Panama Canal: Redifining World Trade
The Expanded Panama Canal Were the forecasts correct? Esteban G. Sáenz VP Transit Business Panama Canal: Redifining World Trade Good morning and thank you for the invitation to share with you some reflections about the Panama Canal and the road towards the decision to engage in this wonderful adventure of expanding our waterway. First, let me introduce to you Ms. Ilya Espino Marotta, vicepresident of Engineering and Services and next vicepresident of Transit Business starting february 6. She was in charge of completing the Canal Expansion and now will be tasked with its operation. 1
AGENDA Panama Canal: the expansion Project Our original forecasts vs actual performance What is next? The world was a very different place back in 2003 when we developed the traffic demand forecast that supported the expansión Program of the Panama Canal, so I will begin by explaining the 2
The Panama Canal is Key to Seaborne Trade 1915 – 2018 Transits: 1,094,562 Cargo Volume: 10,311,521,995 LT The Panama Canal has been a key commercial route since its inauguration in 1914. Through the years, it was witnessed over a million transits and more than 10.3 billion tons of cargo has moved across. The relevance of the Panama route was endangered at the beginning of the century as the waterway approached its maximum capacity and container vessels started a race towards larger than Panamax size and more efficient technologies. 3
Panama Canal’s share of global seaborne trade 3.0% of world maritime trade 18.0% of LPG 6.3% of grains 5.4% of petroleum products 3.4% of chemicals 3.1% of containers 2.5% of LNG Currently, the Panama Canal handles 3% of world maritime trade. Due to its geographical location, it is more beneficial for certain types of cargo. For example, around 6.3% of world maritime trade of grains transit through the Canal. This is due to the fact that the US is one of the largest grain exporters in the world, and most of the tonnage exported has destinations in Asia, so the Canal route is one of the most advantageous. The Panama Canal also handles 3.4% of the world maritime trade of chemical products and 3.1% of containers. 4
Connectivity Panama: Logistics Hub and Transportation of the Americas Reaching the Maximum Potential from our Geographic Location Panama’s maritime hub: 144 trade routes Over 1,700 ports In more than 160 countries Panama’s air hub: 85 direct destinations in America and Europe 35 countries The well known connectivity that the Panama Canal provide, enabling over 144 maritime routes linking more that 1,700 ports in 160 countries around the world, was strengthened by the newly acquired economies of scale. 5
The Panama Canal Hub It is all about reliability, connectivity and value added services Savannah, Charleston, Norfolk Houston ASIA 3-4 days Caucedo (Dominican Rep) Kingston (Jamaica) 1-2 days Lazaro Cardenas (México) Cartagena (Colombia) 3-4 days Less than 1 day 73% of container vessels that transit the Panama Canal call local ports PANAMA Aprox 18 to 20 days at 18 knots Callao (Perú) 3-4 days Santos (Brasil) San Antonio (Chile) 10-11 days 5-6 days 6
Our Promise to the World Economies of Scale Connectivity Sustainability Reliability Our service offer to shippers and shipping lines is based on three main aspects: reliability, sustainability and connectivity. . 7
But when I say that vessels have grown, sometimes people don’t realize the magnitude of these words that’s why I like to show pictures to illustrate this fact. 8
Maximum Capacity of the Improved Canal Demand that will not be captured due to lack of capacity This trend toward larger vessels, together with the Canal approaching its maximum capacity triggered the need to expand the waterway through the construction of an additional set of locks, larger in size than the existing one. The graph shown here illustrates the situation in 2005. The demand for transit had grown to 280 million PC/UMS tons; the blue staircase represents the additional capacity that could be added by the investment to enhance the existing navigational channels, improve lightning and other features that could take us to the expected demand in 2011-2012, about 330-340 million tons. After that, there was nothing else to be done to improve capacity, unless a major investment was done. The yellow triangle portrays the future demand estimated through 2025 that could not be handled due to capacity constraints. It became evident that something major was needed to be done. 9
Projections that Supported the Expansion Progam 499.3 Real Performance Latest Forecast PC/UMS Tonnage (In million) Forecast with expansion (Master Plan) Forecast Without Expansion 450.7 442.1 441.0 426.5 403.8 400.0 413.5 387.2 373.0 340.7 330.4 315.8 305.3 FY 2015 FY 2016 301.8 FY 2017 294.2 FY 2018 287.1 288.4 FY 2019 (P) FY 2020 (P) In 2003, when the project was being planned, the world looked as the orange and green lines. The orange line was our baseline tonnage projection basically supported by the growth in neopanamax containerships. The green line respresents the future demand if the expansion project was not done and it was supported by the fact that the container industry had already made the decision to move towards the use of larger vessels that could not fit the original locks of the Panama Canal and the consequent decline in demand due to the deterioratoin of the service and increased transiting times. The blue line is the actual performace of the Canal. In 2016, the Canal starts to feel the effect of constraint capacity, but the new locks are inaugurated in June, which then allows the waterway to attract new demand in the next two years. The short term projections show continues growth, in spite of the current trade war, being impulsed by the energy sector. 10
Expansion works began on September 3, 2007 afer a national referendum And the third set of locks was inaugurated on June 26, 2016 11
The expansion improves significantly the competitive position of the Canal worldwide Neopanamax Panamax 366 m 294.2 m 32.3 m Maximum Capacity of transiting vessels 5,000 TEU 51.25 m Maximum Capacity of transiting vessels 14,863 TEU Greater Capacity strengthens ACP’s market position Key message: Upon completion, the Canal will be able to tend to an extra 24.3% of global vessel fleets. The larger dimensions of the Canal locks will enable access of New Panamaxsized vessels, which carry almost three times as much cargo as Panamax counterparts (14k v 5k) The Expansion, in particular, will be able to accommodate New Panamax LNG vessels, which will also allow for transshipment opportunities by taking advantage of expected container terminal port capacity, railroad improvements and multipurpose capacity facilities Additionally, the ability to tend to New Panamax-sized, so we will have a reduced cost per unit of cargo because larger vessels will be able to transit the Panama Canal The Expansion will more than double the waterway’s tonnage capacity, unlocking economies of scale and enabling a pricing strategy that incentivizes usage of the Canal, driving transportation costs down. Given that transportation comprises a significant part of the overall cost, the Expansion will create a virtuous circle of economic activity in the orbit of the Canal, enhancing its network capability and connectivity and benefitting exporters, importers, shipping lines, and ultimately customers 12
40,000 4,832 9,931 18,940 AF 1955 AF 1975 AF 1995 28,204 500 36,192 442.1 M of PC/UMS Tons 35,000 AF 2016 38.3 M 9.5% AF 2018 450 MILLIONS Transits and PC/UMS Tons 400 30,000 TRANSITS 25,000 300 20,000 250 200 15,000 13,795 transits 247 1.8% 10,000 0 1914 150 100 5,000 Transits PC/UMS TONS 350 50 PC/UMS Tons 0 1922 1930 1938 1946 1954 1962 1970 1978 1986 1994 2002 2010 2018 Updated as of: 30-Sep-2018 At the Panama Canal, vessels are measured in Panama Canal tons, or what we internally refer to as PC/UMS (Panama Canal Universal Measurement System), which corresponds to the volumentric capacity of vessels to carry cargo. Since 1914, PC/UMS and transits had been moving together on a steady growth until the 1980s, when transits stabilize at around 12-13,000 per year and tonnage started to grow significantly faster. This fact was just the reflection of the trend in the Shipping industry toward the search of better economies of scale using larger vessels. In the 1950s, a typical vessel through the waterway would be 4,832 tons, while in the 1990s this average size of vessels in the Canal was 4 times larger. After the third set of locks began operations, the average vessel was in 2018 about 36,000 tons. 13
PCUMS Tonnage by Market Segment 160 Million of PCUMS Tons 140 120 16 12% Refrigerated General Cargo Passengers Others *Tankers include LNG & LPG 159 Container 130 25 24% *Tankers 100 -5 -6% 80 74 Dry Bulk 60 50 40 Vehicle Carriers 20 7 14% 11 97 2 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Fiscal Year As I said at the very beginning, the world was very different back in 2003. Our projections about container vessels were partially correct, as we did foresee the arrival of container neopanamax vessels, but mainly in the 8-9,000 TEU size range. What we have seen so far I that the shipping industry has put its trust on us and has sent our way 14800 TEU vessels, testing our capabilities to handle these ships! A market segment that was not in our radar back in 2003, and I should say probably in nobody’s radar, was LNG. At the time, the U.S. was a net importer of LNG mainly from the Middle East and we could only foresee some volumes being imported from Peru, and perhaps some few movements from Trinidad into Chile. The U.S., following the shale revolution, has come from being a net energy importer to be a net energy exporter in 2022. Just last month, the U.S. was for the first time a net crude oil exporter. 14
Panama Canal Main Users Main Types of Goods: Petroleum Products Grains 68.5% of Canal cargo traffic originates in, or is destined to, the United States Chemicals Mineral Ores and Metals Automotive Electronics & Machinery Textiles Sources: ACP Data Warehouse Total Cargo Movements (in millions of long tons): 241.0 millions long tons User Country FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 United States China Chile Mexico Japan 137.2 38.7 25.3 15.4 19.0 164.6 45.4 27.5 25.2 27.4 174.9 41.6 30.4 30.4 30.0 USA imports computers/electronics, cars, pharmaceuticals and crude oil; exports integrated circuits, pharmaceuticals, cars, refined oil CHINA imports integrated circuits, crude oil and iron ore; exports computers/electronics, textiles and metals CHILE imports machinery/electronics, cars and refined/crude oil; exports copper ore/refined, veg products/fruits, animal products/fish JAPAN imports computers/electronics, crude oil, gas and pharmaceuticals; exports integrated circuits, machinery, cars and vehicle parts MEXICO imports circuits/computers/electronics, vehicle parts, metal products and plastics/rubbers; exports computers/electronics, cars/trucks and crude oil 15
Neopanamax Locks – Total Transits (Jun 26 2016 – January 8, 2019) Container 2,697 LPG Carrier 1,375 LNG Carrier 583 Dry Bulk 445 Crude/Product Tankers 163 Vehicle Carriers/RoRo Total 5,432 Neopanamax 89 Chemical Tankers 36 Passengers 26 Others 14 General Cargo *Liquid bulk: tankers, chemical and product carriers 4 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 16
Panama Canal Market Share – Northeast Asia to East Coast of the United States 100% U.S. Intermodal System 86% 83% 80% 77% 72% 65% 60% 59% 42% 39% 40% 32% 29% 30% 30% 29% 29% 29% 31% 29% 27% 20% 0% 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 Panama Canal 100% 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18(E) Suez Canal 100% 80% 80% 60% 52% 50% 52% 52% 34% 40% 20% 09 22% 20% 11% 15% 57% 45% 42% 38% 40% 39% 37% 40% 43% 45% 48% 60% 40% 21% 23% 20% 3% 2% 2% 5% 1% 3% 0% 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18(E) 0% 99 00 01 02 03 04 6% 05 11% 06 16% 19% 13% 07 08 09 25% 10 29% 31% 32% 32% 31% 30% 11 12 13 14 15 16 33% 32% 17 18(E) Source: ACP/ NTA-SL, October 2018 Since 2008, the waterway began to experience a decline in market share in its most important trade route: Asia – East Coast of the United States, losing ground versus Suez and the West Coast intermodal system, as forecasted. However, we experienced a recovery triggered by the launching of a loyalty program in 2015 that required the accumulation of TEU capacity by customer in order to access better rates in 2016. This tolls strategy helped to bring back some of the liner services that had been using alternative routes because of changes in vessel size in their fleet. Once the third set of locks began operations, we observed a significant improvement and in 2018, the Panama route registered 48% of the market share in this trade lane. 17
Liner Services Connectivity of the Panama Canal Vancouver Seattle Vostochniy Tokyo Yokohama Nagoya Busan Kobe Oakland Los Angeles Long Beach Ensenada Shanghai Ningbo Hong Kong Chiwan Bremerhaven Tilbury Rotterdam Southampton Dunkirk Le Havre Halifax Boston New York Philadelphia Norfolk Wilmington (NC) Savannah Jacksonville Houston Mobile Miami Manzanillo, Mex Barcelona Valencia Sines Genoa Leghorn Cagliari Tanger Med Kingston P. Caucedo Manzanillo Cartagena Cristobal Port of Spain Balboa Buenaventura Singapore Guayaquil Papeete Callao Mejillones Noumea Sydney Melbourne San Antonio Auckland Tauranga Napier San Vicente Coronel Chalmers Commercial Route Source: ACP MEMN, Compair Data, January 2019 Feeder Services Atlantic Feeder Services Pacific Total No. of Services 26 9 35 Annual No. of Average Capacity in Vessels Vessel Size one direction 3,227,865 95 3,037 2,324,460 69 7,092 5,552,325 164 Commercial Route No. of Service ASIA-USEC / Gulf WCSA-EUROPE USWC-EUROPE WCSA-USEC ASIA-CARIBE OCEANIA-USEC OCEANIA-EUROPE WCSA-CARIBE 13 5 3 3 1 1 1 1 Annual Capacity in one direction 5,926,939 1,588,964 973,416 293,856 481,975 183,915 61,783 117,117 28 9,627,965 Total No. of Vessels Average Vessel Size 136 46 32 11 12 11 7 4 8,866 6,225 6,150 2,678 9,269 3,537 2,376 2,252 259 7,314 At this moment, we have 12 Panamax liner services deployed in our route, plus 16 Neopanamax services. Our main route is Asia – USEC with 13 liner services deploying 136 vessels with an average vessel size of 8,866 TEU. In addition, our country provides additional connectivity through 35 feedering services, 26 in the Atlantic coast and 9 in the Pacific area. 18
CMA CGM Theodore Roosevelt August 22, 2017 Transit Record Capacity: 14,863 TEUs Looking at the original forecast, the Canal was expecting to see container ships within the range of up to 8,000 TEU, at least during the first years of operations, as this vessel size was to be the workhorse of the industry back in the day! In contrast, our customers placed great confidence in our capability to handle the maximum size of vessels allowed in the new locks and as early as August 2017, we had our record transit of 14,863 TEU containership. 19
CMA CGM T. Roosevelt & CMA CGM J. Adams [sister ship] August 22 transited 1 week later after August 29, 2017 14,863 TEUs of capacity Another assumption from the early days was that there would be a decline in Panamax transits, as the cargo moved toward larger vessels a sort of what we called “cannibilization”. This happened, but not the extend we were expecting and today we can see both lanes, panamax and neopanamax, very well utilized. 20
Containership Fleet in Number of Vessels 2019 Total fleet: 5,287 2022 Total fleet: 5,674 About 96% of the container fleet can use the Panama Canal route today and this percentage is set to continue well into 2022. 21
Liquid Bulk flows throught the Panama Canal FY2016 – FY2017 – FY2018 Pre-expansion Post-expansion 0,5 M long ton/month (avg) 2,750,000 Chemicals 2,500,000 Ammonium 2,250,000 LPG 2,000,000 LNG LNG 1,750,000 1,500,000 1,250,000 1,000,000 LPG 750,000 500,000 250,000 Sep-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Jun-18 Apr-18 May-18 Mar-18 Jan-18 Feb-18 Dec-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Sep-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Jun-17 Apr-17 May-17 Mar-17 Jan-17 Feb-17 Dec-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Sep-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Jun-16 Apr-16 May-16 Mar-16 Jan-16 Feb-16 Dec-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 0 Sep-15 Cargo Long Ton 2,0 M long ton/month (avg) Beginning of operations Updated as of 30-Sep-2018 Another market segment that has exceled at the new locks is Liquid Bulk in general. This segment has received a strong impulse from the shale revolution in the United States, something unthinkable when the original forecasts were prepared in 2003. Since the inauguration of the neopanamax locks, the Canal added one more market segment to the group: LNG. The pre-expansion volumes of gas were on average 500,000 tons per month and solely composed by LPG. Upon the opening of the new locks, this volumen has grown 4 times, as can be observed in the graph and is expected to continue this upward trend. 22
LNG flows at the Panama Canal FY2018 Origin U.S. Country Origin SOUTH KOREA E.U. & Trinidad CHINA Tobago MEXICO JAPAN CHILE UNITED STATES HAWAII TAIWAN SINGAPORE Total Destination % 3,171,174 SOUTH KOREA 27.6% MEXICO 2,490,990 21.7% CHINA SOUTH KOREA 2,418,111 21.0% MEXICO CHINA 2,111,875 18.4% JAPAN JAPAN 6.7% CHILE769,338 CHILE145,362 1.3% HAWAII TAIWAN 143,122 UNITED STATES 1.2% 120,087 1.0% SINGAPORE 72,438 0.6% TAIWAN Long tons 2,940,811 315,726 2,291,330 220,108 2,102,385 199,660 1,984,333 127,542 650,087 119,251 143,122 57,119 73,123 72,438 62,968 % Destination 2,940,811 CHINA 2,291,330 MEXICO 2,102,385 JAPAN 1,984,333 CHILE 650,087 HAWAII 143,122 UNITED STATES 73,123 SINGAPORE 72,438 TAIWAN Trinidad & MEXICO Tobago SOUTH KOREA 9.0% 89.7% Long tons SOUTH KOREA 62,968 220,108 199,660 JAPAN 127,542 CHILE 119,251 TAIWAN 9.0% 57,119 145,563 Total 89.7% 315,726 CHINA Others % 1.3% 11,502,566 23
LPG flows at the Panama Canal FY2018 Origin U.S. Origin Country Destination Total Long%tons JAPAN 7,741,080 42.5% JAPAN 7,690,601 E.U. &SOUTH Trinidad MEXICO KOREA 2,657,721 646,595 14.6% SOUTH KOREA 2,382,771 Tobago CHINA 2,092,935 11.5% SOUTH 274,949 CHINA COREA 2,038,182 MEXICO 1,248,331 6.8% CHILE 844,012 CHILEOTHERS 1,026,694 214,358 5.6% ECUADOR 781,641 ECUADOR 781,641 4.3% MEXICO 561,397 SINGAPORE 510,076 2.8% SINGAPORE 510,076 OTHERS 1,861,344 % Destination 7,690,601 SOUTH KOREA 2,382,771 CHINA 2,038,182 CHILE 844,012 ECUADOR 781,641 MEXICO 561,397 SINGAPORE 6.2% 91.5% Long tons JAPAN OTHERS Trinidad & MEXICO Tobago SOUTH COREA OTHERS Others 91.5% 510,076 1,861,344 646,595 274,949 6.2% 214,358 420,277.64 Total % 2.3% 18,226,203 24
Market Share of U.S. LPG and LNG Exports LPG exports – Panama Canal market share - 2018 LNG exports – Panama Canal market share - 2018 FY 2018 52% Other 48% Panama Canal FY 2018 45% Other 55% Panama Canal 25
Who Benefits from the Canal Expansion? Main users PORTS EXPORTERS SHIPPING LINES IMPORTERS SUPPLY CHAINS CONSUMERS United States China Chile Mexico Japan Colombia Peru South Korea Ecuador Canada Panama Economies of scale; Supply chain efficiencies; Connectivity The main users of the Canal are the benefited from the expansion. 68.5% of the trade has its origin or destination in the United States. Ports serving larger vessels benefit from higher cargo volumes and greater transshipment calls in a limited number of ports, mainly in the Caribbean region. Exporters and importers reduce their transportation costs. The shipping lines make better use of their fleet and reduce the costs associated with the management of the crew, insurance and fuel, among others. Members of the supply chain, such as warehouses located near the areas where Neopanamax ships dock, benefit from further consolidation of cargo volume in one place and have the opportunity to provide value-added services (repackaging, labeling, modifications to the load). The consumer can benefit from lower costs. 28
Existing Logistics Assets in Panama The Panama Canal is an active participant of Panama’s Logistic Cluster Transisthmian Oil Pipeline Free Trade Zone Ports in both sides with modern terminals to handle: Containers Panama Canal Dry Canal with Railroad Highway Air Hub Special Economic Zones Bunkering RoRo Grain, Others In the future, the Panama Canal continues to support the local maritime and logistics cluster in a more aggressively. Our country has a number of logistics assets that can make Panama the preferred hub of the Americas and the Canal is committed to seeing this plan come through 29
Development of Panamanian port terminals ATLANTIC SECTOR Manzanillo International Terminal (3,500,000 TEU) Panama Ports Company - Cristobal (2,000,000 TEU) Colon Container Terminal (2,400,000 TEU) NEW DEVELOPMENTS Panama Colon Container Port, Inc. (2,500,000 TEU) Corozal Terminal (5,300,000 TEU) PACIFIC SECTOR TRANSISTHMIAN RAILROAD Panama Ports Company - Balboa (4,000,000 TEU) PSA (450,000 TEUs 1,500,000 TEU) This is the Panamanian port system. The Panamanian Port System is formed by five important containers terminals. In the Atlantic side we have three ports with almost 8 million TEU of capacity. Manzanillo International Terminal (MIT), is the biggest of the Atlantic Container Terminal with 3.5M TEUs. This terminal is managed by SSA Marine which is positioned at #12 in the international ranking. In the Pacific area we have two ports with almost 8.5 million TEU of capacity. 30
Panama Canal Challenges Horizons Create growth opportunities Expand the core business Maximize the core business returns Horizon 3 Horizon 2 Horizon 1 2007-15 Market Segmentation Execute the Panama canal Expansion Program Implementation of new Toll rates Prepare the organization to manage an expanded Canal 2000-06 Multidisciplinary studies for the Expansion of the Canal 2016-22 Efficiently manage the Expanded Canal Take advantage of the opportunities provided by the expanded Canal, through diversification in complementary activities Immediately, after the administration of the Canal was transferred to the Panamanians, the ACP developed a Strategic Horizon Plan that frames the main projects of interest in the short, medium and long term. This plan was updated as the years went by, and is divided into three horizons: The first horizon involved Maximizing the benefits of the main business (transit of ships), through the segmentation of the market and the adjustment of tolls. It was also necessary to carry out market studies to determine if there was a need to expand the plant or not. the second horizon, Expanding the Main Business, consisted in executing the expansion of the Canal and preparing the organization for administration. And the third horizon, efficiently manage the Expanded Channel and ensure the sustainability of the organization through the commercial development of complementary activities. 32
Complementary activities to maximize the value of the route Corozal Container Terminal Bunkering Ro-Ro Terminal Pipeline Logistics Park Vessel Repair LNG Terminal Electric power generation Top-Off Operations In order to take advantage of the opportunities that will be created by the Canal expansion, the Panama Canal is looking into a diversification strategy that will allow it to generate additional revenue while at the same time, strengthening the importance of the Panama Canal route. Our diversification strategy focuses on related activities that are profitable and that improve the core business of the Canal. Potential developments as new container, roro and LNG terminals, power generation projects, and logistics parks are among the main projects in our business development strategy to capitalize on the opportunities aforementioned. 33
This is how we foresee the future of Panama 34
The Expanded Panama Canal Were the forecasts correct? Esteban G. Sáenz VP Transit Business Panama Canal: Redifining World Trade Good morning and thank you for the invitation to share with you some reflections about the Panama Canal and the road towards the decision to engage in this wonderful adventure of expanding our waterway. 35
The Panama Canal also handles 3.4% of the world maritime trade of chemical products and 3.1% of containers. 4. Connectivity Panama's maritime hub: 144 trade routes Over 1,700 ports In more than 160 countries Panama'sair hub: 85 direct destinations in America and Europe
C. Republic of Panama's - Panama Canal Authority D. United States Government. Correct Answer - C. On December 31, 1999, the U.S. Government transferred the Canal to Panama to be controlled by the Panama Canal Authority. Title: Microsoft PowerPoint - 08_Canal_McDonald_David Author:
The Panama Canal Shipboard Oil Pollution Emergency Plan (PCSOPEP) is a program that seeks to implement emergency preparedness strategies for Panama Canal waters. The PCSOPEP aids the Panama Canal Authority (ACP) in minimizing consequences of
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