Meeting Europe’s Demand For Materials In An Energy .

Industrial energy efficiencyMeeting Europe’s demand for materials inan energy efficient way16/05/2013Maarten NeelisChalmers Energy Conference 2013

Outline Demand for materials continues to grow, also inEurope The energy intensity of material production canstill go down significantly, but there are limits The challenge of 80-95% GHG emission reductionin Europe, a fact based discussion on what toexpect from industry is necessary2 ECOFYS 16/05/2013 Maarten Neelis

Demand for materials will continue to grow Source: Energy Technology Perspectives, 2012, OECD/IEA, 2012The IEA projects that:Crude steel production will grow from 1.2 Gt in 2010 to 2.4-2.9 Gt in 2050Cement production will grow from 3.0 Gt in 2010 to 4.4-4.5 Gt in 2050Ethylene production will grow from 0.1 Gt in 2010 to 0.3-0.4 Gt in 2050Etc. Etc.3 ECOFYS 16/05/2013 Maarten Neelis

Still billions of people on the growing part of the IOU curveApparent crude steel consumption per capita 1970-2003. Source: Neelis and Patel, Long term production,energy consumption and CO2 scenarios for the worldwide iron and steel industry, Utrecht University, 20064 ECOFYS 16/05/2013 Maarten Neelis

And Europe’s consumption is produced elsewhere The net change in territorial emissions (1990-2008) together with the change in the net emission transfer between eachcountry and non-Annex B countries (1990-2008). Source: Peters et al., growth in emission transfers via international tradefrom 1990 -2008, PNAS, published ahead of print 25 April, 20115 ECOFYS 16/05/2013 Maarten Neelis

An example: Europe’s chemical industrySource: European chemistry for growth, CEFIC, 2013, supported by Ecofys6 ECOFYS 16/05/2013 Maarten Neelis

How about the energy intensity, some examplesSpecific energy usein GJ / t of productCurrentEmergingThermodynamicminimumPrimary steel19-40157Ammonia33-4725193-62.51Cement Energy efficiency potentials by shifting all plants to current best availabletechnologies is about 30% of current energy use Emerging technologies have the potential to close part of the remaining gapwith the thermodynamic minima But it is difficult to imagine a potential improvement in energy intensityimprovement beyond 50% towards 2050 7 ECOFYS 16/05/2013 Maarten Neelis

The picture for steelGHG intensity of steel production. Source: ongoing research . (therefore not shown in this public version)8 ECOFYS 16/05/2013 Maarten Neelis

Recycling is great, but it will take some time .Global share of scrap input into steel production towards 2100 under four scenarios. Source: Neelis and Patel,Long term production, energy consumption and CO2 scenarios for the worldwide iron and steel industry, UtrechtUniversity, 20069 ECOFYS 16/05/2013 Maarten Neelis

The European chemical industry towards 2050 – energy Upper lines reflect energy use with projected production and 2010 energy intensitySource: European chemistry for growth, CEFIC, 2013, supported by Ecofys10 ECOFYS 16/05/2013 Maarten Neelis

The European chemical industry towards 2050 – emissions Upper lines reflect GHG emissions with projected production and 2010 GHG emissionintensity; Emissions are scope 1 and 2 onlySource: European chemistry for growth, CEFIC, 2013, supported by Ecofys11 ECOFYS 16/05/2013 Maarten Neelis

Snapshots from other industry roadmaps - ceramicsIllustrative model for CO2 emissions reduction between1990 and 2050: A excluding and B including electrification.Source: Paving the way to 2050, the ceramic industryroadmap, Cerame-Unie, 201212 ECOFYS 16/05/2013 Maarten Neelis

Snapshots from other industry roadmaps - paperSource: Unfold the future. The forest fibre industry 2050 roadmap to a low-carbon bio-economy, CEPI, 201113 ECOFYS 16/05/2013 Maarten Neelis

And the industry projection by the EU .Source: Impact assessment to “A roadmap for moving to a competitive low carbon economy in 2050, EuropeanCommission, 201114 ECOFYS 16/05/2013 Maarten Neelis

Some elements of the post 2020 policy debate Production versus consumption based policies, what is the evidencefor carbon leakage and what to do to avoid it (slide 5 and 6) ? What is a realistic abatement path for Europe’s industry, given stockturnover and technical possibilities (slide 10 – 13) ? Innovation: how to bridge the gap from current BAT to emergingtechnologies to thermodynamic minima (slide 7-9) ? Beyond energy efficiency – what is the role of CCS / fuel shift andelectrification towards deep GHG reductions beyond 2030 (slide 1113) ? The link to resource efficiency and recycling – how can we keep ourresource demand under control (slide 4 and 9) ?15 ECOFYS 16/05/2013 Maarten Neelis

Thank you for your attentionEcofys Netherlands B.V.Kanaalweg 15G3526 KL UtrechtThe NetherlandsT: 31 (0)30 662-3241E: m.neelis@ecofys.comI: www.ecofys.com16 ECOFYS 16/05/2013 Maarten Neelis

Some background to Ecofys

Ecofys domains of expertiseEnergy & CarbonEfficiencyBuildings18RenewableEnergyEnergy Systems& MarketsWind EnergyIntegrated alProcessesSolar EnergySupply ChainsHSE forrenewables ECOFYS 16/05/2013 Maarten NeelisEnergy &Climate PolicyPolicy Design &EvaluationPower Systems &MarketsMarket basedMechanismsConventionalEnergy SystemsInternationalClimate Policies

Ecofys-Industrial Processes and you19 ECOFYS 16/05/2013 Maarten Neelis

Source: Energy Technology Perspectives, 2012, OECD/IEA, 2012 The IEA projects that: Crude steel production will grow from 1.2 Gt in 2010 to 2.4-2.9 Gt in 2050 Cement production will grow from 3.0 Gt in 2010 to 4.4-4.5 Gt in 2050 Ethylene production will grow from 0.1