Bio-based Building Blocks And Polymers

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orfta1602DaBio-based Building Blocksand PolymersGlobal Capacities and Trends 2016 – 2021million t/aBio-based polymers: Evolution of worldwideproduction capacities from 2011 to 202110actual data2% of totalpolymer capacity, 13 billion turnover502011 sPAPBSPBATPHAEPDM-Institut.eu 2016201820192020PLAPEAPCPEF2021PTTFull study available at www.bio-based.eu/marketsAuthors: Florence Aeschelmann (nova-Institute),Michael Carus (nova-institute) and ten renowned international expertsFebruary 2017This is the short version of the market study (249 pages, 2,000).Both are available at www.bio-based.eu/reports.

Bio-based Building Blocks and Polymers www.bio-based.eu/reportsImprintOrder the full reportBio-based Building Blocks and Polymers –Global Capacities and Trends 2016 – 2021The market report and moretrend reports can be orderedfor 2,000 plus VAT atwww.bio-based.eu/reportsPublisherMichael Carus (V.i.S.d.P.)nova-Institut GmbHChemiepark KnapsackIndustriestraße 30050354 Hürth, GermanyAuthors of the short versionMichael Carus (nova-Institute)michael.carus@nova-institut.deAll nova-Institute graphs can be downloadedat www.bio-based.eu/graphicsAll European Bioplastics graphs can bedownloaded atwww.european-bioplastics.org/marketFlorence Aeschelmann (nova-Institute)LayoutNorma Sott2 Edition2017-03 2017 nova-Institut GmbH, Version 2017-03

Bio-based Building Blocks and Polymerswww.bio-based.eu/reports European Bioplastics (EUBP), theEuropean association representingthe interests of the bioplasticsindustry along the entire valuechain, serves as both knowledgepartner and business network forcompanies, experts, and all relevant stakeholdergroups of the industry. Our primary task is toraise awareness and inform policy makers,businesses, and the interested public about theproperties, benefits, and potentials of bioplasticsfor a sustainable society. We therefore providecomprehensive information on all relevant topicssurrounding bioplastics, including an annualglobal market data update, for which we rely onthe longstanding market research expertise of thenova-Institute. Our market data update 2016 hasbeen conducted together with the nova-Instituteand is based on the study ‘Bio-based BuildingBlocks and Polymers’, from which we extractA warm welcome to all readersof our free summary of ourcomprehensive market studyon “Bio-based Building Blocksand Polymers”.The full report is unique and gives you themost comprehensive insight in the bio-basedworld market with latest data on capacities andapplications as well as producers for all relevantbio-based building blocks and polymers. Whatmakes the report unique? We have formed a high-level expert groupfrom Asia, Europe and the US with directcontact to the leading bio-based buildingblock and polymer producers in the world.We show real data for the year 2016 andforecast for 2021.the data for our defined scope of new economybioplastics. For more information, please visitwww.european-bioplastics.org/marketWe offer a 1,000 discount on the first year’smembership fee for organisations that joinEUBP in connection with the purchase of thisstudy by nova-Institute.If you would like to know more about our activities,our members, or the benefits of becoming amember of European Bioplastics, go to ourwebsite www.european-bioplastics.org or contactus directly at info@european-bioplastics.org.Kind regards,Hasso von Pogrell,Managing Director of European Bioplastics We are updating our data every year, sowe have now continuous data for the last 5years. The high and outstanding quality of ourmarket study is proved by three facts: European Bioplastics decided to use onlydata from our expert team. Leading brands are buying our report yearby year.Don’t miss the future of building blocks andpolymers – stay informed with the nova marketreport on “Bio-based Building Blocks andPolymers”.Enjoy our solid data and analysis, we are lookingforward to your feedback.Michael Carus 2017 nova-Institut GmbH, Version 2017-03 3

Bio-based Building Blocks and Polymers www.bio-based.eu/reportsBio-based polymers’ growth rates at same level as global polymers: Worldwide production capacityis forecasted to increase from 6.6 million tonnes in 2016 to 8.5 million tonnes in 2021. In contrastto a 10% annual growth between 2012 and 2014, the capacity growth data now show a 4% annualgrowth rate from 2015 to 2021 – which is almost the same as for the overall global polymer capacity.The main reasons for this slow increase in capacity are low oil prices, low political support and aslower than expected growth of the capacity utilization rate.The new fourth edition of the most comprehensivemarket study of bio-based building blocks andpolymers includes consistent data from the year2012 to the latest data of 2016 and the recentlypublished data from European Bioplastics, theassociation representing the interests of Europe’sbioplastics industry. This update expands themarket study’s range, including further biobased building blocks as precursor of biobased polymers. The nova-Institute carriedout this study in collaboration with renownedinternational experts from the field of biobased building blocks and polymers. The studyPPinvestigates every kind of bio-based polymerand major building blocks produced around theworld.The annual capacity growth rate for bio-basedpolymers has been slowed down sharply since ithas been reduced by more than half since 2015.The lower annual growth rate is due to severalfactors: the low oil prices, the unfavourablepolitical framework in most countries, a slowerthan expected growth of the capacity utilizationrate and the populist debates about using foodcrops for industry use.PEEPDMPVCPMMAEthyleneVinyl sosorbideAPCGlucosePHALactic acidPLAHMDAPUPBS(X)Succinic DN5PATHFSuperabsorbent Polymers3-HPFructoseNatural TTPUPBTTerephthalic acidSBRMethyl MetacrylatePUPETMEGPropylenePBATAcrylic acid5-HMFPlant oilsFurfural2,5-FDCAFatty acidsGlycerolOther Furan-based polymersFurfurylalcoholMPGEpichlorohydrinNatural RubberStarch-based PolymersLignin-based PolymersCellulose-based PolymersPolyolsUPREpoxy resinsPFALCDAPHAPUPUPA nova-Institut.eu 2016Figure 1: Pathways to bio-based polymers (nova-Institute 2016)4 2017 nova-Institut GmbH, Version 2017-03

Bio-based Building Blocks and Polymerswww.bio-based.eu/reports However, some bio-based polymers are stillshowing an impressive growth. The new polymerPHA, the high-performance PA and bio-baseddrop-in PET show the fastest rates of marketgrowth. The bio-based polymer turnover is about 13 billion worldwide in 2016 compared to 11billion in 2014.Strong political support can only be found inItaly and France for biodegradable solutions inthe packaging sector. In this sector, the globaldemand for biodegradable packaging still showsa double digit growth. Additional demand couldcome from the increasing microplastic problem(marine littering), but so far biodegradableplastics have not benefitted from this debate.Share of bio-based polymers in the totalpolymer marketThe bio-based share of overall polymer capacityhad grown over the years: it was 1.4% in 2011.In recent years, the bio-based share has beenstagnating at approximately 2%. The bio-basedBIO-BASED STRUCTURAL POLYMERSpolymer annual capacity growth rate is currentlysimilar to the global polymer annual capacitygrowth rate of 3 – 4%.This study focuses exclusively on bio-basedbuilding block and polymer producers, andthe market data therefore does not cover thebio-based plastics branch. We must clearlydifferentiate between these two terms. A polymeris a chemical compound consisting of repeatingstructural units (monomers) synthesized througha polymerization or fermentation process,whereas a plastic material constitutes a blend ofpolymers, additives and fillers, whose granulatesare ready for use for the industry. Only a strictdifferentiation can avoid double counting.Table 1 gives an overview on the covered biobased polymers and the producing companieswith their locations and production capacitiesfrom 2012 to 2016 with corresponding growthrates. Detailed data for 2015 and 2016 areavailable in the full study.201220142016PRODUCTION CAGRCURRENT BIO- PRODUCING LOCATIONS PRODUCTION PRODUCTION CAGRCAPACITIES CAPACITIES 2012–2014 CAPACITIES 2014–2016BASED CARBON COMPANIES IN 2016(TONNES)(TONNES)CONTENT*IN 2016 AND AND UNTIL (TONNES)UNTIL 2021 2021Cellulose �1,000,0001,500,00022%Ethylene propylene dienemonomer rubberEPDM50% to 70%1145,00045,0000%PolyamidesPA40% to 100%91375,000105,00018%Poly(butylene adipate-coterephthalate)PBATUp to 50%**4475,000100,00015%Up to 100%**Polybutylene succinatePBSPolyethylenePEPolyethylene ylactic acidPLA100%Polytrimethylene terephthalate 0004%2390,000120,00015%13%PolyurethanesPUR10% to 100%––1,100,0001,400,000Starch blends***–25% to %Total*Detailed data for2015 and 2016 availablein the full study6,555,0004%Bio-based carbon content: fraction of carbon derived from biomass in a product(EN 16575 Bio-based products – Vocabulary)** Currently still mostly fossil-based with existing drop-in solutions and a steady upward trend*** Starch in plastic compound nova-Institut GmbH 2016Full study available at www.bio-based.eu/marketsGreen: Growth over the previous yearTable 1: Bio-based polymers, short names, current bio-based carbon content, producing companies with locations andproduction capacities from 2012 to 2016 with corresponding growth rates (nova-Institute 2016) 2017 nova-Institut GmbH, Version 2017-03 5

Bio-based Building Blocks and Polymers www.bio-based.eu/reportsFigure 2: Global production capacities of bioplastics (European Bioplastics 2016)Bio-based polymersIn 2016, the association “European Bioplastics”used exclusively nova-Institute’s market studyas its data source for their recently publishedmarket data. European Bioplastics’s selectionof bio-based polymers and time span differ fromnova- Institute’s. nova-Institute decided to coverfurther bio-based polymers by including furtherbio-based thermosets (epoxies and ethylenepropylene diene monomer rubber (EPDM)) andcellulose acetate (CA).Figure 2 shows European Bioplastics’s growthprojection of bio-based polymers production;these could grow from 4.2 million tonnes in2016 to 6.1 million tonnes in 2021 in absoluteterms.1 The market is clearly dominated bybio-based and non-biodegradable polymers.Bio-based polyurethanes (PUR) and drop-inbio-based polyethylene terephthalate (PET)lead this category. Drop-in bio-based polymersare chemically identical to their petrochemicalcounterparts but at least partially derived frombiomass. European Bioplastics uses plastic asa synonym for polymer.The global capacities in 2016 and 2021 havebeen split by material type in Figures 3 and 4respectively. Bio-based PUR and PET are theoverall market leaders. PUR share is expectedto remain stable and PET share is expected togrow from 22.8% in 2016 to 28.2% in 2021. As a1 Market data graphs are available for download in English and German: www.european-bioplastics.org/market6 2017 nova-Institut GmbH, Version 2017-03

www.bio-based.eu/reports Bio-based Building Blocks and PolymersFigure 3: Global production capacities of bioplastics 2016 (by material type) (European Bioplastics 2016)Figure 4: Global production capacities of bioplastics 2021 (by material type) (European Bioplastics 2016) 2017 nova-Institut GmbH, Version 2017-03 7

Bio-based Building Blocks and Polymers www.bio-based.eu/reportsconsequence, the bio-based non-biodegradablepolymers market is expected to grow furthersince bio-based PUR and PET are part of thiscategory. In 2016 and in 2021 distant runnerups behind bio-based PUR and PET are starchblends and polylactic acid (PLA).The 6.6 million tonnes bio-based polymerproduction capacity represent approximatelya bio-based polymer turnover of about 13billion (6.6 Mio. t (production capacity) x 2.50/kg (estimated average bio-based polymer price)x 0.8 (capacity utilization rate)).Figures 5 and 6 show the main results of novaInstitute’s survey and market analysis. Productioncapacity of bio-based polymers is forecastedto increase from 6.6 million tonnes in 2016 to8.5 million tonnes by 2021. In recent years, thedevelopment of production capacity for biobased polymers showed a compound annualgrowth rate (CAGR) of 4%, which is very similarto petrochemical polymers. Due to their broaderscope, nova-Institute’s projected productioncapacities are much higher than those projectedby European Bioplastics.The most dynamic development is foreseen for thenew bio-based polymers polyhydroxyalkanoates(PHA), which is a big family of different polymers.PHA production capacity is still small in 2016and is projected to almost triple by 2021. Thesecond most dynamic development is foreseenfor polyamides (PA), whose production capacityis expected to almost double by 2021. Bio-baseddrop-in PET and new bio-based polymer PLAare showing interesting growth as well with anapproximately 10% annual growth rate.million t/aBio-based polymers: Evolution of worldwide production capacitiesfrom 2011 to 202120actual dataforecast10in 20162% of totalpolymer capacity, 13 billion turnover2011 in tut.eu 20162021PTTFull study available at www.bio-based.eu/marketsFigure 5: Bio-based polymers: Evolution of worldwide production capacities from 2011 to 2021 (nova-Institute 2016)8 2017 nova-Institut GmbH, Version 2017-03

www.bio-based.eu/reports Bio-based epoxies, PUR, CA and PET have hugeproduction capacities with a well-establishedmarket in comparison with other bio-basedpolymers. However, other bio-based polymerslisted on Figure 6 show strong growth as well.Figure 6 shows the evolution of worldwideproduction capacities only for selected biobased polymers (without bio-based epoxies,PUR, CA and PET). Some of these polymers arebrand new bio-based polymers. That is why theirmarkets are smaller and need to be developedcorrespondingly.Here are some details on each bio-based polymercovered in the report by alphabetical order:Aliphatic polycarbonates (APC) are a big familyof polymers. Most of the bio-based APC are stillin an early stage development. The most wellknown bio-based APC is probably DURABIOTMfrom Mitsubishi. This isosorbide-based polymercan be used in screens and automotive interiorparts since it features high transparency and verygood optical properties.Cellulose acetate (CA) is 50% bio-based (onlybio-based carbon content2 considered in thisreport). This market is similar to that of epoxies:well established, for example cigarette filters andframes for glasses are made from CA.Epoxies are approximately 30% bio-based andare produced out of bio-based epichlorohydrin,which is produced from glycerol, a by-productof the biodiesel industry. The market is wellestablished since epoxies have already beenpartly bio-based for a long time. Productioncapacities of bio-based epoxies andepichlorohydrin are expected to remain steadyuntil 2021. Further epichlorohydrin projects arecurrently placed on hold due to the low oil prices.Bio-based Building Blocks and PolymersEthylene propylene diene monomer rubber(EPDM) is made out of bio-based ethyleneand can be 50% to 70% bio-based. Specialtychemicals company Lanxess is currentlyproducing bio-based EPDM in Brazil. The marketis small but a steady growth is expected in thecoming years through the development of newgrades and new applications.Polyamides (PA) are a big family since there aremany different types of polyamides. This explainsthe wide range of bio-based carbon content: from40% to 100%. Polyamides are generally basedon sebacic acid, which is produced from castoroil. Evonik has recently developed a polyamidebased on palm kernel oil. Production is expectedto almost double by 2021. The market is headedby one big player, Arkema. Cathay IndustrialBiotech entered the market in 2015 and plannedan expansion in the coming years.Poly(butylene adipate-co-terephthalate) (PBAT)is also currently mostly fossil-based. PBATis produced from 1,4-butanediol (1,4-BDO),terephthalic acid (TPA) and adipic acid (AA).PBAT is biodegradable. PBAT can theoreticallybe up to 50% bio-based since bio-based adipicacid is not available yet. It is currently still at theresearch stage. PBAT has mostly been producedby one big company, BASF, but a new player,Jinhui Zhaolong High Technology, entered themarket in 2014.Polybutylene succinate (PBS) is biodegradableand currently mostly fossil-based but could intheory be 100% bio-based. PBS is produced from1,4-BDO, succinic acid and often in combinationwith a third monomer. The building blocks areavailable bio-based but 1,4-BDO entered themarket only in 2016. PBS is currently producedexclusively in Asia. In 2016, PTT MCC Biochemopened its new facility in Thailand. Further newprojects are not expected in the coming yearsdue to the low oil prices.2 Bio-based carbon content: fraction of carbon derived in a product (EN 16575 Bio-based products from biomass – Vocabulary) 2017 nova-Institut GmbH, Version 2017-03 9

Bio-based Building Blocks and Polymers www.bio-based.eu/reportsSelected bio-based polymers: Evolution of worldwide productioncapacities from 2011 to 2021million t/a2.5actual dataforecast21.510.52011 TTPAPBATPHAEPDMAPCPEF-Institut.eu 201620202021PBSFull study available at www.bio-based.eu/marketsFigure 6: Selected bio-based polymers: Evolution of worldwide production capacities from 2011 to 2021 (nova-Institute 2016)Polyethylene (PE) is a 100% bio-based drop-inpolymer. The bio-based building block needed isbio-based ethylene, which is made out of sugarcane. Brazilian petrochemical company Braskemproduces bio-based PE in Brazil. Bio-based PEhas been on the market for a few years but itsproduction capacity has hitherto remained thesame. Further developments have been sloweddown because of the shale gas boom.Polyethylene furanoate (PEF) is 100% biobased and is produced out of bio-based2,5-furandicarboxylic acid (2,5-FDCA) andmonoethylene glycol (MEG). PEF is a brand newpolymer, which is expected to enter the marketin 2020. PEF is comparable to PET. PET is usedin bottle production and PEF is intended to beused for this application as well. However, PEFis said to have better properties, such as betterbarrier properties, than PET. Several companies10 are active on the monomer and polymerdevelopments for this product.Polyethylene terephthalate (PET) is currently20% bio-based and produced out of bio-basedMEG and TPA as a drop-in bio-based polymer.TPA is currently still petro-based but subject toongoing R&D, small amounts of bio-based TPAcan already be produced at pilot scale. Mostbio-based PET and MEG are produced in Asia.Bio-based PET is one of the leaders of the biobased polymers market. This is largely due tothe Plant PET Technology Collaborative (PTC)initiative launched by The Coca Cola Company.However, PET development has recently sharplyslowed down due to decision of the stakeholders.For this reason, the current forecast stronglydiffers from the forecast in our last report fromDecember 2015. 2017 nova-Institut GmbH, Version 2017-03

www.bio-based.eu/reports Polyhydroxyalkanoates (PHA) are 100% biobased and biodegradable even in cold seawater. PHA are produced through a fermentationprocess mainly by specific bacteria. Manydifferent companies are involved in the productionof many different PHA products, which cannot becompared to each other. The market is c

Bio-based polymers’ growth rates at same level as global polymers: Worldwide production capacity is forecasted to increase from 6.6 million tonnes in 2016 to 8.5 million tonnes in 2021. In contrast to a 10% annual growth between 2012 and 2014, the capacity growth data now show a 4% annual

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