A Framework For Establishing Climate Resilient Communities .

A Framework for EstablishingClimate Resilient CommunitiesPlanning for an Uncertain FuturePhil PasterisPrincipal TechnologistGlobal Water ResourcesCH2M HILLPortland, OregonArmin Munévar, P.E.Senior TechnologistGlobal Water ResourcesCH2M HILLSan Diego, CA @ch2m.com619.687.0120 Ext. 7218

Fundamental Issues – Climate Change A planning problem at local, national and global levels The degree, nature, and timing of the impacts arepotentially large, but uncertain “Policymakers look to climate change science to answertwo critical questions:– What can we do to prepare for the impacts ofclimate change (adaptation);– What steps might be taken to slow it (mitigation)?”-Richard Alley, Professor, Penn State University

Is Climate Changing?A Brief Recap of Climate Observations

Global Temperatures, Sea Levels, and Snow Cover 1 deg. C 175 mm-1.5 m km2Source: IPCC 4AR (2007)

Observed U.S. Temperature TrendsRate of Change Long-Term Temperature TrendDegrees F / Decade, Starting in 1976ColoradoRiver Basin 3.6 Deg. FSource: Climate Prediction Center (2008)

Is Climate Changing?A Brief Recap of Climate Change Projections

Emission Scenarios Developed byIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change“Scenario Family”DescriptionA1 – Rapid GrowthA1F1 - FossilIntensiveA1T - Non-fossilA1B – BalancedSecond HighestGreenhouseEmissionsA2 – HeterogeneousHigh PopulationGrowthSlow Economic andTechnology ChangeHighest GreenhouseEmissionsB1 – ConvergentWorldSame Population asA1, more service andinformationtechnology.Lowest GreenhouseEmissionsB2 – IntermediatePopulation growth,local solutions.Second LowestGreenhouseEmissionSRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios, IPCC 2000)A1F1A2A1BB2A1TB1Scenarios for GHG emissions from 2000 to 2100in the absence of additional climate policies.

Multi-Model Projected Temperature Increases 6.4 deg. C 4.0 deg. C 2.4 deg. C 1.8 deg. C 0.6 deg. CSource: IPCC 4AR (2007)

Multi-Model ProjectedTemperature & Sea Level IncreasesSource: IPCC 4AR (2007)

Spatial Temperature Projections(Atmosphere-Ocean GCM)Source: IPCC 4AR (2007)

Spatial Precipitation Projections Very likely increases at high-latitudes, while decreases are likely inmost subtropical areas Indications that wet regions will be wetter and dry regions drier Prediction is complex and still not consensus for many regions

Some Sectors will be Impacted More than OthersWater Resources Sector is Leading Area for AdaptationSource: NAS 2006

Climate Variability and Uncertainty

Climate Variability: Past, Present, FutureClimate Variability Observed climate and hydrology is only a smallpiece of the puzzle Must recognize that insights to hydroclimaticvariability come from paleo, observed, and futureviews of reVariability?Time

Dealing with Time - Climate “Sudden Impact?”FloodUSGS KansasDroughtState of GeorgiaHurricaneNOAA

Dealing With Time - Climate “Un-Sudden Impact?”Muir and Riggs Glaciers, Alaska 1941 - 2004“An American public that is more informed about global warming isn'tnecessarily one that is more concerned about it.” - Researchers atTexas A&M globalwarming/2008-04-07climate N.htm

Paleo Climate Record – Colorado RiverMeko et al. (2007) reconstruction of annual streamflow for the ColoradoRiver at Lees Ferry, 762-2005, 20-year running mean in black (annualvalues not shown). The yellow bar highlights the severe and sustainedmid-1100s drought.

Recent Data – Colorado RiverFull Pool – 3,700’ 111’From Full3/6/08Reservoir storage in Lake Powell and Lake Mead has decreasedduring the past 8 years. Reservoir storage in Lake Powell is 45percent of capacity. Storage in Lake Mead is 50 percent ofcapacity.

April 1, 2008 WSF – Colorado RiverPotentiallythe HighestI

1. Initiate a climate resiliency effort (scope, sectors, and resources) 2. Conduct a climate resiliency study (sensitivity, adaptive capac