EU Air Quality And The Review Of The Thematic Strategy On .
EU Air Quality and the Review of theThematic Strategy on Air Pollution(State of Play and Outlook)Scott BROCKETTTeam LeaderDG Environment, Unit ENV.C3, Air Quality, and NoiseBrussels, February 2013
What We Have The International Air Quality Policy Framework The UNECE Convention on Long-Range Transboundary AirPollution (CLRTAP) and its Protocols (EMEP, Gothenburg, ) The knowledge base (EMEP, WGE, ) The EU Air Quality Policy Framework The 2005 Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution The National Emission Ceilings Directive The Ambient Air Quality Directives The EU Air Pollution Source Abatement Policy Framework National and Local Air Pollution Abatement Measures
What We Got Downward trends in (estimated) emissions not fully matched by(measured) air quality improvements: PM, NO2, 03 Significant compliance issues (AAQD, NECD, UN) despite additionaltime granted in 2008: PM, NOx, Almost one third of Europe's city dwellers are exposed to excessiveconcentrations of airborne particulate matter. Contribution of transport (road and off-road), small scale combustioninstallations (including domestic heating), and agriculture continue toparticularly significant (notably for urban air pollution). As science evolves, we learn that several air pollutants also haveshort-lived climate impacts whilst existsing health and environmentstandards have become obsolete.
Why We Got There Insufficient / ineffective national/local measures Too little too late (often until approaching TEN deadlines), Too much paper, not enough practice, Costs and other barriers (incl. background and competence issues) Insufficient / ineffective EU source legislation Road Transport (Real World Emissions, ) Non-Road Mobile Machinery (incl. rail and inland vessels) Small scale combustions (incl. domestic heating) Agriculture Insufficient / ineffective international action UNECE CLRTAP and Protocols (NEC, ELVs, ) IMO Marpol Annex VI (maritime shipping)
The review outlook Objectives for the review Resolve present compliance problems asap Adapt EU legislation to new UNECE Gothenburg Protocol Adapt medium strategic objectives and actions Options Public consultation open until 4 March[No Change / Relax conditions][Non-regulatory options][Reinforced EU source legislation][Reinforced NEC and/or AAQD]
The review analysis Baseline (up to 2030 – 2050) Dec '12 – Draft Final Mar ’13 –Final Drafts Scope for additional reduction (up to 2030) Maximum Technically Feasible Reduction Scenario Sectoral analysis (Road, Agri, SCI, Shipping, NRMM, ) (2nd) online-public consultation Dec '12 - Draft Final Mar ’13 – Final Draft Other Technical and Scientific Review (Aquila, Fairmode, WHO, ) Synergies (climate, competitiveness, innovation, ) Downscaling for better compliance checking Governance issues (local/national/EU/international/ )
The review analysisKey messages of analysis to date Emission projections Impact projections AQ Compliance projections Draft intermediate ambition scenarios Draft cost-benefit calculations Next steps (TSAP 2013)
Emission projections, TSAP 2012510Baseline - CLE4Baseline - MTFRDecarb - CLEMillion tons NOxMillion tons SO2Decarb - MCE32Baseline - CLE9Baseline - MTFR8Decarb - 020203020402050Blue ranges:TSAP-2012 CLEMTFRRed ranges:Decarb CLE-MCE95Baseline - CLE1.46Million tons VOC32Decarb - CLEDecarb - MCEDecarb - MCEMillion tons NH30.6Baseline - MTFR7Decarb - CLEDecarb - MCE0.88Baseline - MTFR4Decarb - CLE1.0Baseline - CLEBaseline - CLEBaseline - MTFR1.2Million tons PM2.5PRIMES 2010 andLow-carb 50VOC2010202020302040205020102020203020402050
2010450Years of life lost400350TSAP target for 2020: -47%300Million YOLLs2502001502020 CLE100502030 TFR-EU0BaselineLoss in statistical life expectancy (months)Impact projections, TSAP 2012202020202025202520302030Baseline implies 5 monthsshortening of statistical lifeexpectancy after 2020Additional MTFR measures couldsave 55 million years of life ofEuropean population
Impact projections, TSAP 2012Substantial margin for additional progress in the wedgebetween BL and MTFR: 55 million fewer years of life lost from PM 3000 fewer premature deaths from ozone 200 000 km2 additional ecosystem area protected fromeutrophication (around half the scope for improvement isin Natura 2000 sites) acidification problem on the way to be solved
Option 1: Baseline complianceprojection for 2020: NO2 Baseline reduces percentage ofmost problematic stations from15% in 2010 to 3% in 2020 Critical EURO6 performance
Option 1: Baseline complianceprojection for 2020: PM10 Baseline reduces percentage ofmost problematic stations from8% in 2010 to 3% in 2020 Localised problem areas (solid fuelsfor residential heating)
Factor 2 rangeNO2 compliance: Euro 6 sensitivityReference scenario: Euro 6 380 mg/km from 2015 and 120 mg/km from 2018.“Legislation”: Euro 6 80 mg/km from 2015. “Delayed steps”: As Reference, but Euro 6.2 only from2020 onwards. “Proportional reduction”: Euro 6 380 mg/km from 2015. “Euro 6 Euro 4”: Euro 6 730 mg/km from 2015
NO2 compliance: Euro 6 sensitivityStations 45 μg NO2/m32010: 2 in 3 traffic stationssafely within complianceBaseline scenario:2020: 9 in 10 traffic stations ok2030: 96 in 100 traffic stations okOREuro 6 Euro 4 scenario:2020: 8 in 10 traffic stations ok2030: 8 in 10 traffic stations okμg NO2/m3 4535-45 35201018621677220204399103220306351133Compliance beyond 2015depends crucially on level andtiming of real-drivingemissions from Euro 6 LDDV
Draft gap-closure scenariosfeasible gap closure per indicator100%90%PM healthO3 healthEutrophicationAcidification forestsAcidification water200080%‘Gap’ for this ual emissionsScope from Maximum Control EffortsMTFR measuresImprovement from 25202020502030202520202050203020250%2020Impacts relative to 200070%
Draft gap-closure scenariosSingle- and multi-effect optimizations15Health PMAcidification Single-effect gap-closure optimizations aremost costly for health impacts; ecosystemsimprovements are possible at lower costs Combined optimizations for 25/50/75% gapclosure; costs amount to 0.3, 2.2 and 8.5 bn /yr in 2025 E.g. in the high case, 75% of theenvironmental improvements offered byMTFR would be attained for 20% of the MTFR costs. Sensitivity analysis on marginal optimisationindicates potential for increased costefficiency (relaxing 10% on ozone could payfor more ambitious PM and eutrophicationtargets)EutrophicationCosts (million /yr)Ozone10All targets combined500%25%50%75%Gap closure relative to baseline100%5000YOLLAcidEutrSOMOMillion /yr40003000200010000-15%-10%-5%0%5%Change relative to 50% gap closure10%15%
Draft gap-closure scenariosRequired emission reductions andburden sharing among sectorsEmission reductionsrelative to baseline2025SO2Emission control costsby SNAP sector, 2025NOx PM2.5 NH3 VOC90%8-5%7-10%Billion ltureWasteNon-roadRoad transportSolventsFuel productionIndustr. ProcessesIndustr. CombustionDomesticPowerMeasures affect allpollutants Even in the ‘High’case there is a safedistance to MTFR Costs in 2025:0.3-2.2-8.5 bn Highest costs forthe domestic andsolvent sectors32Low caseMid caseHigh caseMTFR 10LOWMIDHIGH
Draft gap-closure scenariosSubsidiarity: EU-wide or national measures05Number of Member States10152025Selective non-catalytic reduction on other biomass and waste fuels for Process emissions - stage 3 NOx controlBan on open burning of agricultural or residentail wasteCombustion modification on oil and gas industrial boilers and furnacesCombustion modification on heavy fuel oil use in commercial sectorCombustion modification and selective non-catalytic reduction on Process emissions - stage 3 NOx controlCombustion modification on oil and gas industrial boilers and furnacesSelective catalytic reduction on new oil and gas power plantsCombustion modification on solid fuels fired industrial boilers and Combustion modification and selective non-catalytic reduction on oil Combustion modification on solid fuels fired industrial boilers and HIGHCombustion modification on solid fuels fired industrial boilers and MIDCombustion modification on oil and gas industrial boilers and furnacesCombustion modification on oil and gas industrial boilers and furnacesSelective catalytic reduction on new hard coal power plantsCombustion modification on oil and gas industrial boilers and furnacesCombustion modification on oil and gas industrial boilers and furnacesCombustion modification on oil and gas industrial boilers and furnacesCombustion modification on oil and gas industrial boilers and furnacesCombustion modification on solid fuels fired industrial boilers and Combustion modification on oil and gas industrial boilers and furnacesCombustion modification on oil and gas industrial boilers and furnacesCombustion modification on oil and gas industrial boilers and furnacesLOW
Draft CBA70,000Annual cost, benefit, M60,000 All-cause mortality HIA(to be revised followingWHO in January) Results presented incharts are for mostconservative estimate(lower bound VOLY) Possible revision followingmost recent OECD advice Preliminary analysisindicates positivemarginal benefits at leastup to around the 0LOWMIDHIGHMTFR50,00045,000Annual cost, benefit, ,0005,0000LOWMIDHIGHMTFR
Draft CBA: quantified incurred costs EFFECTS ON CROPS AND MATERIALS Include:– Effects of ozone on crops – Effects of acidity on‘utilitarian’ materials LABOUR ABSENTEISMIncluded in ‘Restrictedactivity days’Based on marginal value ofproductivityCAFE values: 98/day,– Materials and crops CBI (2011): 146/daycombined around only1% of health impacts Marginal benefit: 360M to 540M/year– For LOW scenarioaccount for 48% ofabatement costs ( 174MHealthcare costs currentlyvs 362M/year)under review– Figures currently underreview, suggestion oflarger effect for crops– Cultural heritage?
What we will deliver (tentative) EU Air Quality Strategy Updating the 2005 Thematic Strategy on Air PollutionStrategic impact and emission reduction objectives 2020/25/30Strategic actions for the period up to 2020 (with lasting effects) Legislative actions already under consideration Revision of the NECD (National Emissions Ceilings Directive)Euro-6 (including managed RWE) ( base case), "SULEV", Non-road emissions ( base case)Small scale combustion installations ( 50 MW) Non-legislative actions already under consideration uCLAP (Urban CLean Air Programme)iCLAP (International CLean Air Programme)CLIP (CLean air Innovation ProgrammeCLARA (CLean Air Research Agenda)
Thank you http://ec.europa.eu/environment/air/review air policy.htmPublic consultation accessible fromwebsite: closing date 4 March 2013
Impact projections, TSAP 2012 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 elineEU EU EU 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2020 2025 2025 2030 2030 s TSAP targetfor 2020: -47% . Gap closure relative to baseline Health PM Acidification Eutrophication Ozone All targets combined Draft gap-closure scenarios 0 1000 2000
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