Scaling Up Renewable Energy (Sure) Y O P M E (Mel) Plan

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HANZ RIPE / USAID COLOMBIA SCALING UP RENEWABLE ENERGY (SURE) YEAR ONE PROJECT MONITORING, EVALUATION, & LEARNING (MEL) PLAN November 22, 2017 This publication was produced for review by the United States Agency for International Development. It was prepared by the Scaling up Renewable Energy Activity (Tetra Tech ES, prime contractor)

YEAR ONE PROJECT MONITORING, EVALUATION, & LEARNING (MEL) PLAN Prepared for: Energy and Infrastructure Office US Agency for International Development 1300 Pennsylvania Ave NW, Washington DC 20523 Prepared by: Tetra Tech ES, Inc. 1320 North Courthouse, Suite 600 Arlington, VA 22201 USAID TASK ORDER AID-OAA-I-13-00019AID-OAA-TO-17-00011 DISCLAIMER: The views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government. This publication was produced for review by the United States Agency for International Development. It was prepared by the Scaling Up Renewable Energy Project (Tetra Tech ES, prime contractor) 3


ACRONYMS & ABBREVIATIONS ADS CE CLA COR COP DQA GCC GCCSI GHG IR M&E MEL PAD PII PIRS PMP SBU SURE USAID Automated Directives System Clean Energy Collaboration, Learning, Adaptation Contracting Officer Representative Chief of Party Data Quality Assurance Global Climate Change Global Climate Change Standard Indicator(s) Greenhouse Gas Immediate result Monitoring and Evaluation Monitoring, Evaluation & Learning Project Appraisal Document Personally Identifiable Information Performance Indicator Reference Sheet Performance Monitoring Plan Sensitive But Unclassified Scaling Up Renewable Energy United States Agency for International Development i

INTRODUCTION This document presents the Monitoring, Evaluation, and Learning (MEL) Plan for the Scaling Up Renewable Energy (SURE) Task Order under the Energy IDIQ, for the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). SURE will contribute to increasing grid-connected renewable energy (RE) capacity through helping to create an enabling environment for scaling up RE and also working actively to assist to scale up levels of existing clean energy capacity. The period of performance is from June 2, 2017 through December 9, 2020. SURE’s high-level outcomes include an increase in clean energy capacity, improved grid integration of clean energy, increased competition for generation capacity, strengthened incentives for clean energy, and strategic transmission planning for renewable energy. In addition, clean energy technologies have the potential to offset or divert investment from current or future generation of energy from non-clean energy sources, such as conventional fossil fuel sources. The two-fold purpose of this MEL Plan is to describe how the SURE team will monitor and evaluate the Project and guide the team’s approach with regards to the following tasks: 1. Collecting accurate, reliable, and verifiable data that precisely measures progress towards Project objectives using impact, outcome and output indicators; and 2. Using the resulting information to plan interventions, make programmatic adjustments, and respond to emerging needs and circumstances. This MEL Plan proposes indicators against each of the expected results of the Project. It also describes the processes that will be used to carry out MEL throughout the life of the Project. The plan includes eight annexes: A B C D E F G H Performance indicator summary table Performance indicator reference sheets (PIRS) List of Custom Indicators MEL Plan Change / Adaptive Management Tracker Illustrative Indicator-Disaggregation Table Training Registrant Data Collection Tool Sample Training Sign-in Sheet Sample Weekly Tracker The steps involved in the design of the MEL Plan included the determination of clear and agreed objectives; the designing of appropriate indicators and measurements at different stages of the project for those objectives; the setting of performance measurement targets and baselines, to help inform performance evaluations; the defining of roles and responsibilities; the development of quality control mechanisms and data collection processes; and the establishment of reporting schedules. The MEL Plan is a living document and will be revised and adapted, as needed, over the course of the Project and in accordance with the workplan, which will include elements of adaptive management. Due to the nature of this document, we will routinely consult with the USAID Contracting Officer Representative (COR) and other key stakeholders to adjust the annual target results and further refine the means of verification. This collaborative and participatory approach to development of the plan will: 1) ensure transparency and consensus of anticipated results; 2) foster ownership and the sustainability of successes; 3) develop a shared vision of both immediate and long-term success; and 4) provide space for stakeholders and staff to discuss the roles and responsibilities needed to meet and perhaps exceed anticipated results. It is expected that the MEL Plan will evolve throughout the life of the project so that 1

the development hypothesis and associated indicators remain relevant to any changes in context and/or understanding through learning. SURE will use adaptive management towards achieving desired outcomes through engaging in monitoring, evaluating and learning. Furthermore, the Global Climate Change (GCC) Standard Indicator Handbook1, which serves as the foundation of the performance indicators, is anticipated to be revised during the activity period of performance, and as such, the SURE team anticipates project reporting will need to be adjusted. ACTIVITY OVERVIEW BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE USAID’s Clean Energy (CE) activities support strong The purpose of the SURE Project is to assist enabling environments so countries can secure clean, USAID partner countries in accessing best affordable and reliable energy to meet their present and practices and technical assistance towards future energy goals. Through the Energy Division’s apply the Building Blocks of strategic energy Advancing Clean Energy Project Appraisal Document planning, grid integration, smart incentives, (PAD) Immediate Result IR 2.2 Increased grid connected renewable energy and immediate results (IR) competitive procurement, and renewable energy zones to bring economic, reliable, 3.1 Decentralized technologies and business models clean energy to scale. tested and scaled, USAID is working towards the strategic objective of low emissions development through investments in clean energy. USAID’s energy portfolio is spurring billions of dollars of clean energy investment and contributing to the addition of tens of thousands of megawatts of new renewable energy generation capacity globally. Access to modern energy will profoundly improve quality of life, economic development, and environmental sustainability in emerging economies. Through evidence-based research, USAID has identified complementary Building Blocks to rapidly and effectively lead the transformation of partner country power sectors towards a renewable, low carbon pathway. These Building Blocks are strategic energy planning, grid integration, renewable energy zones, competitive procurement, and smart incentives. Some countries have already instituted parts of these Building Blocks, while some have not addressed them holistically and some not at all. These concepts are nimble; they can evolve as market conditions change, be adapted to specific country contexts, foster an evolution in power system planning, and work to create competition. They are related; energy regulators cannot interconnect large percentages of their power system to renewable generation without grid integration efforts, or efficiently move new clean energy through the system without some form of strategic long-term planning that optimizes transmission buildout. Together, these Building Blocks will address the barriers to realizing low carbon energy systems and help countries progress towards a structural framework that fosters clean energy growth. The purpose of the SURE Project is to assist USAID partner countries in accessing best practices and technical assistance towards apply the Building Blocks of strategic energy planning, grid integration, smart incentives, competitive procurement, and renewable energy zones to bring economic, reliable, clean energy to scale. These Building Blocks align with USAID’s comparative advantage, and SURE will seek to 1 d-indicator-handbook 2

work in countries where achieving large-scale clean energy deployment is a priority pathway for energy security and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction. USAID will use its comparative advantage to foster a policy environment conducive to the development of large amounts of clean energy at market prices through SURE. PROJECT DEVELOPMENT HYPOTHESIS The development hypothesis underlying SURE, and displayed in the results framework in Figure 1 is that large-scale grid-connected renewable energy projects have been shown to be extremely cost effective in countries where the SURE Building Blocks exist. Therefore, if support is provided for the Building Blocks of strategic energy planning, competitive procurement, grid integration, smart incentives, and/or Renewable Energy Zones (Tasks 1 – 5 respectively), barriers to scaling up low carbon energy projects to large systems will decline and grid-connected renewable energy projects will become more cost competitive. SURE also includes a Clean Energy Technology and Innovation Fund component as Task 6, which will be engaged to augment Tasks 1-5. The purpose of the Innovation Fund is to be a flexible means to encourage the participation and/or collaboration of diverse organizations that might not otherwise be a part of USAID contracting, including public, private, and non-profit entities. Task 7 of SURE is knowledge management and coordination with other USAID projects, which intersects with all of the Tasks supporting SURE’s objective. Task 7 will build knowledge within USAID about the Building Blocks components through in-house trainings on Building Blocks topics, the creation of white papers on relevant work and research topics, and subscriptions to a research service that delivers highquality research and articles on these topics. The combined efforts of these seven tasks will lead to increased private investment in clean energy generation, renewable energy will reach a greater proportion of the electricity generation mix, and greenhouse gas emissions will decrease. 3

Figure 1: SURE Results Framework 4

MEL APPROACH The purpose of this MEL Plan is to describe how the SURE team will monitor and evaluation the Project. The plan also describes the processes that will be used to perform MEL throughout the life of the project. The steps involved in the design of the MEL Plan included the review of the developed and agreed upon project objectives and associated results; designing appropriate indicators and measurements for different stages of the project against those results; setting performance measure targets, baselines, and performance evaluations; defining roles and responsibilities; developing quality control mechanisms and data collection processes; establishing reporting schedules; and identifying and managing risks. The development process of the MEL Plan is collaborative among the SURE technical staff, M&E, and gender specialists from both USAID and Tetra Tech (Tt) and will continue to be so throughout the life of the project. The approach to the MEL Plan is guided by the principle that when MEL systems emphasize quality, accuracy, relevance, standardization in indicator measurement, flexibility to respond to changing contexts, and collaborative learning, MEL moves beyond its traditional role of being a tool for performance management and results tracking. It becomes a guide for adaptive, responsive project management and creates opportunities for collaborative learning and adapting within the project, across activities and across projects. The MEL Plan proposes performance indicators required by the contract, additional Global Climate Change Standard Indicators (GCCSI), USAID gender-specific indicators, and custom indicators for future activities, all of which will be matched against each of the expected results in the SURE results framework. The approach focuses on well-designed indicators, both standard and custom, that are vetted by MEL experts with experience creating and assessing MEL systems. It explicitly includes assumptions and risks that may influence indicator values and project results. The approach focuses on accurate and reliable data collection methodologies and practices that are verified through regular internal and external data quality assessments, and regularly scheduled opportunities for reflection, analysis and learning based on the monitoring data and indicator values. Finally, the approach explicitly considers the importance of having a system and data in place that facilitates independent, external evaluation of the project and across the project and countries. ASSUMPTIONS AND RISKS As described in the activity overview, a critical assumption underlying the SURE development hypothesis is that the Building Blocks address the necessary factors to catalyze scaling up renewable energy to large grid-connected systems. While this may seem uncontroversial, scaling up is a complex process that seeks to extend successes from smaller projects where there may be fewer stakeholders with a less diverse set of policy preferences and capabilities to a national context where competing political and economic priorities may stymie success. A second assumption is that economic conditions for renewable energy are stable. Factors that could undermine economic conditions that are favorable for large-scale projects include, discovery of large fossil fuel reserves in the country, substantial changes in the relative prices of renewable energy compared to energy sources that increase GHG emissions, changes to the price of power due to a change in subsidies, and external economic shocks that create fiscal or foreign exchange crises. A political assumption is that changes in the governments of countries receiving assistance will not shift focus away from renewable energy and reducing greenhouse gas emissions toward higher priority fossil fuel-based generation. Other risks include political infighting among key leaders in the electricity sector; 5

slow response from local counterparts to planning and other preparatory activities, limiting what can be achieved during the life of SURE; need for greater than expected capacity building of the local counterparts; lack of private investor confidence in the competitive process; lack of creditworthiness of the buyer or off-taker of the electricity generated by renewable energy; limitations on cost-effective absorption of variable renewable energy due to the electricity market size and the generation mix. PERFORMANCE INDICATORS The performance indicators are a combination of the required reporting indicators, additional GCC Standard Indicators, and gender-specific indicators, see Annex A: Performance Indicator Summary. The required reporting indicators, developed from the GCC Standard Indicators, were provided by USAID in the SURE contract. They were slightly modified via dialogue between SURE staff and USAID and will be formally reported to USAID (i.e. in quarterly and annual reports). Each indicator has a Performance Indicator Reference Sheet (PIRS), Annex B, which provides greater detail on data collection source(s), methodologies, data quality, targets and baselines, and any additional changes as the workplan is further developed. The SURE team will work with USAID to ensure that the reporting templates used will be consistent with USAID’s own reporting needs. In addition to these required indicators, the SURE team has developed a list of custom indicators for potential activities under the seven SURE tasks, see Annex C. As activities become better defined and developed throughout the life of the project, these custom indicators will then be utilized where appropriate. This combination of performance indicators coupled with custom indicators for future activities, will help USAID track the Project’s progress towards accomplishing the key results as well as supporting the learning and adaptation strategy without overburdening USAID with a large flow of monitoring information. The indicators will measure the Project’s progress in tracking inputs and processes, and achieving targeted outputs, outcomes, and project objectives using a wide variety of data from multiple sources. As the indicators relate outputs and outcomes in each task to results, the collected and analyzed data will inform learning and adaptive management processes during and after the project period of performance. The development of workplans and associated tasks will also link inputs, outputs, and outcomes so that USAID and external evaluators can measure project impacts. This MEL Plan follows USAID guidelines for developing its performance and custom indicators. This means that at least one, but no more than three indicators for each result will be used. Custom indicators will be proposed based on initial assessment on if high-quality data can be collected at a reasonable cost; and they will not be considered without first carefully considering the use of a standard indicator. As the discussion of project interventions and countries are ongoing at the time of this report, indicators and targets will be revised, as needed. A revised MEL Plan or a MEL Plan Changes/Adaptive Management tracking document (see Annex D) will be submitted to USAID Note that with the development of First Year Workplan, the indicators will be adjusted as necessary. Scaling up renewable energy using USAID’s Building Blocks approach across multiple countries presents a challenge for MEL, both for the individual country programs as well as the aggregate of all of the country efforts due to countries having their own unique status of contexts and challenges. As such, measurable, reliable, high-quality indicators were selected that can be disaggregated at the country level to provide precise, accurate, and actionable data. This data will be used to inform learning across countries on what works, what doesn’t, and the context in which specific strategies are more or less effective. Annex E, 6

Illustrative Indicators-Disaggregation Summary, provides a table that connects the key results, performance indicators and methods of disaggregation to be used per PIRS as well as relevant additional custom disaggregation. STANDARD AND CUSTOM INDICATORS The list of indicators includes USAID Standard Foreign Assistance indicators (GCC and Gender) and custom indicators. The USAID Climate Change and Development Strategy2: Clean Energy Results framework3 and the Global Climate Change Standard Indicator Handbook and summary sheet informed the selection of indicators as well as the information for the PIRS. All custom indicators conform to USAID criteria for indicators. That means the custom indicators are valid, reliable, timely, precise, have integrity, are practical and useful, and can be measured with appropriate disaggregation, such as gender and location. The PIRS for custom indicators will be included, as utilized, in any revision of the MEL Plan or via MEL Plan Changes tracking document, as it is a living document. SEX-DISAGGREGATED AND GENDER-SENSITIVE INDICATORS In accordance with USAID’s Automated Directives System (ADS) 2054, the MEL Plan includes sex disaggregated and gender sensitive indicators5. Beyond simply counting women and men, we will collect descriptive data and create knowledge of gender-based constraints, opportunities, and effects or leading, participating in and benefiting from the activities. For example, SURE has developed a custom indicator – percentage of legal instruments developed by decision-making boards with female representation – as SURE will aim to have female representation for the development of any legal instruments. The SURE team will track gender inputs, outputs and outcomes, to ensure equitable participation, satisfaction with project interventions and access to project benefits and impacts. The team will emphasize work with female leaders and promote the participation of women in the energy sector, paying attention to the greater participation of women in leadership positions and as agents of change. Analysis on gender implications in policy and project design will also be conducted. Indicator data will be disaggregated by gender wherever possible to capture the mainstreaming of gender concerns not only in terms of individual beneficiaries, but also by project type and substantive focus. Data from both indicators and qualitative monitoring processes will be analyzed with a gender lens. Regarding qualitative data, the SURE team will consider gender aspects of the data, such as: 2 USAID Climate Change and Development Strategy: docs/Pdacs780.pdf USAID Climate Change and Development Strategy: Clean Energy Results framework ken XE5x0JMJ 4 USAID ADS 205: s/1870/205.pdf 5 While the SURE team had several discussions regarding the use of standard indicators from the USAID Gender and Female Empowerment strategy, the SURE team, found that the indicators which were the most strongly considered did not fit the scope of the activities of SURE at this time: (a) GNDR-1: number of legal instruments drafted, proposed or adopted with USG assistance designed to promote gender equality or non-discrimination against women or girls at the national or sub-national level; and (b) GNDR-8: number of persons trained with USG assistance to advance outcomes consistent with gender equality or female empowerment through their roles in public or private sector institutions or organizations). SURE has incorporated the relevant disaggregation into the GCC standard indicators (12-1 and 12-3 respectively), and should appropriate activities arise, SURE will revisit these indicators as needed. 3 7

In formulating options, have differences in the impact of each option on women and men been considered? Have women’s relationship to and potential support for the inputs or processes been fully considered? As needed, the Project will use gender-sensitive methods to collect data on progress and outputs, outcomes and results of gender-focused activities. All monitoring tools will be reviewed from a gender perspective before they are used. The SURE team will also continuously collaborate with USAID for any guidance on incorporating more standard or project-specific gender-sensitive indicators. DATA COLLECTION, STORAGE AND SECURITY Data collection, storage and associated security for internal project purposes will be determined with the SURE project team with input from USAID as needed. The data system can range from a cloud-based file management system such as Google Drive or Egnyte, or a new project-specific data management platform could be developed per the request of USAID. Data collection templates will be developed to ensure consistent collection of data for standardized reporting across countries, tasks, stakeholders (e.g. government, non-governmental organizations, Mission, etc.) and other variables. For example, SURE will use a standardized template for collecting data on training registrants. The illustrative templates for trainee data collection and a standard training sign-in sheet can be found in Annexes F and G respectively. For the performance & custom indicators, available templates will be used to collect and present data. The SURE team will also retain and regularly update documents in a cloud-based storage location, such as Egnyte or Google Drive, approved by the COR and USAID Information Technology team for storing sensitive but unclassified (SBU) and personally identifiable information (PII) documents as well as easily accessible through USAID’s internet protocol and capabilities. This storage will replicate the internal storage used by the SURE team for consistency and efficiency. This storage is intended to aid with easy and efficient access to documents over the course of the activity and especially during data quality assurance (DQA) activities conducted by USAID and evaluations conducted by third-party implementers. The files will be updated as deliverables are submitted, and will be thoroughly reviewed by SURE on a quarterly basis. This file structure will contain the following: deliverables (technical and management related, e.g. white papers) documents mentioned in the workplan, primary supporting documentation for indicators, templates and standard forms for data collection, management, and analysis. and all supplementary documentation (e.g. for determining targets, GHGs, etc.), DATA USE, ANALYSIS AND VISUALIZATION Data will be organized, and presented for efficient and effective review of SURE’s performance. Ongoing review and analysis will aid in extrapolating challenges that may be affecting certain indicators, cross-walk trends and findings across countries, interventions, and other factors. This will also help identify possible opportunities for increasing project effectiveness. Having an intimate understanding of the data and the context from which they are derived will produce findings, conclusions, and lessons learned to help with adaptive management for the project during its period of performance as well as inform future projects and activities. 8

Data visualization tools, such as geographic information systems (GIS) may be used to create interactive visualizations that simplify data into easily understandable graphics and applications that will assist the SURE team, USAID, and other stakeholders with decision making and/or analysis of activities. The SURE team will regularly review and analyze the data collected for the indicators to assess the progress towards key results and overall Project objectives. The analysis will be conducted using Microsoft Excel for the most part, but if a need arises, STATA or SPSS may be used for quantitative analysis. MaxQDA will be available for the analysis of qualitative data from sources such as key informant interviews, surveys, or document reviews. COLLABORATION, LEARNING AND ADAPTATION Following the principles of Collaboration, Learning and Adapting (CLA), the SURE team will embrace a systematic and cyclic process to promote continuous, evidence-based learning founded on sound, reliable, and timely project-based data. All project data will follow a six-step CLA process as displayed in Figure 2. Step 1 begins with articulation of the development hypothesis. The SURE Results Framework (Figure 1), illustrates the project’s logical and causal linkages between anticipated outputs, outcomes, and impacts. Only after stakeholders, project staff, and our client achieve consensus and a shared vision of the immediate, mid-term, and long-term results can activities that promote and achieve these results be designed (and adapted as the project matures through time). Figure 2: The 6-step CLA Process Learning Step 2 is monitoring the CLA process through routine and systematic collection of both qualitative and quantitative data. The technical staff will support and triangulate field-based data with existing data from counterpart governments (e.g., national and municipal governments, ministries), donor programs and relevant international organizations. Step 3 of the CLA process is evaluating the strength of the data collected. This step looks at the validity, accuracy, reliability, and timeliness of data to ensure that it correctly reflects the project’s success. Only after the evaluation of project data can Step 4 take place: analysis. Analysis allows the project to understand how aggregate and disaggregate results ripple across project results and components. Step 5 of the CLA process is reporting and dissemination. The SURE team will provide project information to USAID and other stakeholders primarily through progress reports. An important and often missing process of a sound monitoring and evaluation system is Step 6: collaboration. The team will provide the space for USAID, program staff, and stakeholders to collectively celebrate successes, identify innovative activities to achieve maximum impact, increase sustainability and local ownership, and identify qualitative success stories. The SURE team will pause regularly and reflect on information assembled from all available sources using a CLA approach. The core SURE team will take a time-out from regular duties every quarter to review 9

and reflect on ME

MEL APPROACH The purpose of this MEL Plan is to describe how the SURE team will monitor and evaluation the Project. The plan also describes the processes that will be used to perform MEL throughout the life of the project. The steps involved in the design of the MEL Plan included the review of the developed and agreed upon

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