China's Energy Transition And Development Path - IEF

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China’s Energy Transition andDevelopment PathReport series of China energy and petrochemical industryZuoxian LuoMarch 20th 2019

CONTENTS1.Evolution of China's Energy Supply and Demand Structure2.Coal Demand and Development Trend3.Oil Demand and Development Trend4.Gas Demand and Development Trend5.Non-fossil Energy Demand and Development Trend6.Future Energy Demand and International Cooperation

Evolution on China's EnergySupply and Demand

Energy production and consumption have maintained growth and energy self-sufficiency has declinedOilCoalGas Energy consumption grew; Supply stable; Self-sufficiency rate :111.8% (1985) to 98.2% (1992), 93.7% (2000) and 79% (2018).reserve138.8 billion tonsR/P39reserve3.5 billion tonsR/P18.3reserve5.5 trillion cubic m³R/P36.7 Domestic oil and gas production is stable. Growth of oil and gas consumption replaces coal. 2018, coal consumption dropped to 59%, 10 % lower than in 2000.4

China Key economic development indexes estimated2018: proportion of tertiary2018:1.40 billion2018:60%2018:GDP growth 6.9%industry 51.6%2029:1.44 billion, peak2030:70%2030:GDP growth ionEconomic Growth5

Targets for 2030 within the framework of China's energy revolutionTotal Energy Demand: 4.2billion toeGreenhouse gas per unit of GDP: reduces 60%-65% than 2005Terminal energy consumption : electricity increases to 30%Energy consumption revolution2020/2030,energy demand : below 5/6 billion tce(3.5/4.2 billion toe).Oil2.2% VS 2018Energy supply revolutionAdded energy is mainly from clean energyGas7% VS 2018Coal9% VS 2018International cooperationOverseas cooperation;one belt one road energy corridorTechnology revolutionEnergy-saving technologies; smart energy technologiesNon-fossil11% VS 2018Energy system revolution Effective and competitive energy market system; Market-oriented pricing mechanism; Energy legal system.6

Coal Demand and Development Trend

Coal consumption reached its peak on 2013Coal consumption, production and imports(100 million tons)452013, coal consumption andimports peaking at the same time.Consumption:4.2 billion tonsImports : 0.3 billion tons19902005402005, difference between consumption and35production expand, coal imports accelerated.Three stages of China's coalconsumption since 1990 Steady development; Production exceeded consumption Self-sufficiency3025Consumption:2.4 billion tonsProduction : 2.3 billion tons20052013 Consumption increased Imports increased20 Energy conservation15 Emission reduction102013-5 Energy structure transition Cutting the backward capacity0 Encourage the import of high-quality coalconsumptionproductionimportSince 2005, China's dependence ratio on foreign coal remained between 6% and 7.5%. The external dependence ratio of 2018 is 7.3%.8

Coal demand will decline in the future.Power generationBuilding materials: progress in RE powerstorage technology andsupport system for grid Slower development step. 57% of total coal used forpower in 2035 and 45% in2050.Steel entering stable stage 10% of coal demand in steel in2030, 7% in 2050.Coal demand target4.0-4.1 billion tonsCoal demand target3.5-4.0 billion tons2016-20202021-2030 13% of coal used in2017,and6% in 2050.Chemicals Modern coal chemicalindustry develop Increase from 7% in 2017to 30% in 2050.Coal demand target3.0-3.5 billion tons2031-20509

Optimization of coal industry is to mainly promote construction of integrated baseCoal productionBase construction:coal production, chemical conversion,electricity, building materials integratedCoal cleanenergy baseCoal powerChemical productionCoal to oil (gas)International cooperation in science andtechnology promote base constructionPower gridtransmissionPipelinetransportationOlefins, etc.LandtransportationAround 2020, the output of 14 large coal bases will be 3.7 billion tons, accounting formore than 95% of the total coal production.10

Oil Demand and Development Trend

Domestic production decrease and refining capacity increase led to external dependence ratio riseChina oil na oil demand,foreign dependenceratio(10 thousandtons)tons)(10 thousand7000064800 on tonsmillion tons million ign dependence ratioNet increase of 18 milliontonsRefining capacityreached 770 million tons2017Net increase of 22million tonsRefining capacityreached 830 million tons201812

China has more oil trade partners in the worldOil imports by major countries(10 thousand tons)700060002017 imports of52 million tons500040002000 imports of16 million tons3000200010000Imports in 2000Imports in 2017Importing country in 2000New importing countries in 2017 2000: 30 importing countries, covering the Middle East, Africa, Europe/former Soviet Union, the Americas and the AsiaPacific region. The import volume was led by the Middle East, nearly 38 million tons, far exceeding other regions. 2017: 43 importing countries, 13 of which were added and mainly from Africa, America and Europe. Most of the newimports came from the Middle East and Europe, with Saudi Arabia increase more than 45 million tons.13

The oil demand will reach its peak with over 700 million tons around 2027.Gasoline: replaced by electrification; a decade ofgrowth709million tonsDiesel: replaced by gas in urban buses,and truck transportation.Aviation kerosene: Driven by annual growthrate of passenger turnover.Data sources: EDRIBy 2030:Number of electric :50-80 million ; 1/4 of the total.Energy efficiency :the world's advanced levelChina’s population:Urbanization level:1.44 billion70%14

Domestic supply: widen E&P fields and EOR technologies Resource conversion rate is Rich in petroleumResource 35% proven, and hasResourceConversionRatepotentialLow Improving recovery andconversion rate throughtechnological progress Shale oil and oil sandsare rich.Unconventionals The State Key Laboratoryof Shale Oil has been set Diversified investorsOutput Oil production will havespace for growthup .15

Natural Gas Demand and DevelopmentTrend

Natural gas demand is growing rapidly, with the External dependence exceeding 40%Utilization acceleratingNatural gas utilization policiesMedium and long-term energy planningoutline: Energetically develop natural gasThe west-east gas pipeline in operationBegin of pipeline gas importBegin of LNG import10 measures for the prevention and control ofair pollution.Source:Operation bureau of national development and reform commission,EDRI First stage(before 2000)Stable demand(2000-2010)Utilization around of fieldIndustrial gas is dominant Cross-regional utilizationCity gas demand growthPeriod of Rapid demand Import accelerateChannels and domestic pipelineOptimization of demand17

Diversified imports, more gas trade partners, quick LNG import growth 2006-2007,85% came from longterm contracts in Australia The rest from spot contracts in Oman,Algeria and Nigeria.Map of LNG and pipeline gas import of Russia 2012, mainly from Qatar, Australia,Indonesia, Malaysia, Yemen and Russia.Central AsiaAmericaAlgeriaAngolaCameroonEgyptEquatorial guineaNigeriaNew exporters in 2018OmanQatarYemenMyanmarAsia PacificIndonesiaMalaysiaAustraliaPapua New GuineaExporters in 2012China’s LNG import structure in 2012PeruTrinidad andTobago CanadaU.S.A.Middle EastAfricaImported from Yemen only in 2012Countries and regions of pipeline gas import China has imported LNG from more than 20 countries in 2018.Qatar34%Malaysia13%China’s LNG import structure in 2018others, 11%Australia24%U.S.A., 4%Indonesia16%Papua NewGuinea, 5%Australia,44%Indonesia,9%others Yemen4%6%Russia3%Malaysia,11%Qatar, 17%18

Medium and long-term gas demand structure will be stableChina's natural gas consumption forecast (bcm)205034%33%40836%City gas160810%204024%2030Power39%Industrial 0 bcm189 bcmIndustrialfuel91 bcm231 bcmCity gas110 bcm210 bcmChemicalmaterials26 bcm70 bcm18%Source:EDRIPOWER: If gas turbine technologycan be mastered, fixed cost of gaspower plant will be reduced from 90%to 30%.CHEMICAL MATERIALS:Growth will be slower.INDUSTRIAL FUELEmission reductionEfficiency improvementPromoted to nationwideCITY GAS: Rate of gasification :80%Gas in public transportation andfreight logistics be promoted.19

Key Projects for Natural GasUpstream E&PPipeline networkinterconnectionIncrease investmentto discovermore reserves andoutput.Key natural gas infrastructureconnectivity projects for 2019have been launched.Gas storgeIncrease workinggas storge capacityundergroundLNG TerminalsKeep quick pace onconstruction of LNGterminals,.20

Non-fossil Energy Demand andDevelopment Trend

Technological advancements enhance Non-fossil energy’s competitiveness From 2017 to 2025, China‘s large solar photovoltaic and onshore wind power investment costs will bereduced by about 50% and 30% LCOE cost of electricity will be reduced by about 35% and 25% respectively.China’s large Photovoltaic station installed cost and LCOEChina’s onshore wind power station installed cost and tment Cost, RMB Yuan/kW10LCOE, RMB Yuan/kWhLCOE, RMB Yuan/kWh0.5Investment Cost, RMB Yuan/kW0.542025020172020LCOE2022Investment Cost2025(0.1)0LCOEInvestment CostNote: National average, LCOE: Levelized Cost of Electricity. Data sources: Chinese State Grid Energy Research Institute, IRENA22

Non-fossil energy: China’s electricity generation capacity will keep fast growingChina's Non-fossil energy cumulative installed power capacityChina's Non-fossil energy electricity generation8000Electricity generation, TWhCumulative installed powercapacity, 000Hydro powerWindBio-powerSolar PVCSPothersNuclear power2050Hydro powerWindBio-powerSolar 520252020202020152015201020102005200500Nuclear power 2018, China’s non-Fossil energy cumulative installed power capacity is 780 GW, 40% of the total installedpower capacity, generating 2200 TWh of electricity, 30% of total electricity generation. 2050, China’s non-Fossil energy cumulative installed power capacity will be over 2800 GW, generating7300 TWh of electricity.23

Energy Demand & InternationalCooperation Outlook

Outlook on China Medium-Long Term Energy Demand China's energy transition : Coal demand reduction; clean use of coal natural gas demand increase stable oil demand; non-fossil energy keep growth Total energypeaking around20454.2 billion toe Coal continues to decline 34% of total by 2050OilPeaking around 2030720 million tons Natural gasPeaking around 2050700 billion m³ Non-fossil1.4 billion toe by 2050,35% of totalMain energy source25

Chinese companies' overseas business will maintain steady developmentUpstream More than 30 oil and gas companies have overseas business More than 200 oil and gas projects in 50 countriesChemicalRefining 12 overseas refining projects Total refining capacity of 73.6million tons/year.Engineering serviceMarket service in Russia,Central Asia, the Middle Eastand South Asia2010-2016,Keep growth in overseas investmentTotal overseas investment : 200 billion yuanTrading More oil and gas trade partners Trading has become an important link26

China's booming oil and gas industry is providing opportunities for global enterprises International cooperation will enhance energy and chemical industries.More foreign enterprises are entering Chinese market.Refining & ChemicalPipeline China is committed to buildinghigh-end, low-energy consumptionpetrochemical integration base. By 2020, build 7 domestic bases. infrastructure constructionacceleratingOil and gas E&P Domestic upstream market will befurther open Cooperation field diversified The new negative list of foreigninvestment encourages multipleinvestment entities to enter27

Q&A

support system for grid 57% of total coal used for power in 2035 and 45% in 2050. Steel entering stable stage 10% of coal demand in steel in 2030, 7% in 2050. Building materials: Slower development step. 13% of coal used in2017,and 6% in 2050. Chemicals Modern coal chemical industry develop Increase from 7% in 2017 to 30% in 2050.

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