OECD‑FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018‑2027

OECD‑FAO AgriculturalOutlook 2018‑2027Special focus: Middle East and North Africa

OECD-FAOAgricultural Outlook2018-2027

This work is published under the responsibility of the Secretary-General of the OECD and theDirector-General of the FAO. The opinions expressed and arguments employed herein do notnecessarily reflect the official views of OECD member countries, or the governments of the FAOmembers.This document, as well as any data and any map included herein are without prejudice to thestatus of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers andboundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area.The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do notimply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and AgricultureOrganization of the United Nations concerning the legal or development status of anycountry,territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers orboundaries.The names of countries and territories used in this joint publication follow the practice of the FAO.Please cite this publication as:OECD/FAO (2018), OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027, OECD Publishing, Paris/Food and AgricultureOrganization of the United Nations, Rome.https://doi.org/10.1787/agr outlook-2018-enISBN 978-92-64-29721-0 (print)ISBN 978-92-64-06203-0 (PDF)Series: OECD-FAO Agricultural OutlookISSN 1563-0447 (print)ISSN 1999-1142 (online)FAOISBN 978-92-5-130501-0 (Print and PDF)The statistical data for Israel are supplied by and under the responsibility of the relevant Israeli authorities. The use of suchdata by the OECD is without prejudice to the status of the Golan Heights, East Jerusalem and Israeli settlements in the WestBank under the terms of international law.The position of the United Nations on the question of Jerusalem is contained in General Assembly Resolution 181(II) of 29November 1947, and subsequent resolutions of the General Assembly and the Security Council concerning this question.Photo credits: Cover Original cover concept designed by Juan Luis Salazar. Adaptations by OECD.Corrigenda to OECD publications may be found on line at: www.oecd.org/about/publishing/corrigenda.htm. OECD/FAO 2018You can copy, download or print OECD content for your own use, and you can include excerpts from OECD publications, databases and multimediaproducts in your own documents, presentations, blogs, websites and teaching materials, provided that suitable acknowledgment of OECD and FAO assource and copyright owner is given. All requests for public or commercial use and translation rights should be submitted to rights@oecd.org. Requestsfor permission to photocopy portions of this material for public or commercial use shall be addressed directly to the Copyright Clearance Center (CCC)at info@copyright.com or the Centre francais d’exploitation du droit de copie (CFC) at contact@cfcopies.com.

FOREWORDForewordThe Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Foodand Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) have come together for the14th year to prepare the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027. This report isenriched by our close collaboration with contributing member country institutions,specialised commodity bodies, and other partner organisations, and has become an annualbenchmark that provides a consistent picture of medium-term trends in global agriculture.By bringing together evidence-based market and policy information from experts across awide range of countries, the OECD and FAO are supporting our Members in the pursuitof their shared global priorities. This is particularly the case for the SustainableDevelopment Goals (SDGs), which aim to end hunger, achieve food security, improvenutrition, and promote sustainable agriculture by 2030. Our joint work on agriculturalmarket projections helps to identify and assess opportunities and threats related to theSDG targets and to the commitments made in the UN Framework Convention on ClimateChange’s 2015 Paris Agreement. Agriculture not only contributes to climate change (thesector still accounts for more than a fifth of all greenhouse gas emissions), but will alsobe impacted by climate change. So it is fundamental to promote the adaptation ofagricultural sectors through sustainable practices that can also mitigate the impacts ofclimate change.Global agro-food trade will also play an increasingly important role in ensuring foodsecurity, especially for import-dependent regions. An enabling trade policy environmentis a crucial condition to achieve the SDGs and make progress towards zero hunger,particularly in the context of climate change. Building on these efforts, AgricultureMinisters convened at the OECD in 2016 and adopted a Declaration on Better Polices toAchieve a Productive, Sustainable and Resilient Global Food System, which places ahigh priority on policies that underpin competitive, sustainable, productive and resilientfarm and food businesses.This year’s edition of the Agricultural Outlook includes a special chapter on the MiddleEast and North Africa (MENA), a region where conflict and political instability haveamplified issues of food insecurity and malnutrition. The need for the region to addressthese challenges, with limited land and water resources, will be further compounded bythe expected impact of more frequent extreme climate-related events. We need toimprove the resilience and sustainability of food systems in times of conflict, to valoriseresources which are becoming ever more fragile and scarce.Our partners in the G20 and G7 likewise continue to prioritise food security andagricultural issues on their policy agendas. Along with the Agricultural Outlook, theAgricultural Market Information System (AMIS) is part of our wider efforts to providetimely market information to policy makers and global stakeholders. It represents a vitaltool that enhances transparency and helps to prevent unexpected price hikes by coordinating policy action. AMIS was championed by the G20 and is housed at the FAOwith support by numerous international organisations like the OECD.OECD-FAO AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK 2018-2027 OECD 2018 3

4 FOREWORDThe challenges we face today cannot be tackled alone. We hope that our collaborativeeffort on this annual publication will continue to provide governments and all otherstakeholders with the evidence base they need to achieve the ambitious and importantgoals we must meet together.Angel GurríaSecretary-GeneralOrganisation for EconomicCo-operation and DevelopmentJosé Graziano da SilvaDirector-GeneralFood and Agriculture Organizationof the United NationsOECD-FAO AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK 2018-2027 OECD 2018

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSAcknowledgementsThe Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027 is a collaborative effort of the Organisation forEconomic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and AgricultureOrganization (FAO) of the United Nations. It brings together the commodity, policy andcountry expertise of both organisations and input from collaborating member countries toprovide an annual assessment of prospects for the coming decade of national, regionaland global agricultural commodity markets. The baseline projection is not a forecastabout the future, but rather a plausible scenario based on specific assumptions regardingthe macroeconomic conditions, the agriculture and trade policy settings, weatherconditions, longer term productivity trends and international market developments.The Agricultural Outlook is prepared jointly by the OECD and FAO Secretariats.At the OECD, the baseline projections and Outlook report were prepared by members ofthe Trade and Agriculture Directorate: Marcel Adenäuer, Jonathan Brooks (Head ofDivision), Koen Deconinck, Annelies Deuss, Armelle Elasri (publication co-ordinator),Gen Furuhashi, Hubertus Gay (Outlook co-ordinator), Céline Giner, Gaëlle Gouarin,Claude Nenert, Arnaud Pincet and Grégoire Tallard of the Agro-Food Trade and MarketsDivision, and for fish and seafood by James Innes of the Natural Resources PolicyDivision. Michael Ryan provided input for the antimicrobial resistance box. The OECDSecretariat is grateful for the contributions provided by visiting experts Joanna Hitchner(United States Department of Agriculture), Roel Jongeneel (Wageningen EconomicResearch, the Netherlands) and Yu Wen (Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences).The partial stochastic modelling builds on work by the Economics of Agriculture Unit ofthe European Commission's Joint Research Centre, namely Sergio René Araujo Enciso,Simone Pieralli, Thomas Chatzopoulos and Ignacio Pérez Domínguez. The organisationof meetings and publication preparation were provided by Kelsey Burns, Helen Maguireand Michèle Patterson. Technical assistance in the preparation of the Outlook databasewas provided by Eric Espinasse and Frano Ilicic. Many other colleagues in the OECDSecretariat and member country delegations provided useful comments on earlier draftsof the report.At the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the baseline projectionsand Outlook report were prepared by members of the Trade and Markets Division (EST)under the leadership of Boubaker Ben-Belhassen (EST Division Director) and JosefSchmidhuber (EST Division Deputy Director) with the overall guidance of KostasStamoulis (Assistant Director-General, Economic and Social Development Department)and by the Economic and Social Development Department Management team. The coreprojections team consisted of: Katia Covarrubias, Fabio De Cagno, Sergio René AraujoEnciso, Emily Carroll, Gloria Cicerone, Holger Matthey (Team Leader) and JavierSanchez Alvarez. For fish and seafood, the team consisted of Stefania Vannuccini fromthe FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Department, with technical support from PierreCharlebois. Advice on fishmeal and fish oil issues was provided by Enrico Bachis fromthe Marine Ingredients Organisation (IFFO). Commodity expertise was provided byOECD-FAO AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK 2018-2027 OECD 2018 5