Climate Outlook For Winter 2016/2017
Climate Outlook forWinter 2016/2017LEE Hyunsoo, PARK Jeongwon, LEE Seongeun,KIM Hyun-Kyung, SUNG Kumran(Korea Meteorological Administration)Fourth EASCOF, 8 9 November 2016
Consideration elements for winter predictiono ENSOo Dynamical model (GloSea5, WMO Lead Center for MME)o Arctic Sea Iceo Snow cover for Eurasian Continento AO (Arctic Oscillation)o Blocking ActivityFourth EASCOF, 8 9 November 2016
ENSO condition and predictionCurrently, the Niño3.4 region of the tropical Pacific Ocean islikely to be in La Niña thresholds. The majority of internationalclimate outlook models and expert opinion suggest that La Niñais approximately 50-60% likely during the remaining period of2016, lasting into early 2017. The most likely strength of La Niña,if it prevails, is weak.Fourth EASCOF, 8 9 November 2016
500hPa GPH and SSTDecNov(GloSea5)JanDecFebJanFebFourth EASCOF, 8 9 November 2016
Ensemble prediction(GloSea5)Probability of 1.5m temperature (DJF)DecJanFebDecJanFebProbability of precipitation (DJF)Fourth EASCOF, 8 9 November 2016
MME Prediction(WMO LC)Probability of 1.5m temperature (DJF)Ensemble mean for 1.5m temperatureDecProbability of precipitation (DJF)JanFebEnsemble mean for precipitationDecJanFebFourth EASCOF, 8 9 November 2016
MME Prediction(ECMWF)Probability of 1.5m temperature (DJF)Ensemble mean for 1.5m temperatureDecProbability of precipitation (DJF)JanFebEnsemble mean for precipitationDecJanFebFourth EASCOF, 8 9 November 2016
Impact of ENSO – La Nina years compositeFourth EASCOF, 8 9 November 2016
Impact of Arctic Oscillation : -AO compositeFourth EASCOF, 8 9 November 2016
Impact of ENSO and AOFourth EASCOF, 8 9 November 2016
Impact of Barents / Kara sea iceSevere winters across East Asia are associated with anomalous warmth in theBarents-Kara Sea region.Fourth EASCOF, 8 9 November 2016
Impact of Laptev sea iceFewer sea ice overthe Laptev Sea forprevious October isaccompanied by thebelow-normaltemperature forDecember for Korea.Fourth EASCOF, 8 9 November 2016
Impact of Arctic Sea Iceo Analysis data are 1973 2014, and the ＊ means statistically significant value Sea Ice Concentration over Kara-Barents(65-80N, 60 .15 October Sea Ice Concentration over Laptev(65-80N, 105 .01Fourth EASCOF, 8 9 November 2016
Impact of SnowcoverMore snowcover over the Eurasian continent and its fast progress for the previousOctober are significantly related to below-normal temperature for early winterFourth EASCOF, 8 9 November 2016
Impact of Snowcover October Snow Advanced 11-0.19-0.11Fourth EASCOF, 8 9 November 2016
Summary Consideration for prediction- Weak La Niña is expected- Most dynamic model results show slightly above-normal temperatureand below-normal precipitation for the following winter- Most statistical analyses(La Nina, arctic sea ice, and Eurasiansnowcover) give us below-normal temperature for early winter, nearor above-normal temperature after mid winter, and below-normalprecipitation 2016/17 winter outlook- Near normal winter monsoon is expected- Strong intra-seasonal variationTemperatureWinterPrecipitationBelow NormalNear normalAbove normalBelow NormalNear normalAbove normal305020503020Fourth EASCOF, 8 9 November 2016
Thank you !!
Comparison with La Nina years after strong El Nino yearsDec 1983Jan 1984Feb 1984Dec 1998Jan 1999Feb 1999Fourth EASCOF, 8 9 November 2016
Impact of Arctic Sea Ice ART(ARctic Temperature Indices) :Index for Arctic regional Warming/Cooling ART1 : SAT averaging over Barents-Kara Seas(30-70E, 65-85N) ART2 : SAT averaging over East Siberia-Chukchi Seas(160E-160W, 65-80N) Warming in Barents-Kara Seas Warming in East Siberia-Chukchi SeasEast Asia CoolingNorth America CoolingFourth EASCOF, 8 9 November 2016
Similar cases for La-Niña developing years
기후인자별 위상과 우리나라 기온 편차 및 강수량 평년비Fourth EASCOF, 8 9 November 2016
Fourth EASCOF, 8 9 November 2016 2016/17 winter outlook - Near normal winter monsoon is expected - Strong intra-seasonal variation Temperature Precipitation Below Normal Near normal Above normal Below Normal Near normal Above normal Winter 30 50 20 50 30 2
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