Chapter 4. Financial Planning, Taxation, And The Efficiency Of .

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Chapter 4. Financial Planning, Taxation, and the Efficiency of Financial Market 1. Reading Chapters 4 and 5 The process of financial planning 2. Assets allocation 3. Taxation 4. Pension plans 5. The efficient market hypothesis 2 1. The Process of Financial Planning Financial Goals and Resources Possible goals: Financial planning is a process in which the individual Specifies financial goals Identifies financial resources and obligations Allocates assets into a diversified portfolio to meet the goals Emergency needs, Large-item purchases, Education, Retirement Consider financial life cycle: Accumulation, Preservation, Use of accumulated assets Identify resources and obligations: Two financial statements The process is affected by external factors such as Inflation Taxation Changes in family circumstances A balance sheet: enumerates what is owned (assets) and owed (liability) Textbook Exhibit 4.1 on page 96 shows an example of a balance sheet. A cash budget (income and expense report): enumerates cash receipts (income) and disbursements (expenditures) Textbook Exhibit 4.2 on page 97 shows an example of a cash budget. 3 2. Assets Allocation 4 3. Taxation Once goals are established and resources identified, Taxation occurs at many levels: federal, state, and local one needs to construct a portfolio to meet those goals. Optional portfolio is a diversified portfolio that can meet the identified financial goals. The process of constructing such a portfolio is called assets allocation. We limit discussion here to federal taxation and taxes that affect investment decisions 5 6 1

3.1. The Tax Base 3.2. The Tax Structure Different taxing philosophies Progressive: Tax rate increases as tax base increases. Regressive: Tax rate decreases as tax base increases. Proportional: Tax rate remains constant as tax base increases. What is taxed – Potentially there are three tax bases Hypothetical Example of Progressive, Regressive, and One’s income (e.g. income tax) Proportional Taxation One’s wealth (e.g. property tax, estate tax) One’s consumption (e.g. sales tax, gas tax) The tax that affects investment decisions the most Income is income tax 10,000 30,000 50,000 70,000 Tax on investment earnings (interest capital gains) Progressive Tax Tax in Rate 10% 1,000 12% 3,600 15% 7,500 20% 14,000 Regressive Tax Tax in Rate 10% 1,000 9% 2,700 8% 4,000 7% 4,900 Proportional Tax Tax in Rate 10% 1,000 10% 3,000 10% 5,000 10% 7,000 7 3.3. The Federal Personal Income Tax 8 3.4. Tax Shelters A tax shelter is an asset or investment that In the U.S. the federal income tax structure is defers, reduces, or avoids taxation. progressive. Tax rates (brackets) in 2012: 10% - 35% Unlike tax fraud, which is illegal, tax shelters are legal. http://taxes.about.com/od/Federal-Income- Taxes/qt/Tax-Rates-For-The-2012-Tax-Year.htm E.g., Municipal bonds are a tax shelter. By law, interest earned from municipal bonds are exempt from federal income taxation. E.g., Individual retirement arrangements (IRAs) are a tax shelter. By law, interest earned in traditional IRAs are not taxed until one takes the money out for retirement (deferred tax). Marginal tax: The tax rate paid on an additional last dollar of taxable income. E.g., If you are filing single and your taxable income is 27,225 in 2012, your marginal tax rate is 15%. That means if you earn an additional 1 in interest, you pay 15 cents of it as federal income tax. 9 10 Capital Gains – Taxed Only Realized. 3.5. Capital Gains and Losses Many investments are bought and subsequently sold. If the sale results in a profit, it is called a capital gain. If the sale results in a loss, it is called a capital loss. For tax purposes, capital gains and losses are classified into two categories Capital gains are only taxed once realized If your stock has lost (gained) value this year, but you do not sell it, you only have paper loss (gain), not realized loss (gain). Short-term: holding period is one year or less. Long-term: holding period is more than one year. Tax rates: May hold an asset indefinitely and avoid capital gain taxes. Short-term capital gains tax rate is the investor's marginal tax rate Long-term capital gains tax rate is lower:, up to 15% depending on the tax payer’s marginal tax bracket. 11 12 2

Capital Losses Capital Losses If the investor uses a net capital loss to offset income Capital losses can be used to offset capital gains in from other sources, only 3,000 of capital loss is allowed for a given year. Losses exceeding 3,000 are carried forward to future years E.g., If John and Mary as a couple has a 5,500 net capital loss for this year, they can use 3,000 of this 5,500 to offset their other income. The remaining 2,500 is carried forward to next year to offset next year’s capital gains, or other income if there is no capital gain next year. tax filings. The order of offsetting gains and losses: First, short-term losses offset short-term gains Second, long-term losses offset long-term gains Third, net short-term losses offset long-term gains or net long-term losses offset short-term gains Fourth, net short-term or long-term losses are used to offset income from other sources. 13 Capital Gains and Losses – The Wash Sale Rule 14 4.Tax-Advantaged Pension Plans The wash sale rule prevents you from claiming a loss on a Traditional IRAs (Deductible IRAs) sale of stock if you buy replacement stock within 30 days before or after the sale. Example: Roth IRAs (Nondeductible IRAs) 3/5/2012: Buy 100 shares of ABC stock. Price 50/share. Total Keogh accounts Share price goes down. 12/1/2012: Sell 100 shares of ABC stock. Price 20/share. Total 401(k) plans and 403(b) plans investment 5,000. SEPs capital loss 3,000. 12/5/2012: Buy 100 shares of ABC stock. Price 20/share. Total investment 2,000. This is a wash sale. The wash sale rule dictates that you cannot claim the 3,000 loss as a capital loss for tax purposes because your loss is not actually realized. 15 4.1. Deductible Traditional IRAs 16 4.2. Non-deductible Roth IRA Traditional IRA allows you to deduct some or all of your retirement contributions from your taxable income Amounts in your IRA, including earnings, generally are not taxed until distributed. Penalty for early withdrawal before age 59 ½. There are contribution limits and income eligibility rules. For 2012, contribution limit is 5,000 annually. For 2012, if a single person’s adjusted gross income (AGI) is Created in 1997 and named after its sponsor Senator Roth from Delaware. Contributions are NOT deductible from income. However any earnings from investments are tax free at withdrawal. Penalty for withdrawal before age 59 ½. Contribution limit and income eligibility limit apply: For 2012, contribution limit is 5,000 annually. For 2012, if a single person’s adjusted gross income (AGI) is more than 68,000 then s/he is not eligible. Assets in the account are selected by the individual. For details, go to more than 125,000 then s/he is not eligible. For more information please go to http://www.irs.gov/publications/p590/ch01.html http://www.irs.gov/publications/p590/ch02.html 17 18 3

Traditional (Deductable) Versus the Roth (Nondeductible) IRA 4.3. Keogh Accounts Keogh accounts are a retirement plan for the self- Depending on one’s marginal tax rate, both in terms of current rate and tax rate at retirement, one plan can work better for a particular individual than the other. employed. Established in 1962 and named after then U.S. Representative Eugene James Keogh Works just like a traditional IRA – deductible and tax deferred. If your current marginal tax rate is higher than your retirement rate, then the traditional IRA is better. If your current marginal tax rate is lower than your retirement rate, then the Roth IRA is better. Contribution limit: 25% of net income or 50,000 (in 2012), whichever is smaller. Limit is adjusted for inflation so it changes every year. The concept of net income is a bit confusing. Different income eligibilities Net income Total income – Contribution. 25% of Net income 20% of Total income So the effective contribution limit is 20% of total income Roth has a higher income limit than traditional 19 4.4. 401(k) and 403(b) Plans 20 4.5. Other Retirement Plans Retirement plans offered by an employer. Assets in SEPs: Simplified Employee Plan the account are chosen from alternatives determined by the employer. Participation by employee may be voluntary. Employer may match employee contributions. Both the deductable (traditional) or the nondeductable (Roth) types are possible 401(k) is typically for for-profit organizations. 403(b) is usually for non-profit organizations, like the University of Utah. SIMPLE: Savings Incentive Match Plan for Employees of Small Employers 21 4.6. Tax-Deferred Annuities 22 4.7. Life Insurance Annuities are contracts for series of future payments E.g., You purchase an annuity for 100,000 that will pay you 10,000 per year for 15 years after you retire. Difference between Tax-deferred annuities are often sold by life insurance Growth in cash value not currently taxable. They Face value: An insurance policy’s death benefits Cash value: The amount you can receive if you cancel the policy. companies. are taxable only when received. This means this is tax-deferred. Death benefits: not taxable to beneficiary Tax-deferred annuity has two components: A period in which funds accumulate, tax free, and A period in which payments are made by the insurance company to the owner of the annuity. Funds are taxed at the time of distribution. 23 24 4

5. The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) The Efficient Market Hypothesis is a theory that stock prices correctly measure the firm’s future earnings and dividends and that investors should not consistently outperform the market on a risk-adjusted basis. 5.1. Assumptions Concerning Efficient Markets Three assumptions: Large number of competing participants Information is readily available Transaction costs are small. Because these three conditions are generally met, the EMH argues that a stock’s price adjusts rapidly to new information and must reflect all known information concerning the firm. 25 26 5.2. Random Walk 5.3. The Speed of Price Adjustments and Degree of Market Efficiency Because market is efficient and prices adjust rapidly to new information, day-to-day price changes will follow in a random walk over time. Random walk is a mathematical formalization of a trajectory that consists of taking successive random steps. Random walk essentially means that Price changes are unpredictable Patterns formed are accidental EMH suggests that prices adjust rapidly to new information. However, if there are inefficiencies in the market, then some investors may be able to take advantages of these inefficiencies. Evidence shows that the market is generally efficient. But how efficient? There are three forms of the Efficient Market Hypothesis: Random walk does not imply stock prices are randomly the weak form determined. The focus is that day-to-day price changes are random. the semi-strong form the strong form 27 28 5.3.1. The Weak Form 5.3.2. The Semi-Strong Form The weak form implies that Technical analysis will not lead to superior investment results. Fundamental analysis may still provide excess returns. Future price movements are determined by unexpected information and therefore random. 29 The semi-strong form implies that share prices adjust to publically available new information very rapidly and in an unbiased fashion, such that no excess returns can be earned by trading on that information. Neither technical nor fundamental analyses will be able to reliably produce excess returns. However, studying inside information may lead to superior returns. 30 5

5.4. Empirical Evidence and Anomalies 5.3.3. The Strong Form Empirical results generally support: Share prices reflect all information, public or private, the weak form, and the semi-strong form. and no one can earn excess returns. Using inside information will not lead to superior investment returns consistently. Possible exceptions to the efficient market hypothesis, called anomalies, appear to exist. The P/E effect The small firm effect The January effect The neglected firm effect The day-of-the-week effect The overreaction effect The existence of an anomaly does not mean an individual can take advantage of the anomaly due to many reasons, including transaction costs. 31 32 5.5. Implications of Efficient Markets Chapter 5. Risk and Portfolio Management Stock prices embody known information. 1. The playing field is level. 2. Sources of risk Return Specifying financial goals may be more important than 3. Total portfolio risk seeking undervalued stocks. Should investors follow a buy-and-hold strategy? 4. The measurement of risk 5. Risk reduction through diversification The good: Reducing transactions costs 6. Portfolio theory The bad: Such a strategy ignores changes in financial 7. The Capital Assets Pricing Model (CAPM) goals. Should do: Reevaluate when financial goals change, but don’t trade if goals are still met. 8. Beta coefficients 9. Arbitrage pricing theory 33 34 1.1. Expected Return 1. Return E(r) the expected return The purpose of investment is to earn a return. E (r ) Return comes from two sources Income: interest, dividend Capital gains E(D) the expected dividend or interest E ( D) income E(g) P P purchase price of the asset E(g) the expected growth in the value of the asset (capital gain) Example: An investor buys a stock for 20/share and expects to earn a dividend of 1/share for the year. He also expects to sell the stock for 25/share after one year. What is his expected return? Differences among: Expected return: The return one anticipates Required return: The return necessary to induce the investor to purchase an asset Realized return: The actual return one gets E (r ) 35 E ( D) 1 25 20 E(g ) 0.05 0.25 0.3 30% P 20 20 36 6

Realized Return Required Return The required return includes D r g P What the investor may earn on alternative investments, such as risk-free investments (i.e., Treasury Bill) A premium for bearing the risk associated with this investment. r the realized return D the realized dividend or interest income P the price of the asset g the realized growth in the value of the asset Example: An investor buys a stock for 20/share and actually earned a dividend of 0.80/share for the year. When he sold his stock a year later he sold them for 22/share. What is his real return? This return involves risk calculation and will be discussed later in the chapter. r D 0.80 22 20 g 0.04 0.1 0.14 14% P 20 20 37 38 2. Sources of Risk Portfolio Return Risk is the uncertainty associated with earning the A portfolio’s return is the weighted return of all its assets. Suppose a portfolio consists of assets with the following expected returns: --Real estate Low-quality bonds AT&T stock Savings account Expected Return 10% 15 8 5 expected return Sources of risk Diversifiable risk – unsystematic risk Nondiversifiable risk – systematic risk Weight in Portfolio 20% 10 30 40 Total risk systematic risk unsystematic risk What is the expected return on the portfolio? Answer: Expected return 20%(10%) 10%(15%) 30%(8%) 40%(5%) 0.02 0.015 0.024 0.02 7.9% Note the sum of weights is 100%. 39 Unsystematic Risk Unsystematic risk is the risk associated with individual 40 Systematic Risk Systematic risk refers to those market factors that affect the returns on all comparable investments. Includes events that affect a particular security. Market risk: associated with the tendency of a stock’s price to fluctuate with the market. Includes both business risk and financial risk. Interest rate risk: the possibility of loss resulting from Business risk - associated with the nature of the business. Financial risk -associated with a firm’s sources of financing. increases in interest rate. Reinvestment risk: associated with reinvesting earnings at a lower rate than was initially earned. Unsystematic Risk Diversifiable Risk Purchasing power risk: future inflation may erode the Holding a well-diversified portfolio can significantly purchasing power of assets and income. reduce unsystematic risk. Exchange rate risk: associated with changes in the value of foreign currencies. Systematic Risk Nondiversifiable Risk 41 42 7

Illustration: A Portfolio of Three Stocks 3. Total Portfolio Risk Total Portfolio Risk (Total Risk) Systematic Risk Unsystematic Risk By diversification, one reduces unsystematic risk, thus reducing total portfolio risk. Diversification Means investing in a wide spectrum of assets whose returns are not highly correlated. Reduces (or eliminates) unsystematic risk. Does not reduce systematic risk. One should allocate one’s assets to achieve diversification in order to reduce unsystematic risk. 43 44 Standard Deviation as a Measure of Risk: One Asset 4. The Measurement of Risk Note that measurement of risk requires that you have a good understanding of basic statistics. Please review the concepts of mean, correlation, standard deviation, and variance if needed before you proceed further. Two measures: Standard Deviation (SD) measures the variability of returns The larger the SD, the higher the risk Beta measures the volatility of returns relative to the overall market return The larger the Beta, the higher the relative risk compared to the whole market 45 A Portfolio Standard Deviation (SDP) of Two Assets Portfolio Standard Deviation Notations: Depends on: Each asset’s variability; SA Standard Deviation of asset A SB Standard Deviation of asset B WA Portfolio weight of asset A E.g., Stock A has a SD of 1.01 and Stock B has an SD of 3.30. WB Portfolio weight of asset B Each asset's weight in the portfolio rAB Correlation coefficient of assets A & B. E.g., One allocates 70% of assets to Stock A and 30% of assets to Stock B. Thus Stock A has a weight of 70% while stock B has a weight of 30%. Covariance between the assets. 46 Stocks A and B may move together to some degree due to systematic risk. Correlation coefficient (often denoted as r and is between -1 to 1) is used to measure such correlation. 47 Portfolio SDP of assets A and B is SD P W A2 S A2 WB2 S B2 2W AW B S A S B rAB Note this formulas is the same as Equation 6.4 from the textbook page 159 because CovAB SASBrAB. 48 8

SDP of Two Assets with Perfect Negative Correlation (rAB -1) SDP of Two Assets with No Correlation (rAB 0) Assume Assume SA 1.5 SA 1.5 SB 2.0 SB 2.0 WA 70% WA 70% WB 30% WB 30% rAB -1 rAB 0 Portfolio SDP of assets A and B is Portfolio SDP of assets A and B is SD P W A2 S A2 WB2 S B2 2W AWB S A S B rAB SDP W A2 S A2 WB2 S B2 2W AW B S A S B rAB KK 0.7 *1.5 0.3 * 2.0 2 * 0.7 * 0.3 *1.5 * 2.0 * ( 1) KK 0.7 2 * 1.5 2 0.3 2 * 2.0 2 2 * 0.7 * 0.3 * 1.5 * 2.0 * 0 KK 1.1025 0.36 1.26 0.45 KK 1.1025 0.36 0 1.21 2 2 2 2 49 SDP of Two Assets with Perfect Correlation (rAB 1) 50 Compare Three Scenarios Assume SA 1.5 When the correlation between A and B is perfect at r 1, the SB 2.0 portfolio risk is the highest. In this case unsystematic risk is not reduced at all. When the correlation between A and B is completely negative at r -1, the portfolio risk is the lowest. In this case unsystematic risk is completely eliminated. Rule: The smaller the correlation between the returns of assets in one’s portfolio, the lower the total portfolio risk. Diversification is achieved when one has several assets in the portfolio that have small correlation with each other. WA 70% WB 30% rAB 1 Portfolio SDP of assets A and B is SDP W A2 S A2 W B2 S B2 2W AWB S A S B rAB KK 0.7 2 * 1.5 2 0.3 2 * 2.0 2 2 * 0.7 * 0.3 *1.5 * 2.0 * 1 KK 1.1025 0.36 1.26 1.65 51 52 6. Portfolio Theory – The Markowitz Model 5. Risk Reduction through Diversification Often diversification is about holding a variety of different kind of assets such as bonds, stocks, real estate, etc., instead of just several kinds of stocks. Historical data on correlation coefficients for returns from various types of assets. The optimal portfolio choice is made by combing two factors: The efficient frontier The investor's willingness to bear risk – the indifference map 53 54 9

Investor’s Willingness to Take Risk: Indifference Map The Efficient Frontier The graph to the left is an indifference map. The investor is equally happy with the combination of (δp1 and r1, lower risk lower expected return), or the combination of (δp2 and r2, higher risk higher expected return) Any points on I2 represents a higher expected return for the same risk, compared to points on I1. So the investor is happier (or has higher satisfaction) while on I2 than on I1. By the same token, I3 is even better than I2. All portfolios (e.g., B) on line XY are "efficient“ All points on XY yield the highest possible expected return for the level of risk Any portfolio below line XY (e.g., A) is inefficient - offers a lower return for the level of risk Any portfolio above line XY (e.g., C) is unobtainable The portfolio efficient frontier represents all acceptable and attainable choices to the investor. 55 Optimal Portfolio Choice 56 Differences in Individuals Different individuals have different preferences. Some may be more risk seeking while others are more risk averse. Flatter indifference curves - more risk seeking. Investor B is more riskseeking than Investor A. These two investors can face the same efficient frontier, but they will make different choices, with Investor B choosing a more risky portfolio than Investor A Superimposing the indifference curves on the efficient frontier determines the investor's optimal portfolio. On the graph, at Point O (tangent point), the investor attains the highest level of satisfaction for the efficient portfolio choices available to him or her. 57 7. The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) 58 The Capital Market Line The capital market The gist of CAPM It replaces portfolio efficient frontier with a related but different concept called “Capital Market Line.” Investors maximize their satisfaction by choosing optimal portfolios for their levels of risk preference while facing the constraints of the Capital Market Line. line redefines the efficient frontier XY and is marked as AB. The intercept is rf, risk free return. Z is the point of tangency on XY. 59 60 10

Different Optimal Portfolios for Different Investors A Pragmatic Capital Market Line The graph shows a practical application of the This graph Capital Market Line: risk and return relationship of different types of assets. shows two investors, R more risk tolerant than C, choosing different optimal portfolios. 61 The CAPM and Beta Coefficients 62 8. Beta Coefficient Beta coefficient is an index of volatility of an asset The second part of CAPM is the specification of the relative to the volatility of the market. relationship between risk and return for the individual asset (such as a stock). The relationship between risk and return for the individual asset is called the Security Market Line (SML). Notation: Earlier we mentioned two ways of measuring risk: Standard Deviation and the Beta (β) coefficient. βi Beta of asset i σi Standard Deviation of return on asset i σM Standard Deviation of return on the market riM correlation coefficient between the return on asset i and the return on the market Risk measurement is different for Capital Market Line and for Security Market Line. βi Capital Market Line: Standard Deviation measure Security Market Line: Beta coefficient measure σi riM σM 63 64 Examples of Beta Coefficients Interpretation of Beta Suppose the market standard deviation of return is 10%. ABC stock standard deviation is 4%, and the correlation coefficient between ABC stock return and the market return is 0.8. Then the Beta coefficient for ABC stock is XYZ stock standard deviation is 20%, and the correlation coefficient between stock return and the market return is 0.7. Then the Beta coefficient for XYZ stock is β ABC σ ABC 4% rABC *M 0.8 0.32 σM 10% Interpretation Beta 1.0: the same volatility as the market return. Beta 1.0: more volatile than the market return. Beta 1.0: less volatile than the market return. Depending on the data used, the time period covered, β XYZ σ XYZ 20% rXYZ *M 0.7 1.4 σM 10% 65 individual stock betas may vary over time and across different sources. Historical data show a tendency of beta to move toward 1.0, the market beta. 66 11

Beta Coefficients and The Security Market Line Portfolio Betas The return on a stock Weighted average of the individual asset's betas depends on May be more stable than individual stock betas E.g. If a portfolio consists of these three stocks The risk free rate (rf ) The return on the market (rM) The stock's beta (β) The return on a stock is rs rf (rM - rf )β E.g. If rM 6%, rf 3%, stock ABC β is 1.2. Then return on stock ABC is rs 3% (6% - 3%)x1.2 6.6% Stock % of Portfolio Beta XXX 20% 0.8 YYY 30% 1.2 ZZZ 50% 1.5 βP 20%*0.8 30%*1.2 50%*1.5 1.27 67 68 Determinants of Return on Stock (rs) 9. Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) rs re b1F1 b2F2 b3F3 b4F4 e re the expected return F1 to F4 are a series of factors that may affect security prices, APT is developed as an alternative to the CAPM. Arbitrage means buying in one market and such as simultaneously selling in another market to take advantage of price differentials. This process ensures that There can only be one price for the same security at a Unexpected inflation Unexpected changes in industrial production Unanticipated shifts in risk premiums Unanticipated changes in the structure of yields b1 to b4 are how the individual stock responds to given time Portfolios with the same risk will have the same returns unanticipated changes in those factors In APT, security returns (rs) are considered as the result of arbitrage as investors seek to take advantage of perceived differences in prices of risk exposure. 69 e is random error. APT model is being further developed. It is supposed to be more flexible than CAPM because it allows more than two factors. 70 12

Marginal tax: The tax rate paid on an additional last dollar of taxable income. E.g., If you are filing single and your taxable income is 27,225 in 2012, your marginal tax rate is 15%. That means if you earn an additional 1 in interest, you pay 15 cents of it as federal income tax. 9 3.4. Tax Shelters A tax shelter is an asset or investment that

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