Current Status Of Coal In India - Energy Information Administration

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Current Status of Coal in India Jitendra Roychoudhury EIA Energy Conference, Washington DC - 07/12/2016

Introduction: KAPSARC’s mission and structure EIA Energy Conference 2016

World Coal Markets : The Changing Global Landscape for Coal EIA Energy Conference 2016 An independent non-profit research center focused on energy economics & policy Advance understanding of energy economics and act as a catalyst for dialogue, charting a path to better welfare for societies, locally and globally. Strategic Objectives Develop sustainable economic frameworks that lead to: Lower societal costs of energy supply Higher value created from energy consumption Better alignment between energy policy objectives and outcomes 3

World Coal Markets : The Changing Global Landscape for Coal EIA Energy Conference 2016 Research Programs and Focus Areas 4

EIA Energy Conference 2016 World Coal Markets : The Changing Global Landscape for Coal Discussion Papers Workshop Briefs Tools and Datasets A KAPSARC research paper A short, 7-10 page, non-attributional, summary of a KAPSARC Energy Workshop Databases (such as policy dB, weather etc.) or “tools” such as models (e.g. CGE model source code or models for collective decisionmaking processes) 5

Current Status of Coal in India EIA Energy Conference 2016

EIA Energy Conference 2016 World Coal Markets : The Changing Global Landscape for Coal Role of Coal Primary Energy Mix (2013) (Mtoe,%) Coal continues to be a major source of energy for India. Fossil fuels are the major drivers of the economy. Biomass still used significantly in rural areas. Others 201.50, 26% Coal, 341.00, 44% Nuclear, 7.75, 1% Gas, 46.50, 6% Oil, 178.25, 23% Source: WEO 2015 7

EIA Energy Conference 2016 World Coal Markets : The Changing Global Landscape for Coal Coal Usage Across Sectors Raw Coal Usage (Million Tons, %) Power sector consumes the most. Policy issues that affect power sector from generation, transmission, transport and fuel mix will impact coal demand growth. Cement, while a large consumer, tends to switch to alternatives such as pet coke when coal prices are high. They use cheaper alternatives to reduce operation costs. Others, 174.22, 21% Cement, 37.95, 5% Electricity, 527.1, 64% Steel and Sponge Iron, 81.05, 10% Steel and sponge iron do not have alternatives to their coal requirements. Source: MOSPI Energy Statistics 2014/15 (Provisional) 8

EIA Energy Conference 2016 World Coal Markets : The Changing Global Landscape for Coal Fuel Mix in Power Sector Utilities Installed Capacity (GW, %) Biased toward coal, given domestic coal resources available. Hydro & Renewables, 85.632, 28% Renewables have been growing strongly over the past few years. Recent policy focus due to this confidence. Gas is constrained by availability and nuclear suffers due to fuel availability and long build times. Coal, 186.242, 62% Nuclear, 5.78, 2% Diesel, 0.918, 0% Gas, 24.508, 8% Source: CEA, May 2016 9

EIA Energy Conference 2016 World Coal Markets : The Changing Global Landscape for Coal 7 6 Price (INR/kWh) 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Net Generation (GWh) Coal Gas Hydro (Source: Central Electricity Authority- Rate of Sale of Power 2013-14), KAPSARC Analysis) 1 US 67.87 INR* Coal - based power plants compete on price and scale. 10

EIA Energy Conference 2016 World Coal Markets : The Changing Global Landscape for Coal Coal-based Generation Grows, while PLF declines 100,000 90% 90,000 80% 80,000 70% 70,000 60,000 50% PLF Generation (GWh) 60% 50,000 40% 40,000 30% 30,000 20% 20,000 10% 10,000 Hydro (lhs) Gas (lhs) Coal (lhs) Gas Utilization (rhs) Apr-16 Jan-16 Oct-15 Jul-15 Apr-15 Jan-15 Oct-14 Jul-14 Apr-14 Jan-14 Oct-13 Jul-13 Apr-13 Jan-13 Oct-12 Jul-12 Apr-12 Jan-12 Oct-11 Jul-11 Apr-11 Jan-11 Oct-10 Jul-10 Apr-10 Jan-10 Oct-09 Jul-09 Apr-09 Jan-09 Oct-08 Jul-08 0% Apr-08 - Coal Utilization (rhs) (Source: CEA, KAPSARC Analysis) Financially strapped State Electricity Boards not able to procure electricity to meet demand. 11

EIA Energy Conference 2016 World Coal Markets : The Changing Global Landscape for Coal Annual Coal Production and Import (Million Tons) 900 40.00 800 35.00 700 30.00 600 500 20.00 400 Imports % Million Tons 25.00 15.00 300 10.00 200 5.00 100 0 0.00 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 Domestic Production (lhs) 2010-2011 2011-12 Import (lhs) 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 Imports (%) (rhs) Source: HDR, ICMW Strong domestic production, import growth muted 12

EIA Energy Conference 2016 World Coal Markets : The Changing Global Landscape for Coal Monthly Coal Production and Import 80.00 70.00 60.00 50.00 40.00 30.00 20.00 10.00 - Imported Coal (Mt) Domestic Production (Mt) Mine Stockpiles (Mt) Source: ICMW, HDR Salva Imports have declined as domestic production increased and mine stockpiles grew 13

Future of Coal in India EIA Energy Conference 2016

EIA Energy Conference 2016 World Coal Markets : The Changing Global Landscape for Coal Thermal Coal Production – Grade wise (Million Tons) 600 500 400 Grade A Grade B Grade C Grade D Grade E Grade F Grade G Ungraded GCV ( kcal/kg) 6401 6400 GCV 5801 5800 GCV 5401 5400 GCV 4801 4800 GCV 4201 4200 GCV 3601 3600 GCV 3201 3200 GCV 1100 300 200 100 0 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 Grade A 2007-08 Grade B Grade C 2008-09 Grade D 2009-10 Grade E 2010-11 Grade F Grade G 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 Ungraded (Source: Coal Directory of India ,KAPSARC Analysis) Declining coal quality and the need for emission controls. Impetus for imports 15

World Coal Markets : The Changing Global Landscape for Coal EIA Energy Conference 2016 Cement Cement plants are located near demand centers and limestone mines. Higher CV fuels can be transported further inland. Hence, imports of pet coke and coal from overseas. Location of cement plants on the western and southern regions means low CV domestic coal is expensive to transport. Ports on the western and southern regions facilitate in imports. Economic growth will mean higher cement production and coal requirement. 16

World Coal Markets : The Changing Global Landscape for Coal EIA Energy Conference 2016 Power Power plants widely distributed across the country. Need to be near load centers and coal mines. Predominantly subcritical power plants. Only recently have super critical power plants been commissioned. Ultra Supercritical is still in single digits Domestic coal quality often responsible for technology choices. 17

EIA Energy Conference 2016 World Coal Markets : The Changing Global Landscape for Coal Super Critical Power Plants Sub Critical Power Plants (Source: KAPSARC Analysis) Sub Critical Power Plants (more than 25 years old) Old sub critical power plants need to be replaced with super critical plants. Poor quality coal meant that value could be better captured by pit-head based power plants. 18

Policy Implications EIA Energy Conference 2016

EIA Energy Conference 2016 World Coal Markets : The Changing Global Landscape for Coal Policy Implications Coal washeries being set up to wash poor quality coal. Progress has been slow due to commercial reasons. Renovation and modernization of sub critical units still seen as a cost effective mechanism to maintain boiler fleet. Debt recast and electrification push should see states becoming more prudent, financially. Moves to reform the coal market should see a jump in supply. Push for coal production expected to increase supply, however, quality concerns mean imported coal will have a market. Rationalisation of coal linkages and supply will see more efficient movement of coal Use of NTPC for solar bundling/counter party risk will support coal generation Renewables push is ironically triggering more coal based generation. 20

World Coal Markets : The Changing Global Landscape for Coal EIA Energy Conference 2016 Conclusions Cheap coal remains critical to Indian economic growth Recent higher production hasn’t been absorbed Changes in power sector, the biggest consumer of coal, will impact growth Policy changes in boiler fleet, mining and transportation will enable India to use coal more effectively 21

Jitendra Roychoudhury jitendra.roychoudhury@kapsarc.org T 966 11 2903181 www.kapsarc.org Thank You

EIA Energy Conference 2016 World Coal Markets : The Changing Global Landscape for Coal Coal continues to be a major source of energy for India. Fossil fuels are the major drivers of the economy. Biomass still used significantly in rural areas. Role of Coal Coal, 341.00, 44% Oil, 178.25, 23% Gas, 46.50, 6% Nuclear, 7.75, 1% Others .

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