Understanding Middle East Education - PwC

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UnderstandingMiddle EastEducationUAE Country ProfilePwC Education and Skills PracticeSecond Edition, 2018/2019pwc.com/me

The UAE is one of the moremature education marketsin the region and remainsa draw for investors, providersand studentsThis series of infographicsprovides a country by countryoverview of the educationsector in the Middle EastThe UAE is one of the more mature education markets in the region andremains a draw for investors, providers and students. Its scale and ambitionremain undimmed, but what is the reality on the ground? What do the trendsover time tell us about the education sector by segment, and what are the keydifferences between its main markets? In order to better understand the UAE’sEducation sector, it is important to understand the country’s:   Education Ecosystem   Structure of the Education System   Key Players   Overall Quality of EducationThis sets the scene for a deep dive into the enrolment trends and educationoutcomes of the UAE’s education systems across its three main educationstages: PreK, K-12 and Higher Education. We explore provision in the publicand private education sectors across the seven Emirates, with a focuson its two biggest markets in Dubai and Abu Dhabi.UAE Country Profile 2

Education EcosystemKey influences on private provision in the ness toExpat FamiliesIn the 2017-18 Global CompetitivenessReport, the UAE’s macroeconomicenvironment was ranked among the top30 globally, with the country being thelargest destination for FDI in the region.The country’s two biggest Emirates,Dubai and Abu Dhabi, have regulatorybodies in place to streamline theeducation investment and operationsprocesses.The government recently introducedownership laws to allow for 100%foreign investor ownership of companiesoutside free zones and 10 year residencyvisa options – a move designed to drivemore foreign investment into the countryand attract longer term residents.In Abu Dhabi, the Abu Dhabi Departmentof Education and Knowledge (ADEK)is undergoing changes to its mandate,shifting its focus away from publiceducational institutions – which are tomove under the Ministry of Education’sresponsibility – to focus on privateinstitutions, in a manner similar to that ofthe Knowledge and Human DevelopmentAuthority (KHDA) in Dubai.The UAE currently ranks 10th in HSBC’s2017 Expat Explorer Survey, climbingtwo spots from its 2016 ranking, makingit the highest ranking country in theMiddle East in terms of expat attitudesand behaviours – an indicator for theattractiveness of a country to expats.More and more private equity firms inthe region are growing their educationportfolios in light of this climate, withthe education sector ranking secondin terms of private equity transactionsamong all sectors in the Middle East.The cost of living in the UAE continuesto increase however, and the degreeto which this and the introduction ofVAT will affect education sector growthis yet to be determined. The Dubaigovernment has already stepped inby freezing K-12 tuition increases forthe 2018/19 academic year to protectparents, but the move has caused someexisting investors to reevaluate theirinvestment decisions, at least for thecoming year.Schools continue to face challengesin attracting and retaining the highestquality teachers and principalsregionally and in the UAE market inparticular. Recent legislation fromthe Ministry of Education to introduceteacher licensing aims to ensure aminimum standard of quality for allteachers in the country.However, a recent survey by YouGovshows that 42% of surveyed UAEresidents think the introduction of VATis likely to discourage expats fromcoming to the UAE. This is mainly drivenby the belief that the tax will increasethe cost of living, and have a somewhatuncertain effect on the overall economy.The UAE is at a point of inflection,making predictions for the comingyears difficult to forecast. What is clearis that the country’s potential – andgovernment willingness – to createa successful sector make for a strongstarting point in the region. This isparticularly relevant considering thatthe relative immaturity of the privatesector in surrounding GCC countries,in particular in KSA, continues to driveexpats to base their families in the UAE.Sources: World Economic Forum, HSBC Expat Explorer, PwC Middle East Economy Watch, S& Investment opportunitiesin the GCC education sector, YouGov Omnibus Research 2018UAE Country Profile 3

Structure of the Education SystemSimilar regulatory structures have emerged across the largest two Emirates in recent yearsFigure 1: Structure of the UAE education AE National Regulators18 or ndTrainingAwardsCouncil(VETAC)Dubai RegulatorsKHDA TVETQualificationsand Awards inDubai (QAD)Abu Dhabi RegulatorsAbu DhabiCentre forTechnical daryGrades(12-13)15Grades mediateGrades (6-8)1110National Qualifications Authority (NQA)SecondaryMinistry of Education (MoE)Knowledge andHuman DevelopmentAuthority (KHDA)Abu Dhabi Departmentof Education andKnowledge Pre-K4Pre-PrimaryFS1-FS23Sources: UNESCO, UAE GovernmentUAE Country Profile 4

Key PlayersA small number of large operators and institutions play a major role in the UAE’s deliverylandscape, although the number and variety of providers is increasingFigure 2: Key Players in the UAE education systemPre–KK-12(No. of Schools)Higher Ed(Enrolment No.)Local GovernmentRegulatorsAbu Dhabi GEMS EducationAldar AcademiesBright KidsKids First GroupBloom GEMS Education (7)Aldar Academies (7)SABIS (7)Bloom (2) Higher Colleges ofTechnology (23,000) UAE University (14,000) Abu Dhabi University (7,500) Zayed University (5,700) AD Department ofEducation & Knowledge(ADEK) AD Centre for Technical& Vocational Education &Training (ACTVET)Dubai GEMS EducationTaaleemInnoventuresKids First GroupBabilouBloom GEMS Education (32)Taaleem (10)Innoventures (5)SABIS (2)Bloom (2) University ofWollongong (3,900) Zayed University (3,800) Heriot-Watt UniversityDubai (3,600) Middlesex UniversityDubai (3,100) Manipal University (2,500) American University inDubai (2,300) Knowledge andHuman DevelopmentAuthority (KHDA) University of Sharjah(13,800) Ajman Uni of Science &Technology (6,300) American University ofSharjah (5,650) Rest of UAE GEMS Education (10) SABIS (5)Sharjah Education CouncilAjman Educational ZoneRAK Educational ZoneFujairah Educational ZoneUAQ Educational ZoneSources: numbers based on secondary sources, Nov 2018Overall Quality of EducationThe quality of the UAE’s primary and higher education systems rank among the top 20 globallyFigure 3: Global Competitiveness Index Rankings (2015, 2016, 2017)Change from2016-17 to lity of primary education16th12th13thQuality of higher education12th10th12thPrimary education enrolment, net %87th100th94thSecondary education enrolment, gross %NA71st67thTertiary education enrolment, gross %94th96th99thThe UAE continues to be the most competitive country in the Arab World according to the GlobalCompetitiveness Index, but its ranking dropped back to 2015-16 levels in 2017-18. This was mainly due to therelative improvement of other countries, highlighting a need to accelerate change. Education was highlighted asa key driver of competitiveness.Sources: World Economic ForumUAE Country Profile 5

UAE’s PISA rankings 2012-15 improved for Mathematics but dropped for Reading & Science, whileTIMSS results showed better performance in Mathematics and Science for Dubai compared withAbu Dhabi 2011-15Figure 4: PISA Results (2012, 2015)520PISA Rankings: between 2012 and2015 the UAE moved up one spot inMathematics, where it now standsin 47th place, but fell two placesin Reading, from 46 to 48 and inScience, from 44 to 46. However, theUAE Government has an aspirationto move into the top 20 by 5UAEOECD AverageRankingPISA Scores: both UAE scores andOECD average scores droppedcompared with 2012 levels. The UAEscores are the highest in the region,but remain below the OECD average.Dubai private schools offeringinternational curricula performedbetter than private and publicschools offering MoE curricula. TheMoE curricula is being modernised toaddress this issue.Figure 5: TIMSS Results (2011, 2015)2011Math 4th GradeMath 8th GradeScience 4th GradeScience 8th Grade2015UAE434UAE452Dubai468Dubai511Abu Dhabi417Abu Dhabi419UAE456UAE465Dubai478Dubai512Abu Dhabi449Abu Dhabi442UAE428UAE451Dubai461Dubai518Abu Dhabi411Abu Dhabi415UAE465UAE477Dubai485Dubai525Abu Dhabi461Abu Dhabi454TIMSS Scores show significantimprovement for Dubai inMathematics and Science (4th & 8thGrade) and small improvementfor Abu Dhabi in 4th GradeMathematics & Science, with dropsin 8th Grade Mathematics & Scienceperformance.Sources: OECD, Ministry of Education, International Monetary Fund, IEA TIMSSUAE Country Profile 6

Key Education Trends: Pre-KPre-K enrolment is expected to increase in Dubai & Abu Dhabi, with the latter expected to growat a faster rateFigure 6: Pre-K Enrolment Estimates (2013-2021)Population 5.5384.430,000Whilst Dubai has reported havingmore than 200 nurseries, (around50 more than Abu Dhabi reported),nursery enrolment in Abu Dhabihas seen faster growth, which, if itcontinues, will result in an expected2016-2021 CAGR of 11.5%compared with 9% in Dubai. Overallwe expect growth to continue asthe emphasis on the importance ofearly childhood education increases,alongside a move towards higherfemale participation rates in 00201320142015*2016EDubai Enrolment2017E2018E2019E2020E2021EAbu Dhabi Enrolment*: Estimated figure for Abu Dhabi and actual data for Dubai**: Population estimates include half the 4 year old population to account for academic year considerationsSources: UN, Dubai Statistics Center (DSC), Statistics Centre Abu Dhabi (SCAD), PwC AnalysisOECD average participation rates of0-2 year olds are estimated at 33%,compared to estimated participationrates of 7% in Abu Dhabi and 10%in Dubai.UAE Country Profile 7

Key Education Trends: K-12Private education enrolment is expected to grow at a CAGR of 4%, almost 4 times higher than therate of public education enrolment growthFigure 7: K-12 Enrolment Estimates (2013-2021)Population 4-18* 10020132014201520162017E2018E2019E2020E2021E0No. of Students – PublicNo. of Students – PrivateNo. of Schools – PublicNo. of SchoolsEnrolment (‘000)1,0000No. of Schools – PrivateMore than 150,000 new students will enroll between 2016 and 2021 in private K-12 if enrolment growthcontinues at the current rate – although some of this will be absorbed by capacity in existing school with lowutilization rates, particularly those most recently opened. (refer to Figure 9 for a breakdown of school growth inDubai and Abu Dhabi)This growth is in line with UN projections, which predict that the overall population will continue to grow until2021. The K-12 age group (4-18) shows the highest growth during the 2013-2016 period (CAGR 2.7%), and islikely to grow at a slightly slower rate for 2017-2021 (CAGR 2.2%). In 2016, the UAE had 27% of its students inpublic schools, and it spent around 22,000 (80,000 AED) per student, more than double the OECD average of 9,000 (33,000 AED).* Population estimates include half the 4 year old population and half the 18 year old population to account for academic year considerationsSources: UN, Ministry of Education, International Monetary Fund, PwC AnalysisUAE Country Profile 8

By Emirate: K-12 private sector enrolment grew by more than 95,000 between 2013 and 2016 acrossall seven Emirates, with almost 60% of that growth coming from Dubai and Abu DhabiFigure 8: K-12 Enrolment by Emirate (2013, 2016)400Enrolment 39%52%38%41%2013/14 2016/172013/14 2016/172013/14 2016/172013/14 2016/172013/14 2016/172013/14 2016/17Abu Dhabi(includes Al-Ainand Al Garbia)DubaiSharjahAjmanUmm Al QuwainAl Fujairah41%45%2013/14 2016/17Ras Al KhaimahEmiratesPublicPrivateSources: Knowledge and Human Development Authority (KHDA), Ministry of Education, Statistics Centre Abu Dhabi (SCAD)By Main Markets: Dubai and Abu Dhabi have been growing at similar rates when it comes to K-12private sector enrolment ( CAGR 4%)Figure 9: Private K-12 Enrolment Estimates in Dubai and Abu Dhabi bu-Dhabi Enrollment201520162017*Dubai Enrollment2018E2019EAbu-Dhabi Schools2020E2021ENo. of SchoolsEnrolment (‘000)200250While enrolment growth ratestend to be similar between thetwo Emirates ( CAGR 4%) 20132016, the number of schools hasgrown more quickly in Dubai thanAbu Dhabi, possibly due to AbuDhabi having started off with ahigher number of schools. AbuDhabi may be at the point ofneeding to introduce schools at afaster rate to increase capacity ifenrolment growth continues.Dubai Schools* Estimated figure for Abu Dhabi and actual data for DubaiSources: Knowledge and Human Development Authority (KHDA), Dubai Statistics Center (DSC), Statistics Centre Abu Dhabi (SCAD), PwC AnalysisUAE Country Profile 9

By Curriculum: UK, Indian and US curriculum popularity continues to drive growth in enrolment,with UK preference being significantly higher in Dubai, compared with a mix of preferencesin Abu DhabiFigure 10: Private K-12 Enrolment Estimates by Curriculum in Dubai and Abu Dhabi (2013-2021)In Dubai, if UK school enrolment continues to increase, it will represent over a third of the market by 2021.This will translate into 26,000 more enrolments by 2021, representing growth over 6 times higher than anyother school curriculum type. In Abu Dhabi, the case is similar for US curriculum schools, where, if enrolmentcontinues to increase, it will represent almost a third of the market in 2021, with more than 21,000 additionalenrolments. The drop in MoE curriculum popularity could reflect a preference among parents for moreinternational curricula.Dubai120,000Abu 020E2021EOther*** Other includes IB, among other less common curricula (French, Canadian, etc.)Sources: Knowledge and Human Development Authority (KHDA), Department of Education and Knowledge (ADEK), PwC AnalysisUAE Country Profile 10

By Quality: Overall school quality in Dubai improved over the past 5 years, with schools rated goodand higher growing from 49% of total schools to 66%Figure 11: Private School Ratings in Dubai (2013-2017)Overall utilization has dropped across curriculum types meaning that at least some of the projected additionalenrolment will be provided for in existing schools. The new capacity in IB in particular has not been filled yet,which could be explained by the high tuition fees of these schools. Despite higher average fees, parents remainwilling to send their children to “Outstanding” and “Very Good” schools. On the other hand, the utilization of‘Good‘ and 'Acceptable' schools has dropped significantly. The ‘Weak' rated schools are now seeing higherutilization, perhaps explained by the closure of the weakest and emptiest schools and the fact that these schoolstend to cater to lower income families.50%46.0%40%Share of Private Schools41.8%41.0%44.0%43.3%41.0%38.5% %4.3%6.3%4.7%3.6%0%2013-142014-15School Ratings:2015-16Outstanding Very Good2016-17GoodAcceptable2017-18WeakFigure 12: Private School Utilization Rates by Curriculum in Dubai (2014, 2017)Utilization ratesby 3,0007,00069,000–Average Fees AED**Figure 13: Private School Utilization Rates by Rating in Dubai (2014, 2017)Utilization ratesby rating*OutstandingVery rage Fees AED*** Utilization is calculated by dividing current school enrolment by current school capacity** Fees have been rounded to the nearest thousandSources: Knowledge and Human Development Authority (KHDA)UAE Country Profile 11

By Market Size: There is a shortage of quality schools in the AED 30,000-50,000 fee rangeDubai’s average fees per student is around 26,000 AED, with the majority of schools charging fees below30,000 AED, particularly where schools tend be bigger and have ratings of “Good” or lower. The majority of“Very Good” and “Outstanding” Schools charge average fees over 40,000 AED. There is a market gap forschools in the 30,000-50,000 AED range, specifically for high quality schools.Figure 14: Private School Fee Distribution by Size, Curriculum and Rating in Dubai (2017)12,00010,000School Size (Enrolment))8,0006,0004,000UKOutstandingIndianVery 0400005000060000700008000090000100000Average Fees (AED)Figure 15: Private School Market Size Estimates in Dubai and Abu Dhabi (2013-2021)**12Billions E2020E2021EThe Dubai and Abu Dhabimarkets are expected togrow at CAGR rates of7-8%, with Dubai growingat a slightly higher rate to amarket value almost 4 billionAED higher than that of AbuDhabi in 2021.Abu Dhabi* Estimated figure for Abu Dhabi and actual data for Dubai**Abu Dhabi and Dubai K-12 private school market size based on tuition fee (AED) and enrolmentSources: Knowledge and Human Development Authority (KHDA), Department of Education and Knowledge (ADEK), PwC AnalysisUAE Country Profile 12

Key Education Trends: Higher EducationThe environment is uncertain, but Higher Education enrolment has the potential to grow by around5,500 students by 2021Higher education enrolment grew between 2013 and 2015 but fell in 2016, due to a drop in private enrolmentestimated at -2.5%. If enrolment continues to drop at the same pace, the market will lose more than 10,000students in private HE by 2021, in what could be called a pessimistic scenario.On the other hand, the 18-24 population is projected to grow at a CAGR of around 2% (2017-2021), inboundstudent numbers exceeded 70,000 in 2016, and recent reforms have extended student visas from 1 year to 5years and up to 10 years for “exceptional” students. These factors, in addition to the arrival of highly rankeduniversities such as University of Birmingham, are likely to drive recovery in a “supply driven” market, closingsome of the gaps resulting from the small range of programs currently offered. An optimistic scenario could seeprivate enrolment continuing to grow linearly at a CAGR of 3.5%, adding more than 21,000 students by 2021.The reality may be somewhere between these scenarios, where some recovery is expected, but at a growth ratelower than that seen over the past few years. We estimate both public and private enrolment will grow at a CAGRof around 0.7%, resulting in more than 5,500 extra enrolments by 2021.Figure 16: Higher Education Enrolment Estimates 00040,00020,000020132014*2015PublicPrivate2016PwC Estimate2017E2018EPessimistic Scenario2019E2020E2021EOptimistic Scenario*2014 is an estimateSources: Knowledge and Human Development Authority (KHDA), UN, UNESCO, Federal Competitiveness and Statistics Authority (FCS

Key Education Trends: K-12 Private education enrolment is expected to grow at a CAGR of 4%, almost 4 times higher than the rate of public education enrolment growth Figure 7: K-12 Enrolment Estimates (2013-2021) More than 150,000 new students will enroll between 2016 and 2021 in private K-12 if enrolment growth

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