Changes In Poverty Rates And Poverty Areas Over Time: 2005 To 2019 - Census
Changes in Poverty Rates and Poverty AreasOver Time: 2005 to 2019American Community Survey BriefsBy Alemayehu Bishaw, Craig Benson, Emily Shrider, and Brian GlassmanIssued December 2020ACSBR-008INTRODUCTIONThe American Community Survey (ACS) is thenation’s most current, reliable, and accessible datasource for local statistics.1 Since 2010, the ACShas published estimates using 5 years of data forall geographic areas down to the census tract andblock-group levels. For the first time ever, these5-year estimates are available for three consecutivenonoverlapping periods (2005–2009, 2010–2014, and2015–2019), thus providing trend data for small population groups and geographies covering a combined15-year period. 2 This report uses the 2005–2009,the 2010–2014, and the 2015–2019 ACS 5-year estimates to study changes in county poverty rates andto examine the prevalence of poverty areas (definedas census tracts with poverty rates of 20 percent orhigher) and the changes in their spatial distributionacross this time period. 3HIGHLIGHTS The overall U.S. 5-year ACS poverty rate, encompassing the years of 2015–2019, was 13.4 percent.1The U.S. Census Bureau reviewed this data product forunauthorized disclosure of confidential information and hasapproved the disclosure avoidance practices applied to this release.CBDRB-FY21-POP001-0028.2Estimates presented here do not reflect the COVID-19pandemic and its potential impact. For more information aboutcomparing 5-year estimates, please see “Understanding and UsingAmerican Community Survey Data: What All Data Users Need toKnow,” at ooks/general.html .3To examine county poverty rates by Hispanic origin and race,see the interactive data visualization “Percentage of People inPoverty: 2015–2019” at acs-percentage-poverty-2015-2019.html .This was a decrease from 15.6 percent in the2010–2014 5-year period.4 The difference in the overall poverty rate between2005–2009 (13.5 percent) and 2015–2019 (13.4percent) was not statistically significant. Poverty rates increased in 429 counties anddecreased in 409 counties from 2005–2009 to2015–2019. The change in poverty rates was notstatistically significant in 2,300 counties. 5 Overall, from 2005–2009 to 2015–2019, the percentage of people in the United States living inpoverty areas decreased by 0.2 percentage points. The percentage of people living in poverty areasincreased in 25 states and decreased in 23 statesand the District of Columbia from 2005–2009 to2015–2019. The change was not statistically significant in two states.POVERTY MEASUREMENT IN THE ACSPoverty status is determined by comparing annualincome to a set of poverty thresholds that vary byfamily size, number of children, and the age of thehouseholder.6 If a family’s before-tax money incomeis less than the dollar value of its threshold, then thatfamily and every individual in it are considered to bein poverty. For people not living in families, povertystatus is determined by comparing the individual’s4All estimates in the brief are statistically significant at the 90percent confidence level, unless otherwise noted.5Due to county boundary changes that occurred within the2005–2009 and 2010–2014 periods, the following county equivalents were excluded from comparison: Petersburg, Alaska; Princeof Wales-Hyder, Alaska; Hoonah-Angoon, Alaska; Bedford, Virginia;and Bedford City, Virginia.6The poverty universe in 2005 does not include those living innoninstitutional group quarters (GQs).
income to his or her povertythreshold. The ACS is a continuous survey and people respondthroughout the year. Since incomeis reported for the previous 12months, the appropriate poverty threshold for each family isdetermined by multiplying thebase-year poverty threshold from1982 by the average of monthlyConsumer Price Index (CPI-U)values for the 12 months preceding the survey month. Thresholdsdo not vary geographically.Census tracts with poverty ratesgreater than or equal to 20percent (designated as “povertyareas” by the Census Bureau) areidentified by state, and examined for change over the givenperiods.7Researchers have found thatlow-income families living incommunities with high povertyconcentrations face a numberof challenges. Problems such aspoor housing conditions, limitedjob opportunities, and high crimerates are exacerbated when poorfamilies live clustered in highpoverty neighborhoods. 8 In recognition of these challenges, somegovernment programs targetresources to these high-povertyCensus tracts are small, relatively permanent statistical subdivisions of a countyor equivalent entity. Census tracts generallyhave a population size between 1,200 and8,000 people. For more information, see ossary.html#partextimage 13 .8For example, see “The EnduringChallenge of Concentrated Poverty inAmerica: Case Studies From CommunitiesAcross the U.S.A.,” a joint project of theCommunity Affairs Offices of the FederalReserve System and the MetropolitanPolicy Program at the Brookings Institution.(Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, 2008).What Is the American Community Survey?The American Community Survey (ACS) is an annual, nationwidesurvey designed to provide communities with reliable and timelysocial, economic, housing, and demographic data for the nation,states, congressional districts, counties, places, and other localities. It has an annual sample size of about 3.5 million addressesacross the United States and Puerto Rico and includes both housing units and group quarters (e.g., nursing facilities and prisons).1The ACS is conducted in every county throughout the nationand every municipio in Puerto Rico (the Puerto Rico CommunitySurvey).Beginning in 2006, ACS 1-year estimates have been releasedannually for geographic areas with populations of 65,000 andgreater. Beginning in 2010, ACS 5-year estimates have beenreleased annually for all geographies down to the block-grouplevel. Beginning in 2015, ACS 1-year Supplemental Estimates havebeen released annually for geographic areas with populations of20,000 and greater. The ACS 1-year and 5-year estimates are allperiod estimates that represent data collected within particularintervals of time—12 months and 60 months, respectively. Forinformation on the ACS, visit www.census.gov/acs .1Group quarters were added in 2006, the second year of full implementation. For more information, please see American Community Survey Design andMethodology located at sign-and-methodology.html . While people living in group quarters are sampledin the ACS, those living in institutional group quarters (e.g., nursing homes or correctional facilities) are not included in the poverty universe.neighborhoods. Many of theseprograms use the Census Bureau’sdefinition of “poverty areas” toidentify such neighborhoods.9729For example, see the DevelopmentalDisabilities Assistance and Bill of RightsAct Section 103(a). This act allows BasicState Grants projects whose activities orproducts target poverty areas to receiveas much as 90 percent in federal support. Also, see the New Market Tax Creditprogram, enacted in December 2000 aspart of the Community Renewal Tax ReliefAct, which defines eligibility as projects incensus tracts with a poverty rate of at least20 percent.RESULTSCounty Poverty RatesThe maps in this brief showchanges in 5-year ACS povertyrates for counties over differentperiods. Due to county boundary changes over time, changesin poverty are shown for 3,138 ofthe current 3,142 counties in theUnited States.U.S. Census Bureau
Figure 1.Change in Percentage of People in Poverty From 2005–2009to 2010–20140500 MilesChange by countySignificant increaseNo changeSignificant decreaseNo data available00100 Miles100 MilesNotes: A significant change is statistically different from zero at the 90 percent confidence level. Due to the county boundary changes that occurred withinthe 2005–2009 and 2010–2014 time periods, the following county equivalents appear in the "No data available" category: Petersburg, Alaska; Prince ofWales-Hyder, Alaska; Hoonah-Angoon, Alaska; Bedford, Virginia; and Bedford City, Virginia. For more information, see www.census.gov/acs .Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005–2009 and 2010–2014 American Community Surveys, 5-Year Estimates.Figure 1 shows counties that experienced an increase, decrease, orno statistically significant changein their poverty rates from the2005–2009 to 2010–2014 periods.From 2005–2009 to 2010–2014,the overall poverty rate in theUnited States increased from13.5 percent to 15.6 percent.During this time, the poverty rateU.S. Census Bureauincreased in 1,051 counties anddecreased in 136 counties. Thechange was not statistically significant in 1,951 counties.Figure 2 shows which counties experienced an increase,decrease, or no statistically significant change in their poverty ratesfrom the 2010–2014 to 2015–2019periods. From 2010–2014 to 2015–2019, the overall poverty ratein the United States decreasedfrom 15.6 percent to 13.4 percent.During this time, the povertyrate increased in 99 counties anddecreased in 1,072 counties. Thechange was not statistically significant in 1,967 counties.3
Figure 2.Change in Percentage of People in Poverty From 2010–2014to 2015–20190500 MilesChange by countySignificant increaseNo changeSignificant decreaseNo data available00100 Miles100 MilesNotes: A significant change is statistically different from zero at the 90 percent confidence level. Due to the county boundary changesthat occurred within the 2005–2009 and 2010–2014 time periods, the following county equivalents appear in the "No data available"category: Petersburg, Alaska; Prince of Wales-Hyder, Alaska; Hoonah-Angoon, Alaska; Bedford, Virginia; and Bedford City, Virginia.For more information, see www.census.gov/acs .Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010–2014 and 2015–2019 American Community Surveys, 5-Year Estimates.Figure 3 displays which counties experienced an increase,decrease, or no statistically significant change in their poverty ratesfrom the 2005–2009 to 2015–2019periods. From 2005–2009 to2015–2019, the change in the4overall poverty rate in the UnitedStates was not statistically significant. During this time, the povertyrate increased in 429 counties anddecreased in 409 counties. Thechange was not statistically significant in 2,300 counties. Theseestimates coincide with a dynamicperiod of economic contractionand expansion, spanning boththe Great Recession (December2007–June 2009) and the subsequent economic expansion.U.S. Census Bureau
Figure 3.Change in Percentage of People in Poverty From 2005–2009to 2015–20190500 MilesChange by countySignificant increaseNo changeSignificant decreaseNo data available00100 Miles100 MilesNotes: A significant change is statistically different from zero at the 90 percent confidence level. Due to the county boundary changesthat occurred within the 2005–2009 and 2010–2014 time periods, the following county equivalents appear in the "No data available"category: Petersburg, Alaska; Prince of Wales-Hyder, Alaska; Hoonah-Angoon, Alaska; Bedford, Virginia; and Bedford City, Virginia.For more information, see www.census.gov/acs .Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005–2009 and 2015–2019 American Community Surveys, 5-Year Estimates.Poverty AreasTable 1 shows the percentage ofpeople in the poverty universe10living in poverty areas, definedas census tracts with a povertyrate of at least 20 percent, in thePoverty status is determined forindividuals in housing units and noninstitutional group quarters. The poverty universeexcludes children under the age of 15 whoare not related to the householder, peopleliving in institutional group quarters (e.g.,nursing homes or correctional facilities),and people living in college dormitories ormilitary barracks.10U.S. Census BureauUnited States and in each stateand the District of Columbia for2005–2009, 2010–2014, and2015–2019. Table 1 also shows thepercentage-point change in theshare of people living in povertyareas between periods.In the 2005–2009 period, 21.3percent of the U.S. populationlived in poverty areas. This shareincreased by 6.4 percentagepoints (to 27.7 percent) in the2010–2014 period and declinedto 21.1 percent in the 2015–2019period. From 2005–2009 to 2015–2019, the percentage of people inthe United States living in povertyareas decreased by 0.2 percentage points.From 2005–2009 to 2015–2019,the percentage of people livingin poverty areas increased in 25states and decreased in 23 statesand the District of Columbia. Thechange was not statistically significant in two states.5
Table 1.Percentage of People Living in Poverty Areas1 by State: 2005–2019(Universe: People for whom poverty status is determined.² For information on confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error, anddefinitions, see mentation/code-lists.html )Percentage-point 2014 less2005–20092015–2019 less2010–20142015–2019 ( )3 Percent( )3 Percent( )3 Percent( )3 Percent( )3 Percent( )3United States . .21.3Z27.7Z21.1Z*6.4Z*–6.6Z*–0.2ZAlabama . . . . . . . . . . . .Alaska. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Arizona . . . . . . . . . . . . .Arkansas . . . . . . . . . . . .California . . . . . . . . . . . .Colorado . . . . . . . . . . . .Connecticut . . . . . . . . .Delaware . . . . . . . . . . . .District of Columbia . .Florida . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Georgia . . . . . . . . . . . . .Hawaii. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Idaho . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Illinois . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Indiana . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Iowa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Kansas . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Kentucky . . . . . . . . . . . .Louisiana . . . . . . . . . . . .Maine . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Maryland . . . . . . . . . . . .Massachusetts . . . . . . .Michigan . . . . . . . . . . . .Minnesota . . . . . . . . . . .Mississippi . . . . . . . . . . .Missouri . . . . . . . . . . . . .Montana . . . . . . . . . . . . .Nebraska . . . . . . . . . . . .Nevada . . . . . . . . . . . . . .New Hampshire . . . . . .New Jersey . . . . . . . . . .New Mexico. . . . . . . . . .New York . . . . . . . . . . . .North Carolina . . . . . . .North Dakota . . . . . . . .Ohio . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Oklahoma . . . . . . . . . . .Oregon . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Pennsylvania . . . . . . . . .Rhode Island . . . . . . . . .South Carolina . . . . . . .South Dakota . . . . . . . .Tennessee . . . . . . . . . . .Texas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Utah . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Vermont . . . . . . . . . . . . .Virginia . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Washington . . . . . . . . . .West Virginia . . . . . . . .Wisconsin . . . . . . . . . . .Wyoming . . . . . . . . . . . .10.10.30.10.30.10.10.10.20.10.10.30.10.4* Statistically different from zero at the 90 percent confidence level.Z Represents or rounds to zero.1Census tracts with poverty rate of 20 percent or more are considered as poverty areas.2Poverty status is determined for individuals in housing units and noninstitutional group quarters. The poverty universe excludes children under theage of 15 who are not related to the householder, people living in institutional group quarters (e.g., nursing homes or correctional facilities), and peopleliving in college dormitories or military barracks.3Data are based on a sample and are subject to sampling variability. A margin of error is a measure of an estimate’s variability. The larger the marginof error in relation to the size of the estimate, the less reliable the estimate. This number when added to or subtracted from the estimate forms the 90percent confidence interval.Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005–2009, 2010–2014, and 2015–2019 American Community Surveys, 5-Year Estimates.6U.S. Census Bureau
In the 2005–2009 period, theshare of a state’s population thatlived in a poverty area rangedfrom a low of 4.7 percent in NewHampshire to a high of 46.2 percent in Mississippi. In eight statesand the District of Columbia, thepercentage of people living inpoverty areas was at least 30 percent. In seven states, less than 10percent of the population lived inpoverty areas.In the 2010–2014 period, 27.7 percent of the U.S. population lived inpoverty areas, though this rangedfrom a low of 7.2 percent in NewHampshire to a high of 51.7 percent in Mississippi. The percentageof people living in poverty areaswas at least 30 percent in 17 statesand the District of Columbia; itwas over 40 percent in four states.The percentage of the populationliving in poverty areas was under10 percent in only one state (NewHampshire).In the 2015–2019 period, 21.1percent of the U.S. populationlived in poverty areas. This percentage ranged from a low of 5.2percent in New Hampshire to ahigh of 42.4 percent in Mississippi.In seven states and the Districtof Columbia, the percentage ofpeople living in poverty areaswas at least 30 percent, while thepercentage of people living inpoverty areas was at least 40 percent in two states. In seven states,the percentage of the populationliving in poverty areas was 10 percent or less.U.S. Census BureauCONCLUSIONThis report uses the 2005–2009,the 2010–2014, and the 2015–2019ACS 5-year estimates to examine the county poverty rates andthe prevalence of poverty areasacross this time period. From2005–2009 to 2010–2014, theoverall poverty rate in the UnitedStates increased from 13.5 percentto 15.6 percent. From 2010–2014to 2015–2019 the overall povertyrate in the United States fell to13.4 percent, not statistically different from the 13.5 percent rate in2005–2009. From 2005–2009 to2015–2019, a period that spannedboth the Great Recession and thesubsequent economic expansion,the poverty rate increased in 429counties and decreased in 409counties.In the 2015–2019 ACS 5-yearestimates, 21.1 percent of thepopulation lived in census tractswith poverty rates of 20 percent or higher. From 2005–2009to 2015–2019, the percentage of people living in povertyareas increased in 25 states anddecreased in 23 states and theDistrict of Columbia. The changewas not statistically significant intwo states.The estimates presented in thisreport highlight the usefulnessof ACS data. They demonstratehow data from three nonoverlapping periods can be compared tofurther the understanding of poverty during a period of economicchange. While this brief examinesone element of change across thisperiod, these data can be usedto address many other questionsabout the economic and socialnuances of the past 15 years.Instructions on how to accessmore ACS and poverty data toexamine those questions appearat the end of this report.SOURCE AND ACCURACYThe data presented in this reportare based on the ACS sampleinterviewed each year fromJanuary 2005 through December2019. The estimates based onthese samples describe the person, household, and housing unitcharacteristics over each 5-yearperiod of data collection (2005–2009, 2010–2014, and 2015–2019).The ACS estimates are subject toboth sampling and nonsamplingerror. Sampling error is the uncertainty between an estimate basedon a sample and the corresponding value that would be obtainedif the estimate were based onthe entire population (as from acensus). Measures of samplingerror are provided in the form ofmargins of error for all estimatesincluded in this report. All comparative statements in this reporthave undergone statistical testing,and comparisons are significantat the 90 percent confidence levelunless otherwise noted.In addition to sampling error, nonsampling error may be introducedduring any of the operations usedto collect and process surveydata such as editing, reviewing,7
or keying data from questionnaires. For more information onsampling and estimation methods,confidentiality protection, andsampling and nonsampling errors,please see the 2019 ACS Accuracyof the Data document located at mentation/code-lists.html .When comparing ACS estimatesover time, it is necessary to consider changes to content, methodology, or geographic definitions. For more information aboutcomparing ACS data across yearsor with a decennial census, pleasesee “Comparing ACS Data” at ring-acs-data.html .8HOW TO ACCESS AMERICANCOMMUNITY SURVEY DATAHOW TO ACCESSADDITIONAL POVERTY DATAAll ACS data products arereleased on the U.S. CensusBureau’s primary datadissemination and digitalcontent platform located at https://data.census.gov .Additional poverty estimates,publications, working papers,visualizations, and data fromother surveys can be found at www.census.gov/topics/income-poverty/poverty.html .An additional method forobtaining ACS data is through theCensus Bureau’s application programming interface (API),visit www.census.gov/developers/ . This tool providesthe public with maximum flexibility to query data directly fromCensus Bureau servers.U.S. Census Bureau
2015-2019. The change in poverty rates was not statistically significant in 2,300 counties. 5 Overall, from 2005-2009 to 2015-2019, the per-centage of people in the United States living in poverty areas decreased by 0.2 percentage points. The percentage of people living in poverty areas increased in 25 states and decreased in 23 .
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