Day 1 Slides FINAL - Wa
Welcome!
Workshop objectivesBy the end of the workshop,participants will be able to:1. Describe the process of H-integration and itsrelation to an adaptive management plan2. Convince others of the importance of coordinatedactions3. Identify and apply H-integration tools4. Describe scientific measures being developed toevaluate the combined recovery actions on VSPparameters5. Identify the watershed’s current H-integrationstatus6. Describe how progress will be tracked throughadaptive management and monitoring
Workshop Structure Built around the six steps to integration Includes case studies as examples Includes a worksheet to identify waysto tailor implementation of the steps Includes table group and large groupdiscussions Will ask for your honest feedback onthis approach to advance H-integration
Day One Agenda (Part 1 of 2)9:00Welcome, introductions, and opening remarksSession 1Context setting and group discussion: How do H-integrationand Adaptive Management and Monitoring relate?Overview of all H-integration stepsSession 2Step 1: Identify people across all H-sectors needed and how toinvolve them11:00—11:10Break11:10Continue Step 1Session 3Steps 2 and 3:#2: Gain common understanding of how system works#3: Describe and agree on how to meet goalsNoon working lunch
Day One Agenda (Part 2 of 2)Session 4Step 4 Examine, evaluate and select complementary suites ofactions (part 1)3:30Review contextDiscuss day 2 agenda4:00Close
Day Two Agenda (Part 1 of 2)9:00Q&A and reconnectSession 5Step 4: Examine, evaluate and select complementary suitesof actions (Part 2)10:30—10:40Break10:40Continue Step 4Noon lunchHaiku readings!
Day Two Agenda (Part 2 of 2)Session 6Step 5: document rationale and hypotheses, and describeimplementation stepsSession 7Step 6: Build & implement a verification, effectiveness &accountability systemSession 8Next steps ’06 to ‘07 & resources availableFeedback on overall H-I approach and processHaiku contest winner announced!3:30Closing Speaker4:00Close
Haiku contest rules Write a haiku referencing adaptivemanagement or the 6 steps to H-integration(if you’re the rhyming type, limericks are ok) Haikus are typically three line poemsfollowing a 5, 7, 5 syllable pattern Prepare a haiku to read during theWednesday lunch break Our celebrity judging panel (Patricia andChris) will decide a winner to be announcedbefore Wednesday’s closing remarks
Sample HaikuH – integrationAdaptively managingSalmon are happy
The First Focus of AdaptiveManagement: H-integration Resource managers need a common understandingof how their system works to develop a common set ofgoals and recovery actions (STAGE A) H-integration metrics examine cumulative effects ofall the Hs on VSP parameters (STAGE B) Establish a Verification and Accountability Systemthat transparently shows how each H-sector is workingto address recovery goals (STAGES C and D) An integrated AMM program will help decisionmakers clearly see the interaction and cumulativeeffects of actions among the H-sectors (Stage D)
Definition andOverview ofH-Integration Steps
VisionTo recover self-sustaining,harvestable salmon runs in amanner that contributes to theoverall health of Puget Sound andits watersheds and allows us toenjoy and use this preciousresource in concert with our region’seconomic vitality and prosperity.
Context Objective is NOT to create anotherplan H-Integration the first focus ofadaptive management andmonitoring (AAM) Iterative process We’re here to look at how toadvance H-Integration
H-Integration is a continuum
H-Integration“Concerted effort of all threeH-factors working together, notcanceling each other out andadjusting over time as populationconditions change.”Draft Puget Sound Salmon Recovery Plan
H-integrationcan be defined asa coordinated combination ofactions among all the H-sectors-harvest, hatchery and habitat--that together work to achieve thegoal of recovering self-sustaining,harvestable salmon runs.
An Integratedsalmon recovery strategyshould have: Consistency among H-sectorgoals and outcomes Hypotheses about limitingfactors and threats
An Integratedsalmon recovery strategyshould have: Strategies designed to be biologicallyefficient –– they can achieve VSP outcomes beforeirreversible harm is done to the population Complementary suites of actions amongthe H-sectors to recover salmonpopulations
An Integratedsalmon recovery strategyShould: describe the relative uncertainty ofthe suite of actions, and how theuncertainty will be reduced throughan adaptive management andmonitoring program.
Elements of anintegrated approachCoordinating: Actions in specific locations, Timing when actions occur (e.g.linked to salmon life cycle), Sequencing actions over time (i.e.the order in which they occur), and Choosing the magnitude of actions
There are six stepsto integration
Step OneIdentify the people that need toparticipate and how to involvethem.
Step TwoGain a common understanding ofhow the system works—habitatconditions and fish populations
Step ThreeAgree upon common goals and aset of short-term outcomes acrossthe H-sectors that describe whatwill be achieved related to thosegoals in measurable terms.
Step FourExamine, evaluate and select asuite of complementary actionsacross the H-s to achieve theoutcomes.
Step Five Document:– Rationale,– implementation steps (specificcomplementary actions in hatcheries,harvest, and habitat),– expected outcomes (including effectson VSP), and– Benchmarks.
Step SixBuild and implement a Verification,Effectiveness and Accountabilitysystem– Implement actions– Monitor results– Prepare annual performancereports– Adjust over time
“80% of success is showing up”
Step 1:Identify the people you needacross all H sectors, and involvethem
Chinook Get AroundMap from “Origin and Migration of Washington's Chinook and Coho salmon.” WDFW. 1968.
Western Washington Treaty TribesMap from Northwest Indian Fish Commission webpage: http://www.nwifc.wa.gov/tribes/index.asp#
Counties of Puget SoundMap from Shared Strategy webpage: p growth.pdf
Cities of Central Puget SoundMap from WSDOT Web page: ontMapSmall.pdf
Recognize RealityTrack record of effective H coordination slimSignificant effort already at getting involvementOne size does not fit allCoordination within Hs is hard enough
Start With the Watershed and the FishWhere do your fish come from?Where do they go?Graphics from “Salmon Story” webpage: .htm
Identify the Decision-makersWho manages, protects, and restores thehabitat the fish use?Who manages hatcheries that put fish into thewatershed?Who manages harvest of the fish?
Assess Current InvolvementHighInfluence of Decisions onRecoveryELowACDB0Number of WatershedCouncil Meetings Attended100
Assess Current InvolvementDo they recognize the influence of theiractions on recovering the fish?Are they actively engaged in implementing theRecovery Plan?Are better connections needed to ensureeffective strategies and their implementation?
Improving Integration EffectivenessWhat key decision-makers across the Hs needto be brought into implementation?What is the right avenue for involving them?What are effective ways to maintain the level ofinvolvement needed?What can your agency/watershed do toencourage involvement?
When is Step 1 Done?Key decisions and decision-makers – in and outof your watershed – identifiedUnderstanding of how and when decisions aremade, and how they could affect recoveryImplementation program maps connections to allkey decision-makers/decisionsActions aimed specifically atmaintaining involvement
“80% of success is showing up”
Step 1 worksheet questions Whatkey decision-makers across the Hs needto be brought into plan implementation? What challenges are preventing the level ofinvolvement you think is necessary forimplementing an effective recovery strategy? What are possible ways to achieve broader ormore effective involvement? What are effective ways to maintain the level ofinvolvement needed? What can your agency/watershed do toencourage involvement?
Step TwoGain a common understandingof how the system works.
Step TwoGain a common understanding of howthe system works –– What is the current status of yourpopulation(s)?– What is the current status of habitat,hatcheries, and harvest and how do theyaffect your population(s)?– Does everyone agree on the statusdescription?
The not so fine printdisclaimer:The following sets of questions andsources of data are intended to serveas suggestions, not as a finalauthoritative list.We do not presume to have “THEANSWER” - just some ideas.You probably have done much of thework to get these answers already –these can potentially serve as a list todoublecheck against.
What is the current status ofyour population(s)? What populations occur in yourwatershed? What is your best understanding ofeach population’s:– abundance?– productivity?– diversity?– spatial distribution?
Population status: potentialsources of information Juvenile outmigration studiesDistribution surveysOtolith analysisSpawner surveysHarvest totalsHatchery returns
What is the current status andeffect of habitat on salmon? What was the historical status of keyhabitat attributes in each spatial unitthat salmon used in your watershed? What is the current status of key habitatattributes in each spatial unit thatsalmon use in your watershed? How did the historical and the currenthabitat affect salmon: abundance,productivity, diversity, and spatialstructure?
Habitat status and effects:potential sources of information Habitat studies: on the ground andremote EDT modeling of impacts onsalmon SHIRAZ modeling of impacts onsalmon
What is the current status andeffect of harvest on salmon? What is the current total exploitationrate on each population?– Include all fisheries: in-river, PugetSound, ocean How does harvest affect salmon:abundance, productivity, diversity,and spatial structure?
Harvest status and effects:potential sources of informationHarvest manager records:– total harvested– age classes– location harvested– time harvested
What is the current status andeffect of hatcheries on salmon? What is the origin and quantity of thebroodstock they collect? Fish release information: how many?what sizes? where? when? What is the proportion of hatchery vs.natural origin fish: on the spawninggrounds, in the harvest, returning to thehatchery? How do hatcheries affect salmon:abundance, productivity, diversity, andspatial structure?
Hatchery status and effects:potential sources of information Hatchery manager reports:––––Broodstock collected (numbers, origin)Spawning protocolsRearing conditionsNumbers released (size, date, location) Harvest data, spawner surveys: hatcheryvs. natural origin fish
Common understanding Does everyone agree on the statusdescription? If not, how can differences ofopinion be resolved?
Step Three Agree upon common long-termgoals and short-term outcomes.
Goal – overall aim or purposeOutcome – measurableelement of a goal
Two types of goals Population goals – goal for the salmonseparate from human use needs. (e.g.sustainable, locally adapted population) Community goals – goals for human use thatimpact salmon. (e.g. want to continuesalmon harvest, use land and water foreconomic development, living spaces,farming)
MeasurablePopulation Outcomes Productivity/Capacity Abundance/Escapement Proportion of natural origin andhatchery origin fish on thespawning grounds
MeasurableCommunity Outcomes Numbers of harvestable fish Land use (types and density ofuses) Water use (user groups andquantities needed)
Goals and outcomes should Be based on the commonunderstanding developed in Step 2. Make a significant contribution torecovery of stock. Be clearly prioritized when they mightbe in conflict.
Process to define goals andoutcomes Both technical and policy people need to participate:1.2.3.4.Policy people outline draft long-term goals.Technical people use status evaluation in step 2to evaluate long-term goals, suggest potentialmeasurable outcomes.Policy people review and revise goals andoutcomes after considering technical analysis.Repeat steps 1 through 3 until satisfied.
Snohomish Basin ChinookCommon Understandings Resource Status Recovery Goals Management Goals
Population Status12000Natural Escapement10000Moving 9520002005
Snohomish System Chinook600005000040000Total 851990199520002005
Tulalip Tribes Chinook Catches20,00016,00012,0008,0004,0008A(wild andhatchery area)8D(hatcherystock area)1978198219861990199419982002
Area 8A/8D Harvest Rates on Wild ChinookHar. Rate60%40%20%0%1978198219861990199419982002
Hatchery-origin fishcontribution to naturalescapement(1997-2001) Snoqualmie population: 6% - 28% Skykomish population: 25% - 65%
Snohomish Basin ChinookCommon Understandings Resource Status Recovery Goals Management Goals
From June 2005 SnohomishRecovery Plan
Recovery Goals Viable populations Allow for fisheries Based on properly functioning habitat
Snoqualmie Population:Current 00Spawne rs40005000
EDT ResultsSnoqualmieProductivityScenarioHistoric 7520,12418,7472,28619,300
30000HISTORIC20000RecruitsRECOVERY GOALEquilibrium 19,300(low mar. 000040000
Recovery Goals Viable populations (checks with TRT criteria) Allow for fisheries (abundance/productivityranges provided to Shared Strategy) Based on properly functioning habitat(EDT analysis was set up this way)
Snohomish Basin ChinookCommon Understandings Resource Status Recovery Goals Management Goals
Management Goals10-year plan Habitat actions based on subbasin strategygroups– scenarios compared with Shiraz model– Begin to move populations to recovery goal
Management Goals10-year plan Harvest management limits harvest of wildSnohomish Chinook– recovery exploitation rate (RER) based on VRAPmodel– will allow population to respond to habitatimprovements with minimal impact from harvest Harvest opportunity provided to target onhatchery fish– Tulalip Bay terminal area fishery– Selective sport fisheries
Management Goals10-year plan Hatchery management minimizes impact ofhatchery production on wild stock recoverygoals– Finish conversion to all local broodstock– Integration of wild broodstock into hatcherybroodstock– Mass-marking of hatchery fish
How can we use thisinformation?
Step 2 worksheet questionsConsider if you have the following information foryour watershed What is your current understanding of thebiological status of the Chinook stock(s) in yourwatershed? Do you have an understanding of the status ofhabitat and its effect on salmon in your watershed? Do you have an understanding of the status ofharvest and its effect on salmon in your watershed? Do you have an understanding of the status ofhatcheries and their effect on salmon in yourwatershed?
Step 3 worksheet questions Has your watershed defined measurable populationoutcomes that are agreed upon by representatives ofall the H’s for Has your watershed defined measurable communityoutcomes that are agreed upon by representatives ofall the H’s for If the answer to any of the above questions is no,what are the potential challenges to being able todefine these desired outcomes? What are some next steps you can take to help yourwatershed define agreed upon outcomes for each ofthese questions?
Evaluating All-H Integration:Approach and ToolsJim ScottWDFW & TRT
Topics What are we attemptingto accomplish? What is the proposedapproach? What enhancements (ifany) are needed toexisting tools? How can we make itbetter?
You’re Trying to Do What? Promote integration –coordinated combinationof actions among the Hsectors Facilitate evaluation ofthe trade-offs inherentin alternative suites ofactions Develop hypothesesabout expectedoutcomes to drivemonitoring and adaptivemanagement
Currency?Viable Salmonid Population9 Diversity9 Spatial Structure9 Abundance9 Productivity
Development of MetricsTrajectory. Patternthrough time andspace of a segment ofa population.Geographic RangeFreshwaterSpawning &RearingAdultMigrationJuvenileMigrationOcean RearingTime
Development of Metricsfor Planning Purposes1) Simulate populationusing EDT, EDTPopulation,SHIRAZ, or othermodel that trackspopulationtrajectories2) Compare number ofsuccessfultrajectories underalternativestrategies
Application ExampleDungeness RiverGray Wolf RiverLower Dungeness RiverPhotos courtesy ofDungeness RiverManagement Team
Hypothesis for Current Status100%Spatial perDungenessGray WolfCurrent Habitat - 20% Harvest Rate
Hypothesized Effects of70% Fishery Harvest Rate100%Spatial Index80%60%40%20%0%Lower DungenessMiddle DungenessUpper DungenessGray WolfCurrent Habitat with 20% Harvest RateCurrent Habitat with 70% Harvest Rate
Hypothesized Effects ofNo Fishery Harvest100%Spatial Index80%60%40%20%0%Lower DungenessMiddle DungenessUpper DungenessGray WolfCurrent Habitat with 20% Harvest RateCurrent Habitat with 70% Harvest RateCurrent Habitat with No Harvest
What About Habitat Restoration?Gray Wolf RiverLower Dungeness RiverPhotos courtesy ofDungeness RiverManagement Team
Hypothesized Effects ofHabitat Restoration100%Spatial Index80%60%40%20%0%Lower Dungeness Middle Dungeness Upper DungenessCurrent Habitat with 70% Harvest RateEstuary: Historical ConditionsGray Wolf
Hypothesized Effects ofHabitat Restoration100%Spatial Index80%60%40%20%0%Lower DungenessMiddle DungenessUpper DungenessGray WolfCurrent Habitat with 70% Harvest RateEstuary: Historical ConditionsFreshwater: Properly Functioning ConditionsEstuary & Freshwater Restoration
Life History DiversityReimers (1971) categorized Chinooksalmon life histories in Sixes RiverOregon: Stream Type – downstream migration afterone year of freshwater residence Ocean Type – downstream migration withinfirst year after emergence Fry Migrant with downstream migration soonafter emergence Transient Migrant with short estuarineresidence Transient Migrant with extended estuarineresidence Fall Migrant
Hypothesized Effects ofHarvest on Life History DiversityLife History Index100%80%60%40%20%0%Fry MigrantTransient MigrantStream TypeCurrent Habitat with 20% Harvest RateCurrent Habitat with 70% Harvest RateCurrent Habitat with No Harvest
Hypothesized Effects ofHabitat Restoration on Life History DiversityLife History Index100%80%60%40%20%0%Fry MigrantTransient MigrantStream TypeCurrent Habitat with 70% Harvest RateEstuary: Historical ConditionsFreshwater: Properly Functioning ConditionsEstuary & Freshwater Restoration
Abundance & 202520302035
Poor Strategy ProvidesLimited 2005201020152020Year202520302035
Contrast AlternativeSuites of Actions2,000Abundance1,6001) Habitat Protection Measures in Place2) Fishery Harvest Rate Reduced3) Hatchery Conservation Progam Initiated4) Fine Sediments Levels Declining5) Hachery Conservation Program ath020002005201020152020Year202520302035
Tool Talk Reviewed analytical tools currentlyavailable Concluded no single tool wasadequate to meet current needs Compiled critiques of All HAnalyzer (AHA) Evaluated 3 alternative short-termsolutions
Tool Talk Three short-termalternatives: Clearly state toollimitations Supplement withother tools Develop enhancedtoolTable 1. Draft compilation of AHA review comments and options to addressthose comments.Review Comment1) Managers shouldconsider the modela tool for heuristicexploration ofintegratedstrategies forhatchery, harvest,and habitat actionsrather than aquantitativepredictor forspecificpopulations.(PSTRT)2a) Developersshould providedocumentation forthe model,including thestrengths andlimitations of themodel andsensitivity analysis.(PSTRT)2b) The AHA modelshould not beused until it isproperlydocumented andvalidated in asubstantive review.(ISAB)3a) Users should beable to incorporateuncertainty in theparameterestimates and themodel shoulddisplay uncertaintyof the results.(PSTRT)3b) Allowanceshould be made forvariation inAlternative 1Clearly State ToolLimitationsExplain and documentuse of tool consistentwithrecommendation.Alternative 2Supplement WithOther ToolsEDT populationmodel, SHIRAZ, orother toolsavailable forsome watersheds.Alternative 3Develop EnhancedToolDevelop watershedspecific empiricalmodel. (Varies bywatershed;generally longtermtask.)1) Provide resultsfrom EDTsensitivityanalysis.2) EDT populationmodel, SHIRAZ,or other toolsavailable forsomewatersheds.3) Improvesimulation ofvariability instock-recruitfunction usingempirical data.(July 2006)4) Incorporateuncertainty ingenetic analysis(Busack et al.2005). (JulyImplementrecommendations.Explain and documentuse of tool asheuristic evaluationof alternativestrategies; do notapply as tool forviability analysis.
Tool Talk Review Comment1) Managers should consider the model a toolfor heuristic exploration of integratedstrategies for hatchery, harvest, and habitatactions rather than a quantitative predictor forspecific populations. (PSTRT)2a) Developers should provide documentationfor the model, including the strengths andlimitations of the model and sensitivityanalysis. (PSTRT)2b) The AHA model should not be used until itis properly documented and validated in asubstantive review. (ISAB)Shortterm Approach1) Add explicit time dimension.2) Apply complementary tools such as SHIRAZ,EDT, and EDTP.Provide documentation and evaluate modelperformance relative to independent empiricaldata.3a) Users should be able to incorporate1) Incorporate stochastic variation in: a)uncertainty in the parameter estimates and thefreshwater and marine survival; b) initialmodel should display uncertainty of the results.population abundance; and c) harvest(PSTRT)management controls.3b) Allowance should be made for variation in2) Incorporate uncertainty in genetic parametersadditional critical input parameters, such asaffecting fitness (Busack et al. 2005).productivity, capacity, and harvest rate. (ISAB)
Summary What are we trying to do?– Promote integration– Facilitate comparison of strategies– Develop hypotheses about expected outcomes to drivemonitoring and adaptive management Currency: VSP characteristics Metrics: Planning & monitoring Tools– No single perfect tool– Improved tools under development– Current tools provide substantial insights
Spatial Structure MetricSpatial index for reach i under current conditions:(# viable trajectories current conditions)Si (# viable trajectories historical conditions)Cwhere a trajectory is defined as viable if theintrinsic productivity is greater than orequal to 1.
Example – Spatial StructureReach111Trajectory123Reach 1Viable under Scenario 1Viable HistoricallySpatial IndexProductivityScenario 1 Historical0.614.00.918.02.316.01333%
Example – Life History IndexReach111222Life HistoryPatternFry MigrantTransient MigrantStream TypeFry MigrantTransient MigrantStream TypeViable under Scenario 1Viable HistoricallyLife History IndexProductivityScenario 1 00%
Dungeness RiverSpatial Structure & Life History SummaryCurrent Habitat Condition and 20% Fishery Harvest RateSpatial StructureLife History TypeFry MigrantTransient MigrantStream %82%82%GrayWolf100%100%100%100%All73%69%68%70%
The All H Analyzer (AHA)a tool to examinesuites of actions
What does AHA do?AHA attempts to answer, given a certain setof actions: How many hatchery and natural originfish will:– be harvested?– return to the spawning grounds?– return to the hatchery? What is the proportion of natural influence (PNI)on the population?
AHA InputsHabitat:How productive is the habitat (productivity)?How much habitat is available (capacity)?Harvest:What is the harvest rate on natural origin andhatchery origin fish:– in the ocean?– in Puget Sound?– in the terminal river fishery?Hatchery:How much broodstock does the hatchery collect?How many smolts are produced?What percentage of hatchery fish: return to thehatchery? spawn in the wild?
habitathabitatproductivity ts% of hatchery fish: return to the hatchery? spawn in the wild?
AHA Outputs How many hatchery andnatural origin fish will:– be harvested?– return to the spawninggrounds?– return to the hatchery? What is the proportion of naturalinfluence (PNI) on the population?
What is theproportion ofnatural influenceon the population?How many hatchery andnatural origin fish will:– be harvested?– return to thespawning grounds?– return to thehatchery?
Test and compare short-termand long-term scenarios
Steps 1, 2,3and 4
6 Steps to Integration1. Identify and involve needed participants2. Gain a common understanding of thesystem3. Agree upon common goals and outcomesacross H-sectors4. Examine, evaluate, and select a suite ofcomplementary actions5. Document rationale, implementation steps,expected outcomes and benchmarks6. Build and implement a Verification,Effectiveness and Accountability System
Day Two Agenda (Part 1 of 2)9:00Q&A and reconnectSession 5Step 4: Examine, evaluate and select complementary suitesof actions (Part 2)10:30—10:40Break10:40Continue Step 4Noon lunchHaiku readings!
Day Two Agenda (Part 2 of 2)Session 6Step 5: document rationale and hypotheses, and describeimplementation stepsSession 7Step 6: Build & implement a verification, effectiveness &accountability systemSession 8Next steps ’06 to ‘07 & resources availableFeedback on overall H-I approach and processHaiku contest winner announced!3:30Closing Speaker4:00Close
See you tomorrow!
Haiku contest rules Write a haiku referencing adaptive management or the 6 steps to H-integration (if you’re the rhyming type, limericks are ok) Haikus are typically three line poems following a 5, 7, 5 syllable pattern Prepare a haiku to read during the Wednesday
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Office 2013 slides In Slides . slides.google.com Switching to Slides from Microsoft PowerPoint 2017 Google Inc., 1600 Amphitheatre Parkway, Mountain View, CA 94043, USA 7. Title: Switching to Slides from Microsoft PowerPoint Created Date: 2/24/2017 9:07:59 AM .
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