Fire Risk Assessment: A Systematic Review Of The Methodology And .

.Iranian Journal of Health, Safety & Environment, Vol.4, No.1, pp.654-669Gustavo method, matrix method, because semiqualitative analysis can achieve a simple, relativelyquantitative fire-risk even in case of incomplete firedata. Quantitative fire-risk assessment methods areable to absolutely quantify fire-risk with a hugeamount of data as support, and the calculation iscomplicated, which required users to masterprobability theoretical and practical researches andmore specialized mathematical knowledge [3].Research in the field of fire-risk analysis is vital [7].the fire-risk assessment methods; hence conferenceproceeding papers, textbooks, and doctoraldissertations, master’s theses, and unpublished paperswere excluded from the literature review. All journalswere studied from early 2004 until the end of 2014.Due to difficult accessing to data before 2004 as wellas the lack of relevant articles before this year, articlespublished in the years before 2004 did not investigate.In the Library databases search, a total of 93 articlesfrom 13 scientific journals on the subject of fire-riskassessment were obtained. Studies related to fire-riskassessment were in multiple and various fields, so itwas difficult for researchers to find titles related to theissues. After detailed and deep analysis, functionalareas of examined articles were identified, and wereclassified in eight categories: Environmental impact,production and industry, transportation, buildings,power industry, oil and gas industry, urban fires andother topics. Other topics contain articles that were notin any of the previous seven categories. Then thearticles in the relevant category were selected.Although some of the papers were related to theseveral categories, but finally and according to thesurvey, each paper was placed in the most relevantcategory. In following sections, 93 articles compiledbased on mentioned eight categories will beconsidered. At the beginning of each sectionreferenced to several cases of related article, and thenall the articles in each category will be presented in theform of summarized in tables.The existing articles were identified, analyzed,classified, coded and were registered in a table (table1). As each article was reviewed, it was classified byseveral categories: year of publication, authors,authors’ nationality, and the application area, name ofthe article, tools/methodologies, fire risk assessmentmethod and Journal of publication. Although thisreview cannot contend to be comprehensive, it coversa large portion of fire risk assessment publications, andtherefore is a useful source for fire risk assessmentresearchers and experts.Fire risk evaluation:Fire risk evaluation involves applying the developedrisk criteria and making a decision about the level offire risk.Fire risk treatment: Fire risk treatment is the processof improving existing risk control measures,developing new risk control measures andimplementing these measures to reduce fire risk [8].RESEARCH METHODOLOGYA literature review based on a study of scientificjournals was conducted to build a framework for firerisk assessment research. The aim was to identifythose of the existing articles in scientific journals,which had been described the methods andapplications in the field of fire-risk assessment. On thisbasis first list of journals with articles about the firerisk assessment was prepared. Each journal that had atleast two papers in the field of fire risk assessmentswas selected. In Search on site at any magazinearchives, with front keyword search was conducted:"Fire-risk", "Fire-risk analysis"," FRA" and "Fire riskassessment ". It must be noted that search with thiskeywords was performed just in the article's title. Theonly journals were selected that had at least twoarticles related to fire-risk assessment. If articles hadfound with these keywords but not related to the firerisk assessment were excluded from the study. Theliterature review was conducted to identify the articlesin scientific journals, which provide most valuableinformation to researchers and practitioners studyingTable1: The classification scheme for the literature review on fire risk ionalityApplicationareaNameofthe articleTools/methodologiesFire riskassessment methodJournal ofpublication12 93are in areas such as Forest fires, Grassland andWildlife. Forest fires play a critical role in egradation and air quality. So, improvements in firerisk estimation to reduce the negative impacts of firesand identifying areas with high risk of fire in forestareas and understand how they can change over timeRESULTS AND DISCUSSIONAnalysis of fire risk assessment application areasEnvironmental ImpactDifferent studies have been conducted to assess theenvironmental impact of fires. Many of these studies656

Parisa Moshashaei et al., Fire Risk Assessment: A Systematic Review to prioritize forest management activities and reducethe risk of fire is essential [7]. Forest fire statistics inPoland show a clear growing trend. Overall, in thecountry, in 1999–2005, a surface area of 55,877 ha wasburned in the course of 72,338 forest fires [12]. InPortugal, in the period 1990–2005 the total burnedarea was a value of approximately 2.2 106 ha,equivalent to nearly 25% of the country area [13].The study’s results showed that the use of fire-riskassessment is a useful tool for managers to helpimprove the effectiveness of fire prevention, diagnosisand allocation of resources to fight during fire in thesocial and environmental areas [14]. Grassland fire isa cause of major disturbance to ecosystems andeconomies throughout the world, because these firesare the main sources of greenhouse gas emissions.Hongfeng and colleagues conducted a study toinvestigate the disruptive effects of grassland fire onthe Hulunbuir grassland of China. The study selectedfactors for fire-risk assessment using a set of datacollection and evaluation methods: remote sensing,geographic information systems, and statisticalyearbook data. Their study showed that almost half ofthe regions studied (54.32%) are at risk [15]. Otherstudies in the field of environmental impact of fires areshown in Table 2.Table 2: Studies related to fire risk assessment in the field of "environmental impact "Othertools/methodologiesused-The method used to fire riskassessmentNo.Author(s)Article Title1He, Shang et al.[16]Simulating forest fuel and fire risk dynamicsacross landscapes—LANDIS fuel moduledesign2Keane, Drury et al.[17]-FIREHARM3Shang, He et al. ologicaland validation5Ager, Vaillant et al.[19]-1.Landscape fuel treatmentstrategies2.Quantitative risk analysis6Braun [20]-7Bugalho et al. [21]A method for mapping fire hazard and riskacross multiple scales and its application infire managementFuel load reductions and fire risk in centralhardwood forests of the united states: a spatialsimulation studyAssessment of forest fire risk in the Serra daEstrelaNaturalPark(Portugal):Methodological application and validationA comparison of landscape fuel treatmentstrategies to mitigate wildland fire risk in theurban interface and preserve old foreststructureWildland fire risk—Integrating communityresilience or community vulnerabilityattributes and hazard assessments, to providea comprehensive risk modeAssessment of forest fire risk in Portugalcombining meteorological and e or communityvulnerability attributes andhazard assessmentsCombiningmeteorologicaland vegetation information8Carmel et al. [22]Assessing fire risk using Monte Carlosimulations of fire spreadMonte Carlo simulations9Carreiras and Pereira[13]Crecente-Campo etal. [23]An inductive fire risk map for PortugalFARSITE,a twodimensional fire growthand behavior modelwas activated, usingArcView VBA code-Impacts of thinning on structure, growth andrisk of crown fire in a Pinus sylvestris L.plantation in northern Spain-11Finney et al. [24]-12Fiorucci et al. [25]-Static risk assessment13González-Olabarriaet al.[10]González-Olabarriaet al.[26]The challenge of quantitative risk analysis forwildland firePower law distribution of wildland fires andstatic risk assessmentIntegrating fire risk considerations inlandscape-level forest planning1.Basal area of larger trees(BALMOD)2. Model to estimate canopybulk density (CBD)Quantitative risk analysis-Landscape-levelplanningMapping fire risk in the Model Forest ofUrbión (Spain) based on airborne LiDARmeasurementsWildland fire hazard and risk: Problems,definitions, and contextFlamMap1. LiDAR derived data2. fire behavior models-Synthetic scenario results in a“decision space”101415andHardy eapplicationFire risk mapforest

.Iranian Journal of Health, Safety & Environment, Vol.4, No.1, pp.654-669Fire risk ignition: The integrated model“AIOLI”An investigation on forest-fire riskassessment in selected areas in Greece andTurkeyForest fire risk assessment through analyzingignition characteristics of forest fuel bedRemotedetectionimages and GIS-Integrated model “AIOLI"-Classification of veldfire risk in South Africafor the administration of the legislationregarding fire managementWUI and road networks/vegetation interfacescharacterizing and mapping for forest fire riskassessment-Lee and Irwin [31]Assessing risks to spotted owls from forestthinning in fire-adapted forests of the westernUnited States-22O’Laughlin [4]Policy issues relevant to risk assessments,balancing risks, and the National Fire Plan:Needs and opportunities-23Fiorucci et al. [32]-24Paz et al. [33]Optimal preventiveaerialresourcesrelocation based on dynamic wildland firerisk assessmentPost-fire analysis of pre-fire mapping of firerisk: A recent case study from Mt. Carmel(Israel)25Shinneman[34]-26Ubysz et al. [12]27Verbesselt[35]28Yebra et al. [36]Can landscape-level ecological restorationinfluence fire risk? A spatially-explicitassessment of a northern temperate-southernboreal forest landscapeAnalysis of the trends in the forest fire risk forrecent years in Poland against the backgroundof long-term trendsMonitoring vegetation water content ofgrasslands and forest plantations to assessforest fire risk with satellite time-seriesInvestigation of a method to estimate live fuelmoisture content from satellite measurementsin fire risk assessmentAnalyzing ignitioncharacteristics of forest fuelbedCombinations of likelihoodand consequences( semi-quantitative matrix)WUIandroadnetworks/vegetationinterfaces characterizing andmappingCombination of populationdata,canopycovermeasurements, and forestsimulation models1. Risk-based policiesNationalEnvironmentalPolicy Act (NEPA)2. Panelists and organizationalmissionsRisk maps produced by adynamic risk forecastingsystemCombination of Monte Carlosimulation of spatial spread offire ignition with fire behaviormodel (FARSITE)Forest landscape simulationmodel29Calkin et al. [37]30Gaither et al. [38]31HerawatiSantoso [39]32Riera and Mogas.[40]Evaluation of a risk reduction in forest firesin a Mediterranean region33Maki et al. [41]Estimation of leaf water status to monitor therisk of forest fires by using remotely senseddata34Mbow et al. [42]Spectral indices and fire behavior simulationfor fire risk assessment in savannaecosystems16Jappiot et al. [5]17Kambezidis[27]18Kim et al.[28]19Kruger et al.[29]20Lampin et al. [30]21et al.et al.et al.andProgresstowardsandbarrierstoimplementation of a risk framework for USfederal wildland fire policy and decisionmakingWildland fire risk and social vulnerability inthe Southeastern United States: Anexploratory spatial data analysis approachTropical forest susceptibility to and risk offire under changing climate: A review of firenature, policy and institutions in Indonesia658Remote sensing ,GIS, ArcGis# 8.3 softwareFire-risk map,modelnullFire Weather Index (FWI) andthe Initial Spread Index (ISI)-The weatherconditions and litter humidityNormalized ssionequations(MLR),simulationmodelsPROSPECTand SAILH, multitemporaryempiricalfittings and reflectivitysimulation modelsNew analytical methodsto measure wildfire risktohumanandecological values-SPOTVEGETATIONsatellite data-1.Future climate change2. Climate change scenariosand current fire managementpracticesThe results of a referendumapplicationContingent valuationmethod (CVM), travelcost method-LANDSAT-ETMimagesFIRA algorithm-Method to estimate watercontent lanalysis approachdataRelationship between leafwaterstatusandthenormalized difference waterindex (NDWI)Spectralindicesandsimulation

Parisa Moshashaei et al., Fire Risk Assessment: A Systematic Review 35Verbesselt[43]et al.Monitoring herbaceous fuel moisture contentwith SPOT VEGETATION time-series forfire risk prediction in savanna ecosystemsThe identification and assessment of areas atrisk of forest fire using fuzzy methodologyFire risk assessment in the Brazilian Amazonusing MODIS imagery and change vectoranalysisIntroducing two indicators for fire riskconsideration in the management of borealforestsSpatial indicators of fire risk in the arid andsemi-arid zone of Australia3637Castillo and Miguel[44]Maeda et al. [45]38Raulier et al. [46]39Turner et al. [47]40Carvalho et al. [48]Fire weather risk assessment under climatechange using a dynamical downscalingapproach41Iliadis [49]A decision support system applying anintegrated fuzzy model for long-term forestfire risk estimationfire area(FARSITE)-simulator-Monitoring herbaceous fuelmoisture content with SPOTVEGETATION time-seriesFuzzy methodology-MODIS imagery and changevector analysis-Site index and relative densityindex and Fire cycle lengthNOAA-AVHRRsatellite imageryConceptual framework whichserves both to summarizeexisting knowledge and toreduce the complexity for aquantitative statistical analysisThe dynamical downscalingbetweenglobalclimatemodels and regional modelsGeneralcirculationmodel (MUGCM) and aregional meteorologicalmodel (MM5)Fuzzy algebraA triangular and a trapezoidalmembership function, basedon various aspects of fuzzysets and fuzzy machinelearning techniqueslogistics warehouse fire-risk were gained. Secondly,the model was designed to assess the logisticswarehouse fire-risk by means of expert investigationand using the method of AHP and fuzzycomprehensive assessment. Finally results showedthat the assessment methodology of logisticswarehouse fire-risk is reasonable, effective andfeasible [52].Fire disasters in the mining industry have very severeconsequences. Prevention of the occurrence of theseevents is one of the most important requirements insafety in mines in all over the world. In a study thatwas conducted by Lin and et al. at the coal mine, therisk early-warning theory was regarded as thetheoretical foundation for resolving the safetyproblems in coal mines. Establishment of themacroscopic model of risk early-warning on it deepensthe researches on safety early-warning mechanism andtechnology [53]. Other studies in the field ofproduction and industry are shown in Table 3.Production and industryIn this part, non-chemical process fires will bediscussed. Cases applied under this title are in the fieldof mining, logistics warehouse, tanks (Tanks LNG andatmospheric storage tanks), physical processes andHydraulic and magnesium production factory.Fire occurs in most industries due to the explosion.Explosion is a process of very fast chemical orphysical conversion of substance, which isaccompanied by transition of its internal energy tomechanical work [50]. More than 100,000 tons ofpowdered or granular magnesium are producedannually in China in factories with high potential fireand explosion risk. A study by Gang and et al. wasconducted to evaluate fire-risk in magnesiumproduction factory. The results showed that sparkcaused by static electricity, mechanical friction, orimpacts are the most likely ignition sources for finemagnesium powder fires and explosions [51].Along with the development of socialist marketeconomy, the logistics industry such as logisticwarehouses has developed rapidly. Not only thiswarehouse type functions are different from the otherplaces, but also it has different characteristics in termsof fire. At present, the assessment methods of thelogistics warehouse fire safety aren’t enough. With thedevelopment of society and science technology, riskproblems are becoming the problem which peoplemust face. In order to achieve fast and safe industriallogistics, a study by Ren, Shaoyun to review safetyissues and fire-risk assessment was conducted inlogistics warehouse. Firstly, based on the logisticswarehouse fire accidents, the four aspects of theTransportationThe complexities of modern societies are constantlyrising. Hazardous materials are transported throughdifferent ways [57]. Road tunnels constitute essentialpublic-works projects, from both a practical and aneconomic standpoint, because they limit the length oftransportation and thus reduce transportation time andcosts. Tunnels are particularly difficult to accessduring rescue actions. In heavy traffic conditions, it ishard for rescue vehicles to get around obstacles, and itis often impossible to get inside the tunnel to reach thescene of the fire. Furthermore, the enclosed nature oftunnel structures causes to fast temperature increases659

.Iranian Journal of Health, Safety & Environment, Vol.4, No.1, pp.654-669during a fire and causes problems for ventilation andexhaust of fumes [58]. A study by Gandit et al. wasconducted in the region of the French Alps Rvn- toassess the prevention of fires in tunnels. For thispurpose a questionnaire was used to search ofdocuments based on discussions with tunnels experts,and visiting the tunnels and analyzing videos of firesin tunnels was conducted. Finally, with according tothe results obtained, Recommendations weresuggested for long-term prevention policy bearingjointly on beliefs, behaviors, improved informationand warning systems [58]. Other studies in the field oftransportation are shown in Table 4.Table 3: Studies related to fire risk assessment in the field of "production and industry"No.Author(s)Article TitleOthertools/methodologiesused-The method used to fire riskassessment1Moon et al. [54]2Alhussan [50]Fire risk assessment of gas turbinepropulsion system for LNG carriersThermal Radiation of Explosion: Estimationsof Risk of Thermal Defeat of People andOccurrence of Fires-The physical model, algorithm, andprogram code for modeling onedimensionalhydrodynamicprocessesApproach is given for analyzing therisks for fires and explosions basedon the Mine Safety and HealthAdministration citation databaseLastFire methodology3Larry Grayson etal. [55]Pilot sample risk analysis for undergroundcoal mine fires and explosions using MSHAcitation data-4Crippa et al. [56]Fire risk management system for safeoperation of large atmospheric storage tanks-Descriptive studyTable 4: Studies related to fire risk assessment in the field of "transportation"Othertools/methodologies usedThe method used to firerisk ation resultsFramework of a quantitative risk analysis forthe fire safety in metro systems-Frameworkofaquantitative risk analysisRisk analysis of fire and evacuation events inthe European railway transport networkEvents TreesDesign fire scenario (DFS)No.Author(s)Article Title1Van de Linde et al. [59]Fire protection for high speed line tunnels:Risk analysis and exceptional roboticapplication results2Udor and Sfarlos. [60]Fire risk management in public undergroundtransport system – Bucharest Metro, Romania3Soons et al. [61]4Camillo et al. [11]compare the merits of the order of the factors. A studywas conducted by Guang-wang et al. to assess firerisks in high-rise buildings using Fuzzycomprehensive evaluation model [62].An appropriate design of fire engineering safety mustensure the safety of the residents of a building duringa fire. In recent years, the urban population, the size ofcities and urbanization are rapidly increasing. ManyLarge buildings, towers, high-rise buildings andunderground buildings have increased dramatically. Inthe other words, due to large number of people andcomplex building spaces, once a fire occurs, residents’evacuation is difficult. Some studies have done by thedevelopment of performance based design to assessbuilding fire risks. Chu and Sun were consideredquantitative risk analysis for quantitative estimation ofrisk due to random factors. In some models andsystems, the number of deaths and the risk of losingBuildingsWith ongoing development of economic, social andbuilding technology, high-rise buildings aredeveloping quickly; so fire issues are growingincreasingly, too. Building functional diversificationcauses that prevention of this type of fire became morecomplex. The sizes of high-rise buildings, highconcentration of people and property, make thefirefighting and evacuation operations very difficult infire cases. It is necessary to conduct the fire riskassessment for high-rise buildings to control of fireaccidents. In evaluation of high-rise buildings fires, itis necessary to consider not only the prevention beforethe fire, but also firefighting, evacuation and spreadingin fire cases. The high-rise buildings fire-riskassessment involves many factors. Quantifying ofmany of these factors is difficult, so there will be acertain ambiguity. For such system, it is difficult to660

Parisa Moshashaei et al., Fire Risk Assessment: A Systematic Review people is considered as a risk assessment purpose. Theresults of this study were in relation to the decision onthe replacement of various fire safety designs based onof buildings fire risk assessment [63].With developing fire and smoke propagation, severalfactors, such as temperature, smoke, particles, c

Fire-risk identification is the systematic process to understand how, when, and why fire could happen. Fire risk analysis: Fire risk analysis is the process of estimating magnitudes of consequence and probabilities of the adverse effects on people and property [11]. The end result of fire-risk analysis is expressed in qualitative,