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2005OECD Employment Outlook«OECD EmploymentOutlookTrade-adjustment costs in OECD labour markets: a mountain or a molehill? — How manyworkers are losing their jobs as a result of rising imports or the “delocalisation” of jobs? Aretrade-displaced workers able to move into new jobs which offer pay comparable to that ofthe lost jobs? How can governments best assist these workers to re-integrate intoemployment?How persistent are regional disparities in employment? The role of geographic mobility — Isthere a regional dimension to employment performance? How much do regional disparitiesin employment relate to differences in sectoral specialisation or educational attainment?Does geographic mobility play a role in reducing regional disparities in employment? Arethere barriers to mobility in existing policies, in particular housing policies?Increasing financial incentives to work: the role of in-work benefits — To what extent domeasures that raise the financial incentives to work really increase the employment chancesof unemployed and inactive individuals? How can we ensure that in-work benefits do notend up creating low-pay traps? Under what conditions are in-work benefits cost-effective?Labour market programmes and activation strategies: evaluating the impacts — Do labourmarket programmes work? Do activation strategies deliver better employment prospectsand higher earnings for their participants? If they deter some benefit claims, is this a positiveoutcome? Can active labour market programmes increase total employment?Public employment services: managing performance — How should the objectives of thepublic employment service be defined and measured? And how can the authoritiessuccessfully contract publicly-financed employment services out to private providers?OECD Employment OutlookThe full text of this book is available on line via these 59Those with access to all OECD books on line should use this D is the OECD's online library of books, periodicals and statistical databases.For more information about this award-winning service and free trials ask your librarian, or write to us atSourceOECD@oecd.org.www.oecd.org2005ISBN 92-64-01045-981 2005 13 1 P-:HSTCQE UVUYZV:2005

OECD EmploymentOutlook2005ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT

The OECD Employment Outlookwww.oecd.org/els/employmentoutlookProvides an annual assessment of labour market developments and prospects inmember countries. Each issue contains an overall analysis of the latest labour market trendsand short-term forecasts, and examines key labour market developments. Referencestatistics are also included.The OECD Employment Outlook is the joint work of staff of the Directorate for Employment,Labour and Social Affairs, and has benefitted from contributions from national governmentdelegates. It is published on the responsibility of the Secretary-General of the OECD.This report is based on draft contributions from Paul Swaim and Pascal Marianna(Introduction and Chapter 1), Anne Saint-Martin and Ann Vourc’h (Chapter 2), GlendaQuintini (Chapter 3) and David Grubb (Chapters 4 and 5). Raymond Torres coordinated andedited the report. The assessments of countries’ labour market prospects do not necessarilycorrespond to those of the national authorities concerned.ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATIONAND DEVELOPMENTThe OECD is a unique forum where the governments of 30 democracies work together toaddress the economic, social and environmental challenges of globalisation. The OECD is also atthe forefront of efforts to understand and to help governments respond to new developments andconcerns, such as corporate governance, the information economy and the challenges of anageing population. The Organisation provides a setting where governments can compare policyexperiences, seek answers to common problems, identify good practice and work to co-ordinatedomestic and international policies.The OECD member countries are: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, the Czech Republic,Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Korea,Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, the Slovak Republic,Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States. The Commission ofthe European Communities takes part in the work of the OECD.OECD Publishing disseminates widely the results of the Organisation’s statistics gathering andresearch on economic, social and environmental issues, as well as the conventions, guidelines andstandards agreed by its members.This work is published on the responsibility of the Secretary-General of the OECD. Theopinions expressed and arguments employed herein do not necessarily reflect the officialviews of the Organisation or of the governments of its member countries.Also available in French under the title:Perspectives de l'emploi de l'OCDE : 2005 OECD 2005No reproduction, copy, transmission or translation of this publication may be made without written permission. Applications should be sent toOECD Publishing: rights@oecd.org or by fax (33 1) 45 24 13 91. Permission to photocopy a portion of this work should be addressed to the Centrefrançais d'exploitation du droit de copie, 20, rue des Grands-Augustins, 75006 Paris, France (contact@cfcopies.com).

TABLE OF CONTENTSTable of ContentsEditorial – Globalisation: Coping with the Challenge. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9Introduction: Short-term Employment Prospects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .A. Economic outlook to the year 2006 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .B. Employment and unemployment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .C. Compensation and labour costs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15161819Chapter 1.Trade-adjustment Costs in OECD Labour Markets:A Mountain or a Molehill?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .23Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Main findings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1. The long-run effects of trade on labour market outcomes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .A. Aggregate gains from trade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .B. Winners and losers in the labour market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .C. Can high-wage countries remain competitive in the “global” economy?. . .2. Labour market adjustment costs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .A. What is the policy rationale for addressing adjustment costs? . . . . . . . . . . .B. The incidence of trade-related job displacement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .C. The characteristics of trade-displaced workers and their adjustment costs . . .3. Policies to reduce trade-adjustment costs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .A. Is there still a role for domestic labour market policy in the global economy?B. Choosing how to intervene: five strategic choices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .C. What role for proactive measures?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2425272727283434354248485152D. Should trade-displaced workers be compensated for their losses(and if so, how)? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .E. What role for targeted programmes? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .535659Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .67Chapter 2.How Persistent are Regional Disparities in Employment?The Role of Geographic Mobility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Main findings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1. Disparities in labour market performance: is there a regional dimensionto employment problems? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .A. Employment and unemployment at the regional level . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .B. Regional disparities in labour market performance: underlying factors . . .C. Regional disparities in labour market performance and workers’ geographicmobility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .OECD EMPLOYMENT OUTLOOK – ISBN 92-64-01045-9 – OECD 2005737474767682873

TABLE OF CONTENTS2.Public policy and regional disparities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95A. Removing barriers to mobility arising from housing policies . . . . . . . . . . . . 96B. Ensuring that unemployment insurance benefits and ALMPs do not inhibitmobility and support change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104C. Promoting job creation at the local level . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110Annex 2.A1. Sources and Definitions of Data on Regional Labour Markets . . . . . . . . 113Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120Chapter 3.Increasing Financial Incentives to Work: The Role of In-work Benefits. . . . 125Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Main findings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1. Financial incentives to work and their impact on employment transitions. . . .A. A picture of financial incentives to work across countries and family types . .B. Financial incentives to work and labour market outcomes . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2. Increasing financial incentives to work with in-work benefits. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3. Key design features of in-work benefits . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .A. Ensuring that in-work benefit policies work and are cost-effective . . . . . . .B. Policy complementarities. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .C. Cost considerations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .126127128129136145148148157161162Annex 3.A1. Supplementary Material on Marginal Effective Tax Rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 169Chapter 4.Labour Market Programmes and Activation Strategies:Evaluating the Impacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 173Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Main findings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1. General ideas about different programmes and their impact . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .A. The nature of impact from activation programmes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .B. Administrative capacity and benefit levels influence the needfor activation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .C. Activation policies, effective labour supply and job creation:a virtuous circle? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2. Two examples of the impact of policies on labour market outcomes . . . . . . . . .A. Activation programmes in 2003 in New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .B. Motivation effects of benefits in France. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3. The size of programme impacts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .A. Job-search assistance and case management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .B. Vocational training and subsidised employment programmes . . . . . . . . . . .C. Strategies combining job search and programme participationas a package hold promise . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .D. Impacts on flows into unemployment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .E. Assessing overall impacts of activation strategies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4. Long-term impacts on employment and earnings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2044OECD EMPLOYMENT OUTLOOK – ISBN 92-64-01045-9 – OECD 2005

TABLE OF CONTENTSChapter 5.Public Employment Services: Managing Performance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 209Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Main findings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1. Historical experiences with the use of impact evaluation for PES governance . . . .2. General principles for performance management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .A. If the PES is decentralised, funding should be subject to performancemanagement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .B. The impact of active programmes should be evaluated by the PES . . . . . . .C. The PES should track employment outcomes and not only benefitcaseloads. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .D. Defining the value of client outcomes: B tW . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .E. More institutional conditions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .F. Making evaluation continuous . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3. Quasi-market and traditional organisation of employment services . . . . . . . . .A. Quasi-market organisation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .B. Traditional PES organisation and Management by Objectives (MBO) . . . . . .Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . raphy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 232Statistical Annex . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 235List of boxesChapter 11.1.1.2.1.3.1.4.1.5.1.6.Is international sourcing different? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Estimating the incidence and costs of trade displacement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Counting trade-displaced workers in the United States: lessons from five datasources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Three examples of wage insurance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA): a programme in constant evolution . . . . . .Two examples of sectoral programmes for trade-displaced workers . . . . . . . . . . . . . .333639555860Chapter 22.1.2.2.2.3.2.4.2.5.Measuring regional disparities in employment, migration and wages . . . . . . . . . . . . 77Do wages and workers’ mobility respond to regional labour market imbalances?. . . 92Migration, wages, and productivity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96To what extent are migration decisions related to the socio-economiccharacteristics of households? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98Decentralisation of employment policy in Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109Chapter 33.1.3.2.3.3.3.4.3.5.A taxonomy of benefit traps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Tax/benefit systems may contribute to explain work polarisation . . . . . . . . . . . . .The impact of financial incentives on labour supply decisions: incomeand substitution effects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Negative income taxes and work incentives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .The success of the US Earned Income Tax Credit in getting people into work . . .OECD EMPLOYMENT OUTLOOK – ISBN 92-64-01045-9 – OECD 20051291341361491515

TABLE OF CONTENTS3.6.Are time limits to the provision of in-work benefits effective? The experiencesof the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families in the United Statesand the Canadian Self-Sufficiency Project. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.7. Reform ideas: wage-based tax credits . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.8. Pros and cons of paying tax credits thought the wage package: evidencefrom the WFTC. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.9. Welfare reform in New Zealand: the Working for Families package. . . . . . . . . . . .3.10. Childcare provisions as part of an overall make-work-pay policy framework . . .153155157158160Chapter 44.1.4.2.4.3.4.4.Activation strategies and workfare . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .How does the impact of ALMPs vary across groups of jobseekers? . . . . . . . . . . . . .Pooled regression findings about “what works” . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Biases in estimating programme impact when motivation effects are ignored . . . . .177181184187Chapter 55.1.5.2.Variability of outcomes under quasi-market arrangements in Australiaand the United Kingdom . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 216Three methods for the evaluation of labour market programmes . . . . . . . . . . . . . 224List of tablesIntroduction0.1. Growth of real GDP in OECD countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.2. Employment and labour force growth in OECD countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.3. Unemployment in OECD countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.4. Business sector labour costs in OECD countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .17182021Chapter 11.1. Manufacturing workers are displaced more often than service workers,but evidence for a direct link between trade and job loss rates is mixed . . . . . . . . .1.2. Are trade-displaced workers different: a comparison for the United States,1979-1999. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.3. Are trade-displaced workers different: a comparison for 14 European countries,1994-2001. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.4. Many displaced workers find a new job in the same industry and doingso reduces earnings losses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.5. A partial taxonomy of measures for reducing labour-market adjustment costsfrom trade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3843454751Chapter 22.1. Evolution of regional disparities in labour market performance overthe past decade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.2. Regional employment outcomes and neighbouring effects, 1993-2003. . . . . . . . . . .2.3. Regional disparities in employment rates: supply or demand driven? . . . . . . . . . . .2.4.2.5.2.6.2.7.6818384Internal migration net flows by regional labour market performance, 1998-2003. . . . . 91Selected empirical studies on housing tenure, job mobility and unemployment . . . . . 100Policy incentives to home ownership in selected OECD countries. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101Conditions required for an unemployed to accept a job entailing commuting . . . . 106OECD EMPLOYMENT OUTLOOK – ISBN 92-64-01045-9 – OECD 2005

TABLE OF CONTENTSAnnex2.A1.1. Characteristics of the territorial units used for analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1142.A1.2. Data sources and definitions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117Chapter 33.1. What is the impact of METRs on employment outcomes? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1393.2. Employment-conditional benefits. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141Statistical AnnexA. Standardised unemployment rates in 27 OECD countries. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .B. Employment/population ratios, activity and unemployment rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . .C. Employment/population ratios, activity and unemployment ratesby selected age groups . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .D. Employment/population ratios, activity and unemployment ratesbyeducational attainment, 2003. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .E.F.G.H.Incidence and composition of part-time employment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Average annual hours actually worked per person in employment . . . . . . . . . . . . .Incidence of long-term unemployment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Public expenditure and participant inflows in labour market programmesin OECD countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .237238241250253255258262List of chartsChapter 11.1. OECD-wide trend towards increased international economic integrationco-exists with large cross-country differences in the size of trade and FDIrelative to GDP. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.2. International competition may be a factor restraining employment and wagesin some industries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.3. Aggregate employment performance is not systematically related to tradeopenness . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.4. The majority of workers displaced from manufacturing jobs find a new jobin manufacturing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.5. Globalisation has not implied lower public spending . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.6. Perceptions of employment security vary more strongly with labour marketpolicy than with trade openness . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .293132464950Chapter 22.1. Regional disparities in labour market performance, 2003 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.2. Regional disparities vary significantly across countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.3. Between-and within-country components of regional disparities acrossbroad geographic zones, 1993-2003 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.4. Regional employment problems are relatively persistent . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.5. To what extent are regional disparities in employment rates relatedto the average educational attainment of the regional working-age population? . . . .2.6. Agglomeration phenomena and regional disparities in employment rates . . . . . . . .2.7. Internal migration rates, 2003. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.8. Evolution of internal migration rates. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.9. Commuting rates in selected OECD countries, 2003 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .OECD EMPLOYMENT OUTLOOK – ISBN 92-64-01045-9 – OECD 20057879808286888990937

TABLE OF CONTENTS2.10. Youth and the highly-educated are the most mobile groups . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 942.11. Share of owner-occupied housing, 1980 and 2002/03 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 972.12. Transaction costs in housing markets in selected OECD countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102Chapter 33.1. How much of a 10% wage increase is taxed away? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.2. Is work financially attractive compared with unemployment and othernon-employment benefits? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.3. Reduced earnings prospects after unemployment may make work less attractive. . .3.4. Is work financially attractive for inactive people?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.5. Do inactive individuals have an incentive to move to part-time work?. . . . . . . . . .3.6. METRs and the labour market status of low-skilled individuals, 2002 . . . . . . . . . . .3.7. Effects of in-work benefits on unemployment traps, 2002. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.8. Effects of in-work benefits on low-wage traps, 2002 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.A1.1. Low-wage trap indicator, 2002 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.A1.2. METRs associated with the transition from part-time to full-time, 2002 . . . . . .3.A1.3. Unemployment trap indicator, 2002 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.A1.4. Inactivity trap indicator, 2002. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .130131132133133138146147165166167168Chapter 44.1. Annual percentage change in the number of jobseekers on unemploymentbenefit, New Zealand, 1997-2004 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.2. Monthly rate of entry to employment by duration of unemployment and for fourlevels of former earnings for people entitled to 14 months of unemploymentbenefits, France, 1986-1992 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.3. Composite effects of participation by unemployed people in ALMPson their relative employment rates, by number of days after entryto the programme, Switzerland, 1998 and 1999 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.4. Changes in patterns of transition from benefit to employment as rulesconcerning referrals to labour market programmes were changed in Denmark,1996 to 1998 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.5. Absolute and relative impacts on welfare caseloads by year after randomassignment to employment services, United States, mid-1990s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.6. Adults on welfare and persons on unemployment insurance,United States, 1960-2004 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8180180185186188190OECD EMPLOYMENT OUTLOOK – ISBN 92-64-01045-9 – OECD 2005

ISBN 92-64-01045-9OECD Employment Outlook OECD 2005EditorialGlobalisation: Coping with the ChallengeOECD EMPLOYMENT OUTLOOK – ISBN 92-64-01045-9 – OECD 20059

EDITORIAL – GLOBALISATION: COPING WITH THE CHALLENGEThe many faces of globalisation reflected in rising imports, outflows of foreign directinvestment (sometimes tied directly to offshoring of production) and inflows ofimmigrants, have contributed to rising job insecurity in many OECD countries recently.According to some commentators, globalisation is leading to significant job losses, not justin industry, but increasingly in some hitherto non-traded services, and exerting downwardpressure on the wages and working conditions of many OECD workers. When this iscombined with rapid technolog

OECD Employment Outlook OECD Employment . address the economic, social and environmental challenges of globalisation. The OECD is also at the forefront of efforts to understand and to help governments respond to new developments and concerns, such as corporate governance, the information economy and the challenges of an .

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