1 Executive Summary 2 Project Overview 3 Platinum Market . - Energy
Table of Contents1Executive Summary2Project Overview3Platinum Market Overview4Future Demand Scenarios 2005-20505Econometric Modeling6AppendixD0034.2004-01-06 PGM Final Report.ppt0
AppendixSummary of Previous StudiesEconometric AnalysesVehicle ForecastsStationary Fuel Cell MarketsPlatinum MiningD0034.2004-01-06 PGM Final Report.ppt1
Previous StudiesAppendixIntroductionSeveral studies have modeled fuel cell vehicle market penetration and itseffect on platinum availability.Overview of Platinum Availability StudiesStudyTIAX LLC, 2003g Pt per FCV60 g Pt (2005)15 g Pt (2025)FCV PowerFCV Life75 kW10 year life,plus recycling at95% efficiencyRåde Doctoral ThesisChalmers University of Technology& Göteborg University, 200119 g Pt50 kWFCV Market PenetrationTwo scenarios:1) 50% penetration in 20502) 80% penetration in 2050100% penetration in 2100 (global)10 year life,plus recycling400 million FCV annual productionBest case: 100% in 2070(US fleet growth 25.3 millionFCV/year in 2050)BorgwardtU.S. Environmental Protection AgencyTransportation Research Part DJournal Article, 2001Tonn and Das22 g Pt50 kWWorst case: 100% in 2150(US fleet growth 10 million FCV/yearin 2150)Low - 5 g PtLow - 6% in 2030 (US)Oak Ridge National LaboratoryAssessment of platinum availability foradvanced fuel cell vehicles.Med - 10 g PtReport, 2001High - 30 g PtWorld Fuel Cell Council(Formerly the Platinum Association)15 year life,plus recycling14 g Pt50 kWRecycling at FCVend of lifeMed - 20% in 2030 (US)High - 60% in 2030 (US)70 kW10 year life,plus recyclingAssumes 1 billion FCVs in 2030,WorldwideD0034.2004-01-06 PGM Final Report.ppt2
Previous StudiesAppendixResource EstimatesMost published studies indicate that platinum availability will be a concern.Overview of Platinum Availability StudiesStudyResourcesRåde Doctoral ThesisChalmers University of Technology& Göteborg University, 200167 Gg in PtresourcesBorgwardtU.S. Environmental ProtectionAgencyTransportation Research Part DJournal Article, 200147,500 tonnes(47.5 Gg) in PtresourcesConclusions“In the baseline scenario, the demand for primary platinum in the 21st centuryamounts to 156 Gg, and current reserves and identified resources of platinumwould be depleted in the 2050’s and 2060’s, respectively.”Unrestricted US fleet conversion to FCVs would require 66 years and 10,800tonnes of Pt. If US Pt consumption remains at its current level of 16% of annualworld production, fleet conversion would require 146 years and 15,200 tonnes of Pt.“These results imply that, without alternative catalysts, fuel cells alone cannotadequately address the issue facing the current system of road transport.”Tonn and DasOak Ridge National LaboratoryAssessment of platinum availabilityfor advanced fuel cell vehicles.Report, 2001World Fuel Cell Council(Formerly the Platinum Association)CawthornUniversity of WitwatersrandGlobal Platinum and PalladiumDepositsReview, 20011TIAX100 Gg in PGMreserves 50 Gg in Ptreserves11.5 billion troz(47 Gg) in Ptresources4,705 Mozs inPGM deposits 73 Gg in Ptdeposits1Under the worst case scenario, half of known PGM reserves are exhaustedbefore mid-century. This scenario is characterized by a high demand for newvehicles in the developing countries and high penetration of reformer-equipped fuelcell vehicles with relatively high amounts of PGMs.1 billion car fleet corresponds 450 million troy ounces of platinum.With 95% recycling, 2 million troy ounces a year required to maintain global fleet(currently, autocatalyst requires 1.6 million/yr).“At an increase consumption rate of 6% per year, there are adequate indicatedresources of PGE in the Bushveld Complex alone to supply demand for thenext 50 years.”estimate based on 50% Pt in total PGM resources and 31.1 g/ozD0034.2004-01-06 PGM Final Report.ppt3
AppendixSummary of Previous StudiesEconometric AnalysesVehicle ForecastsStationary Fuel Cell MarketsPlatinum MiningD0034.2004-01-06 PGM Final Report.ppt4
Econometric AnalysesAppendixIntroductionWe conducted a series of econometric analyses to model platinum supply,demand and price.Econometric Analyses 1 Platinum Jewelry Demand: Both Japan and the world 2 Total World Demand for Platinum: All uses of platinum 3 Platinum Supply World demand for autocatalyst and investment were not modeled separately because:– Price elasticity of demand for platinum from autocatalyst is derived from a conceptualmodel of the general equilibrium derived demand.- Autocatalyst use is required by regulation.- Autocatalyst accounts for only a very small proportion of total car manufacturingcosts.– Investment demand for platinum only accounts for a relative small proportion of totaldemand for platinum.D0034.2004-01-06 PGM Final Report.ppt5
Econometric AnalysesAppendixPlatinum Jewelry DemandPlatinum Jewelry Demand: Japan has been the largest market for platinumjewelry, but demand has been affected by Japan’s economic slowdown. Inthe meantime, platinum jewelry demand has grown sharply in China,reaching 1.3 million troy ounces (40 Mg) in 2001.Jewelry Market Share by Region (%)Jewelry Demand (%)100.0%North %30.0%Largely due toincreasedChina urce: Johnson Matthey, Platinum 2001.D0034.2004-01-06 PGM Final Report.ppt6
Econometric AnalysesPlatinum Jewelry DemandAppendixThe predictive power of the jewelry demand model based on the Japanesemarket can be questioned given Japan’s decreasing share in the worldplatinum jewelry market. However, we believe that the model providedvaluable insight into market dynamics. The jewelry demand model helps to illustrate the relationship between demandand other economic variables and estimate the potential impact of thesevariables on the demand for platinum jewelry. There are similarities in the development of the platinum jewelry market inJapan and China:– Both governments had restrictions on gold ownership that gave anopportunity for platinum to penetrate into these jewelry markets. Thesubsequent lifting of restrictions allowed more substitution between platinumand gold jewelry.– Both countries have experienced rapid economic growth and newly createdwealth drives jewelry markets.D0034.2004-01-06 PGM Final Report.ppt7
Econometric AnalysesPlatinum Jewelry DemandAppendixThe following factors were included in our models of platinum jewelrydemand for the world and Japan. Quantity of demand for platinum jewelry GDP (gross domestic product) Price of platinum Price of gold Inflation The amount of promotion (advertising) is also an important factor in this marketsegment; however, this information was not available for analysis.D0034.2004-01-06 PGM Final Report.ppt8
Econometric AnalysesPlatinum Jewelry DemandAppendixModel SpecificationThe jewelry demand models for the world and Japan were specified ectInflationEffectOther PriceEffectl nDt , j α β1l nDt 1, j β 2 l nPt , pt β 3l nGDPt β 4 l n inf lt β 5l nPt , Au ε tDt,jQuantity of demand for platinum jewelry attime tDt-1,jQuantity of demand for platinum jewelry attime t-1GDPtGross Domestic Product at time tPt,ptPlatinum price at time tPt,AuPrice of gold at time tInfltαInflation at time tQuantity of demand for platinum jewelrygiven other variables are equal to zeroβ1Impact of previous platinum jewelryconsumption on current quantity of jewelrydemandβ2Price elasticity of demand for platinumjewelry—measures the sensitivity of quantitydemanded to a price changeβ3Income elasticity of demand for platinumjewelry—measures the sensitivity of platinumjewelry consumption to an income changeβ4Measures the sensitivity of quantity demandedto a change in inflationβ5Cross price elasticity of demand of platinumjewelry with respect to gold price—measuresthe sensitivity of platinum demand to a changein gold priceD0034.2004-01-06 PGM Final Report.ppt9
Econometric AnalysesPlatinum Jewelry DemandAppendixModel Estimation & Statistical InferenceThe world and Japan jewelry demand models produced the followingestimated parameters and standard deviations, helping to identify the impactof each factor on the direction and magnitude of platinum jewelry InflationEffectλnDt , j α β1λnDt 1, j β 2 λnPt , pt β 3λnGDPt β 4 λn inf lt ε )0.48(0.13)-0.33(0.09)0.92(0.25)0. 20(0.90)Worldlong-run*(std. (1.43)The chronological definition provided for “short-run” and “long-run” is not precise. The general purpose ofthe distinction is to differentiate between a short period, where it is impossible for consumers to makeadjustments, and a longer period, where consumers have more freedom to make adjustments.Note: The parameters for the short-run jewelry demand were estimated from the data. Parameters for the “long-run”jewelry demand were derived by adjusting short-run estimates based on the previous year’s jewelryconsumption.D0034.2004-01-06 PGM Final Report.ppt10
Econometric AnalysesPlatinum Jewelry DemandWorld Demand PredictionAppendixThe predictive power of the world platinum jewelry demand model wasverified by predicting the quantity demanded outside the sample period. We pretended that the quantity demanded for platinum jewelry was not available from1999 to 2000 and the model was used to forecast those two years. We then comparedthe real quantity of demand for platinum jewelry with the model predictions. The differences were about 10%.Actual World Jewelry Demand vs. Model’s PredictionQuantity Demand forPlatinum Jewelry(troy oz.)35000003000000Actual Jewelry 0197519801985199019952000YearD0034.2004-01-06 PGM Final Report.ppt11
Econometric AnalysesPlatinum Jewelry DemandJapan Demand PredictionAppendixThe predictive power of the Japan demand model was verified by predictingquantity demanded for platinum jewelry outside the sample period. We pretended that the quantity demanded for platinum jewelry was not available from1999 to 2000 and the model was used to forecast for these two years. Then wecompared the real quantity of demand for platinum jewelry with the model predictions. The differences were about 0.1%.Actual Japan Jewelry Demand vs. Model’s PredictionPer Capita Demand forPlatinum Jewelry(troy oz.)1.0131.012Actual Jewelry Demand/Per 1-06 PGM Final Report.ppt12
Econometric AnalysesPlatinum Jewelry DemandPrice Elasticity of DemandAppendixThe demand for platinum jewelry is not elastic1, i.e., even when the price ishigh the quantity demanded will remain high. Both the world’s and Japan’s price elasticities of demand for platinum jewelry areinelastic (-0.33 and -0.62 in short-run, and -0.63 for the World in long-run). That is, a 1percent increase in price will result in a 0.33 to 0.63 percent decline in demand. Several publications have stated that demand for platinum jewelry is elastic.– “Demand for platinum in jewelry, its number one use, is ostensibly fairly elastic in thatthere are ready substitutes such as gold, white gold, silver and plated precious metalcoatings.”2 Overstated price elasticity may result from misconceptions rather than data analysis.These authors may believe that platinum jewelry is not a necessity and, therefore, theprice elasticity of demand for platinum jewelry would be high. The less elastic demand of platinum jewelry can be attributed to the fact that demand isdriven by the bridal market, which is less price sensitive since the cost of a wedding ringonly accounts for a small share of the wedding cost.1) For the price to be considered “elastic”, a 1 percent increase in price would result in a decline in demand of more than 1 percent.2) Pearse, Gary H.K., Equapolar Publications, “Platinum Group Metals World Resources Economics of the Future”D0034.2004-01-06 PGM Final Report.ppt13
Econometric AnalysesPlatinum Jewelry DemandInfluence of InflationAppendixThe model does not indicate that there is a statistically significantrelationship between platinum jewelry demand and inflation. Estimates of the impact of inflation on platinum jewelry demand for both theworld and Japan yielded positive signs, i.e., the quantity demanded could bepositively correlated with inflation. However, neither estimate is statistically significant.D0034.2004-01-06 PGM Final Report.ppt14
Econometric AnalysesPlatinum Jewelry DemandAppendixCross Price ElasticityWe were not able to estimate the cross price elasticity between gold andplatinum jewelry because the price of gold and platinum are highlycorrelated during the period of this study (the coefficient of correlation isabout 0.8).Prices of Platinum vs. GoldPrice per Troy Oz. (US 9801985199019952000YearD0034.2004-01-06 PGM Final Report.ppt15
Econometric AnalysesPlatinum Jewelry DemandCross Price ElasticityAppendixEven though we were not able to estimate the cross price elasticitybetween gold and platinum jewelry, substitution between platinum andgold* is well known and has been observed by the International PlatinumAssociation. “ the recent economic decline in Japan coupled with a widening disparitybetween the price of gold and platinum together with technical improvementshave led recently to increasing substitution of white gold for platinum ” “Another element in the success of platinum jewelry in China has been thesuccessful promotion campaign of the Platinum International Guild. However,these campaigns have not yet established the wedding market to anywherenear the same extent as in Japan. Platinum jewelry in China has much more ofa fashion element attached to it making it more susceptible to price sensitivityand substitution by white gold than Japan”*** The price of gold and platinum were highly correlated during the period of the study. The correlation coefficient is about 0.8.** International Platinum Association, letter from Marcus Nurdin to Eric Carlson (TIAX), 12/13/02.D0034.2004-01-06 PGM Final Report.ppt16
Econometric AnalysesTotal World Demand for PlatinumAppendixTotal World Demand for Platinum: The objective of our analysis of theworld platinum demand was to better understand the relationship betweenplatinum demand and other economic variables across all markets. The following factors were addressed in our model of world platinum demand:– GDP (gross domestic product)– Price of platinum– Price of palladiumD0034.2004-01-06 PGM Final Report.ppt17
Econometric AnalysesTotal World Demand for PlatinumModel SpecificationAppendixThe model of total world demand for platinum model was specified ectOther PriceEffectλnDt , pt α β1λnDt 1 , pt β 2 λnPt , pt β 3λnGDPt β 4 λnPt , pd ε tDt,ptDt-1,ptGDPtTotal world demand for platinum at time tImpact of previous platinum demand oncurrent quantity of platinum demandβ2Price elasticity of demand for platinum—measures the sensitivity of quantity demandedto a platinum price changeβ3Income elasticity of demand for platinum—measures the sensitivity of platinumdemanded to a change in incomeβ4Cross price elasticity of demand for platinumwith respect to palladium price—measures thesensitivity of quantity demand for platinum to achange in palladium priceTotal world demand for platinum at time t-1Gross Domestic Product at time tPt,ptPlatinum price at time tPt,pdPalladium price at time tαβ1Total world demand for platinum given othervariables are equal to zeroD0034.2004-01-06 PGM Final Report.ppt18
AppendixEconometric AnalysesTotal World Demand for PlatinumModel Estimation & Statistical InferenceThe total world platinum demand model produced the following estimatedparameters and their standard fectOther PriceEffectλnDt , pt α β1λnDt 1, pt β 2 λnPt , pt β 3λnGDPt β 4 λnPt , pd ε t*αβ1β2β3β4Worldshort-run*(std. dev.)4.66(2.24)0.70(0.20)-0.344(0.12)0.25(0.20)0. 20(0.12)Worldlong-run*(std. dev.)NANA-1.15(0.18)0.83(0.63)0.66(0.12)The chronological definition provided for “short-run” and “long-run” is not precise. The generalpurpose of the distinction is to differentiate between a short period, when it is impossible forconsumers to make adjustments, and a longer period, when consumers have more freedom tomake adjustments.Note: The parameters for the short-run jewelry demand model were estimated from the data. Parameters for the“long-run” jewelry demand model were derived from the short-run parameters by adjusting estimates basedon the previous year’s jewelry consumption.D0034.2004-01-06 PGM Final Report.ppt19
Econometric AnalysesTotal World Demand for PlatinumAppendixPredictionThe predictive power of the total world platinum demand model wasverified by predicting the quantity demanded outside the sample period. We pretended that the total quantity of demand was not available from 1999 to 2000 andthe model was used to forecast those two years. We then compared the real totalquantity of demand with the model predictions. The differences, about 25%, are larger than the differences observed in the predictionsof the other two models because of the use of highly aggregated data in this model.Actual World Total Platinum Demand vs. Model’s PredictionTotal Demand forPlatinum(troy oz.)100000009000000Actual Platinum rD0034.2004-01-06 PGM Final Report.ppt20
Econometric AnalysesTotal World Demand for PlatinumPrice Elasticity of DemandAppendixThe short-run price elasticity of total world demand for platinum isinelastic; however, the long-run price elasticity is elastic. Price elasticity of total world platinum demand has the expected negative signand is significant (i.e., when platinum price increases, the quantity demandedfalls). In the short-run, the price elasticity of demand for platinum is not elastic(-0.66). The quantity demanded is not very responsive to a price change,reflecting the reality that it is difficult to find a substitute metal for platinum inthe short-run. In the long-run, the price elasticity of demand for platinum is elastic (-1.129),indicating that in the long-run, as technology progresses, it is easier to identifysubstitutes for platinum to respond a price change.D0034.2004-01-06 PGM Final Report.ppt21
Econometric AnalysesTotal World Demand for PlatinumIncome Elasticity of Demand AppendixThe total world demand for platinum responds positively to theperformance of the world economy—the quantity demanded increases asthe total income increases. However, the two factors that influence the total world platinum demand(i.e., the world GDP index and the total world platinum demand in previousperiods) are highly correlated (coefficient of correlation is about 0.85). As aresult, the standard error for income elasticity is very large.Log (GDP) & Log (Demand forPlatinum at t-1)181614Log(GDP)12Log(Demand forPlatinum at 01-06 PGM Final Report.ppt22
AppendixEconometric AnalysesTotal World Demand for PlatinumCross Price Elasticity of DemandThe cross price elasticity of platinum with respect to palladium is larger inthe long-run than in the short-run. Unlike the relationship between platinum price and gold price, platinum priceand palladium price are not highly correlated during the period we studied.Therefore, we are able to estimate the cross price elasticity of platinumdemand with respect to the palladium price. The cross price elasticity has the expected positive sign and is significant,indicating that the two metals are substitutes in some applications, such ascatalytic converters. In the short run, the degree of substitution is small (0.19), i.e., a 1 percentincrease in the price of palladium will result in a 0.19 percent increase indemand for platinum. The low level of substitution is due to time, cost andtechnical limitations. In the long run, the degree of substitution increases (0.65), i.e., a 1 percentincrease in the price of palladium will result in a 0.65 percent increase indemand for platinum. The level of substitution is higher because of the timeavailable for users to adopt new technology.D0034.2004-01-06 PGM Final Report.ppt23
Econometric AnalysesPlatinum SupplyAppendixPlatinum Supply: The objective of our analysis of platinum supply was tobetter understand the relationship between platinum price and supply. We were not able to develop a structural model for platinum supply becauseneeded information was not available. A structural model would need to includethe information described below:– Proven reserves– Mine and refinery capacity– Mine and refinery capacity utilization– Production cost– Changes in inventory– Secondary supplyD0034.2004-01-06 PGM Final Report.ppt24
Econometric AnalysesPlatinum SupplyAppendixDue to the lack of information needed to estimate a complete structuralplatinum supply model, two related analyses were pursued. 1Analyze the real platinum price on world market.– We conclude that there is no strong evidence that real platinum priceshave trended upward during the 20th century. This result suggests thatplatinum supply is elastic and future increases in demand for platinumcan be met without large change in real price. 2Estimate a distributed lag relationship between real platinum priceseries and quantities produced.– An exogenous increase in platinum production is modeled as affectingcurrent platinum price through its effect on the current marginal costs ofmining and refining. Such an increase could continue to affect platinumprice for some period into the future because of the time required toadjust capital stocks to new levels of price.D0034.2004-01-06 PGM Final Report.ppt25
Econometric AnalysesAppendixPlatinum SupplyWhile platinum production has trended up for the period of the study, thereal price of platinum has been fairly constant.1.21601200.6100800.460World Production (Mg)0.8140400.2Real Rand per Troy Ounce1.0x 104World Production and Real SA pt Price: 1960-2000200.0World production (scaled to fit)South Africa Price (Real rand/troy oz.)19641968Sources:Production: Johnson Matthey19721976198019841988199219962000Price: U.S. Geological SurveySouth Africa producer price index, South Africa Reserve BankD0034.2004-01-06 PGM Final Report.ppt26
Econometric AnalysesPlatinum SupplyAppendixModel SpecificationAn inverse platinum supply function is specified to include the time that theindustry takes to increase supplies following an increased, permanentchange in demand on the right-hand and the level of price on the left-handside. The response to a permanent change in Qt (say due to increased fuel cell use)would be ao in the first year, a1 in the second year, etc. If it took five years forthe platinum industry to arrive at the long run desired production level, then theprice effects would be non-zero for five years and zero thereafter.Pt ao (Qt Qt 1 ) a1 (Qt 1 Qt 2 ) . DM t ε tPtQt, Qt-1, Qt-2, Qt-1DMtao, a1, anReal USGS (dollar-denominated) platinum price multiplied by the South African randequivalent of the U.S. dollar and divided by the South African Producer Price Index.Contemporaneous quantity of world production and its lags.Dummy variable indicating years in which there were supply interruptions. The years in whichthe supply disruption variable equal one is 1965-1968, 1978-1980, 1986, and 1997-1999. Inall, the supply disruption dummy variable equals one for 31% of the 35-year sample period.Price response to a permanent change in quantityD0034.2004-01-06 PGM Final Report.ppt27
Econometric AnalysesPlatinum SupplyConclusionsAppendixBecause of the lack of sufficient data to estimate a complete structuralsupply model, a reduced form supply model was estimated. The estimated results are weak; however, there is some evidence that:– Long-run supply is elastic (supply has been able to meet the demand tokeep the real platinum price constant over the last century).– An exogenous increase in quantity has a positive effect on platinum pricefor a short time (2 or 3 year periods) and then the effect fades away.– Supply interruption has a larger impact on platinum price.D0034.2004-01-06 PGM Final Report.ppt28
Econometric AnalysesAppendixEquilibrium Displacement SimulationWe simulated the impact of FCV demand on platinum price, using theresults from our econometric models, the price elasticity of platinumautocatalyst demand*, and hypothetical FCV demand. The simulation model was specified as follows:FCdPQ P ε QA η QJ η QO η Q A Q J Q OS QTotal quantity of Pt soldQAQShare of automotive use of PtQJQShare of jewelry use of PtQoQShare of other use of PtFCQHypothetical fraction of total Pt consumptionby fuel cell useηΑThe elasticity of demand for Pt in automotiveuse*ηjThe elasticity of demand for Pt jewelryηoThe elasticity of demand for other useεsPrice elasticity of supply of PtThis model is the fundamental link among all parts of the simulation model.* Obtained from a conceptual model of the general equilibrium derived demand. Derivation is available upon request.D0034.2004-01-06 PGM Final Report.ppt29
Econometric AnalysesAppendixSimulation ModelWe used a hypothetical demand scenario for FCVs to assess the impact ofincreased demand for platinum on price.Year of fuel cell Fuel cell 05.005.005.00Pt sed fuelFuel cell use ofcell use of Pt inPt (milliontotal PtTroy t 6 PGM Final Report.ppt30
Econometric AnalysesAppendixSimulation ModelThe simulation illustrates that increased platinum demand will increase theprice in the short-run, but in the long-run the price will return to its base levelonce supply catches up with demand.Simulation 2: Volatile Platinum DemandPercent Change from Initial Year35%Price Change30%Fuel Cell Use of Platinum25%20%15%10%5%0%024Price increases torespond to increaseddemandInitial increase in Ptdemand from fuelcell vehiclesPt supply catchesup to demand,price declines6Year8Greater Pt priceincrease to respond toincreased demand10Pt supply catches upto demand, pricedeclines1213Pt price returnsto its basepriceMore rapid growth infuel cell vehicleproductionD0034.2004-01-06 PGM Final Report.ppt31
Econometric AnalysesSimulation ModelConclusionsAppendixThe simulation model helps to highlight the following issues related to theimpact of future FCV demand for platinum on price. Future demand for platinum from FCVs could drive up the price of platinum by20 to 30 percent over its base price. A gradual adoption of fuel cell technology would minimize the pressure onplatinum market and minimize the impact on platinum prices. Price declines over time are due to more elastic long-run supply and demand.The supply side has enough time to increase production and capacity and thedemand side has the time to improve technology, to reduce platinum loading,or find alternatives.Other factors outside the scope of our models could have an even moresignificant impact on platinum price than new FCV demand. For example, even without demand from FCVs the 12/17/03 platinum price was 840/oz (53% higher than the long-term mean) as a result of a supply/demandimbalance and other market factors.D0034.2004-01-06 PGM Final Report.ppt32
AppendixSummary of Previous StudiesEconometric AnalysesVehicle ForecastsStationary Fuel Cell MarketsPlatinum MiningD0034.2004-01-06 PGM Final Report.ppt33
Vehicle ForecastsAppendixVehicle EstimatesAn increasing population in the US leads to increasing vehicle sales in amature market.US Vehicle aelhicVectionProjeEOD2500.84 veh/cap0.83 veh/cap103002001500.67 veh/cap100501980Total Population (millions)Vehicle Market (million unit sales)355020002020204002060Sources: United Nations, Ward’s, DOE Energy Information Administration* Vehicle Turnover Period 15.5 yearsD0034.2004-01-06 PGM Final Report.ppt34
Vehicle ForecastsAppendixVehicle EstimatesThe Western European market is mature, but the rise in vehicle per capitaownership offsets the effect of a projected decrease in population.Western Europe Vehicle Market350Population30020nrojectioDOE PSales Forecast250Vehicle Sales150.7 veh/cap0.6 veh/cap0.5 veh/cap200150101005Total Population (millions)Vehicle Market (million unit sales)25500198020002020204002060Sources: United Nations, Ward’s, DOE Energy Information Administration* Vehicle Turnover Period 11.5 yearsD0034.2004-01-06 PGM Final Report.ppt35
Vehicle ForecastsAppendixVehicle EstimatesThe Japanese market trend is similar to Western Europe in our vehiclesales estimate.Japan Vehicle Market12140120108Vehicle SalesnrojectioDOE P100Sales Forecast8060.64 veh/cap0.6 veh/cap0.7 veh/cap44020198060Total Population (millions)Vehicle Market (million unit sales)Population2020002020204002060Sources: United Nations, Ward’s, DOE Energy Information Administration* Vehicle Turnover Period 10 yearsD0034.2004-01-06 PGM Final Report.ppt36
Vehicle ForecastsAppendixVehicle EstimatesThe Chinese market has the potential to surpass the United statesassuming vehicles per capita continues to rise with increasing GDP.China Vehicle Market500.50 veh/cap401,200Forecast35Sales30251,0000.25 veh/cap800ForecastUS Vehicl
D0034.2004-01-06 PGM Final Report.ppt 5 Econometric Analyses Introduction Appendix We conducted a series of econometric analyses to model platinum supply, demand and price. 1 Platinum Jewelry Demand: Both Japan and the world 2 Total World Demand for Platinum: All uses of platinum Economeetric Analtric Analyses 3 Platinum Supply
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