Advanced Technologies For Industry
July 2020Advanced Technologiesfor Industry – Sectoral WatchTechnological trends in the automotive industry
Technological trends of the automotive industry - European CommissionThis report was prepared by Heidi Heimberger, Djerdj Horvat and Henning Kroll (Fraunhofer ISI)and Kincsö Izsak and Palina Shauchuk (Technopolis Group).EUROPEAN COMMISSIONExecutive Agency for Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (EASME)Unit A.1.2 — COSMEE-mail: EASME-COSME-ENQUIRIES@ec.europa.euDirectorate General for Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEsUnit F.1 — Industrial Strategy and Value ChainsUnit F.2 — Social EconomyE-mail: GROW-ATI@ec.europa.euEuropean CommissionB-1049 BrusselsLEGAL NOTICEThe information and views set out in this report are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the officialopinion of EASME or of the Commission. Neither EASME, nor the Commission can guarantee the accuracy of the dataincluded in this study. Neither EASME, nor the Commission or any person acting on their behalf may be heldresponsible for the use, which may be made of the information contained therein.More information on the European Union is available on the Internet (http://www.europa.eu).PrintPDFISBN 978-92-9460-060-8ISBN 978-92-9460-061-5doi: 10.2826/4434doi: 10.2826/13579 European Union, 2020July 20202EA-02-20-483-EN-CEA-02-20-483-EN-N
Technological trends of the automotive industry - European CommissionTable of contentsIntroduction . 4Section 1 . 51.Setting the scene: industrial context . 51.1 Automotive value chain: market size and value evolution . 51.2 Growth trends in application areas . 61.3 Automotive employment – a driver of growth and eastward shifts . 6Section 2 . 82.Technological trends. 82.1 Technology shifts and advances – emergence of advanced technologies, computing andsoftware technologies . 82.2 Trends in patenting of advanced manufacturing technologies and IT for Mobility: large EU27share while China is on the rise . 92.3 Technological patenting of automotive firms – advanced manufacturing technology, IT formobility and AI . 112.4 Technology adoption for enhanced products and services . 12Section 3 .143.Venture capital investment and start-up creation .143.1 VC and private equity investment in autonomous/electric vehicles and mobility. 143.2 Automotive startups: focus on software, financial services, Apps and AI . 15Section 4 .174.Skills supply and demand .174.1 Availability of new technological skills -prominence of advanced manufacturing . 174.2 Demand for new skills: big data and autonomous driving . 18Section 5 .205.Future outlook: challenges and opportunities .205.1 COVID-19 pandemic . 205.2 New emission regulations . 205.3 High investment needs . 205.4 Digital divide . 205.5 Developing and emerging markets . 215.6 Software and services . 215.7 Innovation in new technologies. 21Bibliography .22About the ‘Advanced Technologies for Industry’ project .26July 20203
Technological trends of the automotive industry - European CommissionSectionIntroductionThis sectoral report has been prepared in the framework of the ‘Advanced Technologies for Industry’(ATI) project, initiated by the European Commission, Directorate General for Internal Market, Industry,Entrepreneurship and SMEs and the Executive Agency for Small and Medium-sized Enterprises.It analyses trends in the generation and uptake of advanced technologies, related entrepreneurialactivities and skills needs in the automotive sector with a specific emphasis on autonomous driving,electric vehicles and related mobility services. It interprets data from a list of data sources compiled tomonitor advanced technologies and their applications in industry across Europe and key competitoreconomies.The starting point of this analysis has been 16 advanced technologies that are a priority for Europeanindustrial policy and that enable process, product and service innovation throughout the economy andhence foster industrial modernisation. Advanced technologies are defined as recent or futuretechnologies that are expected to substantially alter the business and social environment and includeadvanced materials, advanced manufacturing, artificial intelligence, augmented and virtual reality, bigdata, blockchain, cloud technologies, connectivity, industrial biotechnology, Internet of Things, microand nanoelectronics, mobility, nanotechnology, photonics, robotics, security.The relevance of these specific technologies in the agri-food industry has been explored through patentanalysis and data on private equity investments, skills and technology uptake. The full methodologybehind the data calculations is available here: https://ati.ec.europa.eu.This report is structured as the following: The first section sets the industrial context.The second section analyses technological trends in advanced technologies applied in theautomotive industry based on patents and text-mining of company websites.The third section presents findings about private equity investment and startup/spinoff activity.The fourth section explores the supply and demand of skills related to advanced technologies inthe automotive industry.The fifth chapter concludes with a short future outlook.July 20204
Technological trends of the automotive industry - European CommissionSection 11. Setting the scene: industrial contextKey messagesWhile the traditional automotive industry continues to play an important role in the global economy, ithas been facing a number of challenges in recent years: new players enter the market, customersdemand new services and the digital transformation changes production processes as well as vehiclesthemselves.The traditional application areas of vehicles are also changing. The demand for e-mobility is on therise and digital technologies enable new concepts like car sharing, connected cars and autonomousdriving.Europe holds a strong position in exporting vehicles although relevant parts of the productionprocess have shifted to emerging economies. Value chains are changing rapidly, forcing traditionalcarmakers and suppliers to adapt their business models.1.1 Automotive value chain: market sizeand value evolutionThe European Union continues to hold a strongposition in the automotive industry.4 The leadingautomotive producer, however, is China with27.9% of the worldwide motor vehicle productionin 2019, followed by the European Union with21.3%. In contrast, in 2003, Europe still held 33%of the worldwide motor vehicle production whileChina accounted for a mere 8%. 5 6The automotive industry has a high impact onEurope's economic growth, development andemployment. The industry has been facing a majortransformation. Emerging players enter the supplychain, while new technologies and demands arepushing smaller, safer and connected cars,governments set emission standardsrequiringgreenercarsand Figure 1: Number of Automobile assembly and engine production plantsinnovations enable the development in Europe (2018)of driverless cars as well as newmobility services. New technologieschange the production process andthe overall use of vehicles. Newbusiness models and concepts likecar sharing create new mobilityservices. All those changes will alsoshape the future of the automotiveindustry as a whole: carmakers aswell as suppliers.1The automotive value chain consistsof different companies that specialiseand produce inputs as first, second orthird tier suppliers. The originalequipmentmanufacturer(OEM)defines the design that is used toassemble these inputs into the finalvehicle.2 The automotive productionhas shifted from early industrialcountries (e.g. USA, Japan orGermany), holding the major vehiclebrands, to emerging economies.3Source: European Automobile Manufacturers Association (2019a). The AutomobileIndustry Pocket Guide 2019/2020.1 OECD 2016, 5ff.2 European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association 2019a, p. 9.3 OECD 2016, 4ff.July 202054 Konstantin Konrad 2018, p. 11.5European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association 2020c, p. 9.6 European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association 2019b.
Technological trends of the automotive industry - European CommissionFigure 1 visualises the distribution of the 229automotive assembly and engine productionplants in the EU countries7 (blue) in 2018.Germany is the worldwide leading automotiveexportingcountry,accountingfor20%( 135.1 bn8) of the total world car exports,followed by Japan (12.8%) and the US (6.6%).Spain is the second largest EU27 exportingcountry of motor cars, accounting for 4.6% ofglobal car exports in 2018.9 10 The value ofpassenger cars exported by EU28 countries(to countries outside the EU) decreased by 3.1%to 128 bn from 2017 to 2018. With a marketshare of 36.2% in 2018 Asia/Oceania is the EU'sbiggest export market for motor vehicles, followedby North America with 31.9%.11 Even though asmall group of countries and regions are leadingthe world automotive production, the automotivevalue chain has been becoming increasinglycomplex and global. A growing number of playersis involved, operating in different sectors andlocated in geographically distributed areas. Nextto production and assembly, various activities(directly and indirectly linked) are hostedworldwide, e.g. design, testing or research anddevelopment (R&D). The traditional value chainwhich has been developed over time, evolves fromvertical integration into a dispersed productionnetwork.121.2 Growth trends in application areasIn 2018 a total of 97.2 m new motor vehicles wereregistered worldwide, of which 28.5m (a globalshare of 29.4%) in China. A share of 18.1% (17.6m) of global new motor vehicles was registered inEU countries in 2018: 15.2 m passenger cars,2.1m light commercial vehicles (up to 3.5 tonnes),383,325 commercial vehicles (over 3.5 tonnes)and 41,825 buses/coaches. Within the EU27,Germany, France and Italy recorded the mostvehicle registrations in 2018.13The segments of new passenger cars in the EUconsist of 35% sport utility vehicles (SUV), 29%small cars, 19% lower medium cars, 8% compactmulti-purpose vehicles (MPV), 7% upper mediumcars and 3% luxury cars, in 2018. The share ofSUV registrations has been increasing since2008.14The automotive industry shows growth trends inthe electrification, automation and sharing ofvehicles.15 While in 2018 the majority of fuel types7 The data include the UK as an EU member state at that time.8 The amount in Euro was calculated based on the ECB’s officialEuro foreign exchange reference rates for 2018.9 Workman 2020.10 European Commission 2019e.11 European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association 2019a, 39ff.12 OECD 2016, p. 15.13 European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association 2019a, 27ff.14 European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association 2019a,p. 35.15 Frederiksson et al. 2018, p. 1.16 European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association 2019a,p. 36.July 20206in new passenger cars registered in the EUrepresented petrol cars (56.7%), an increase from5.8% in 2017 to 7.4% in 2018 is visible inalternatively-powered vehicles (with the highestgrowth in hybrid electric vehicles and natively powered vehicles rises in the EU, theregistration of diesel vehicles has decreasedsignificantly. In 2017, 44% of all new passengercars were diesel-powered, whereas the share wasonly 35.9% in 2018.16 The global electric car fleetexceeded 5.1 m in 2018 representing an increaseof 2m from 2017. The biggest electric car marketis China, followed by Europe and the US.17 In 2018the EU exported electric and hybrid electric carsworth 4.7 bn and imported 1.6 bn.18 Thenumber of new Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV) inthe European market is expected to riseconsiderably due to new CO2 emission standardsset in 2020.19The market for automated vehicles20 has beenbooming as well, enabled by the development erformancecomputing, connectivity and global positioning/HDmaps technologies. On a scale of automation fromone to five21, the levels three (conditionalautomation) and four (high automation) arecurrently being tested and are expected to achievemarket readiness between 2020 and 2030,whereas levels 1-2 are already on the market.According to various studies, autonomous vehicleswill play a crucial role for the EU in seizing theopportunity of creating new jobs and generatingprofits of up to 620 bn by 2025. In sum, theeconomic growth of autonomous vehicles ispromising and thus will further on play a crucialrole in the automotive sector.22Finally, the demand for car-sharing services hasincreased significantly in recent years. Whilearound five million people used car-sharingservices in Europe in 2016, by 2018 the numberof users rose to 11.5 m. The European fleet ofshared cars almost tripled from 132,000 in 2016to 370,000 in 2018.231.3 Automotive employment – a driver ofgrowth and eastward shiftsBroadly defined, i.e. including related services, theEU28 automotive sector employed a workforce of17 Till Bunsen et al. 2019, p. 9.18 European Commission 2019c.19 Florent Grelier, Julia Poliscanova, Carlos Calvo Ambel, EoinBannon and Sofia Alexandridou 2019, p. 9.20 Automated vehicles have the ability to assist the driver bymaking use of digital technologies.21 Level 1-driver assistance, level 2-partial automation, level 3conditional automation, level 4-high automation and level 5-fullautomation (European Parliament 2019).22 European Parliament 2019.23 ING Economics Department 2018.
Technological trends of the automotive industry - European Commissionalmost 13.8 m in 2017 with general services (e.g.sales and maintenance) and transport accountingfor the greatest share of employment. Themajority of the 2.6 m direct jobs in automotivemanufacturing can be found in Germany(869,118), France (223,000) and Poland(202,858), followed by the UK24 and Romania.25In terms of development, analysing data from2013 until 2017, the EU automotive sectorexperienced annual growth in employment. Thetotal automotive employment increased by 1.6%from 2016 to 2017, including 4.1% growth in24 The data include the UK as an EU member state at that time.25 European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association 2019a, 11ff.July 20207direct manufacturing employment. However, it ispredicted that roughly 10% of direct and indirectmanufacturing-related jobs will be cut by 2030 inthe EU. It relies on the argument that, on the onehand, the demand for employers in traditionalmechanical areas will decrease by roughly 25%due to automation and electrification. On the otherhand, a projected 15% increase of the demand forworkforce skilled in software and electronics willmost likely not cover the caused gap.2626 McKinsey&Company 2019, 32f.
Technological trends of the automotive industry - European CommissionSection 22. Technological trendsKey messagesThe analysis of trends in Advanced Manufacturing technology and Mobility patenting reveals a relativelysteady development of the EU27 countries, while China is on the rise. The EU27 countries stillhold the largest share of global Advanced Manufacturing technology patents notably 31% in 2017 butthe Chinese share grew by ten percentage points from 2007 to 201727.Within the EU, especially Germany accounts for the largest share of the EU27 patents inAdvanced manufacturing as well as IT for Mobility, followed by France. The highest patent growthin the EU27 since 2007 was identified in IT for Mobility, AI and Security.When analysing the adoption of advanced technologies in the automotive industry, the majority of theanalysed companies referenced products and services related to the Internet of Things (IoT),Photonics and Robotics on their websites. This applies to firms involved in the manufacturing processof vehicles as well as those involved in the use of vehicles and/or related services.2.1 Technology shifts and advances –emergenceofadvancedtechnologies,computing and software technologiesThe rapid development of digital technologies isreshaping the automotive industry as a whole ondifferent levels. Table 1 displays three innovationlevels affected by technological shifts: vehicleinnovations, production innovations and newbusiness models.Table 1: Overview of technological trends shaping theautomotive ninnovationsNew businessmodelsTechnological developments-Car connectivityAutonomous drivingSmart factoriesIndustry 4.0 applicationsAfter-sales servicesNew car-ownership modelsOn-demand mobility servicesSource: Following Paunov and Planes-Satorra 2019, p. 8Vehicle innovations describe technologicaldevelopments in the vehicle itself. Car connectivityis possible through technological enhancements inthe collection and processing of data which is thenshared and connected to other vehicles. Thisinnovation enables a safer and more convenientmobility as well as new services, such asautomated emergency calls in the case of an272829303132Fraunhofer calculations based on ATI, 2019.Paunov and Planes-Satorra 2019, p. 8.European Data Protection Supervisor 2019, p. 1.Brandt 2017.Paunov and Planes-Satorra 2019, p. 8.European Commission 2018, p. 2.July 20208accident, real-time hazard-warnings, repairdiagnostics and optimised route planning.28Vehicles are increasingly equipped with systemsgenerating data: installed sensors, brought-insensors (e.g. through mobile devices) andsystems for information and entertain
automotive industry based on patents and text-mining of company websites. The third section presents findings about private equity investment and startup/spinoff activity. The fourth section explores the supply and demand of skills related to advanced technologies in the automotive industry. The fifth chapter concludes with a short future outlook. Section . Technological trends of .
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