White Paper 3D Printing: A Guide For Decision-Makers

The current state of 3D printingWhat is 3D printing?The phrases “3D printing” and “additive manufacturing”are often used interchangeably by practitioners. Thispaper will use 3D printing, or 3DP, to refer to thistechnology, as this is the underlying enabler that hasbroader applications, while additive manufacturing (AM) isspecific to manufacturing. The International Organizationfor Standardization’s American Society for Testing andMaterials 52900 terminology standard defines AM as theprocess of joining materials to make parts from 3D modeldata, usually layer by layer.Several techniques produce parts in layer-by-layer fashionby extruding, photocuring, fusing, jetting or laminatingmaterials (Redwood, Schöffer & Garret, 2017). Thesetechniques construct a part by virtually slicing it intoextremely thin slices and then building up the part in the3D printer by repetitively building one layer on top ofanother, until the entire part is built up (Figure 1). This isdramatically different from conventional manufacturingmethods (for example, subtractive methods – see Figure2). Today, plastic, metal, ceramic, glass, composite andbiomaterial parts can be 3D-printed.With thoughtful redesign, or use of tools such asgenerative design (Generative Design, n.d.), 3D-printedparts can outperform their conventionally madecounterparts in terms of weight, strength or general fitnessfor purpose (though weak inter-layer strength is a concern,and is a focus of research). Several components previouslymade in multiple manufacturing steps can be combinedinto a single-step production, reducing supply chain risk,cost and lead time. In the digitally driven processes of 3DP,manufactured goods could be rapidly updated to createnew versions.3DP technology has existed for over 30 years, with an earlypatent in the 1980s (Hull, 1984). Since then, 3DP has beentouted as capable of transforming how goods are produced,with a big hype in the period 2011-2014 (Basiliere & Shanler,2019). The early hype has died down, but the technologycontinues to evolve, with many new printer manufacturersfocusing on metals and desktop units. Manufacturing of 3Dprinters picked up after 2008, when early patents beganto expire. Over the past decade, the number of printermanufacturers has risen steadily.Consumer 3DP generally has not gone beyond do-ityourself enthusiasts, even though the number of onlineresources available for sharing 3D models and for print jobshas increased over the years. Key reasons for this lack ofwidespread adoption are the difficulty of creating 3D modelsto meet individual needs, and capital and operating costsof devices with required functionality. The high-skill needsof computer-aided design (CAD) and the unique skillsrequired to design 3D-printable models pose a high barrier.Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) may lower this barrierthrough broad availability of consumer-friendly apps.Current applicationsThe most common manufacturing applications for 3DP areprototyping and tooling (jigs and fixtures). Designers andarchitects prototype their creations and refine them throughquick iterations before moving beyond prototyping. In May2019, Heineken reported a 70-90% lead time and costreduction using low-cost desktop 3D printers to producetooling (van de Staak, 2019). A growing application is themaking of spare parts on demand, instead of manufacturingand stocking ahead of time. Thus, 3DP is complementingtraditional manufacturing. The segment of 3D-printed enduse parts, while small, is growing: over the past 10 years,Figure 1: 3DP – The layer-by-layer build-up of parts123Source: Based on 3D HUBS, “Introduction to FDM 3D printing”, -fdm-3d-printing63D Printing: A Guide for Decision-Makers

Figure 2: Schematic illustration of subtractive and additive (3DP) manufacturing methodsSubtractiveAdditiveSource: Based on 3D HUBS: “3D Printing vs. CNC machining”, vs-cnc-machiningproduction of end-use parts has increased from 15.6% to28.4% (as a percentage of parts produced by 3DP facilities),according to the 2009 and 2019 editions of the WohlersReport (Wohlers Associates, 2019).Owing to the needs of individual customization, dentalaligners and hearing aids are increasingly produced using3DP, and surgical guides are also 3D-printed. The trendtowards 3DP hubs, known as FabLabs, is increasing; theyhost a variety of 3D printers and fulfil orders for printing as aservice. This allows manufacturers and others to experimentwith 3DP without making capital investments in the printers.UPS is an early entrant into the 3DP business with 3D printersat many of its US depots, mainly serving small businesses.A small do-it-yourself ecosystem exists among prosumers,the home users beyond hobbyists. The 3DP industry is nowin the throes of qualifying its machines and processes forbroader aerospace and automotive applications.Future applicationsAlong with the internet of things (IoT) and AI, 3DP couldenable truly digital manufacturing. Data from the IoT coulddrive digital manufacturing processes, AI could convert thedata into information for decision-making, and 3D printerswill make parts from digital design files.In one potential scenario, as 3DP adoption grows, anaggressive scaling of decentralized manufacturing mayoccur in automotive, aerospace and other areas. The useof 3DP in these areas can be expected to expand into themanufacturing of functional components. The adoption ofmaking spare parts on demand may skyrocket, decimatinginventories of pre-manufactured parts everywhere. Infact, the technology has the potential to shake up themanufacturing sector (D’Aveni, 2018).Another scenario is that 3DP use in construction could grow,fostered by initiatives such as one in Dubai (Jezard, 2018),which projects that 25% of Dubai’s buildings will be 3D-printedby 2025. Similarly, China has started experimenting inconstruction, having already 3D-printed a six-storey apartmentbuilding and a 1,100 square metre villa (Stott, 2015).Additional scenarios could include opportunities for masscustomization in food, nutrition, fashion, automobiles,footwear and toys, among other sectors. Bioprinting mayreplace organ donation and become the primary sourceof artificial limbs. Use of 3DP could become standard forproducing custom implants and prosthetics.3DP hubs might proliferate, and consumer access to 3DPcould expand, allowing a much larger cross section of thepopulation to experiment with it. Home 3D printers andFabLabs might spawn a new generation of crafts, just as thesewing machine did (Lange, 2014).From all these scenarios, new, creative business modelsare likely to emerge, leveraging the benefits of 3DP andthereby creating further opportunities for disruption. Thesemodels are expected to further increase the share of servicesin 3DP revenues.3D Printing: A Guide for Decision-Makers7

The pace of adoptionWhile 3DP revenues have been growing fast (Figure 3),2018 global revenues totalled 9.8 billion, a rather smallamount compared to global manufacturing revenues of 12.8 trillion. The potential for additive manufacturing toattain 1% of global manufacturing revenue in the nextfive years is five times greater than the most optimisticprojections, as reported in the 3D Hubs 3D Printing TrendsQ1 2019 report (3D Hubs, 2019).Figure 3: Global 3DP revenues (in million ) 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000ProductsServices 5,000Products include AM systems,materials, and aftermarket products,such as software and lasers. 4,000 3,000Services include revenuesgenerated from parts produced onAM systems by service providersand system manufacturers, systemmaintenance contracts, training,seminars, conferences, expositions,advertising, publications, contractresearch, and consulting services. 2,000 1,000 093 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18Source: Wohlers Associates, 2019Most experts agree that 3DP is likely to be deployed inniche or custom products, rather than taking the placeof established production approaches (e.g. for everydayplastics). Experts differ on when 3DP revenues will makea dent in global manufacturing revenue, with opinionsranging from 10 to 30 years.Most products are manufactured in factories. To achievescale-up, manufacturing must adopt 3DP on a large scale.Currently, 3DP is mainly used for rapid prototyping, toolingand low-volume production. What prevents 3DP from scalingup quickly in manufacturing? Some of the reasons are:83D Printing: A Guide for Decision-Makers– The technology is not always reliable in terms ofreproducibility and yield, for example, though reliability isimproving rapidly, especially in high-end printers.– The unit cost of making a 3DP part is higher than thosefor traditionally volume-manufactured goods, making3DP more suitable for low-volume products.– The strong perception is that 3DP processes are slow;for true comparison, however, end-to-end productiontime – from raw materials to finished products – mustbe considered.

– Manufacturers consider that 3DP is yet another tool, andthat it must prove its mettle in process/quality control.This takes time.– Scaling up depends on the availability of skilled labourand on process standardization, both of which will taketime to achieve for a new technology.– Manufacturers need data on the benefits of 3DP to theirproducts, but the data will not be available until 3DP iswidely adopted in their sectors. This is a circular situation.– Policy issues (Ferracane, 2016), such as those forcertifying 3DP parts for healthcare applications, take timeto address.– 3DP enables decentralized manufacturing. Butseveral barriers to move to distributed/decentralizedmanufacturing exist, including the investments needed(Rauch, Dallinger, Dallasega & Matt, 2015) and highpost-processing labour content. Logistics costs forlight products seem not significant enough to triggerdecentralized manufacturing near consumption markets(Freund, Mulabdic & Ruta, 2019).What can be done to help the scale-up of 3DP? For this,deeper, strategic realignments on 3DP’s fundamentalcapabilities are needed, in addition to integration with supplychains and business models. The reflections in Figure 4 arecritical for stakeholders to make strategic realignments.– Turning the promise of mass customization to reality isnot simple. Only 10% of online shoppers use productcustomization options (Spaulding & Perry, 2013), as itdoes take effort for consumers to provide informationrequired to customize products.Figure 4: Key questions for developing strategies to adopt 3DP in manufacturingCorporate StrategyNational StrategyIn what respects do your manufacturing capabilitiesdrive your competitive advantage?How do you promote 3DP within your region / country?How do trade barriers, transportation challenges,and localized requirements affect your ability to serveyour markets?How can you take advantage of decentralization and shortersupply chain opportunities?What investments are needed?How do you create the needed ecosystem?How do you create a trained workforce?How do you work with intergovernmental agencies toaddress cross-border challenges?How do you mitigate IP risks of a digital, decentralizedsupply chain?Product StrategyEngineering & Operational StrategyHow can you leverage fast turnarounds, low fixed costs,and high marginal costs?How do you integrate 3DP within the entire product lifecycle?What software and process monitoring systems are needed?Where can you leverage mass customization?How do you qualify the new materials and processes?How can you take advantage of innovative, new geometries,and ease of per-part customization?How do you take advantage of the lower material/inventoryneeds of 3DP?How do you phase in new 3DP products vs replacingexisting ones with 3DP?Note: IP intellectual propertySource: World Economic Forum and Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings Corporation, with contributions from Formlabs and Bain & Company3D Printing: A Guide for Decision-Makers9

How can businesses andgovernments prepare for the future?3DP, like other Fourth Industrial Revolution technologies suchas AI, blockchain, IoT and autonomy, needs to be addressed,as business strategies and appropriate policies have failed tokeep pace with the growth of these technologies. Businessesand governments are responsible for shaping the trajectory ofthe technology for positive outcomes. 3DP can affect multipleareas, including the five covered in this paper: manufacturing,trade and customs, supply chains, legality and safety, and theenvironment and sustainability. Many of these areas requireearly preparation, considering the time needed to developtargeted policies and regulations. The policies and regulationscan serve as enablers for the legitimate development of 3DP,while providing a level playing field and setting out a robustregulatory mandate and associated mechanisms againstpotential misuses.Figure 5 presents leading indicators that could be monitoredas they can be used to gauge impact on the five areasexplored in the subsections that follow. Table 1 lists theleading indicators and their significance, and the actions thatmight be taken to predict upcoming trends and challenges inthe five areas.Figure 5: Leading indicators to monitor trends of 3DP adoption and upcoming challengesCompany roadmapsthat include 3DPSales data ofindustrial 3D printers3DP product failurereportsCustomerpreference forcustom productsRegulatory violationsinvolving 3DP goodsIncrease incyberattacksSales data of home3D printersNumber of 3DPlawsuitsDigital manufacturingTrade volumesTrade & customsGlobal supply chainsDisruptive 3D printerinnovationsApplications for 3DPfacilitiesLegality & safetyEnvironment & sustainabilityClosure of traditionalmanufacturingfacilitiesUse of 3DP in missioncritical applicationsPrice of 3DPinput materialsTraining programmesin 3DPNumber of 3DPgoods in the marketEmergence of easy-to-use3DP design toolsSource: World Economic Forum and Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings Corporation103D Printing: A Guide for Decision-MakersNational 3DPstrategiesSales data ofdesktop 3D printers

While it would be important for business leaders andpolicy-makers to project potential outcomes of the growthof 3DP, the outcomes cannot be projected with certainty –they may or may not happen in some cases, and in othercases the opposite may occur. An example of the latter isglobal trade. There have been suggestions on both sides,namely those that argue that global trade will decline(Leering, 2017) and those that predict the opposite (Freund,Mulabdic & Ruta, 2019). Because of these uncertainties, itis important to watch for signs of what might happen, andeconomic models can help quantify this. Yet 3DP economicmodels are generally lacking, with some first attempts in thisdirection (Abeliansky, 2019).Table 1: Leading indicators, their significance and how to use themLeading indicatorSignificance of indicatorSuggested actionsCompany roadmaps thatinclude 3DPWhen 3DP appears on company roadmaps,plans to decentralize and bring productionclose to consumption might occurReview whether the roadmapimplicates moving or closingfacilities; look for projections ofworkforce changesSales data of industrial3D printersAn increase in the volume of industrial 3Dprinters might suggest their potential useeither in making niche products or in replacingtraditional manufacturing equipmentExamine the market segmentationof customers buying the printers;review which ones includetraditional manufacturersConsumer preferencefor custom productsAs customers show increased preferencefor bespoke products, mass customizationopportunities increase for 3DPIdentify product opportunities formass customization using 3DP;look for new business models thatemerge to benefit from theseSales data of home3D printersAn uptick in household 3D printer purchasescould result in increased household plasticwaste and reduced shipping volumesTrack statistics of 3DP materialsales to households to understandif the printers are being activelyused to make parts at homeTrade volumesIndicators such as the World TradeOrganization (WTO) trade barometers couldsignal increasing or decreasing trade trends ingoods and services, giving a first indication ofwhether looking further into trade statistics ofintermediary products is neededLook for trade volume reductionsin intermediary goods forwhich demand in final goodsin consumption markets is stillhigh, to identify early signs ofdecentralizationTrade statistics from the Organisation forEconomic Co-operation and Development(OECD) Trade in Value Added (TiVA)database could signal a reduction of foreignvalue-added content of exports, whichcould suggest increasing 3DP uptake inconsumption marketsApplications for3DP facilitiesAs the number of printing locations increases,the potential for production near consumptionincreasesCheck to see if products from thefacilities will serve a local market,and if so, whether the productsdisplace current products3D Printing: A Guide for Decision-Makers11

Leading indicatorSignificance of indicatorSuggested actionsClosure of traditionalmanufacturing facilitiesClosures of traditional manufacturing facilitiesresult in displacement of the workforceCheck if closures are related totrends in target consumer marketspicking up 3DP production closeto consumptionTraining programmesin 3DPIntroduction of programmes at educationalinstitutions to train students in 3DP is inanticipation of demand for such expertise, andtherefore of changes in employment patternsReview enrolment and graduationrates in formal and informal coursesto estimate availability of trained 3DPworkforce and the shift in skill needsNational 3DP strategiesAs more nations consider 3DP as part oftheir growth strategy, the prospects fordecentralization growExplore how to meet the needs inthe national strategies with existing/expanded 3DP facilities; studythe proposed product portfolio toestimate decentralizationSales data of desktop3DP printersAn increase in desktop printer sales signalswidespread use in smaller factories andFabLabs, which could suggest an increase inthe trade in digital goodsStudy the market segmentation ofdesktop 3D printer sales, notablybetween industrial and FabLab use,to understand uptake in eachEmergence of easy-to-use3DP design toolsDesign skills pose a barrier to adoption; toolsand online resources that lower the barrierthrough ease of use will promote 3DP adoptionFollow sales of the new tools andthe number of designs made/downloaded and parts printedusing the new toolsNumber of 3DP goodsin the marketMore 3DP goods appearing in the market isindicative of changes in the supply chainMonitor supply chain reports onproducts that are replaced by 3DPgoods to understand the effect ofthe supply chain on those productsPrice of 3DP input materialsProprietary input materials keep prices relativelyhigh today; a drop in prices could signifydemand or commoditizationTrack increase in sales volume of3DP input materials due to drop inprice, to estimate usage increaseUse of 3DP in missioncritical applicationsWhen critical parts, such as for aircraft, are3D-printed, the risk of cyberattacks on theprinters increasesTrack parts being produced using3D printers in critical se

Oct 12, 2019 · generative design (Generative Design, n.d.), 3D-printed parts can outperform their conventionally made counterparts in terms of weight, strength or general fitness for purpose (though weak inter-layer strength is a concern, and is a focus of research). Several components previo