Submission By The North East Housing Sector - Northern Housing Consortium
North East Economic Review Submission by the North East Housing Sector January 2013
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Lord Adonis Economic Review, Submission by the North East Housing Sector, January 2013 Contents 1.0 Purpose of this submission 1 2.0 Why is house building important? Demographic Need and Out-Migration Delivering ‘Real’ Jobs and Economic Value Housing as a Driver of Economic Growth Housing as a Regional Facilitator of Jobs 2 2 3 4 5 3.0 Scale and Size of the Sector: What it delivers now 7 4.0 Business Sentiment and Barriers to Growth Barriers to Growth Addressing the Barriers Summary 16 16 18 20 5.0 Maximising Opportunities: What the sector could deliver in 2018 21 6.0 Our ‘Asks’ of the Adonis Review Finance Availability Land Availability Governance Summary 27 27 29 31 32 Appendix 33
Lord Adonis Economic Review, Submission by the North East Housing Sector, January 2013 1.0 Purpose of the submission 1.1 In September 2012 the North East Local Enterprise Partnership (NE LEP) commissioned an independent review of the NE LEP economy. Led by Lord Adonis, the review will provide a strategic assessment of the NE LEP economy. The work seeks to ensure that the NE LEP realises its potential and improves its economic performance in order to drive forward growth over the period to 2030. The review will focus on two key elements: productivity and employment growth. 1.2 This study seeks to identify the economic and social benefits of house building (private and social housing associations and other providers). It draws upon: A review of the documents which provide the context in relation to the economic benefits of house building and the scale of the housing crisis affecting the UK; A variety of published data sources including ONS and Experian; and Primary survey research undertaken to inform this study. 1.3 The purpose is to present an assessment of the current role and importance of the housing industry to the NE LEP area and the contribution it can make, if supported by policy and action, to driving economic recovery. Geography of the data 1.4 The principal focus of this study is to understand the economic importance (and potential future role) of the housing industry as it relates to the NE LEP area. As such, NLP have sought, wherever possible, to present data (both primary and secondary) on this basis. In some instances, it has not been possible to obtain data for this specific geographic area. Where this is the case, data for the north east has been considered, with appropriate adjustments applied where relevant. 1.5 NLP’s work has been driven by a steering group comprising: 1 Keith Loraine (Chair), Isos Housing Limited Peter Jordan, Persimmon Homes and Regional Chair of the HBF Monica Burns, National Housing Federation Brian Robson, Northern Housing Consortium Neil Milburn, Barratt Homes Brian Robson, Northern Housing Consortium Steve Wilcock, Taylor Wimpey Caroline Strugnell, Bellway Homes John Walker, Gentoo Homes Sheila Breslin, Your Homes Newcastle
Lord Adonis Economic Review, Submission by the North East Housing Sector, January 2013 2.0 Why is house building important? 2.1 As clearly recognised by Government, the housing industry has a critical role to play in addressing two of the greatest socio-economic challenges currently facing the UK: To address a housing crisis, driven by sustained under delivery of new homes and exacerbated by the restricted availability of mortgage finance; and To support economic growth, in order to restore output to 2008 levels (and beyond) and facilitate deficit reduction. 2.2 Increasing rates of housing construction will itself help to address both of the challenges outlined above. Nevertheless, further intervention is required to address a series of policy and market constraints, given the following: The region’s population is growing significantly1 and new housing is needed to meet the housing needs of existing and future population; Out-migration in the north east is a factor but it is intra-regional migration which is a significant issue for the north east and impacting on economic performance; Housing (and construction development) creates ‘real’ jobs and economic value; and Economic prosperity will drive the housing construction industry. 2.3 The remainder of this section provides evidence to support these issues and to address commonly held misconceptions in relation to them. It demonstrates the economic and social benefits of increased housing construction across the NE LEP area and the wider north east. 2.4 The NHF, HBF, CIH and others, have successfully worked together to present the economic case for more housing in the North East to Central Government. This was recognised in the Governments Housing Strategy of November 2011. This submission aims to update those arguments for the benefit of the Adonis Review and the LEP. Demographic Need and Out-Migration 2.5 The north east, and the NE LEP area, have traditionally suffered from a net outmigration of residents. In spite of this, however, the population of the NE LEP area is projected to increase by 119,000 residents over the next 20 years2. As a consequence of this, and an increase in the prevalence of smaller households, the number of households in the NE LEP area is anticipated to rise by 131,000 over the period to 20333. Each of these new households enjoys, under the Human Rights Act, the right to a home. 2.6 In addition there is a need to increase delivery to meet existing housing needs in the area. It is estimated that there are currently 76,590 people on housing waiting lists across the NE LEP area and a rising number of homeless households4. Given that there were 8,582 Registered Provider lettings in 2009/10 a continuation of this rate would result in existing housing waiting lists taking more than a decade to clear waiting lists, even assuming no new entrants to the list, a highly unlikely scenario. ONS Population and Household Projections (2012-2032) ONS 2010-based Subnational Population Projections (2012-2032) 3 CLG 2008-based Household Projections (2013-2033) 4 ‘Home Truths 2012 – The housing market in the north east England’ National Housing Federation 1 2 2
Lord Adonis Economic Review, Submission by the North East Housing Sector, January 2013 2.7 The shortage of housing in the area and its consequences are complex. It is influenced by a range of inter-related issues, including: High house prices which in turn drives up mortgage deposit requirements; Increasing pressures on the social rented sector – the undersupply and lack of mortgages is changing demand from owner occupation to renting; Growing demand for private rented sector accommodation, resulting in substantial rent rises; Lack of available land in areas where there is demand for new supply and availability of mortgages: Detrimental impact on the local labour force and supply chain – less housing means fewer jobs for local construction workers, local tradesmen and local suppliers – in turn increasing the welfare burden on the state; and Less money entering the local economy through less development sites being brought forward and the positive impact they have on other sectors of the economy e.g. leisure and retail. 2.8 Housing supply issues have a fundamental impact on the quality of life of individuals and households in the NE LEP and the ability of the local economy to deliver growth. Research has consistently pointed to the importance of new housing in helping to maintain a skilled and talented workforce. The ability to attract and retain a skilled workforce is clearly critical to the growth aspirations of the NE LEP. In simple terms our old, terraced, rented dwelling stock is unfit for purpose when we paint a picture of an economically successful region in 2030. Renewing it will create jobs and improve quality of life. Delivering ‘Real’ Jobs and Economic Value 2.9 The housing industry is a major source of employment and economic growth across the NE LEP and nationally. This is discussed in greater detail in the later sections of this report. The breadth and depth of the supply chain means that the spin-off benefits from house building activity are far greater than for many other economic sectors. 2.10 In spite of this, it is often claimed that house building does not generate ‘real’ jobs and economic value. This is perhaps because – at an individual site level – employment and output is relatively transient. However, the industry does support real, permanent employment opportunities – albeit that the jobs are transferred on a site by site basis as new housing is delivered and not tied to a permanent position at one specific location. 2.11 It will be demonstrated later that house building is a high wage, high value sector. When workers secure the skills to work in the industry they stay long term, albeit their jobs will be mobile across various sites. It is unreasonable to suggest that employees of, say, Barratt and Bellway (national FTSE companies headquartered in the North) who deliver housing to the market are employed in ‘temporary’ jobs. 3
Lord Adonis Economic Review, Submission by the North East Housing Sector, January 2013 2.12 The sector supports 6,500 long term permanent jobs in the NE LEP area and delivers more than a billion pounds of Gross Value Added per annum across the north east. Clearly, the sector makes a major economic contribution. Were this a manufacturing operation producing almost 4,000 units per annum, with a per unit sales value in excess of 100,000 it would held up as one of the ‘jewels in the crown’ of the NE LEP economy. Especially when we remember that the planning system (an organ of the state) is one of a number of brakes impacting on its growth to 8-10,000 units per annum. Housing as a Driver of Economic Growth 2.13 At the national level, Government is clear on the economic importance of the house building industry and the role it can play in helping to stimulate economic growth and increase the pace of recovery: “This radical and unashamedly ambitious strategy has two main aims - to drive local economies and create jobs” “Getting house building moving again is crucial for economic growth – housing has a direct impact on economic output, averaging 3 per cent of GDP in the last decade Without building new homes our economic recovery will take longer than it needs to.” (Original emphasis) “Boosting housing output to pre-recession levels could make a real difference to economic growth in the short term. Total construction output and jobs have suffered during the recession, with the decline accounting for a fifth of the 7.1 per cent decline in GDP from peak to trough This has created considerable spare capacity in the house building industry. By implication, restoring house building to pre-recession levels will add to economic growth and create jobs, without creating inflation.” (NLP emphasis) “Housing construction also supports more jobs compared with investment in many other sectors of the economy, because it supports a large amount of related activity such as concrete production, and glass and brick manufacturing.” (NLP emphasis)1 All quotes in paragraph 2.13 from: ‘Laying the Foundations: A Housing Strategy for England’ HM Government (November 2011) 1 4
Lord Adonis Economic Review, Submission by the North East Housing Sector, January 2013 Housing as a Regional Facilitator of Jobs 2.14 Historically, the delivery of new housing in the NE LEP area has played a critical role in bringing forward, and making viable, sites for economic development. Thereby creating new jobs and economic growth. Employment land at Newcastle Great Park – home to one of the area’s few FTSE 100 listed business – was facilitated purely and simply by the development of a residential-led urban extension which cross-subsidised the provision of the necessary infrastructure. The same is to be said for the Durham Gate Scheme in Spennymoor shortly to become the European R&D Headquarters for Stanley Black and Decker. A “pump-priming” housing development has enabled the development of commercial floorspace and jobs. 2.15 Nowhere is the link between housing and economic growth more apparent than at two of the NE LEP area’s major industrial locations: Cramlington and Washington. Both were developed as new towns in the 1960’s/1970’s. Private sector house builders funded the provision of infrastructure and employment land which has subsequently enabled both settlements to support substantial levels of new employment. Indeed, based upon data from the Business Register and Employment Survey (2011) it is estimated that there are currently 12,000 jobs located within Cramlington and almost 35,000 in Washington. Cramlington is one of the very few towns in the UK wholly delivered by private sector investment. At Washington public sector land sales to housebuilders facilitated the provision of physical and social infrastructure to attract economic development. 2.16 Given the limited appetite for speculative development of employment premises and the reduced availability of public sector funding to unlock sites, the cross-subsidy offered by residential development remains critically important to the future delivery of new jobs in the NE LEP area. 2.17 Beyond the NE LEP boundary, the development of Wynyard at Tees Valley demonstrates the economic impact that can be generated through the delivery of a high quality executive housing product. Research published in 2006 by CURDS9 demonstrated the success of Wynyard in attracting entrepreneurs to the north east. 2.18 Wynyard is recognised as being home to some of the region’s pre-eminent business figures. The study identified that approximately 42% of households at Wynyard contained at least one adult who owned or part owned a business, with almost half of these individuals running their business from home. 2.19 The study also confirmed that the residential search area for many of these households extended to locations such as Leeds, York and Harrogate, rather than other locations within the north east. As such, Wynyard helped to attract footloose wealth creators that would otherwise have moved elsewhere. Many of these individuals run businesses within the local area. 9 5 The economic role of mobile professional and creative workers and their housing and residential preferences, CURDS (2006)
Lord Adonis Economic Review, Submission by the North East Housing Sector, January 2013 2.20 In simple terms, other than at Team Valley and Newcastle City Centre, the North East economic development market in recent years has been facilitated by two main contributors: a Enterprise Zones; and b Cross subsidy from housing. 2.21 The new wave of Enterprise Zones simply do not have the financial fire power to positively skew the market in the way previous versions did. In terms of bringing forward new job creation sites, this leaves us with (a) Team Valley (nearly full) and (b) housing cross-subsidy. In relation to (b) it is worth remembering that such subsidy comes at no cost whatsoever to the exchequer - simply a willing forward thinking planning process. Moreover, the role of house building in cross-subsidising economic development has a demonstrable track record of regional success stretching back to the early 1960s. “ The Coalition Government’s number one priority is to get the economy growing. The need for new homes is acute, and supply remains constrained. Given the current imperative for growth, we need to do more. ” Eric Pickles, Secretary of State 6th September 2012 6
Lord Adonis Economic Review, Submission by the North East Housing Sector, January 2013 Lord Adonis Economic Review 3.0 3.1 Scale and Size of the Sector 3.0 Scale and Size of the Sector: The recession and tougher planning conditions have impacted significantly on What it delivers nowhouse building. This section considers the the construction industry, particularly changes which have taken place in relation to the key themes of the Adonis Review: productivity and employment. 3.1 The recession and tougher planning conditions have impacted significantly on the construction industry, particularly house building. This section considers the changes which Productivity have taken place in relation to the key themes of the Adonis Review: productivity and employment. 3.2 3.3 In 2012 Gross Value Added (GVA) in the north east stood at 39.2 billion. GVA for the ‘Construction of buildings’ - the best available proxy measure for house Productivity building – was estimated at 1.38 billion (3.5% of total economic output). In 3.2percentage In 2012 Gross Value (GVA) in the stood at 39.2 billion. GVA for the terms theAdded contribution ofnorth the east sector has not changed significantly ‘Construction of buildings’ the best available proxy measure for house building since 2006. In absolute terms, however, it has declined by 3% from– was 2006; estimated at 1.38 billion (3.5% of total economic output). In percentage terms the 1.43 billion to 1.38 billion. contribution of the sector has not changed significantly since 2006. In absolute terms, however, it hasperformance declined by 3%over from time 2006;(Figure 1.43 billion to 1.38 billion. Change in GVA 3.1) highlights the volatility of the sector’s performance in recent years. During periods of economic strength and 3.3 Change in GVA performance over time (Figure 3.1) highlights the volatility of the sector’s positive planning conditions it hasperiods demonstrated capability to deliver GVA performance in recent years. During of economicthe strength and positive planning growth ratesitfar excess of the thecapability all sectortoaverage, suggesting that conditions hasin demonstrated deliver GVA growth rates far in excess construction offersaverage, the potential to that be aconstruction key driveroffers of regional economic growth. of the all sector suggesting the potential to be a key driver of regional economic growth. Conversely, acute falls in economic output within the Conversely, acute falls in economic output within the sector have also been sector have also been observed – particularly in the period 2007/08 at the onset of the observed – particularly in the period 2007/08 at the onset of the recession and recession and with a constraining national “brownfield-first” planning policy. The scale of the with a constraining national “brownfield-first” planning policy. The scale of the contraction in GVA for the sector was also far in excess of the all sector average. contraction in GVA for the sector was also far in excess of the all sector average Fig 3.1 : GVA % Change 1998 to 2012 Fig 3.1 GVA % Change 1998 to 2012 Source : Experian 25 20 15 GVA Change (%) 10 5 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 -5 -10 -15 -20 NE All Sectors 3.4 7 NE Construction Based upon an analysis of Experian 2011 data, it is estimated that 'construction of buildings' has a higher GVA per employee than the north east economy as a whole; 52,840 compared to 41,365, a difference of 21.7%.
Lord Adonis Economic Review, Submission by the North East Housing Sector, January 2013 : 3.4 Based upon an analysis of Experian 2011 data, it is estimated that ‘construction of buildings’ has a higher GVA per employee than the north east economy as a whole; 52,840 compared to 41,365, a difference of 21.7%. This confirms that stimulating growth in This confirms that stimulating growth employment within larger this sector have employment within this sector willin have a disproportionately positive will impact in terms of economic output, than other sectors. This is because each individual job generates a a disproportionately larger positive impact in terms of economic output, than significantly greater uplift in GVA. other sectors. This is because each individual job generates a significantly greater uplift in GVA. Fig 3.2 Fig 3.2 : Comparison of GVA per FTE Comparison of GVA per FTE (2011 BRES) Source : 2011 BRES 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Construction of buildings (GVA per FTE) All sectors (NE economy) (GVA per FTE) Turnover Turnover 3.5 In November 2012 NLP undertook an industry survey in order to gather primary data to help In November 2012 NLP undertook an industry survey in order to gather primary inform this study. Responses were received from four private sector respondents active data to help inform this Responses were received from four private40% of all within the NE LEPstudy. area. These four organisations accounted for an estimated sector respondents active withinin the NELEP LEP area. These Itfour organisations market housing delivered the NE area in 2011/12. is therefore assumed that they accounted will for have an estimated 40% oforder all market housing delivered in the NE LEP be accounted for in the of 40% of private sector turnover. It can therefore estimated that private sector activity as a whole generated a combined turnover area in 2011/12. It is therefore assumed that they will have accounted forofin per annum. Social sector turnover, on responses to the NLP industry the order of 450million 40% of private sector turnover. It canbased therefore be estimated that survey and emerging findings of research by the Centre for Regional Economic and Social private sector activity as a whole generated10 a combined turnover of 450million Research at Sheffield Hallam University , is estimated to be in the order of 580million. per annum. Social sector turnover, based on responses to the NLP industry survey and emerging findings of research by the Centre for Regional Economic and Social Research at Sheffield Hallam University10, is estimated to be in the order of 580million. The Sheffield Hallam research provides further evidence of the scale of the housing industry. It estimates that the social housing sector was worth 10.3billion to the economies of the northern regions (north east, north west and Yorkshire & Humber) in 2011/12. This is estimated to comprise of: 10 ‘The Economic Impact of Housing on the Northern Economy’ Centre for Regional Economic and Social Research (2012)of ‘direct’ spending by housing providers; and 5 billion 5.3 billion of ‘indirect’ spending by suppliers and contractors. 8
Lord Adonis Economic Review, Submission by the North East Housing Sector, January 2013 3.6 The Sheffield Hallam research provides further evidence of the scale of the housing industry. It estimates that the social housing sector was worth 10.3billion to the economies of the northern regions (north east, north west and Yorkshire & Humber) in 2011/12. This is estimated to comprise of: 5 billion of ‘direct’ spending by housing providers; and 5.3 billion of ‘indirect’ spending by suppliers and contractors. Locally focused benefits 3.7 If we can create the right policy and market conditions the sector can further enhance its contribution to driving growth. Given its strong performance against the all-sector average, there is the potential to maximise investment available from limited public sector funds especially given the wider social benefits which are also delivered (discussed later in this paper). 3.8 Recent research concluded that every 1 invested in the construction of new houses generates 2.84 local spending11. It extends across trades and services including: concrete; steel; lighting; heating and professional services including estate agents, lawyers and architects. On average, each volume housebuilder in the North East supports 137 different supplier businesses. 3.9 It is the local nature of the supply chain which is also an important characteristic. Qualitative evidence from key stakeholders in the NE LEP identify that much of the supply chain is focussed on a local area. One major builder estimated that 90% of labour and materials (excluding white goods) are sourced within a 10 mile radius of any development site. Development in the NE LEP area creates local jobs and spending in the area. 3.10 Table 3.1 shows the range of sub contractors supported by both the private sector and housing associations and other providers. “ The measures announced today show this Government is serious about rolling its sleeves up and doing all it can to kick-start the economy. they provide a comprehensive plan to unleash one of the biggest homebuilding programmes this country has seen in a generation. David Cameron, Prime Minister 6th September 2012 11 9 Funding Future Homes – An evidence base (2012) CCHPR ”
Lord Adonis Economic Review, Submission by the North East Housing Sector, January 2013 Table 3.1 : Average number of sub contractors supported by Private and HA/RP Source : NLP Industry Survey 2012 Private Sector HA/RP Pre implementation professional services (planning, design, legal) 22 12 Implementation (site preparation and construction) 98 11 Sales, marketing, conveyancing 10 3 Ongoing maintenance 6 19 Management of stock/tenants 1 1 3.11 As stated above each volume housebuilder supports, on average, 137 sub contractors. Each housing association and registered provider, on average, supports 46 sub contractors in delivering their business needs. The table also illustrates the difference in the types of sub contractors used. For the private sector there is a greater focus on planning, design and construction whereas for housing associations and other providers, there is a much greater focus on maintenance. This reflects the greater difficulties for private housebuilders in securing planning permission and the increased costs for housing associations and other providers in maintaining their rented stock. 3.12 In addition substantial levels of investment are made by housing providers (both public and private) into communities and neighbourhoods. The National Housing Federation have sought to quantify the level of neighbourhood investment, through a Neighbourhood Audit (2011) covering a period of 5 years. This highlighted investments of: 2.82 million of own funding by housing associations and other providers 2.03 million additional secured funding 3.13 The ‘Community Investment’ by housing associations and other providers is under-estimated as it does not highlight the considerable revenue funding which is invested into the community. This can be demonstrated for example by Gentoo, who in 2012 invested 383k of capital expenditure into community facilities but through Gentoo Living, their community and neighbourhood investment vehicle revenue funds of 4.9million were also invested. 10
Lord Adonis Economic Review, Submission by the North East Housing Sector, January 2013 Case Study: Cleadon Park Cleadon Park sits within South Tyneside. It was an estate of approximately 950 council houses with large gardens, built in the 1920s. Once sought after, the area had become blighted by high levels of crime and anti-social behaviour, had amongst the highest levels of deprivation in the UK and parts of the estate had 70 per cent empty and abandoned properties. Today, Cleadon Park is being successfully transformed through an ambitious 132 million redevelopment partnership scheme involving the demolition of 538 homes and the building of 741 new seamlessly integrated homes for sale and rent, a Primary Care Centre, library and community facilities. Helping people into jobs and encouraging enterprise is at the heart of the regeneration of Cleadon Park. 21 local people were employed as apprentices and general workforce on the development site and 3 local people were employed by Groundwork to provide landscaping works. A huge amount of work has been undertaken to educate and work with the younger members of the community. The partnership has funded football and netball team strips, supported festivals in the area, delivered building and fire safety workshops at the local Primary School and funded bus passes for those families that were temporarily moved off the estate. An educational toolkit has also been developed for use in Primary Schools in areas undergoing regeneration. This has been accredited by the Homes and Communities Agency. The successful transformation of Cleadon Park has been recognised via a series of awards, most notably the Housing Corporation Gold Award for delivering joined up development (2008). 3.14 The breadth of the investment which housing brings (alongside actual house construction) is an important component of the sector. The benefits delivered by the private sector and housing association and registered providers in 2012 alone are illustrated overleaf. It shows that the greatest difference between the benefits delivered by the two sectors is: the amount of brownfield land remediated and the amount of landscaping and open space. 3.15 Together, both sectors contributed an estimated 14.2m in 2012 to new facilities such as sports and community centres and 16.9m to new transport infrastructure – easing congestion for all. 11
Lord Adonis Economic Review, Submission by the North East Housing Sector, January 2013 Units Delivered 2,660 Private Sector Brownfield Land Remediated 70.5ha Private Sector Landscaping & Open Space 17.6ha Private Sector Trees Planted 2,548 Private Sector Investment in Community Facilities Investment in Transport Infrastructure 10.5m Private Sector 10m Private Sector 1,110 Social Sector 3,770 Total Delivered 91.6ha 162.1ha Social Sector Total Delivered 7.4ha Social Sector 960 Social Sector 3.7m Social Sector 6.9m Social Sector 25ha Tota
Steve Wilcock, Taylor Wimpey Caroline Strugnell, Bellway Homes John Walker, Gentoo Homes Sheila Breslin, Your Homes Newcastle 1.0 Purpose of the submission. Lord Adonis Economic Review, Submission by the North East Housing Sector, January 2013 2
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