Electricity Costs Of Energy Intensive Industries In .

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ELECTRICITY COSTS OF ENERGY INTENSIVE INDUSTRIES IN ICELAND – A COMPARISON WITH ENERGY INTENSIVE INDUSTRIES IN SELECTED COUNTRIESFRAUNHOFER ISIElectricity costs of energy intensive industries in IcelandA comparison with energy intensive industries in selected countriesPlace:Karlsruhe, GermanyDate:12.11.2020Final Report1

2FRAUNHOFER ISIELECTRICITY COSTS OF ENERGY INTENSIVE INDUSTRIES IN ICELAND – A COMPARISON WITH ENERGY INTENSIVE INDUSTRIES IN SELECTED COUNTRIESImprintElectricity costs of energy intensive industries in Iceland – a comparison with energy intensive industries in selected countriesProject coordinationFraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISIBreslauer Strasse 48, 76139 Karlsruhe, GermanyBarbara BreitschopfAuthorsFraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISIBreslauer Strasse 48, 76139 KarlsruheBarbara Breitschopf, barbara.breitschopf@isi.fraunhofer.deLin Zheng, lin.zheng@isi.fraunhofer.deClientDepartment of Energy, Industry and Business affairs, Ministry of Industries and Innovation, IcelandSkúlagötu 4, 101 Reykjavik, IcelandRecommended citationLin, Zheng; Barbara, Breitschopf (2020): Electricity costs of energy intensive industries in Iceland – a comparison with energy intensive industries in selected countries. Karlsruhe, Germany: Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISIPublishedNovember 2020NotesThis report in its entirety is protected by copyright. The information contained was compiled to the best ofour knowledge and belief in accordance with the principles of good scientific practice. The authors believethe information in this report is, correct, complete and current, but accept no liability for any errors, explicitor implicit. The statements in this document do not necessarily reflect the client’s opinion.

ELECTRICITY COSTS OF ENERGY INTENSIVE INDUSTRIES IN ICELAND – A COMPARISON WITH ENERGY INTENSIVE INDUSTRIES IN SELECTED COUNTRIESFRAUNHOFER ISIContents1Introduction52Description of the electricity market and prices in Iceland62.1Electricity supply and demand . 62.2Electricity market . 92.3Retail electricity price . 132.4Situation and costs of the network . 142.5Electricity tax . 152.6Promotion of renewable energy sources . 152.7Conclusion. 163Electricity price components of energy intensive industries173.1Calculation of the energy component . 173.2Network component . 213.3Taxes . 233.4Levies: Promotion of renewable energy sources, energy efficiency and environmentalprotection . 243.5EU Emission Trading System compensation . 264Competitiveness of Iceland’s energy-intensive industries294.1Method . 294.2Energy consumption . 304.3Results . 325Electricity prices in Iceland385.1Current electricity prices . 385.2Outlook . 396Conclusion417List of figures458List of tables46A.1Annex47A.1.1Network fees . 47A.1.2Electricity prices in Quebec . 483

4FRAUNHOFER ISIELECTRICITY COSTS OF ENERGY INTENSIVE INDUSTRIES IN ICELAND – A COMPARISON WITH ENERGY INTENSIVE INDUSTRIES IN SELECTED COUNTRIESA.1.3Technical specifications . 49A.1.4Currency exchange rate . 50

ELECTRICITY COSTS OF ENERGY INTENSIVE INDUSTRIES IN ICELAND – A COMPARISON WITH ENERGY INTENSIVE INDUSTRIES IN SELECTED COUNTRIESINTRODUCTION1FRAUNHOFER ISIIntroductionThere are ongoing disputes about electricity prices and their impact on the competitiveness of energyintensive industry. As energy intensive industries produce relatively homogenous goods or services thatare at the upper end of the value chain, and as they trade their products or provide their services in theglobal market, they face global competition. Main input factors such as labour and electricity are - up toa certain point- only accessible and available at a regional level. Therefore, the global competition ofenergy intensive industries is highly affected by regional factors. This means that energy intensive industries will try to pass their competitive pressure on to regional energy suppliers and the labour markets.The supply of electricity is bound to a network/infrastructure entailing significant investments. Thus,regulatory frameworks are needed to avoid monopolistic behaviour and to ensure a secure energy supply. Therefore, an appropriate design is deemed to be necessary for a competitive regional electricitymarket, which enables market access and exit for a variety of actors, low interdependences betweenenergy supply, transmission and distribution, as well as transparency for consumers.Overall, there is a common agreement that an outstanding energy structure and low energy prices arestrong competitiveness factors and will increase foreign investment and thereby economic prosperity inthe country. On the other hand, there is general consensus that the costs of electricity supply should berecovered by respective and fair electricity prices for all types of consumers.Against this background, the Icelandic Government has approached Fraunhofer to study the impact ofelectricity prices on the competitiveness of their energy intensive industries. The study will provide anoverview of factors that influence (impact) electricity prices for power intensive industries in Iceland, ofspecific features of the Icelandic energy market and energy mix (i.e. the role of 100% renewable energy), the share of electricity cost in the operation cost (business cost) of power intensive industries inIceland, the composition of electricity costs in Iceland and a comparison of electricity costs as well ascompetitiveness of power intensive industries in Iceland, Norway, Germany and Canada (Quebec).1Access to data regarding specific energy intensive industries as well as some power companies in Iceland was coordinated or initiated by the contracting authority. The following companies were consulted, and information requested from, in the writing of this report: ISAL (Rio Tinto), Norðurál (CenturyAluminium), Fjarðaál (Alcoa), Elkem, PCC Bakki, Borealis (Etix), VerneGlobal, Advania data centre, TDK(Becromal), Landsvirkjun, HS Orka, Orkuveita Reykjavíkur, ON Power, Landsnet. The overwhelming majority of them provided the requested information and all power purchasers except for one providedinformation on pricing. Data in this regard is confidential. Electricity prices and costs are denoted in USDollar (USD), the currency exchange rates used are shown in Annex A.1.4.The study is structured as follows:1.2.3.4.5.1to provide an understanding of the factors that affect electricity prices, the Icelandic electricitymarket, with respect to supply, demand, price mechanisms and supports, is outlinedthe electricity price components are described for each of the competing countries with respect toenergy intensive industrieselectricity prices of energy intensive industries in Iceland are compared with Norway, Germany andCanadafactors determining electricity prices in Iceland are discussedrecommendations are providedCanada encompasses several electricity sectors/markets, which are organised along provincial and territorial lines. Because Quebec is the province with the largest electricity generation and consumption share, and displays the lowest electricity prices, and holds a high share of energyintensive industries in Canada, we focus in the analysis on Quebec as the main competing region. s/20068:5

FRAUNHOFER ISI2ELECTRICITY COSTS OF ENERGY INTENSIVE INDUSTRIES IN ICELAND – A COMPARISON WITH ENERGY INTENSIVE INDUSTRIES IN SELECTED COUNTRIESDESCRIPTION OF THE ELECTRICITY MARKET AND PRICES IN ICELANDDescription of the electricity market and prices in IcelandStudies published by the European Commission2, as well as other studies, have highlighted the significance of supply factors, demand, market design, policy interference and regulations with respect toelectricity prices. In this chapter, we outline the electricity supply, demand, market design, price components and present the main factors that drive electricity prices in Iceland.2.1Electricity supply and demandConsumptionOver decades there has been a significant growth of the net electricity consumption in Iceland, whichreached the level of 19.28 TWh in 2018. As shown in Figure 1 a), slightly over half (51-54%) of the totalelectricity consumption was consumed by heavy industry between 1990 and 1997; this proportion increased to 60-71% between 1998 and 2007, and has been stabilising at around 79% since 2008. Figure1 b) shows a more detailed picture of electricity consumption by sector from 1998 to 2018 in Iceland.The industries’ electricity consumption shows a continuous growth, with a strong increase in 2008. In2018, it accounts for around 81 % of the net electricity consumption. The service sector has the secondhighest consumption (around 9 %), followed by households and utilities (both about 4 012201320142015201620172018Electricity consumption(TWh)a) Electricity Consumption in Iceland 1990-2018General consumptionHeavy industry totalb) Electricity Consumption by SectorElectricity Consumption 20082010201220142016Figure 1: Electricity demand in Iceland [source: Energy Authority of /energy-prices-and-costs en?redir 12018

ELECTRICITY COSTS OF ENERGY INTENSIVE INDUSTRIES IN ICELAND – A COMPARISON WITH ENERGY INTENSIVE INDUSTRIES IN SELECTED COUNTRIESDESCRIPTION OF THE ELECTRICITY MARKET AND PRICES IN ICELANDFRAUNHOFER ISIThe high electricity consumption in the industrial sector is a result of the rapid expansion of energyintensive industries in Iceland. Aluminium production has been increasing for over half a century, whichcan be traced back to the expansion of the existing Rio Tinto Alcan smelter, originally built in 19693, andtwo new smelters, Century Aluminium and Alcoa, started operation in 1998 and 2008 respectively4. In2018, aluminium smelters accounted for around 67 % of the total Icelandic electricity consumption, followed by ferroalloy industry (around 5 %) and aluminium foil industry (4 %). Until 2018, electricity consumption by a new industry, data centres, is growing in Iceland. However, the data reveal a decrease of2.33 TWh (of which 1.64 TWh from oil, 0.36 TWh from hydro and 0.31 TWh from geothermal energy) inprimary energy use in 2019 compared to 20185. This is mainly due to great reduction is sale of aviationfuel and heavy fuel oil. Also partly a result from decreased electricity consumption in the energy intensiveindustry. In 2020, slumps in energy consumption are anticipated due to the Covid19 pandemic.Accordingly, the entire energy intensive industry was responsible for around 80 % of the total Icelandicelectricity consumption from 2008 to 2018.Electricity Consumption of the Heavy IndustryElectricity consumption 0201120122013201420152016201720180Aluminium smeltersFerroalloy industryAluminium foil industryData centresFigure 2: Electricity demand in the Icelandic industrial sector [source: Energy Authority ofIceland]GenerationStatistics show that Icelandic electricity generation has been increasing since 1915, when 0.04 GWh weregenerated exclusively using oil; hydro energy began its contribution with 0.5 GWh in 1920.6 In 2018, thetotal power generation reached about 19.83 TWh, mostly hydro energy (around 69.66 %) and geothermal energy (around 30.31 %) and only 0.03 % from wind and fossil fuels (Figure 3).Wind energy was introduced into Icelandic energy generation in 2013 with a contribution of 2.8 GWh; itincreased and peaked in 2015 at 10.89 GWh (0.06 % of total production) and then decreased to 4.36GWh (0.02 %) in 2018. Oil is used mainly for reserve power and power generation in rural areas whichare not connected to the national grid. Power generation from fossil fuels has decreased from 5.5 GWh(almost 0 % of total production) in 2013 to 1.87 GWh (0.01 %) in ction-and-consumption/7

FRAUNHOFER ISIELECTRICITY COSTS OF ENERGY INTENSIVE INDUSTRIES IN ICELAND – A COMPARISON WITH ENERGY INTENSIVE INDUSTRIES IN SELECTED COUNTRIESDESCRIPTION OF THE ELECTRICITY MARKET AND PRICES IN ICELANDGeneration of energy0.01%30.31%69.66%0.03%0.02%Hydro energyGeothermal energyWind energyFuelEnergy generation (TWh)8151050Hydro energyGeothermal energyWind energyFuelFigure 3: Source of energy generation in Icelanic public power plants in 2018 [source: StatisticsIceland]Iceland’s electricity supply and demand is unique, as the Icelandic government has stated: “Iceland is theworld’s largest green energy producer per capita and the largest electricity producer per capita, withapproximately 55,000 kWh per person per year. In comparison, the EU average is less than 6,000 kWh.” 7Table 1 General information and electricity information regarding Iceland, Norway, Germanyand Quebec (Canada) in 2018CategoryGeneral informationPopulation*Area*GDP**Electricity generationGross Electricity productionHydroGeothermalWindElectricity consumptionFinal 1,542,056bn. %TWh18.49115.91512.93 1%8.54%(2017)174,17IS, NO, DE electricity relevant data are from europe/; Canada (Quebec): Statistics P.MKTP.CD?end 2017&start 1960; Canada (Quebec): quebec-canada/Canada: focus on Quebec: rfls/qc-eng.htmlCompared to the comparison countries and Quebec (see Table 1), Iceland has a small population. Thegross electricity production in Iceland is significantly lower than in Norway (7 times), Quebec (11 nd-industry/energy/

ELECTRICITY COSTS OF ENERGY INTENSIVE INDUSTRIES IN ICELAND – A COMPARISON WITH ENERGY INTENSIVE INDUSTRIES IN SELECTED COUNTRIESDESCRIPTION OF THE ELECTRICITY MARKET AND PRICES IN ICELANDFRAUNHOFER ISIand Germany (32 times). Similarly, final electricity consumption in Iceland is 6 times, 9 times and 28 timeslower than in Norway, Quebec and Germany, respectively (Table 1).The shares of hydro power are high in Iceland (73%), Quebec (95%) and Norway (96%). However, inIceland glaciers play a major role as “batteries” for the hydropower system. Glaciers melting into waterduring warm and dry weather, which reduces the dependency of hydropower on precipitation and thusbalances generating capacity in hydro power plants. In contrast, the hydro power plants in Norway depend on precipitation and snowmelt, and droughts have already caused significant price increases in theNorwegian electricity market (and Nord Pool area).8 Geothermal energy use for electricity production issignificant only in Iceland, while wind power application in the electricity sector is almost negligible. Incontrast, with a share of 4%, wind power is the second largest source of electricity generation in Quebec;the remaining share comprises natural gas, which is mainly consumed during peaks in winter time, dieselfor remote communities, and biomass.9Regarding electricity consumption (see Figure 4), the industry sector holds the highest share in all threecountries and in Quebec, but unlike in Iceland (84%), the shares of the industry sector in Norway (41%),Germany (45%) and Quebec (48%) are not more than half of the final electricity consumption. Commercial and public service sectors have the second highest electricity consumption in Iceland (7%) and inGermany (27%), the third highest in Norway (22%) and in Quebec (13%). These shares in 2018 have notchanged much in comparison with 2017.Final Electricity Consumption by Sector in NorwayGermanyQuebec (2017)22%50%84%1%0%Icelandindustry sectortransport sectorcommercial and public serviceshouseholdsagriculture and forestryFigure 4 Final electricity consumption by sector in Germany, Iceland and Norway in 2018 [source:Eurostat] and in Canada (Quebec)10 in 20172.2Electricity marketFigure 5 below shows the structure of the Icelandic electricity market. In Iceland, most of the powercompanies are in public ownership. The National Power Company Landsvirkjun (state owned) holds thehighest power generation share (71 %), followed by Reykjavik Energy ON (19 %). HS Orka, as a partlypublic owned power company, contributes around 7 % to the electricity fls/qc-eng.html9

10FRAUNHOFER ISIELECTRICITY COSTS OF ENERGY INTENSIVE INDUSTRIES IN ICELAND

electricity consumption from 2008 to 2018. Figure 2: Electricity demand in the Icelandic industrial sector [source: Energy Authority of Iceland] Generation Statistics show that Icelandic electricity gene

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