Mark Scheme (Results) - NH Papers

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Mark Scheme (Results)January 2017Pearson Edexcel InternationalAdvanced Subsidiaryin Economics (WEC02)Paper 01 Macroeconomic Performanceand Policy

Edexcel and BTEC QualificationsEdexcel and BTEC qualifications are awarded by Pearson, the UK’s largest awardingbody. We provide a wide range of qualifications including academic, vocational,occupational and specific programmes for employers. For further information visit ourqualifications websites at www.edexcel.com or www.btec.co.uk. Alternatively, you canget in touch with us using the details on our contact us page atwww.edexcel.com/contactus.Pearson: helping people progress, everywherePearson aspires to be the world’s leading learning company. Our aim is to helpeveryone progress in their lives through education. We believe in every kind oflearning, for all kinds of people, wherever they are in the world. We’ve been involvedin education for over 150 years, and by working across 70 countries, in 100languages, we have built an international reputation for our commitment to highstandards and raising achievement through innovation in education. Find out moreabout how we can help you and your students at: www.pearson.com/ukJanuary 2017Publications Code WEC02 01 1701 MSAll the material in this publication is copyright Pearson Education Ltd 2017

General Marking Guidance All candidates must receive the same treatment.Examiners must mark the first candidate in exactly thesame way as they mark the last. Mark schemes should be applied positively.Candidates must be rewarded for what they have shownthey can do rather than penalised for omissions. Examiners should mark according to the markscheme not according to their perception of where thegrade boundaries may lie. There is no ceiling on achievement. All marks onthe mark scheme should be used appropriately. All the marks on the mark scheme are designed to beawarded. Examiners should always award full marks ifdeserved, i.e. if the answer matches the mark scheme.Examiners should also be prepared to award zero marks ifthe candidate’s response is not worthy of credit accordingto the mark scheme. Where some judgement is required, mark schemeswill provide the principles by which marks will be awardedand exemplification may be limited. When examiners are in doubt regarding theapplication of the mark scheme to a candidate’s response,the team leader must be consulted. Crossed out work should be marked UNLESS thecandidate has replaced it with an alternative response.

Section A: Supported multiple choiceNB: Candidates may achieve up to 3 explanation marks even if the incorrectoption is selected.NB: Candidates may achieve up to 3 marks (rejection marks) for explainingthree incorrect options (provided three different reasons are offered andeach option key is clearly rejected).QuestionNumber1AnswerMarkAnswer C (1 mark)Explanation (up to 3 marks) Definition of balance of trade exportsimports OR net exports (X-M) (1) Exports imports surplus ORimports exports deficit (1) Examples include: in each year thebalance of trade is positive (1) In each year there is a balance of tradesurplus (1) EG 2008 225 billion/2014 250 billion(1)Rejection marks A is incorrect as the balance of trade ispositive in each year/not a deficit (1) B is incorrect as this would show abudget deficit (1) D is incorrect as the data does not showthe level of savings or investment (1)(4)

QuestionNumber2AnswerMarkAnswer D (1 mark)Explanation (up to 3 marks) CPI defined as a weighted basket of goodsand services (1) Inflation a sustained rise in the averageprice level (1) Award marks for use of data to supportcorrect answer / conclusion: In 2012 CPI 3.5%, 2013 2.1%, 2014 -0.1 %(1) CPI Increase 5-6% / decrease -0.1% (1) 2012-2013 disinflation (1) 2014 deflation (1) 2012-2013 inflation greater than 2014deflation (1) Average prices higher in 2014 than in 2012as increase in CPI greater than decrease inCPI (1)Rejection marks A is incorrect as disinflation/falling rate ofaverage price increase not deflation in 20082014/would have to be negative fordeflation (1) B is incorrect as inflation in 20102012/average prices rising at increasing rate(1) C is incorrect as average price in 2010 werehigher than 2009, just increasing at a slowerrate (1)(4)

QuestionNumber3AnswerMarkAnswer C (1 mark)Explanation (up to 3 marks) Technological advances increase efficiencyin the economy (1) This leads to higher productivity (1) Higher productivity shifts LRASoutwards/right (1) LRAS potential output of economy (1) LRAS shift (with justification) increasesreal output and decreases average pricelevel (1)Up to 2 marks for correct annotation of diagramshowing outward shift in LRAS (1), increase inreal output and fall in average price level (1)Rejection marks A is incorrect because average price levelwill fall due to increasedproductivity/efficiency (1) B is incorrect because average price levelwill fall and real output rise due toincreased productivity/efficiency (1) D is incorrect because real output will risedue to increased productivity/efficiency(1)(4)

QuestionNumber4AnswerMarkAnswer B (1 mark)Explanation (up to 3 marks) Minimum reserve ratios are an exampleof monetary policy (1) Increase in the amount of cash reservesbanks have to maintain/keep in reservewith the central bank (1) Increase in minimum reserve ratios willdecrease money supply (1) Increased minimum reserve ratios willreduce funds for borrowing (1) Impact of reduced borrowing may belower AD (C I) (1) Lower AD mean lower real output andprice level (1) Up to 2 marks for accurate diagramshowing inward shift in AD, lower realoutput and average price levelRejection marks A is incorrect because increased reserveratios likely to decrease AD and thusdecrease price level/likely to happen ifreserve ratio decreased (1) C is incorrect because increased reserveratios likely to decrease AD and thisdecrease real output (1) D is incorrect because increased reserveratios likely to decrease AD, decrease realoutput and increase unemployment (1)(4)

QuestionNumber5AnswerMarkAnswer C (1 mark)Explanation (up to 3 marks) Definition of per capita GDP asGDP/population (1) If GDP grows more rapidly than populationthen per capita GDP will increase (1) 2014 Per capita GDP growth because GDPgrowth is positive and population growth isnegative (1) Award 1 mark for any other accuratecomparison In all other years per capita GDP growthnegative (1) Up to 2 marks for accuratecalculation(s) used to support thecorrect answer e.g. In 2014 GDP growth is 101.3 /population growth of 99.5 1.01809(increase of 1.809%)Rejection marks A as incorrect as per capita GDP growth wasnegative in all years except 2014/positive in2014 (1) B as incorrect as per capita GDP growth wasnegative in 2011 and 2012 (1) D as incorrect as GDP growth was negativein all years except 2014 thus total GDP waslower in 2014 than in 2011 (1)(4)

QuestionNumber6AnswerMarkAnswer A (1 mark)Explanation (up to 3 marks) PPI measures changes in the costs ofproduction / index used to measure inputprices / prices charged by manufacturers forfinished goods (1)The producer (wholesale) price index showschanges in costs (1) which are likely to berepresented in future output prices (1)Rising producer (wholesale) price indexsuggests increase in CPI in the future ORfalling producer (wholesale) price indexsuggests decrease in CPI in the future (1)Rejection marks B is incorrect as marginal propensity toimport (MPM) measures relationshipbetween changes income and demand forimports (1) C is incorrect as it is more effected byoutput and incomes than wholesaleprices/no direct link between PPI and taxrevenues (1) D is incorrect as this is more determined bygovernment policies than wholesaleprices/PPI no direct link to governmentspending (1)(4)

QuestionNumber7AnswerAnswer B (1 mark)Explanation (up to 3 marks) Exchange rate defined as value of onecurrency in terms of another (1) Increase in exchange rate most likely toincrease export prices and decrease importprices/decrease net exports (1) Falling import prices likely to lower costs forbusiness (raw materials and wages). Thismay shift SRAS curve to the right(outwards) (1) Fall in demand for (more expensive) exportsand rise in demand for (cheaper) importsdecreases AD and shift curve to the left(inwards) (1) New equilibrium will therefore outcome ofshift of AD curve to the left and SRAS curveto the right (1)NB: 2 marks for correct annotation on givendiagram or their own diagram showing right shiftof SRAS and left shift of AD, impact on price leveland real output.Rejection marks A is incorrect as AD curve likely to shift leftMark

QuestionNumber8due to falling net exports (1)C is incorrect as there will be a change inSRAS and AD (1)D is incorrect as SRAS likely to shift rightdue to lower input costs (1)Answer(4)MarkAnswer D (1 mark)Explanation (up to 3 marks) Definition of fiscal/budget surplus: taxreceipts exceed government spending (1) Taxation is a withdrawal from the circularflow of income OR government spendingis an injection into the circular flow ofincome (1) Net withdrawal occurs when taxationexceeds government spending (1) Net withdrawal of 319 billion Krone inyear ending April 2014 (1) Likely to reduce AD as G is a componentof AD (1) Likely to reduce real output and averageprice level (1)Rejection marks A is incorrect – as fiscal/budget surplus isa net withdrawal and not an injection (1) B is incorrect – because AD and AS areinfluenced by other factors too/cannotdetermine from this data on its own (1) C is incorrect - as this would be thebalance of trade surplus not a fiscalsurplus (1)(4)

Section B: Data responseQuestionNumber9 (a)AnswerKnowledge (up to 2 marks): Balance of payments on current accountdefined:Current account includes net exports of goods(1)Current account includes net exports of services(1)Net transfers of income/profits (1)Current account includes net transfers (1)Deficit is withdrawal from circular flow ofincome (1)Surplus is injection into circular flow of income(1)Net exports (X-M) major determinant of BofP(1)If value of imports exceed value of imports thenlikely that BofP deficit/ If value of exportsexceed value of imports then likely that BofPsurplus (1)If net exports negative then growth likely to belower (1)Application (up to 2 marks):Reference(s) to data:EG 2010-2012 exports exceeded imports as % ofGDP (Figure 2) (1) 2013-2014 imports exceed exports as % of GDP(Figure 2) (1) Falling exports 2013 and 2104 at a time ofdecreasing growth (Figure 2) (1) Exports falling more rapidly than importsMark

QuestionNumber9 (b)suggest increasing deficit on BofP (1)Helps improve the BP current account each yearbetween 2010-2012 (1)Worsens BP current account in 2013-2014 (1)Answer(4)MarkKnowledge and application (up to 6 marks):Identifying possible causes/reasons: Falling consumption (C) (1) due to income taxrates high for low earners (Extract 1)(1) lowerAD and growth (1) Falling investment (I) (1) due to highcorporation tax meaning low investment(Extract 1) (1) and lower AD and growth (1) Higher inflation (1) leading to higher costs forfirms, lower SRAS (1) and lower growth (Figure1) (1) Falling net exports (X-M) as a percentage ofGDP (1) reducing AD and lowering growth (1)supported by data from Figure 2 (1) Infrastructure limitations/supply constraintsevident due to railway building (Extract 2) (1),constraining growth (1) and inhibiting tradelinks (1)Award up to 2 marks for an accurate diagram showingleft shift in AD, decrease in average price level andreal output.Award up to a maximum of three marks per reason(6)

QuestionNumber9 (c)Knowledge, application and analysis – indicative contentMacroeconomic objectives include: Increased economic growth, control ofinflation, a reduction in unemployment,equilibrium of the Balance of Payments,balanced budgets, redistribution of income,protection of the environment Analysis of why there is likely to be a trade-offbetween growth and inflation Data in Figure 1 suggests lower growth andhigher inflation/higher growth and lowerinflation 2010 growth of 8.5% and inflation of 1.5% 2014 growth of 2.2% and inflation of 3.2% Evidence shows slowing growth so less goodsand services produced to meet consumerdemand with resulting inflation and loweconomic growth Reasons – falling exports and rising imports(lower growth) and ‘imported inflation’ Stagflation – low growth and high inflation Falling exports may reduce value of currencyand increase price of imports causing higherinflation Diagram showing decrease in SRAS and fall inreal output and increase average price levelMark(10)One view may be presented as KAA and the otherviewpoint may be accepted as evaluation.Level0123Marks01-23-45-6DescriptorA completely inaccurate response.Shows some awareness of conflicts or data referencesUnderstanding of conflicts or some awareness ofconflicts and data referencesClear understanding of conflicts and linking to data

Evaluation – indicative content Inflation still relatively low at 3.2% Demand-led growth may contribute toinflation so positive correlation betweengrowth and inflation Long term will depend upon exports andimports If the fall in growth is short-term, inflationmay fall again in the future If the fall in growth is long-term, inflationmay continue to rise Impact upon inflation will depend uponmagnitude of change in imports and exports Some inflation is considered beneficial to aneconomySupply side shock likely to have reducedinflationary pressureLevelMarks Descriptor00No evaluative comments.11-2For identifying evaluative comments without explanation23-4For evaluative comments supported by relevantreasoning

QuestionNumberMark9 (d)Knowledge, application and analysis – indicative content Investment is included in GDP measure C I G (X-M) Investment is important component of AD andLRAS and productive potential Thus rising investment increases AD in theshort term In the long term increased investment mayincrease output potential of economy shiftingLRAS right (outwards) Investment in infrastructure may requireinvestment in human capital (EG training andeducation) and increase employment directly inconstruction Relate to GDP growth Multiplier effect upon AD Railway may reduce costs of transportation,increasing SRAS (lower costs) and LRAS(potential output) Accurate diagram showing increase in AD/LRASannotated and explained Level012(14)Accurate diagram showing increase in LRASAccurate PPF/PPC showing outward shiftannotated and explainedEconomics benefits may be presented as KAA butthe costs may be accepted as evaluation or viceversaMarksDescriptor0A completely inaccurate response.1-3Shows some awareness of possible benefits oridentification of one or more benefits. Understanding ofbenefits or data referencesMaterial presented is often irrelevant and lacksorganisation. Frequent punctuation and/or grammarerrors are likely to be present and the writing isgenerally unclear.4-6Identification and some explanation of benefits

37-8identified along with some development of analysis orsome identification of possible benefits and datareferences.Material is presented with some relevance but there arelikely to be passages which lack proper organisation.Punctuation and/or grammar errors are likely to bepresent which affect the clarity and coherence.Clear understanding and analysis of the benefits anddata references.Material is presented in a relevant and logical way.Some punctuation and/or grammar errors may befound, but the writing is clear and coherent overall.Evaluation – indicative content As AD increases (perhaps due to increasingdemand for exports) then inflation mayresult Railway may increase reliance uponcommodity exports and reliance upon Chinaas export destination Impact upon AD will depend upon size ofthe multiplier Outcome may be even higher imports asincomes are spent on imported goods andservices Impact upon employment will depend uponhow many jobs are created and for howlong in Peru Many construction jobs may be lowskills/low pay reducing impact upon AD Environment costs EG during constructionand day-to-day running Much depends on extent of movement ofLRAS curveLevelMarksDescriptor00No evaluative comments.11-2For identifying evaluative comments withoutexplanation.23-4For evaluative comments supported by some reasoningand relevant examples.35-6For evaluative comments supported by relevantreasoning and relevant examples.

QuestionNumber9(e)Knowledge, application and analysis – indicative content Fiscal policies relate to taxation andgovernment spending Fiscal policy may be contractionary orexpansionary Taxation is withdrawal from circular flow ofincome Peru expansionary policy - lower income tax(Extract 1) and cuts in tax on business profits(Extract 1) Increasing tax on dividends (Extract 1) toprovide an incentive to spend and invest in the‘real’ economy Fiscal policy (demand management) may bepopular and easy to implement when tax isbeing reduced Fiscal policy can be used to manage AD Cuts in tax on business profits may increaseSRAS Cuts in tax on business profits may promoteinvestment (AD) Cuts in tax on business profits may promotecapital investment (LRAS) Accurate diagram showing increase in ADannotated and explained Accurate diagram showing increase in SRASMark(14)One view may be presented as KAA and the otherviewpoint may be accepted as evaluation.Level012Marks01-34-6DescriptorA completely inaccurate response.Shows some awareness of possible benefits oridentification of one or more impacts. Understanding ofbenefits or data referencesMaterial presented is often irrelevant and lacksorganisation. Frequent punctuation and/or grammarerrors are likely to be present and the writing isgenerally unclear.Identification and some explanation of benefitsidentified along with some development of analysis orsome identification of possible benefits and datareferences.Material is presented with some relevance but there arelikely to be passages which lack proper organisation.Punctuation and/or grammar errors are likely to bepresent which affect the clarity and coherence.

37-8Clear understanding and analysis of the benefits anddata references.Material is presented in a relevant and logical way.Some punctuation and/or grammar errors may befound, but the writing is clear and coherent overall.Evaluation – indicative content Impact will depend upon the magnitude of thefiscal changes – size of tax cuts Impact will depend upon the length of time thepolicy is implemented If long term, more effect than short term Impact of income tax cuts will depend MPC andMPS Fiscal policies may be difficult to implementwhen contractionary (monetary policy may beless unpopular) Impact will depend upon efficient tax collectionsystem(s)/level of tax avoidance Impact will depend upon the size of theunofficial economyLevelMarksDescriptor00No evaluative comments.11-2For identifying evaluative comments withoutexplanation.23-4For evaluative comments supported by some reasoningand relevant examples.35-6For evaluative comments supported by relevantreasoning and relevant examples.

QuestionDefine AnswerNumber10 (a)Knowledge (up to 2 marks): MarkRecession is 2 consecutive quarters ofnegative economic growth/GDP growth (1)Sustained fall in real output (1)Then, identification of characteristics of arecession as part of explanation such as:rising unemployment; lower consumerspending; lower business investment (1)Application (up to 2 marks): Italy experienced negative annual growth in2009, 2010,2013 and 2014 (Figure 1) (1) Negative real GDP growth was more than 5% by the end of 2009 or start of 2010(Figure 1) Falling real output was sustained for morethan 2 consecutive quarters in every yearexcept 2008, 2011 and 2012 (Figure 1)(1) Unemployment (characteristic

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