Vietnam: Deepening International Integration And Implementing The Evfta

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Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedVIETNAM: DEEPENING INTERNATIONAL INTEGRATIONAND IMPLEMENTING THE EVFTAMay 2020Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure Authorized

VIETNAM: DEEPENING INTERNATIONALINTEGRATION AND IMPLEMENTING THE EVFTAMay 2020

@2020 The World Bank1818 H Street NW, Washington DC 20433Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.orgThis work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretationsand conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board ofExecutive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank do not guarantee the accuracy ofthe data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations and other information shown on anymap in this work do not imply any judgement on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status ofany territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.Nothing herein shall constitute or be considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges andimmunities of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved.All queries on rights and licenses shoud be addressed to the Publishing and Knowledge Division, The WorldBank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; email: pubrights@worldbank.org.Cover print: The estuary of Faifo River flowing to Turon Bay in late 18th century.Source: John Barrow. “A voyage to Cochinchina in the years 1792 and 1793”. Chapter XVIII, 447 p. London. 1806.The annexed cover print depicts foreign merchants in the 18th century travelling on Faifo River, which runs intoTuron Bay. Faifo and Turon, now known as Hoi An Town and Da Nang City, were named by Europeans upontheir arrival in Vietnam. The painting reflects Vietnam’s openness to foreign trade since the early days.

COUNTRY CODES.9EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.11CHAPTER 1. VIETNAM, GLOBAL INTEGRATION, AND THE EVFTA.151.1. Determination in international integration.161.2. Background on the EVFTA.191.3. Key issues in the trade relationship between Vietnam and the European Union.211.4. Key benefits and risks of joining the EVFTA.241.5. The EVFTA in the context of COVID-19.25CHAPTER 2. ECONOMIC AND DISTRIBUTIONAL IMPACTS OF THE EVFTA.292.1. Methodology.302.1.1. The Model.302.1.2. Caveats.312.1.3. Policy scenario.322.2. Results.332.2.1. Macroeconomic results.332.2.2. Poverty and distributional impacts.352.3. Conclusion.38CHAPTER 3. LEGAL GAP ASSESSMENT FOR VIETNAM’S IMPLEMENTATIONOF THE EVFTA.393.1. Overview.403.2. Outcome of the legal gap analysis between the EVFTA and Vietnamesedomestic laws.41CHAPTER 4. THE EVFTA – KEY IMPLEMENTATION ISSUES.524.1. Maximizing benefits from preferred tariff reduction by complying withrules of origin.544.2. Non-tariff measures: SPS and food safety.584.3. Coping with FDI: The Systemic Investment Response Mechanism andinvestor-state dispute settlement.624.4. Taking advantage of the EVFTA after COVID-19.65REFERENCES.67Vietnam: Deepening International Integration and Implementing the EVFTA3

BoxesBox 1.1.Box 1.2.Box 1.3.Box 4.1.Box 4.2.Box 4.3.The EVFTA: Key milestones.20The impact of the China-U.S. Trade Agreement.26COVID-19 impact on the EU market.28Free Trade Agreement Portal.57Vietnam Trade Information Portal (VTIP).61Systemic Investment Response Mechanism task force activities.64FiguresFigure 1.1.Figure 1.2.Figure 1.3.Figure 1.4.Figure 1.5.Figure 1.6.Figure 1.7.Figure 1.8.Figure 1.9.Figure B1.2.1.Figure B1.2.2.Figure B1.2.3.Figure B1.2.4.Figure 2.1.Figure 2.2.4Export and GDP growth, 2000–18.16Number of products and markets, Vietnam and peer countries,2001 compared to 2017.17High-tech exports as percentage of manufactured exports,2008–17.18Diverging public views on trade.18Vietnam–EU: Stable trade relationship.21Potential for improving bilateral trade performance.22Vietnam’s trade balance with European Union.22Sectoral trade relationship.23Vietnam’s value added (VA) as share of exports to the EUcompared to the world.24Impacts of the managed trade scenario compared to the tradepolicy status quo scenario for East Asian developing countries(percent).27Impact of the “multilateral liberalization” scenario comparedto the “managed trade” scenario for East Asian developingcountries (percent).27Impact of COVID-19 on EU GDP growth in 2020, by transmissionchannels (percent).28Estimated impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the EU economyby 2021.28Trade restrictions faced by Vietnam from EU partners, EVFTAscenario (%).33Trade restrictions imposed by Vietnam on EU partners, EVFTAscenario (%).33Vietnam: Deepening International Integration and Implementing the EVFTA

Figure 2.3.Figure 2.4.Figure 2.5.Figure 2.6.Figure 2.7.Figure 2.8.Figure 2.9.Figure 2.10.Figure 4.1.Figure 4.2.Figure 4.3.Figure 4.4.Figure 4.5.Figure 4.6.Macroeconomic impact of the EVFTA on the Vietnamese economyby 2030 (% deviations with respect to baseline).33Macroeconomic impact of the CPTPP and EVFTA on the Vietnameseeconomy by 2030, standard productivity.34Income distribution in Vietnam under baseline conditions,2015 and 2030.36Poverty headcount ratio (%) in Vietnam under the EVFTA.36People lifted from poverty due to the EVFTA, standardproductivity.36Gender gap in 2017 and 2030, EVFTA scenario with standardproductivity.37Gender gap effects with respect to the baseline, EVFTA scenariowith standard productivity.37Growth incidence curves for the EVFTA, standard productivityassumptions.37Foreign value added compared to domestic value added.54Value added in garments and footwear.54Value added in electronics.54Structure of NTMs in Vietnam.58AVE for SPS: Vietnam compared to ASEAN countries.59Top 10 exports from Vietnam to the EU market, 2014–19.65TableTable 2.1.Vietnamese and foreign tariffs and non-tariff measure ad-valoremequivalents (trade weighted) before and after EVFTA – for tradingpartners, (%).32Vietnam: Deepening International Integration and Implementing the EVFTA5

ForewordFollowing from Vietnam’s ratification of the Comprehensive and ProgressiveAgreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) in late 2018 and its effectivenessfrom January 2019, and the European Parliament’s recent approval of the EuropeanUnion-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA) and its subsequent planned ratificationby the National Assembly in May 2020, Vietnam has further demonstrated itsdetermination to be a modern, competitive, open economy. As the COVID-19 crisishas clearly shown, diversified markets and supply chains will be key in the futureglobal context to managing the risk of disruptions in trade and in supply chainsdue to changing trade relationships, climate change, natural disasters, and diseaseoutbreaks. In those regards, Vietnam is in a stronger position than most countries inthe region.The benefits of globalization are increasingly being debated and questioned. However,in the case of Vietnam, the benefits have been clear in terms of high and consistenteconomic growth and a large reduction in poverty levels. As Vietnam moves toratify and implement a new generation of free trade agreements (FTAs), such as theCPTPP and EVFTA, it is important to clearly demonstrate, in a transparent manner,the economic gains and distributional impacts (such as sectoral and poverty) fromjoining these FTAs. In the meantime, it is crucial to highlight the legal gaps that mustbe addressed to ensure that national laws and regulations are in compliance withVietnam’s obligations under these FTAs. Readiness to implement this new generationof FTAs at both the national and subnational level is important to ensure that thecountry maximizes the full economic benefits in terms of trade and investment.This report, “Vietnam: Deepening International Integration and Implementing theEVFTA,” explores the issues of globalization and the integration of Vietnam into theglobal economy, particularly through implementation of the EVFTA. We would like tothank the key government stakeholders that have contributed to the report, whichinclude the Ministry of Industry and Trade, the Ministry of Planning and Investment,and the Ministry of Justice. We are grateful to the World Bank’s Umbrella Trust Fundfor Trade for funding the report.Tran Tuan AnhMinisterMinistry of Industry and Trade6Ousmane DioneCountry DirectorThe World Bank in VietnamVietnam: Deepening International Integration and Implementing the EVFTA

AcknowledgmentsThis report was prepared by a World Bank team comprising Duc Minh Pham(Senior Economist), Brian Mtonya (Senior Economist), Maryla Maliszewska (SeniorEconomist), Israel Osorio-Rodarte (Senior Economist), Maria Filipa Seara e Pereira(Senior Economist), and Dongwook Chon (Senior Economist), with contributionsfrom Jacques Morisset (Lead Economist), Zoryana Olekseyuk (Senior Economist),Nguyen Thi Xuan Thuy (Consultant), and Pham Hong Van (Private Sector DevelopmentSpecialist).The report was prepared under the general guidance of Ousmane Dionne (CountryDirector for Vietnam), Hassan Zaman (Regional Director; Equitable Growth, Financeand Institutions; East Asia Pacific Region), and Deepak Mishra (Practice Manager;Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment; East Asia Pacific Region). Peer reviewerswere Richard Record (Lead Economist), Massimiliano Cali (Senior Economist), Mr.Luong Hoang Thai, Director General, Department of Multilateral Trade Policy, Ministryof Industry and Trade; and Mr. Tran Toan Thang (Head of Trade Unit, National Centerfor Information and Forecasts, Ministry of Planning and Investment). Commentswere also received from Viet Tuan Dinh (Senior Economist). Diane Stamm edited thereport, Le Thi Khanh Linh provided administrative assistance, and Ngan Hong Nguyenand Anh Thi Quynh Le provided communication support.Vietnam: Deepening International Integration and Implementing the EVFTA7

AbbreviationsASEANAssociation of Southeast Asian NationsCGE modelcomputable general equilibrium modelCOVID-19Coronavirus diseaseCPTPPComprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific PartnershipEVFTAEuropean Union-Vietnam Free Trade AgreementEVIPAInvestment Protection AgreementFDIforeign direct investmentFTAPFree Trade Agreement PortalFTAsfree trade agreementsGDPgross domestic productGIDDGlobal Income Distribution DynamicsGVCsglobal value chainsICTinformation and communications technologyILOInternational Labor OrganizationLPILogistics Performance IndexNTMsnon-tariff measuresOECDOrganization for Economic Co-operation and DevelopmentPPPpurchasing power parityQIquality infrastructureSIRMSystemic Investment Response MechanismSMEssmall and medium-sized enterprisesSOEsstate-owned enterprisesSPSsanitary and phytosanitaryTiVA database WTO Trade in Value-Added databaseTPPTrans-Pacific PartnershipUNECEUnited Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUNESCAPUnited Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the PacificVietnam SPS Vietnam Sanitary and Phyto-sanitary Notification Authority and EnquiryPointWTO8World Trade OrganizationVietnam: Deepening International Integration and Implementing the EVFTA

Country ian ited KingdomSLVEl andaJORJordanUKRUkraineJPNJapanUSAUnited icoVTNVietnamMMRMyanmarWLDWorldMYSMalaysiaZAFSouth AfricaVietnam: Deepening International Integration and Implementing the EVFTA9

EXECUTIVE SUMMARYGlobal integration has been one of the key drivers of Vietnam’s remarkableachievements in growth and poverty reduction over the past three decades,in tandem with the Doi Moi reforms. Vietnam has benefited not only from rapidgrowth in and diversification of exports, but also from the technology embodiedin trade. Trade openness continues to be viewed as beneficial in Vietnam, despitetrends of deglobalization and rising trade tensions. Following the implementationof the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), Vietnam ispreparing to implement the Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA).The EVFTA is the largest new-generation free trade agreement in the country’shistory in terms of direct benefits for Vietnam. Its gross domestic product (GDP)impact is almost three times larger than that of the CPTPP. The European Union (EU)is one of Vietnam’s most important and stable trading partners. Vietnam’s exportsto the EU have steadily grown at an average annual rate of 16 percent, and Vietnamhas gained a trade surplus with the EU over the past two decades. Implementing theEVFTA will help improve bilateral trade with the EU, sustain strong trade performance,and support strengthening Vietnam’s key global value chains, among other things.More importantly, crucial changes in the economic structure and institutions as aresult of implementation of the EVFTA and CPTPP will assist in deepening domesticreforms and help Vietnam become a more competitive and innovative economy.The EVFTA will bring significant immediate benefits to the Vietnamese economythrough higher growth, greater trade, and faster poverty reduction. Fullimplementation of the EVFTA could increase Vietnam’s GDP by 2.4 percent, boostexports by 12 percent, and lift an additional 0.1 million to 0.8 million people outof poverty by 2030. It will also potentially help close the gender wage gap by0.15 percentage points, particularly for households in the bottom 40 percent ofincome distribution. Further, if Vietnam simultaneously implements the EVFTA andCPTPP, its GDP could increase by up to 3.2 percent in the next decade. In additionto implementing trade agreements, if Vietnam adopts complementary domesticreforms to raise productivity, its GDP could increase further by 6.8 percent by 2030—4 percentage points more than the income gains from the EVFTA alone.The EVFTA coupled with the CPTPP could strongly motivate and acceleratedomestic reforms that go beyond the scope of the “trade” issues in the agreements.Among other things, the EVFTA will help promote competition, cooperation, andcapacity building; and stimulate the development of services, including financial10Vietnam: Deepening International Integration and Implementing the EVFTA

services, telecommunications, and temporary entry of service providers, such ascustoms, logistics, and e-commerce. Many EVFTA provisions will also stimulateinstitutional reforms to strengthen and standardize rules, promote transparency,and support the creation of modern institutions in Vietnam, especially in areasof the environment, government procurement, intellectual property, investment,labor standards, legal issues, rules of origin, and non-tariff measures. Of particularimportance for Vietnam, the state-owned enterprise (SOE) provisions under theCPTPP and EVFTA are expected to support structural adjustments in Vietnam towarda fair and balanced market-based economy and a level playing field.Deeper integration would help Vietnam better cope with and recover more quicklyfrom global shocks such as the current COVID-19 pandemic. The World Bank’sApril 2020 East Asia and Pacific Economic Update projected that Vietnam, givenits stronger resilience, is among the few countries that could experience a positivegrowth rate in all scenarios, though lower than in 2019. This is a good reason forVietnam to continue an open trade policy in response to the pandemic and to avoidfuture trade tensions. Thus, the full implementation of deep trade agreements suchas the EVFTA could help boost production, trade, and investment, and thus facilitatea faster recovery in Vietnam in the post-COVID-19 era. The EU market appears tobe one of the most affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, and demand will recoverslowly. This prospect could hamper the EVFTA’s positive impacts in the short term.This is shown by the fact that the growth of Vietnam’s merchandise exports to theEU-28 for the first quarter of 2020 declined 5.1 percent (year-on-year).The legal gap assessment that has been conducted as part of this report is expectedto support the Vietnam National Assembly’s ratification of the EVFTA in itsupcoming session in May 2020, and will inform government agencies’ preparationof a clear roadmap for its implementation. The EVFTA legal gap assessmentshows that Vietnam’s domestic laws are mostly in compliance with its obligationsunder the EVFTA and that the country is ready to implement the agreement. Thereare a few laws and regulations that need to be addressed, and these have beenclearly identified in the legal gap assessment for revision. Vietnam has benefitedfrom the CPTPP ratification process and revision of domestic laws, as most of theEVFTA provisions are compatible with those of the CPTPP. However, there are somecommitment levels that are wider and higher than any other FTAs that Vietnam hassigned, including with the World Trade Organization and the Association of SoutheastAsian Nations (ASEAN).Delivering global integration commitments, particularly under the EVFTA, meansimplementing a comprehensive and decisive domestic reform program, which is achallenging process. Given the limited length of this report, four key challenges wereVietnam: Deepening International Integration and Implementing the EVFTA11

chosen for discussion. First, the challenge dealing with rules of origin is reflectedin the strict thresholds in terms of both minimum domestic origin and maximumnon-EU originating materials (among other things) that Vietnam’s exports will needto meet in order to enjoy the EU preferential tariff schedule. Second, Vietnam’sexports, especially agricultural products, will be required to meet high quality andrigorous sanitary and phytosanitary standards. This is critical for an economy likeVietnam, where agriculture plays a significant role. Third, the EVFTA will boost foreigndirect investment (FDI); however, a key challenge facing Vietnam is to manage anincreasing number of commercial grievances caused by disputes between investorsand the state and to comply with investment protection articles regulated under theInvestment Protection Agreement (EVIPA). Finally, the pandemic could have strongimplications on policy responses if Vietnam wants to take advantage of the EVFTApost-COVID-19.Complying with rules of origin and sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) requirementsis among the most challenging implementation issues in maximizing EVFTAbenefits. Vietnam’s simple manufacturing assembly engagement in global valuechains and the high dependence of its key exports on imported materials, especiallyfrom non-EU members, is the main barrier preventing Vietnamese firms from takingfull advantage of tariff reductions, and this situation will need to improve. Regulationsfor non-tariff measures (NTMs) in general and SPS measures, in particular, remaincomplicated, which makes NTM cost incidence in Vietnam higher than in most ofother ASEAN countries—a factor limiting Vietnam’s trade capacity in general, andpotential gains from the EVFTA, in particular. Efforts should also be made to copewith increased flows of FDI as a result of EVFTA implementation. Among the keyrecommendations discussed in this report are an integrated approach to developingefficient transport corridors based on value-chain spatial structure, and applyingmore transparent and predictable border procedures and non-tariff measures, animproved logistics regulatory environment to facilitate a general reduction in tradecosts, and introducing a more liberal stance on FDI and a systemic investmentresponse mechanism.Post-COVID-19 recovery efforts should be made in all export-oriented industries,but priority should be given to key sectors reported as recent top Vietnameseexports to the EU market in order to take advantage of EVFTA implementation.Firms are the principal agent in this effort, but the government should make it apriority to support exports to the EU market. Business associations should play acritical role in raising the awareness of firms about the benefits of the EVFTA and inproviding legal guidance for taking advantage of the EVFTA.12Vietnam: Deepening International Integration and Implementing the EVFTA

Policy responses should address the COVID-19 consequences in a longer term,as well. In the longer term, the combined impacts of COVID-19 and trade tensionscould lead to a deep restructuring of global value chains (GVCs). GVCs tends to beless dependent on some global production centers, such as China, paving a wayfor Vietnam to step in to fill supply chain gaps. Global supply chains could also beshorter, with a fewer number of countries engaging. For some circumstances underthe increasing unilateralism and bilateralism, lead firms could to bring all or some oftheir suppliers back home or to bilaterally beneficial countries. This phenomenonmight create unhealthy and more severe competition at the global level. GVCstructure could change from less backward to more forward integration. Vietnamcould maximize benefits and minimize risks from this process if it can best repositionthe country in the post-COVID-19 era. This requires stronger and proactive policyresponses so that Vietnam can build more sophisticated production capacity andincrease exports toward more value-added and high-tech prioritization.In the long term, trade facilitation is a game changer, and Vietnam should turn theCOVID-19 challenges into an opportunity to stimulate appropriate reforms. Keypolicy actions are appropriate and include:i. Applying risk-based management for managing volunteer compliance andshifting to post-clearance inspectionsii. Applying information technology in inspections of export and importgoods and transits, ensuring uniform information connection betweenstate management agencies (specialized inspection units and the GeneralDepartment of Customs)iii. Effectively implementing the National Single Window and the ASEAN SingleWindowiv. Promoting transparency in all specialized inspection agencies by issuing aproduct list with Harmonized System (HS) codes assigned for specializedinspection goodsv. Reducing logistics costs by reducing toll fees and digitalizing their collection,rationalizing trade-related transport and logistics infrastructure toward betterconnecting value chains, and promoting multimodality.An effective mechanism to handle and supervise the implementation of appropriateformulated policies should be in place to improve interagency coordination for tradefacilitation and global integration.Vietnam: Deepening International Integration and Implementing the EVFTA13

1ChapterVIETNAM, GLOBAL INTEGRATION,AND THE EVFTA11This chapter was prepared by Duc Minh Pham.

Global integration has been one of the key drivers of Vietnam’s remarkable achievementsin growth and poverty reduction over the past three decades. Vietnam has benefitednot only from rapid growth in exports, but also from the technology embodied intrade. Trade openness continues to be viewed as beneficial in Vietnam, despitetrends of deglobalization and rising trade tensions. Followingthe TION,ANDTHEEVFTAComprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), Vietnamis preparing to implement the Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA), the largestl integration new-generationhas been one offreethetradekey driversof Vietnam’sremarkableagreementin the country’shistoryachievementsin terms of benefits ford poverty reductionoverthepastthreedecades,intandemDoi MoiVietnam. The European Union (EU) is one of Vietnam’swithmosttheimportantand stablenam has omthetrading partners. Implementing the EVFTA will help improve bilateral trade with thembodied in trade.Trade strongopennesscontinuesto be viewedas beneficialin Vietnam,EU, sustaintradeperformance,and supportstrengtheningVietnam’s keys of implementationofthe in theglobal value chains, among other things. More importantly, crucial changesve and ProgressiveVietnamis preparingeconomicTrans-Pacificstructure and Partnershipinstitutions as(CPTPP),a result ofimplementationof the toEVFTA ande Vietnam freetradeCPTPP should deepen domestic reforms and help Vietnam become a more competitivethe country’sandhistoryin termsof benefits for Vietnam. The European Union (EU) isinnovativeeconomy.m’s most important and stable trading partners. Implementing the EVFTA will helpteral trade with the EU, sustain strong trade performance, and supportg Vietnam’s keyvalue chains, amongother things. Moreimportantly, crucial1.1.globalDeterminationin internationalintegratione economic structure and institutions as a result of implementation of the EVFTAwill assist inOverdeepeningreformsVietnamand helpbecomea amorethe pastdomesticthree decades,has Vietnamevolved frombeingfully closedto being one of the most open economies in the world. As a result of itsnd innovativeeconomyeconomy.global integration gains, Vietnam’s ratio of trade to gross domestic product (GDP)exceeded 200percent in 2018, among the highest of Association of Southeast Asianmination in internationalintegrationAverage annual export growth rate (%)FigureExport2000–18and GDP growth, 2000–18the past threeFigure 1.1. Export andGDP1.1.growth,nam has evolved10.0a fully closedVietnam8.0being one of they 0.2098x 2.1708conomies in theR² 0.21186.0esult of its global4.0gains, Vietnam’s2.0rade to gr

Vietnam: Deepening International Integration and Implementing the EVFTA 7 This report was prepared by a World Bank team comprising Duc Minh Pham (Senior Economist), Brian Mtonya (Senior Economist), Maryla Maliszewska (Senior Economist), Israel Osorio-Rodarte (Senior Economist), Maria Filipa Seara e Pereira

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