2015 CLIMATE CHANGE AND HEALTH RESILIENCY REPORT
2015 CLIMATE CHANGEAND HEALTH RESILIENCY REPORTR H O D E I S L A N D D E PA R T M E N T O F H E A LT H C L I M AT E C H A N G E P R O G R A M
CDC Climate-Ready Cities and States InitiativeCDC-RFA-EH12-1202Award # 5UE1EH001040-03Building Resilience Against Climate Effects in State, Territorial and Tribal Health DepartmentsClimate Change ProgramThe Rhode Island Department of HealthDivision of Community, Family, Health, and EquityHealthy Homes and EnvironmentPrincipal Investigator: Robert Vanderslice, PhDProgram Manager:Julia Gold, MAThank you to our contributing authors and researchers for their hard work and support for this project.From the Brown University School of Public Health, Professor Greg Wellenius, Melissa Eliot, andSamantha Kingsley have helped immensely with epidemiological support, our interns Alex Durand andAmy Sung, both students at Brown University, contributed to various sections in the report. Amie Parrisand Sean McCormick, colleagues at HEALTH, contributed to the sections on Water Quality and Vibrio.The issue of climate change is one that requires maximum collaboration and our work would not bepossible without the help of our numerous partners throughout Rhode Island and within the CDC’sBRACE community. The full list of our partners in included at the end of the report.
Dear Colleagues,The destabilizing effects of climate change on our environment are among the most significant potentialhealth threats faced by individuals and Rhode Island communities today. Our mental health, physicalhealth, the infrastructure of our cities and towns, and the safety of our food and water will all be impactedby more frequent heat waves, storms, droughts, floods, and sea level rise. In Rhode Island, where oureconomy, culture, and identity are all so closely tied to the ocean and to Narragansett Bay, the effects ofclimate change will be particularly acute.Although the scale and intensity of future climate change impacts are uncertain, we can certainly preparefor these changes and adapt to make Rhode Island as safe, healthy, and resilient as possible. The RhodeIsland Department of Health (HEALTH) is partnering with leaders throughout the state on this importantwork. For example, HEALTH and Brown University are studying the effects of temperature on morbidityand mortality and HEALTH and the Rhode Island Division of Elderly Affairs are examining ways to makeelderly housing in our state more resilient. In the months and years to come, holistic collaboration will beessential across healthcare, education, transportation, and environmental management, among otherfields.This Climate and Health Resiliency Report builds on existing research and lays out the effects of climatechange in Rhode Island with great clarity and detail. It includes valuable tools and diagrams, such asocial vulnerability index by census tract and various data projections, such as increases in heat-relatedemergency department visits over the next 70 years. This report can be used by organizations throughoutour state to set priorities and goals together and to outline a path forward toward a safer, healthier RhodeIsland.If you are interested in learning more about climate change and climate change programs in Rhode Island,don’t hesitate to contact HEALTH. Because good public health policy is a result of spirited collaboration,we welcome insight and thoughts from throughout the state.Thank you for all the work that you do to protect and promote the health and safety of Rhode Islanders.Sincerely,Michael Fine, M.D.Director of Health
Aerial Photo of Port of Providence4RHO DE I SL A N D CLIM ATE CHA NGE A N D RESILIENC Y REP O RT
TABLE OF CONTENTSIntroduction. 6Extreme Heat and Rising Temperatures. 14Air Quality. 25Extreme Weather. 32Water Quality. 40Vibrio. 50Vector-borne Disease. 58Mental Health. 69Conclusion. 79Program Partners. 80Bibliography. 81TA BLE O F CON TEN T S5
“ In the face of challenge, weneed champions throughoutthe world who will work toput protecting human healthat the center of the climatechange agenda.”iDr. Margaret ChanWorld Health Organization Director-General16RHO DE I SL A N D CLIM ATE CHA NGE A N D RESILIENC Y REP O RT
INTRODUC TIONThe Rhode Island Department of Health, Climate Change ProgramFunded by The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the Rhode Island Department of Health(HEALTH) Climate Change Program is part of a national effort to anticipate and prepare for human healtheffects related to global and local climate change. CDC’s Building Resilience Against Climate Effects(BRACE) framework is focused on integrating epidemiological data and climate change models to developprojections, identify vulnerabilities, and inform public health planning. The national effort includes theparticipation and collaboration of sixteen states and two cities. Five New England states, plus New Yorkand New York City participate in a regional collaborative of BRACE programs.FIGURE 1. THE BRACE FRAMEWORKThe Rhode Island Department of Health’sClimate Change and Health Resiliency1.ForecastingClimate Impactsand AssessingVulnerabilitiesReport synthesizes research on climatechange impacts on human health, identifies the threats climate change posesto the well-being of Rhode Islanders,5.Evaluating Impactand ImprovingQuality tsProjecting theDisease Burdenand describes best practices that canstrengthen the capacity and effectiveness of public health interventionsaddressing climate impacts in the state.The report fulfills the requirement inlegislation that was enacted in July 20144.Developing andImplementing aClimate HealthAdaptation Plan3.AssessingPublic HealthInterventionsin Rhode Island to “[d]evelop a climateand health profile report that documentsthe range of health impacts associatedwith climate change and identifies themost vulnerable populations.” R.I.G.L42-6.2-3(10).* It also completes action item 6.3.1 in the June 2014 report A Resilient Rhode Island, BeingPractical about Climate Change, submitted by the Rhode Island Executive Climate Change Council. Withthis report, HEALTH hopes to contribute to efforts to enhance resilience to the threat of climate changeand support the inclusion of public health within the many discourses and efforts addressing the issue atlocal, state, regional and national levels.IN T RO DUC T ION7
The Rhode Island Department of Health Climateand Resiliency Report is the first step to the development of a climate and health adaptation plan for theDepartment. The report describes the threats thatclimate change poses to the State and its particularlyvulnerable populations and offers best practices tocounter these threats and protect vulnerable groups.The report highlights the Climate Change Program’scurrent activities and pilot projects. In addition,personal stories from Rhode Islanders are included aspart of our Faces of Climate Change interviews.The report contains separate sections for sevenclimate and health impacts faced in Rhode Island:heat, air quality, extreme weather, water quality,vibrio, vector-borne disease and mental health. Eachsection covers the primary health impacts, climateprojections, vulnerable populations, best practices,current projects, and next steps.8*Commonly referred to as the Resilient RhodeIsland Act, the law codifies an earlier executiveorder, establishing the Executive Climate ChangeCoordinating Council, which is tasked with coordinating work by state agencies to mitigate theeffects of climate change to the extent possible (thelaw sets specific greenhouse gas emission reductiontargets), as well as develop effective adaptationstrategies; coordinating with local and federalgovernments as well as the private sector, including educational institutions; and improving publicunderstanding of, and engagement in, matters ofclimate change. The Act emphasizes resilience asa positive and practical rallying theme for collaboration across sectors and disciplines. It directs allstate agencies to incorporate climate resilience intotheir planning, decision-making and operations. Apublic Advisory Board representing multiple sectorsas well as a Science and Technical Advisory Boardare established to assist the Council. More information on the legislation and the work of theCouncil, including its report, can be found O DE I SL A N D CLIM ATE CHA NGE A N D RESILIENC Y REP O RT
Our Changing ClimateThe Climate and Health Resiliency Report uses data and projections provided by TetraTech, a globalengineering and consulting service, as well as data provided by the National Oceanic and AtmosphericAdministration (NOAA), the National Climate Assessment, and other resources to describe the changes inRhode Island’s climate that have already occurred and to predict how climate will change in the future.Average global temperatures have risen significantly since pre-industrial times. Eleven of the past twelveyears are among the twelve warmest years on instrumental record (since 1850), and the global averagesurface temperature has risen roughly 1.5 degrees Fahrenheit in this time period.2 These temperatureincreases are associated with increases in atmospheric levels of fossil fuel combustion products as wellas impacts from changing land-use patterns. Research sponsored, synthesized and analyzed by theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates that global temperatures will rise as much as 8 Fby the end of the century.3 Sophisticated predictive modeling gives us an idea of how these increasedtemperatures promote large scale changes in ocean acidification, sea-level rise, and increased frequencyand intensity of extreme weather events.Climate change poses new and unfamiliar threats to human health around the world. Climate changecompromises the stability of ecological and evolutionary relationships that sustain life on earth,impacting human health in ways that are many and varied. In addition to the seven impacts described inseparate sections of this report, climate change affects morbidity and mortality from natural disasters,global food security, access to safe water, and more.Climate Change in Rhode IslandFuture climateClimate change will result in both general shifts inthe baseline environment and greater frequencyand intensity of extreme weather events. Themagnitude of climate change depends primarilyon the amount of warming caused by greenhousegas emissions, land-use changes, and the climate’ssensitivity to emissions. The workings of climateand Earth systems are extremely complex, andclimate models sometimes disagree about the exactnature of future changes. Nevertheless, confidencein climate change projections has increased.By 2100 Average global temperature may rise as muchas 8 F Sea level may rise as much as 3-5 feet Summer heat advisories and air quality alerts willbecome more frequent Winters will become increasingly shorter, warmer,and wetter Flood events will become more frequent Hurricanes and storms will become more intenseClimate change impacts seen in Rhode Islandinclude more frequent heat waves, heavy downpours,drought, storms, and flooding.Mean annual temperatures are rising significantly.Since 1895, average temperatures in the Northeasthave increased by 2 F.4 Rhode Island climate changemodels predict that this average will continue torise at an accelerating rate, potentially climbinganother 1.6 F by 2022 and as much as 5.7 F by 2084.5Although they may seem minor, these small changesin average temperature are driving a significanttransformation in the region’s weather patterns. Forexample, some parts of the Northeast are projectedto experience an average of 60 additional 90 daysper year between 2041 and 2070.6 By 2085, thetotal number of heat advisories (a measure of thecombined effects of heat and humidity) is projectedto increase from 51 per summer to 70, and theIN T RO DUC T ION9
number of more serious “Danger” heat advisoriesincreasing from 1 to 4.7 Because warmer air has aFIGURE 2. PROJECTED INCREASES IN THE NUMBER OFDAYS OVER 90 Fgreater capacity to carry moisture, this warmer airwill also be much more humid. The combinationof heat and humidity will exacerbate the healthimpacts of rising temperatures and make theperceived temperature feel even hotter.The intensity of Atlantic hurricanes is likely toincrease. Since the 1980s, Atlantic hurricaneactivity has increased substantially.8 Predictingfuture hurricane activity is extremely complex;predictive models do not always agree. The mostrecent National Climate Assessment synthesizes theresults of many models of Atlantic storm activity.The models project a slight decrease in total yearlynumber of hurricanes, but predict an increase in thenumber of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes.9 The modelstend to agree that rainfall rates in hurricanes willincrease in a warmer climate. Increased hurricaneprecipitation combined with Rhode Island’s sea levelrise indicates that the effects of storm surge willincrease markedly during hurricanes. With a 3 footProjected increase in the number of days per year witha maximum temperature greater than 90 F averagedbetween 2041 and 2070, compared to 1971-2000,assuming continued increases in global emissions (A2) andsubstantial reductions in future emissions (B1).(Figure source: NOAA NCDC / CICS-NC).rise in sea level, even a Nor’easter (extra-tropical storm) could submerge coastal areas of the state, cuttingoff the southwestern peninsula of Newport from the mainland.10 The experience of Hurricane Sandyalso suggests the potential for hurricanes to become significantly larger in diameter, affecting a broadergeographic area and further straining response and recovery resources.11Rhode Island’s sea level is rising faster than the global average. Sea levels have been rising for more thana century following a millennium of little change. Global measurements from tide gages and satellitealtimetry show that the rate of sea level rise has accelerated in recent years, nearly doubling since 1993.12,13In Rhode Island sea level is rising faster than the global average, due in part to land subsidence and in partto changes in ocean circulation patterns as a result of climate change.14 Various studies predict that sealevel may be several feet higher than today’s levels by the turn of the century. (See references below). Thistrend will continue well into the future beyond the end of this century due to the melting of the Greenlandand West Antarctic ice sheets that add water to the ocean basins.15 A study by TetraTech for the RIDOHmodeled anticipated sea level rise of 0.26 to 0.65 feet by 2022, 0.76 to 1.54 feet by 2052, and 1.43 to 2.92 feetby 2084. The RI Coastal Resources Management Council sea level rise policy expects a 3 to 5 foot sea levelrise by 2100 for coastal management and adaptation planning. Both the TetraTech study and CRMC policyshould be considered as a minimum for planning efforts, particularly for the siting and construction ofcritical public infrastructure.16,1710RHO DE I SL A N D CLIM ATE CHA NGE A N D RESILIENC Y REP O RT
Various studies predict that sea level may be several feet higher than today’s levels by the turn of thecentury (References)1. G rinstead et al 2010 – Reconstructing sea level from paleo and projected temperatures 200 to 2100AD.2. Vermeer & Rahmstorf 2009 – Global sea level linked to global temperature3. P feffer et al. 2008 –Kinematic constraints on glacier contributions to 21st century sea-level-rise.4. R ahmstorf 2007 – A semi-empirical approach to projecting future sea level rise.5. Jevrejeva et al 2011 – Sea level projections to AD2500 with new generation of climate change scenarios.Increases in sea level elevations will impact Rhode Island’s low-lying coastal communities. Some areaswill be flooded at high tides and eventually be permanently inundated. Storm surges will be higher andpenetrate farther inland than at present. Moreover, storm surges that were experienced only during rareevents will become more frequent occurrences as sea level continues to rise. Damages will increase tohomes and infrastructure in coastal areas, including health care facilities, water and sewer systems,transportation networks and the energy grid. Sea level rise will result in groundwater intrusion intocoastal aquifers and affect drinking water supplies. Additionally, it may result in the displacement ofcoastal populations.Extreme precipitation and flood events are becoming more frequent and extreme. Flooding is alreadyone of the major natural hazards affecting Rhode Island. Climate models indicate that heavy rain eventsin Rhode Island will become less regular but more intense, which may result in more frequent and extremeflooding along the State’s river systems, coastline, and any areas that do not have adequate infiltration orstormwater controls.18 In 2010 alone, the State experienced two “100-year” (or 1% annual chance) floodsand increased precipitation intensity will significantly worsen the impact of such incidents. Since 1991,the Northeast has already seen an 8% increase in overall precipitation and, since 1958, a 71% rise in heavyrain events.19 Flood modeling indicates that, with a 3-foot rise in sea-level, a 1% annual chance flood eventfor Providence would inundate all coastal regions near Providence Harbor, most of Downtown, SouthFlooding at Rhodes on the Pawtuxet, CranstonIN T RO DUC T ION11
Elmwood, and Washington Park neighborhoods. 20 The impact of a similar event in Newport would be evenmore devastating, submerging large portions of southern and western Newport.21 Flood events are likelyto result in proliferation of waterborne diseases, contamination of local waterways, damage to homes andbusinesses, infrastructure loss, widespread psychological trauma, and long-term effects on local economies.22Winters are becoming shorter and wetter. Although New England winters are expected to become shorterand warmer over the coming decades, climate models suggest that precipitation in the Northeast willincrease during the winter months.23 The number of freezing (below 32 F) days is expected to decreasesignificantly in the Northeast, by approxi
separate sections of this report, climate change affects morbidity and mortality from natural disasters, global food security, access to safe water, and more. Climate Change in Rhode Island Climate change impacts seen in Rhode Island include more frequent heat waves, heavy downpours, drought, storms, and flooding.
Food Security and Nutrition 1.1.Climate Change and Agriculture Climate change shows in different transformations of climate variables that are causing significant economic, social and environmental effects. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in 2002, has defined climate change as “any change in climate over time,
Gender and climate change – Women as agents of change. IUCN climate change briefing, December 2007 Gender, Climate Change and Human Security. Lessons from Bangladesh, Ghana and Senegal. Prepared for ELIAMEP for WEDO, May 2008 Gender and Climate Change. Gender in CARE’s Adaptation Learning Programme for Africa. CARE and Climate Change, 2011 –
Global warming is when Earth’s air and the water get warmer. Global warming is one part of climate change. This does not sound good! Climate Change in American Samoa You may have heard people talk about Climate Change or Global Warming. Do you know what these are? Uh-oh! 5 Fill in the blank spaces with words from the word bank: Climate change affects the climate of the entire _. Climate .
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International Public Opinion on Climate Change 6 1.2 The great majority of respondents think climate change is happening. After being asked about their current level of knowledge about climate change, respondents were given a short definition of climate change: "Climate change refers to the idea that the world's average
The role of science in environmental studies and climate change. - Oreskes, “The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change,” Climate Change, chapter 4 Unit 2: A Primer on Climate Change Science and Why It Is So Controversial Tu 2/10 Science 1: Climate Change Basics - Mann and Kump, D
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4 Climate Change 101: climate science basics page 6 Climate change in the U.S. Climate change will appear differently in different regions of the U.S., just as different patients may experience the same illness differently, depending on pre-existing health status, socioeconomic factors and environmental context. Below are
