The Future Of The Smartphone: The Era Of . - Deloitte UK
The future of thesmartphone: the eraof invisible innovationDeloitte Global predicts that by the end of 2023,penetration of smartphones among adults indeveloped countries will surpass 90 percent,12a five-percentage-point increase over 2018.Smartphone sales will be 1.85 billion per yearin 2023, a 19 percent increase over 2018 andequivalent to over five million units per day.This usage frequency is likely to be significantlyhigher than for any other digital device, and it islikely to drive upgrades and, ultimately, total salesand the rising value of those sales. The frequencyof smartphone usage is likely also to spur anever-greater degree of smartphone-centriccontent creation and process redesign.The main driver of higher adoption rates in eachmarket will be take-up among older age groups.We would expect ownership among 55-to-75year-olds to reach 85 percent in developedcountries in 2023, a 10-percentage-pointincrease over 2018.13We expect about 180 million units to be sold inretail for 1,000 or more. This category alone willgenerate over 200 billion in revenue and, in unitand dollar terms, will be significantly larger thanthe entire tablet market.16 In Q3 2017, one-eighthof smartphones in Western Europe sold for 900or more, double the proportiona year prior.17We further predict that owners will interactwith their phones on average 65 times per dayin 2023, a 20 percent increase over 2018.14 Thiswill reflect the wider range of applications usedby the mainstream smartphone owner, such asenterprise applications and in-store paymentoptions, and more intensive use of existingapplications such as photography.We expect the percentage of smartphoneowners who use their devices daily to increasefrom 93 percent in 2018 to 96 percent by 2023.15This implies that 86 percent of all adults will use asmartphone on any given day in 2023, versus 79percent in 2018.We forecast an average selling price (ASP) forsmartphones of 350 in 2023, implying a totalmarket value of 650 billion. Global smartphonerevenue increased by 10 percent between 2016and 2017, from 434 billion to 478 billion.18Smartphone ASPs rose from 302 in 2015 to 324 in 2017 (ASPs had declined between 2012and 2015).19 We expect ASPs to continue to riseas users’ valuation of their handsets increases(see Figure 1).Deloitte Global predicts that by the end of 2023, penetration ofsmartphones among adults in developed countries will surpass90 percent, a five-percentage-point increase over 2018.12. Adults are, for the purposes ofthis survey, those aged 18 to 75.In most developed countries, thisrepresents the vast majority ofall adults. If we were to include16-to-17-year-olds as well, thepenetration would increase alittle. The data is from Deloitte’sGlobal Mobile Consumer Surveyacross 16 developed markets,with a total sample of 29,056respondents. The countriessurveyed are Australia (2,002),Belgium (2,002), Canada (2,002),Denmark (1,003), Finland(1,002), Germany (2,000), Ireland(1,036), Italy (2,000), Japan(2,003), Luxembourg (1,000), theNetherlands (2,000), Norway(1,002), Spain (2,000), Sweden(2,002), the UK (4,002) and the US(2,000). Deloitte’s Global MobileConsumer Survey (GMCS) refersto individual Deloitte memberfirms’ 2017 GMCS surveys,conducted between May andJuly 2017. For more details, al-mobileconsumer-trends.html.13. Ibid.14. Ibid. The average views for 2017,based on survey responses,were 46.Our view is that people in generalunderestimate the number oftimes they interact with a phone,as most people do not counthow many times they do it. Asof 2016, iPhone mobile deviceowners unlocked their phonesan average of 80 times per day.Apple’s Penchant for ConsumerSecurity, Tech.pinions, 18 April2016: ersecurity/45122.15. Ibid. As of 2017, this was 92percent.
The future of the smartphone: the era of invisible innovationFigure 1. Evolution of smartphone ASP, 2012-17 400 378 331 300 310 305 306201420152016 324 200 1000201220132017Source: GfK (for further information on the sources, see endnotes)In short, we predict that over the next five years,the smartphone market should continue to growin penetration, usage, unit shipments, total valueand ASP.Additionally, the smartphone will consolidate itsposition as the primary access to digital serviceand content. This is despite the fact that a 2023smartphone is likely to look, on the outside, verysimilar to a 2018 model.20 The majority of themodels shipped in 2023 are likely to feature asingle 5- or 6-inch high-definition rectangulartouch screen, have two cameras, weigh 130to 200 grams, and have a lithium-ion batterywith a capacity roughly similar to that of today’ssmartphones.The secret to the smartphone’s success over thenext five years is likely to be the introduction ofan array of innovations that are largely invisibleto its users but whose combined impact shouldfeel tangible in the form of greater ease of use(such as facial recognition based on depth maps)or improved functionality (for example, for mapsand photos).The smartphone’s invisible upgradesThe 2023 smartphone should offer superiorperformance across a range of business andconsumer applications, thanks to enhancedconnectivity, processors, sensors, software,artificial intelligence and memory.By 2023, 5G networks should have launched inmost developed markets, offering much greatercapacity and connectivity speeds. Over a billion5G users are forecast for China alone by 2023.21Furthermore, advanced 4G networks, whichcan also support peak download speeds of over1 Gbit/s, should have rolled out in most of theremaining markets.Dedicated artificial intelligence (AI) chips are likelyto have become standard across smartphonesby 2023 and will be most commonly used toassist machine-learning (ML) applications,and in so doing take load off the main CPU forthese tasks. 2017 was the first year in whichpremium smartphones (about 300 million, or20 percent, of shipments for that year)22 startedincorporating AI chips.According to Deloitte’s research, about twothirds of adult smartphone owners in developedcountries are using at least one applicationthat features ML, and 79 percent are aware ofapplications with ML (see Figure 2). Through2023, dedicated AI chips are likely to becomestandard in smartphones at all price points, ashappened with fingerprint readers; these wereinitially included in only flagship models but arenow available in 100 phones. Over time, and asthe base of smartphones with dedicated AI chipsincreases, the range and utilization rate of MLapplications should steadily increase.Premium handsets are always likely to have thelatest AI chips in the same way that they includethe most powerful CPUs and GPUs.Field-programmable gate array (FPGA) chips arealso likely to have become standard (an FPGA chipcan be programmed multiple times to undertakespecific tasks after manufacture). An FPGAtakes the load off the main processor for certaintasks, such as optimizing reception on a cellularnetwork, particularly in congested areas.23The CPUs and GPUs in smartphones are likely tobe upgraded on a regular basis over the next fiveyears, in tandem with developments with othermore specialized chips.0216. Deloitte Global estimates thatthere will be 180 million units ofsmartphones sold by multiplevendors retailing at 1,000 ormore (in US dollars, or whenconverted into US dollars) in2023. We estimate that theaverage selling price will be 1,250 for this category, with themost expensive devices priced atclose to 2,000. Deloitte Global’sforecast for global tablet salesin 2017 was 165 million, a 10percent decrease from the prioryear, and significantly lower thanthe 2014 peak of 230 millionunits. See Deloitte Global’s TMTPredictions 2017 – Have wepassed peak tablet? DeloitteTouche Tohmatsu Limited, 11January 2017: s/articles/technologytrends-for-2017.html.17. The figures are obtained byleveraging various press releasesby GfK. See Smartphone averageselling price sees record yearon-year growth in 3Q, GfK, 24October 2017: owth-in-3q/; Globalsmartphone sales hit aquarterly high in Q4 2015, GfK,3 March 2016: rongest Q3 smartphone saleson record driven by demand inChina, MEA and emerging APAC,GfK,25 November 2015: china-mea-and-emergingapac/; Global smartphone salesexceed 1.2b units in 2014, GfK,17 February 2015: martphone-salesexceed-12b-units-in-2014/.18. Ibid.19. Ibid.20. Deloitte Global expects themajority of smartphones shippedin 2023 are likely to feature asingle 5-to-6-inch touch screen(measured on the diagonal) andtwo to four cameras, weigh 150to 200 grams, and havea lithium-ion battery (the samecomposition as used in a 2018model).By 2023, the majority of screensare likely to be OLED; in 2018,about a third are likely toincorporate these screens.
The future of the smartphone: the era of invisible innovationThere is likely to be an increased range ofsensors included on smartphones in 2023, andexisting sensors are likely to be upgraded. Oneadditional sensor that may become mainstreamover coming years is a forward-facing infraredcamera, which is likely to be rolled out ona range of devices in 2018 and may end upusurping the fingerprint reader as the primarybiometric authenticator.24 Smartphones thatretain a fingerprint sensor are likely to featureupgraded components, and by 2023 these maybe ultrasonic, enabling them to work throughglass and metal and even when fingers are wetor greasy.25 The GPS receiver in smartphonesmay also be upgraded to enable it to delivermore precise location information – to within 30centimeters, versus 5 meters in 2017.26AI delivered via better software is likely tobecome increasingly used across all smartphoneapplications by 2023, and it will be an ever moreprominent differentiator. The main benefit of AIwill be to make applications work more slickly,delivering, for example, better recommendationson routes, more realistic augmented reality ormore compelling photos. AI, while not tangibleper se, is likely to be a heavily marketed corefeature.As of mid-2017, usage and awareness ofapplications featuring ML were still quite modest,but we expect both indicators to improvethrough 2023 as AI capabilities steadily improve(see sidebar: AI and smartphones).By 2023, 5Gnetworks shouldhave launched inmost developedmarkets, offeringmuch greatercapacity andconnectivityspeeds.AI and smartphonesAccording to Deloitte’s research, in which we askedrespondents about their awareness and usage of a rangeof AI-enhanced applications, the most commonly usedapplication was predictive text, followed by route suggestions(see Figure 2). Voice recognition applications saw a large cleftbetween awareness and usage. We expect that as the qualityof applications improves, thanks to better algorithms, datasets and AI hardware, users will increasingly depend on AIinfused tools.For example, in 2017, a quarter of smartphone ownersused route suggestions. We expect the proportion toexceed 60 percent by 2023, thanks to more personalizedand faster suggestions (due in part to the onboard AI chip,which can learn, for example, the device owner’s walkingpace according to the time of day) and more accuraterecommendations (courtesy of better data sets and betterlocation-tracking capability).Figure 2. Awareness and usage of applications featuring ML (developed markets)Predictive text35%Route suggestions24%Voice assistant31%9%Automated news or information updates27%13%Translations apps25%11%Voice-to-text25%7%Email classification23%12%Automated calendar entries21%10%Location based app suggestions20%5%Automated photo classification9%App suggestions4%Travel pop-ups39%37%12%Voice search50%20%15%13%6%Any of these0Awareness79%65%1020304050607080UsageWeighted base: Smartphone owners in 16 developed markets (24,563 respondents). The figure is the average of 16 countries in our study, namely Australia,Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden, the UK and the USA.Source: Deloitte’s Global Mobile Consumer Survey, developed countries, May-July 201703
The future of the smartphone: the era of invisible innovationThe average smartphone sold in 2023 will have128 GB or more storage, compared with about 32GB in 2018. Most of this space will be occupied byphotos and videos, but greater memory capacitywill provide more space for apps, some of whichwill be many gigabytes in size. RAM memoryis likely to range from 2 GB to 16 GB.27 Bothupgrades should make smartphones more usefuland valuable.One upgrade unlikely to come through is anew and better battery formulation. By 2023,lithium ion is likely to remain the basis of almostall batteries used in smartphones. As of late2017, there were no battery technologies on thehorizon that appeared to be sufficiently stableand mature to be tested and factored into supplychains that could displace lithium ion.However, all is not lost. Processors are likely tobecome more efficient. Splitting off processingtasks to other chips aside from the CPU helpsreduce battery usage. Using multiple processorsof varying power, some optimized for powerand others for efficiency, also improves powerusage.28 Second, wireless battery charging shouldhelp users top up devices when they’re out andabout. The major smartphone vendors haveagreed on a wireless charging standard knownas Qi that is likely to be rolled out in multipleenvironments, from coffeehouses to officewaiting rooms and from bedside tables to cars.Qi is used in smartphone brands that are likely torepresent collectively over a billion smartphonesshipped in 2018.29By 2023, lithium ion islikely to remain the basisof almost all batteriesused in smartphones. Asof late 2017, there were nobattery technologies on thehorizon that appeared to besufficiently stable and matureto be tested and factoredinto supply chains that coulddisplace lithium ion.The smartphone’s lengthening list ofapplicationsThese invisible innovations should enablethe smartphone to continue “absorbing” thefunctionality of an ever-broader array of physicalobjects, and to displace further the PC as thepreferred device for a growing range of digitalapplications.The smartphone’s expanding scope amongsmartphone users in the UK can be seen in Figure3. Between 2016 and 2017, the smartphonebecame the preferred device for video calls acrossall users, the preferred device for search among18-to-34-year-olds and the preference among45-to-54-year-olds for reading news. It was notall one-way traffic; the games console becamethe preferred device for playing video gamesamong males, possibly reflecting the rising marketpenetration by latest-generation consoles.0421. China to blaze connectivity trailwith a billion 5G users by 2023,TechRadar, 18 October 22. As of 2017, multiple vendors hadlaunched handset models withdedicated AI chips. These includeproprietary chips, which showsthe importance being placed onthis processor as a differentiator.For more information, seeWhy are smartphone chipssuddenly including an AIprocessor? Android Authority,30 September 2017: essor-803019/.23. Huawei boosts smartphone4G reliability and performancewith lattice semiconductortunable antenna solution, LatticeSemiconductor, 7 July ssReleases/2015/20150707Huawei.aspx.24. Android phone makers set tofollow Apple’s lead with FaceID, TechRadar, 8 October akers-set-tofollow-apples-lead-with-face-id.25. In June 2017, Qualcommannounced a fingerprint sensorthat can scan through glass,aluminium and metal. Qualcommannounces advanced fingerprintscanning and authenticationtechnology, Qualcomm, 28 June2017: -authentication.26. Superaccurate GPS chipscoming to smartphones in 2018,IEEE Spectrum, 21 September2017: es-in-2018.27. At the end of 2017, thelargest-size phone in termsof RAM was 6 GB. 2017Smartphone ComparisonGuide, New Atlas, 9 May aturescomparison-2017/49418/.28. For an explanation of how thisworks, big.LITTLE, arm Developer,as accessed on 6 November2017: https://developer.arm.com/technologies/big-little.
The future of the smartphone: the era of invisible innovation05Figure 3. Device preference for various activities, UK (2016 versus 2017)Question: Which, if any, is your preferred device for each of the following 465 Browse shopping websitesMake online purchasesOnline searchWatch short videosCheck bank balancesVideo callsCheck social networksRead the newsPlay gamesVoice calls using the Internet (VoIP)Take photosRecord videosStream films and/or TV seriesWatch TV programs via catch-up servicesWatch live TVWeighted base: Smartphone owners in 16 developed markets (22,929 respondents). The figure is the average of 16 countries in our study, namely Australia,Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden, UK and USASource: Deloitte’s Global Mobile Consumer Survey, developed markets, May–July 2017By the end of 2023, the smartphone is likelyto have assimilated various additional non-PCfunctions, serving as keys; office entry cards;and credit, debit and other stored-valuecards (including for transport). This will leadto smartphones being increasingly used toauthenticate access to physical and digitalenvironments, including homes, offices andhotel rooms,30 cars,31 buses,32 trains and planes;corporate information systems; and e-commerceand banking sites.Deloitte Global predicts that by 2023, over threequarters of all smartphone owners in developedcountries will use some form of biometricauthentication, and 80 percent of smartphoneswill have at least one dedicated biometric sensor,such as a fingerprint reader or a 3-D facialscanner.33 This compares with about 29 percentof owners who will use fingerprint authenticationin 2018, and a base of about 42 percent ofdevices with a dedicated fingerprint sensor.29. For more information, seeQi (standard), Wikipedia, asaccessed on 6 November 2017:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qi (standard).30. Hotel room access viasmartphone is already availablein some hotels as of 2017, butrollout is currently minimal.For more information, see“Frustrating” hotel room keycards could disappear within fiveyears, The Telegraph, 7 July n-five/.
The future of the smartphone: the era of invisible innovationThe smartphone’s deepening applicationsIn addition to being used for new functions,smartphones are likely to be used by morepeople and more often for functions they havealready absorbed: as MP3 and CD players, GPSnavigation systems and maps, fitness bandsand pedometers, compact and single-lensreflex (SLR) cameras,34 handheld game playersand puzzle books, boarding passes, andentertainment tickets.The caliber of photos and videos capturedon a smartphone should steadily improvethrough 2023 (see sidebar: The evolution of thesmartphone camera), increasing device usage andutility in both consumer and business contexts.In
16. Deloitte Global estimates that there will be 180 million units of smartphones sold by multiple vendors retailing at 1,000 or more (in US dollars, or when converted into US dollars) in 2023. We estimate that the average selling price will be 1,250 for this category, with the most expensive devices priced at close to 2,000. Deloitte Global’s
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