: The End Result?30