OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2015 To 2024 Focus On Latin America
OECD-FAOAgricultural Outlook2015 to 2024Focus on Latin AmericaStephan Hubertus GayOECD Trade and Agriculture DirectorateMéxico, 29 October 2015
Long term real price trendReal Maize PriceLong Term TrendUSD/t1 2001 0008006004002000OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2015-2024 www.agri-outlook.org #AgOutlook222
Prices to remain higher than the years precedingthe 2007-08 price spikeCerealsDairyMeatOilseedsIndex (2012-14 100)120110100908070605040OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2015-2024 www.agri-outlook.org #AgOutlook333
This Outlook integrates uncertainty analysisNominal maize priceUSD/t40035030090th25020010th150100OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2015-2024 www.agri-outlook.org 20142013201220112010200920082007200620050200450444
Focus on Latin America Production increase based on yield growth and areaexpansion The Americas main surplus region Special chapter on Brazil Context: agriculture’s evolving role in the economy Main highlights of the Outlook for Brazil Three core challenges:1. Sustaining agricultural productivity growth2. Improving the environmental sustainability ofagriculture3. Achieving further reductions in poverty and inequalityOECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2015-2024 www.agri-outlook.org #AgOutlook555
Arable crop areas and yield changes in Latin AmericaAverage annual percentage change 20024 relative to 2012-14Notes: Axis refer to average annual percentage changes in yield and area harvested over the projection period (2015-24), while the size of the bubbles areindicative of the share in total arable crop area in the base period (2012-2014).OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2015-2024 www.agri-outlook.org #AgOutlook666
Arable crop areas and yield changes in Asia and PacificAverage annual percentage change 20024 relative to 2012-14Notes: Axis refer to average annual percentage changes in yield and area harvested over the projection period (2015-24), while the size of the bubbles areindicative of the share in total arable crop area in the base period (2012-2014).OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2015-2024 www.agri-outlook.org #AgOutlook777
World exports concentratedConcentration of exports, 2024AFRICAAMERICASASIAEUROPE OCEANIA OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2015-2024 www.agri-outlook.org #AgOutlookStrong regionaldifferences persistUS, EU and Brazilremain among topexportersIn addition to sugar,Brazil will becomeleading exporter of beefand poultry.Increased market risks,associated with naturaldisasters or theadoption of disruptivetrade measures.888
World imports dispersedConcentration of imports, 2024 OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2015-2024 www.agri-outlook.org #AgOutlookChina stands out asmain importer of manycommodities.Trade pattern betweendeveloping anddeveloped countries willpersist.Trade and domesticpolicies are expected toinfluence999
Producer support (percentage of gross revenues)Market Price SupportPayments based on output and variable input useOther payments to farmers%353025201510502000-02 2012-14 2000-02 2012-14 2000-02 2012-14 2000-02 2012-14 2000-02 2012-14 2000-02 2012-14 2000-02 2012-14OECDChileEuropean UnionMexicoUnited StatesBrazilChinaOECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2015-2024 www.agri-outlook.org #AgOutlook101010
Agriculture plays an important role in thefunctioning of the Brazilian economy Share of primary agriculture in GDP not especially high: 5.4%in 2013 Broader supply chain from inputs to processing & retail: 18% Agriculture and agro-food account for more than 1/3 of totalexports major foreign currency earner The sector has played a “buffer” role during periods of weakeconomic growth The sector supplies almost half the country’s energyrequirements It accounts for 13% of employment Poverty in Brazil is predominantly urban, but the incidence ishigher in rural areas where farming is a central activityOECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2015-2024 www.agri-outlook.org #AgOutlook111111
Rapid development of the agricultural sector Agricultural output has more than doubled since 1990 The main driver has been rapid productivity growth, with someincrease in agricultural area Technological change Capital replacing labour Change in the destination of exports: Asian market hasbecome more important than the European one Slowing rate of deforestation – debate on agriculture’s directand indirect contribution Agriculture a significant source of GHG emissions, but totalemissions falling Rapid reductions in poverty and hunger, with improved accessto foodOECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2015-2024 www.agri-outlook.org #AgOutlook121212
Highlights for Brazil Brazil to become foremost supplier in meeting additionalglobal import demand But for many products a large share of production goesto the domestic market Production growth to come mostly from productivityimprovements, with little increase in agricultural area Further reforms could enhance productivity – e.g. investment ininfrastructure, reduced regulatory burden Forest Code, Low Carbon Agriculture will improve sustainability offarming practices Opportunities for family farmers in key products, e.g.coffee, tropical fruitsOECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2015-2024 www.agri-outlook.org #AgOutlook131313
Allocation of ten year production increases ofmajor exportable commodities in BrazilInternational MarketDomestic Market% Change706050403020100EthanolCottonOilseedsOECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2015-2024 www.agri-outlook.org #AgOutlookSugarPorkPoultryBeefCoarsegrains141414
Impacts of 25% higher (or lower) economic growthin ChinaChina ImportsBrazil Exports to ChinaBrazil ExportsBrazil ProductionMt43changes by 2024210-1-2-3-4OilseedsSugarOECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2015-2024 www.agri-outlook.org #AgOutlookVegetable oilsPoultryCotton151515
Crop production in BrazilOilseedsMtCoarse 00500000OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2015-2024 www.agri-outlook.org #AgOutlook161616
More sugarcane allocated to produce ethanolEthanolMtSugarBiofuelbillion 0250002000015000200100001005000002000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2015-2024 www.agri-outlook.org #AgOutlook171717
Challenge 1: Sustaining productivity growth Reducing the costs of doing business: Lower regulatory burden, lower industrial tariffs,simplified indirect taxes Improving the capacity for development: Investment in infrastructure; strengthening humancapital Strengthening the innovation system Alignment of policy incentivesOECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2015-2024 www.agri-outlook.org #AgOutlook181818
Challenge 2: Improving the environmentalsustainability of agriculture Brazil has abundant natural resourcesEnvironmental constraints vary across the countryProduction increases can be achieved sustainablyCurrent policies emphasise these opportunities New Forest Code; Low Carbon Agriculture Agriculture a significant source of GHG emissions –impact of a prospective climate change agreement stillunclearOECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2015-2024 www.agri-outlook.org #AgOutlook191919
Challenge 3: Achieving further reductions inpoverty and inequality Within agriculture, there are commercial opportunities forpoorer farmers in some sectors (e.g. coffee, tropicalfruits) Targeted investments can help farmers realise thoseopportunities Parallel need for balanced rural development thatcreates jobs both within and outside agricultureOECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2015-2024 www.agri-outlook.org #AgOutlook202020
We invite you to visit our websitewww.agri-outlook.orgFor inquiries or further information, please contact:Gregoire Tallardtad.contact@oecd.orgTrade and Agriculture Directorate(OECD)OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2015-2024 www.agri-outlook.org #AgOutlookHolger MattheyEST-Projections@fao.orgTrade and Markets Division(FAO)212121
OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2015-2024 www.agri-outlook.org #AgOutlook 19 19 Brazil has abundant natural resources Environmental constraints vary across the country Production increases can be achieved sustainably Current policies emphasise these opportunities New Forest Code; Low Carbon Agriculture
OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2012-2021 OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2012-2021 The eighteenth edition of the Agricultural Outlook, and the eighth prepared jointly with the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), provides projections to 2021 for the major agricultural commodities and biofuels as well as fish and seafood.
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) have come together for the 14th year to prepare the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027. This report is enriched by our close collaboration with contributing member country institutions, specialised commodity bodies, and other partner organisations, and .
(OECD-FAO Guidance) and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). It aims to help businesses contribute to achieving the SDGs by implementing the recommendations of the OECD-FAO Guidance. The OECD-FAO Guidance for Responsible Agricultural Supply Chains The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture
This Overview is based on the June 2015 OECD Economic Outlook and is published under the responsibility of the Secretary-General of the OECD. The opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of OECD member countries. The country notes for Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Mexico are reproduced from the OECD Economic Outlook.
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This is the 13th joint edition of theOECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook. It provides ten-year It provides ten-year projections to 2026 for the major agricultural commodities, as well as for biofuels and fish.
OECD and non-OECD net electricity generation Trillion kilowatt-hours World electricity use by sector Quadrillion Btu Net electricity generation in non-OECD countries increases twice as fast as in the OECD with building use being a major contributor to growth in the EIA Reference Case 0 5 10 15 20 25 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 non-OECD OECD 0 .
FSA ELA Reading Practice Test Questions Now answer Numbers 1 through 5. Base your answers on the passages “Beautiful as the Day” and “Pirate Story.” 1. Select the sentence from Passage 1 that supports the idea that the children are imaginative. A “‘Father says it was once,’ Anthea said; ‘he says there are shells there thousands of years old.’” (paragraph 2) B “Of course .
