Zdr/Kdp Behavior In Potentially Tornadic Storms - National Weather Service
Zdr/Kdp Behavior in PotentiallyTornadic StormsMICHAEL L. JUREWICZ, SR. AND MICHAEL EVANSJOHNSON CITY/BINGHAMTON, NYANDCHRISTOPHER M. GITROPLEASANT HILL/KANSAS CITY, MOGREAT LAKES OPERATIONAL METEOROLOGY WORKSHOPGRAND RAPIDS, MIAUGUST 26, 2015
Outline Previous Research Study Results Recent Supercell Example Preliminary Conclusions / Future Work
Previous Research
Drop Size Sorting / Zdr ArcFrom Romine, et.al, 2008* Enhanced Kdp (blue) getsdisplaced left of enhanced Zdr(orange) via preferential size sortingFrom Kumjian andRyzhkov, 2009* Conceptual schematic of differinghydrometeor descents and Zdr arcing
Conceptual Model (Kumjian, et al. 2011)
Results of Northeastern U.S. Study
Event Cases: 42 total26 Tornadic and 16 non-tornadic
* All 42 storms in thedatabase represented* Note the typicallymuch larger horizontalseparation for tornadicstorms (red)* For the non-tornadicstorms (blue), littleseparation was typicallyseen (data points tightlyclustered around thecenter of the plot)Polar Plot of Kdp maxima (red for tornadicstorms and blue for non-tornadic storms)versus Zdr maxima (center point)
* Looking at /- 3volume scans from T 0* T 0 is either the timeof initial tornadotouchdown or tornadowarning issuance (nullevents)* Note the largedifferences in separationmagnitude between T-2and T 0* Separation distancesfor tornado events:2.5 - 5 nmi (4-8 km)* Separation distancesfor non-tornado events:0.5 - 1 nmi (1-2 km)Horizontal Separations (nmi, yaxis) of Zdr and Kdp maxima overtime
* Once again, looking at /- 3 volume scans fromT 0* T 0 is either the time ofinitial tornado touchdownor tornado warningissuance (null events)* Rotational velocitycouplet seems to spike inintensity near T 0 fortornadic storms and T-1for non-tornadic storms* Tornado events: mean V: 70 kts* Non-tornado events:mean V: 54 ktsNote: V maxinbound maxoutbound Trends of Maximum Gate-GateShear (kt, y-axis (Storm RelativeMotion)) over time
* Lower-tropospheric Vvs. Zdr/Kdp horizontalseparation distances* Improved ability todiscriminate betweentornadic and nontornadic storms, whennewer dual-polarizationand more traditionalvelocity techniques areboth consideredUpdated nomogram based on 42events in present study
Supercell Example (22 May 2014 near Albany,NY)
Zdr Arc Development (Slide 1)Z at 1923z (t-3)Zdr at 1923z (t-3)
Zdr Arc Development (Slide 2)Z at 1928z (t-2)Zdr at 1928z (t-2)* Zdrmagnitudesincreased in theZdr arc regionbetween t-3 andt-2
Zdr/Kdp Separation (Slide 1)Zdr at 1923z (t-3)Kdp at 1923z (t-3)Zdr Max
Zdr/Kdp Separation (Slide 2)Zdr at 1928z (t-2)Kdp at 1928z (t-2)Zdr Max* Zdr surges aheadof Kdp maxbetween t-3 and t-2
RFD/Hook Echo (Slide 1)Z at 1928z (t-2)Zdr at 1928z (t-2)Hook EchoRegion
RFD/Hook Echo (Slide 2)Z at 1933z (t-1)Zdr at 1933z (t-1)Hook EchoRegion* Zdr decreasesin the hook echoregion betweent-2 and t-1
RFD/Hook Echo (Slide 3)Cross-section axisV x-s at 1933z (t-1)*RFDregion
RFD/Hook Echo (Slide 4)V x-s at 1933z (t-1)Zdr x-s at 1933z (t-1)* Zdrminima inRFDregion
RFD/Hook Echo (Slide 5)V x-s at 1933z (t-1)Kdp x-s at 1933z (t-1)* Kdpmaxima inRFDregion
Conclusions/Future Work
Main Take Home Points Reliable indicators just prior to tornadogenesis, especially for supercells(typically t-3 to t-1, and often before you see “bright and tight” couplet): Zdr maxima surges ahead of Kdp maxima, with increasing horizontal separations (Kdp lagsback to the west)Zdr flare up in the arc/inflow regionZdr decrease in the hook echo regionHigher Kdp gates becoming more prevalent in the RFD region (downward transport ?) Warmer more buoyant RFD’s ? Cursory evidence suggests tornadic QLCS development could be somewhatdifferent Higher Zdr gates noted S-SE of tornadic vortex Cooler drier RFD’s still sufficient for tornadogenesis ?Zdr arc development seems less important Reliable indicators just prior to tornado dissipation, or for non-tornadicstorms: Relatively low Zdr and/or decreasing Zdr in the inflow/arc regionZdr becoming more spread out/homogeneous across the storm cell Tornado undercutting ?Less Zdr/Kdp maxima separation over time
Future Work Publish results Near-future submission to W&F Develop methods to make Zdr/Kdp signatures easierto recognize in real-time Better visualization needed in operational setting Better color curves for Zdr (4-5 db) and Kdp (2-3 deg/km)Future WDTB/academia collaboration likely Continue to evaluate these processes in comingconvective seasons
Questions ?
Main Take Home Points Reliable indicators just prior to tornadogenesis, especially for supercells (typically t-3 to t-1, and often before you see "bright and tight" couplet): Zdr maxima surges ahead of Kdp maxima, with increasing horizontal separations (Kdp lags back to the west) Zdr flare up in the arc/inflow region Zdr decrease in the hook echo region
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Fig. 4: FTIR Spectrum of Magnesium Chloride Added KDP Crystal In magnesium chloride added KDP, this peak is shifted to 3952.07 cm-1. Similarly, the O-H vibrations of water due to P-OH group pf KDP are observed at 3896 and 3782 cm-1. In In magnesium chloride added KDP, thes
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combined polarimetric estimator that uses KDP, ZDR, and Ze, an estimator that uses KDP alone for equilibrium drop shapes, and different Ze–R relations were applied to the 15 rain events observed with the NOAA X-band transportable polarimetric radar during the eight-week field
Schedule Margin RBI Project - PPBE 16 8/23 RFO Released 5/5 JPSS-2 SRR 10/1 JPSS-2 PDR 10/3 JPSS-2 CDR 11/1 Potential Accelerated 1/1 On-Dock Need Date Accelerated JPSS-2 S/C I&T 7/21 LRD 5/16 ATP Contract Requirement: Instrument DDT&E 54months 11/16 10/29 ISRR 4/7 IPDR 2/1 ICDR 7/17 IPER 3/7 ISAR KDP-B KDP-C KDP-D 3/7 11/16 1/1 254 days .
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